Half a week left before the Major conference tournaments start. Let's look at the biggest bubble games left in the next few days ending Sunday, March 9, 2025:
Pure bubble games
These are games between two teams, both on the bubble. High importance, but how much can be written in stone by the results?
Oklahoma (51.0%) at Texas (45.5%) - Saturday
Ohio State (52.5%) at Indiana (49.0%) - Saturday
Colorado State (37.8%) at Boise State (49.8%) - Friday
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total Rank Team Conf Curr Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev 41. VCU A10 25-5 26-5 55.1 -3.1 0.0 0.0 65.0 11 11 42. San Diego St. MWC 20-8 21-8 53.5 -8.6 0.0 0.0 56.8 11 10 43. Baylor B12 18-12 18-13 53.0 +3.2 0.0 0.0 54.0 11 12p 44. Ohio St. B10 17-13 18-13 52.5 -1.0 0.0 0.0 53.4 11p 11p 45. Oklahoma SEC 18-12 18-13 51.0 +14.0 0.0 0.0 51.4 11p 46. Boise St. MWC 22-8 23-8 49.8 -3.3 0.0 0.0 52.6 12p 11p 47. West Virginia B12 18-12 19-12 49.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 12p 12p 48. Indiana B10 18-12 18-13 49.0 -8.8 0.0 0.0 49.6 11 49. Texas SEC 17-13 18-13 45.5 +12.0 0.0 0.0 46.1 50. North Carolina ACC 20-11 20-12 45.3 +3.1 0.0 0.0 47.6 51. Drake MVC 27-3 27-3 41.0 -6.6 0.0 0.0 54.0 12 12 52. Colorado St. MWC 21-9 21-10 37.8 -3.6 0.0 0.0 40.5 53. Santa Clara WCC 20-11 20-11 32.8 -6.1 0.0 0.0 38.0 54. UC Irvine BW 25-5 27-5 32.3 -6.2 0.0 0.0 41.5 55. Nebraska B10 17-13 18-13 32.2 -5.9 0.0 0.0 32.9
- Oklahoma at Texas: The Sooners just got back on the board as a play-in team following their 96-84 upset win over Missouri. The Longhorns got a huge win, too, beating Mississippi State on the road in overtime; that put them in striking distance in the First Four Out. Now one of them is going to get a further boost while the loser will languish below the waterline heading into the SEC tournament. Odds slightly favor Texas as the home team. The upshot is that the winner might only have to win one game in the SEC tournament while the loser will need two wins. That's a big difference in the SEC tournament, as the first round games are very winnable, the 2nd round not so much.
- Ohio State at Indiana: Ohio State is one spot above the "projected" waterline after the bubble shrinks, and Indiana is Last Team Out by the "current" waterline. The Buckeyes beat Nebraska in double overtime to hold onto their 11-seed, while Indiana lost at Oregon to lose theirs. We have the Buckeyes a super-tight favorite. An Indiana win would put both teams in limbo going into the Big Ten tournament, where they will be the 9- and 10-seeds depending on who wins. The 9-seed gets a bye, the 10-seed does not and will play one of six teams, all beatable, then face Illinois or Oregon in an attempt to get a 2nd win they'll most likely need. The winner (the 9-seed) will face either Illinois or Oregon right away, so is that any better? The only difference is, the winner here probably has only one loss from this date forward, the loser has two. Other than that, not much will be cleared up.
- Colorado State at Boise State: The Rams are in the Dance Chance's Second Four Out but don't have much traction elsewhere. So beating Boise State—who is Last Team Out in the Bracket Matrix, and in the Dance Chance is Last Four In (current waterline), or First Four Out (by the projected shrunken bubble waterline)—would help put their name in the hat. Maybe. Both teams are on win streaks and need this one for another quality win. Boise is a pretty solid favorite.
Power games
These could launch a team upward quite a bit, but the odds are not good.
Baylor (53.0%) vs. Houston (100%) - Saturday
North Carolina (45.3%) vs. Duke (100%) - Saturday
- Baylor vs. Houston: Baylor beat TCU on Tuesday and isn't in bad shape, with most putting them at a 10-seed. Still, few have the Bears as a lock, but that could change if they beat Houston on Saturday in Waco. The Bears lack really big wins (though they have six Quad-1 wins, Kansas is the only win that stands out as major). For Houston this is about getting a 1-seed; you could say they're on the 1-seed bubble and this is a pretty important game in that regard. A Baylor loss makes the Big Twelve tournament pretty important for the Bears, but they'll be the 7- or 8-seed with a bye, and face a team they should be able to beat to pick up a win.
- North Carolina vs. Duke: Duke's not on the 1-seed bubble, instead they're pretty much a lock in that regard. But North Carolina still needs help getting above the waterline. Five wins in a row have the Tar Heels in the First Four Out, assuming the bubble doesn't shrink much. A win over Duke would put them firmly above going into the ACC tournament. A loss means they'll have work to do in the conference tournament; UNC will probably be the 5-seed, which is better than getting the 4-seed since they'll have a winnable game early instead of a double bye. But beating Duke would trump getting a minor ACC tournament win.
Bubble teams vs. Long Shots
Teams on the bubble face teams with little hope
VCU (55.1%) vs. Dayton (15.7%) - Friday
West Virginia (49.2%) vs. UCF (0.9%) - Saturday
Nebraska (32.2%) vs. Iowa (0.6%) - Sunday
- VCU vs. Dayton: VCU is in the Last Eight In at best, or the Last Four In by the projected (smaller) bubble. Either way, they're expected to win the Atlantic 10 tournament and have already sewed up the top seed. Beating Dayton would give them some more leeway in case they falter in the tourney. The Flyers are much further below the bubble at 15.7% chance for an at-large berth, and much of that hope rests on beating Dayton on the road. That alone won't get them into the prime consideration region, but it would set them up for a tournament run that could. Thing is, it would also likely give them a double-bye that would only allow for two more wins if they lose in the final, and their at-large numbers might not add up. The Flyers might need to win the conference tournament, but on the other hand, the Rams might be in that same boat.
- West Virginia vs. UCF: The Mountaineers beat Utah Tuesday night, a result that kept them exactly on the waterline as Last Team In, a 12-seed play-in team, so they need every win they can get. UCF is next up, and the Knights are at just under 1.0% at-large odds following a win over Oklahoma State. Upsetting the Mountaineers won't change that very much, but it would keep hope alive that a 4-1 run in the Big Twelve tournament might make the Selection Committee consider a 21-15 team on a hot streak. West Virginia is on the boundary of getting a first-round bye in the tournament, but they might not want it as they could get two wins instead of one as a 9-seed rather than the 8-seed.
- Nebraska vs. Iowa: The Cornhuskers have lost four in a row and their tourney odds have dwindled in lock-step. Now at just 32.2% after their double-overtime loss to Ohio State, they need to beat Iowa not just to improve those odds, but to make sure they even get into the Big Ten tournament. In other words, lose to Iowa and Nebraska is judged as a 17-14 team with a 7-13 Big Ten record. Win and they are an 11- or 12-seed in the conference tournament and can get another win, making them 19-14 or better. Big difference! For 15-14 Iowa, beating the Cornhuskers wouldn't help their 0.6% Dance Chance odds much nor insure a place in the Big Ten tournament—unless they also beat Michigan State Thursday night, in which case suddenly the 17-14 Hawks have new life, and can fantasize about a 4-1 run that gets them an at-large bid. But if you're hoping against that much hope, why not just win the whole tournament and get an auto-bid?
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