We're getting down to the nitty gritty, the big games are starting to ramp up. Let's look at the bubble as of yesterday and see which big games are on the calendar today.
Update: So far, the big upsets are coming close but not happening. Cases in point:
Texas Tech 76, Baylor 74
Louisville 75, Stanford 73
Marquette 89, Xavier 87
First the hopefuls below the bubble. This is our First Four Out and Next Four Out, and those still playing need wins the most:
At-lg %Change Total Seed Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds -1dy -3dy 1seed %Odds Now -1dy -3dy 48. Texas SEC 18-14 46.1 +14.8 +11.8 0.0 46.4 49. Drake MVC 30-3 44.7 -2.3 -4.1 0.0 100.0 12 12 12 50. North Carolina ACC 21-12 43.5 +1.2 -1.8 0.0 48.4 51. Colorado St. MWC 22-9 43.0 +0.8 -1.2 0.0 47.6 52. UC Irvine BW 27-5 36.4 -0.2 -5.7 0.0 53.2 53. Ohio St. B10 17-15 32.7 -10.0 -13.0 0.0 32.7 54. San Francisco WCC 24-9 25.1 -1.3 -4.0 0.0 25.1 55. Santa Clara WCC 20-12 23.2 -0.2 +2.8 0.0 23.2
Texas just improved their lot by...a lot in beating Vanderbilt on Wednesday, making the Longhorns First Team Out—as long as the bubble holds where it is. Texas is playing Texas A&M as we speak and they probably need that win to get to the right side of the cut-line. Update: Texas won in double overtime, meaning there might be 14 SEC teams in the tournament.
North Carolina is another team on the verge of a bid and playing as we speak. Beating Notre Dame helped a bit, but Texas clearly passed them in our book. The Tar Heels have another winnable game against Wake Forest, who is far below the bubble right now at 17%. The Deacs would still have work to do with a win—they'd probably have to beat Duke—but for UNC, a win probably gets them over the hump assuming a loss to the Blue Devils follows. Update: North Carolina beat Wake Forest 68-59. A loss from Texas would have really helped them! Things are pretty much going their way otherwise.
Colorado State got the support of Joe Lunardi but they need more than that. They play Nevada late tonight and need a win there, and probably another one after that to be over the top.
That's it for the wanna-bes: Drake is already in; UC Irvine doesn't play until tomorrow; Ohio State is stuck at 17-15 after losing to Iowa last night; and San Francisco and Santa Clara both lost in the West Coast Conference tournament.
Now the borderline teams. They don't necessarily need a win, but they can't afford a loss, either.
At-lg %Change Total Seed Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds -1dy -3dy 1seed %Odds Now -1dy -3dy 42. San Diego St. MWC 21-8 59.5 -1.3 -1.3 0.0 64.7 11 11 11 43. Xavier BE 21-10 58.0 -1.2 -1.2 0.0 61.3 11p 11p 11p 44. Baylor B12 19-13 56.4 +9.3 +9.3 0.0 58.5 11p 12p 12p 45. VCU A10 25-6 50.6 +0.7 -1.3 0.0 67.1 11 11 11 46. West Virginia B12 19-13 46.9 -7.3 -8.3 0.0 46.9 12p 11p 11p 47. Boise St. MWC 22-9 46.9 -0.2 -1.2 0.0 52.2 12p 12p 12p
The biggest bubble game on Thursday is between two teams at this level: San Diego State vs. Boise State. The Aztecs have been "assumed" to be in all year, but when you get right down to it they aren't safe. Boise State has been just outside everyone else's seedings for a while, and they're our Last Team In at the moment. And that's with a bubble that doesn't shrink. This is a really key game for both teams, tipping off late in the afternoon. Update: Boise State upset the Aztecs 62-52, leaving both teams in limbo. San Diego State is fortunate that the teams below them, Xavier and Baylor, both lost and West Virginia is out of the ACC tournament and won't be adding to their résumé. Boise State will play New Mexico next.
Baylor is holding on as a play-in team after beating Kansas State yesterday but probably needs to beat Texas Tech to feel safe. Xavier is in the same situation regarding their game vs. Marquette early in the afternoon. Update: Xavier lost 89-87 and should survive, but if the bubble shrinks they're in trouble.
VCU doesn't play until tomorrow and West Virginia, having lost to Colorado, hangs on as a 12-seed providing things don't shift too much.
Safe or not? Teams on the bubble borderline
At-lg %Change Total Seed Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds -1dy -3dy 1seed %Odds Now -1dy -3dy 35. New Mexico MWC 25-6 77.4 -0.3 -1.3 0.0 84.4 9 9 9 36. Oklahoma SEC 20-12 74.5 +10.3 +9.3 0.0 74.5 9 10 10 37. Connecticut BE 22-9 70.2 -0.2 -1.2 0.0 74.1 10 9 9 38. Creighton BE 22-9 66.9 -2.0 -3.0 0.0 70.0 10 10 10 39. Utah St. MWC 25-6 66.1 -2.8 -3.8 0.0 72.6 10 10 10 40. UC San Diego BW 28-4 62.9 -0.5 -2.2 0.0 79.6 10 10 10 41. Indiana B10 19-12 61.6 -1.0 -2.0 0.0 62.2 11 11 11
Indiana is the key team here. Having beaten Ohio State yesterday the Hoosiers faced Oregon this afternoon and lost, 72-59. It probably leaves them a play-in team but safe unless the bubble shrinks too much.
New Mexico is probably in good shape no matter what happens, but what about Utah State? Both play today (vs. San Jose State and vs. UNLV), with the Aggies having to play a road game in Las Vegas. Update: New Mexico beat SJSU;
Oklahoma probably sealed their bid with yesterday's win over Georgia, but beating Kentucky tonight couldn't hurt.
UConn and Creighton are surprisingly low on the Dance Chance's radar. The Huskies play Villanova, who is a bit below the bubble at 13%, while the Jays go up against DePaul who is at 0% for an at-large.
UC San Diego is a 10-seed right now per the Dance Chance, higher than anyone at the Bracket Matrix has them. So they might even need to win the Big West tournament.
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