Two weeks before Selection Sunday and here's our top eight teams:
Auburn is all but a lock not just for a 1-seed but the overall top seed. Their 30-point win over Ole Miss and 94-78 road win over Kentucky would be many teams' best wins of the season, and they did it just last week. Florida, who most people see as a 2-seed but is neck and neck here with Duke for the 2nd 1-seed spot. The Gators lost to Georgia but beat Texas A&M 89-70 on Saturday. They'll need a strong showing in the SEC tournament to get a 1-seed given the competition inside and outside the league. The Blue Devils probably have a 1-seed sewed up in everyone's mind, and 37- and 35- point beatdowns of Miami and Florida State didn't hurt. Finally, Tennessee beat Alabama on Saturday 79-76 on a game-winning three to give them a slight lead over the Tide in the 1-seed sweepstakes.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total Rank Team Conf Curr Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev 1. Auburn SEC 27-2 29-2 100.0 0.0 99.4 +0.2 100.0 1 1 2. Florida SEC 25-4 26-5 100.0 0.0 88.9 -0.1 100.0 1 1 3. Duke ACC 26-3 28-3 100.0 0.0 85.6 +3.0 100.0 1 1 4. Tennessee SEC 24-5 26-5 100.0 0.0 59.1 +0.6 100.0 1 1 5. Alabama SEC 23-6 24-7 100.0 +0.1 44.2 -2.1 100.0 2 2 6. Houston B12 25-4 27-4 100.0 +0.1 17.8 +2.6 100.0 2 2 7. Michigan St. B10 24-5 26-5 >99.9 0.0 2.6 +1.8 >99.9 2 2 8. Kentucky SEC 19-10 20-11 >99.9 0.0 1.7 -3.9 >99.9 2 3
That race probably is exactly as close as we have it above, and it probably is for the last 1-seed. But at this point the general feeling is that a 1-seed is Houston's to lose; in other words, swap Florida and Houston above, with Auburn and Duke 1-seed locks, the three SEC teams fighting for the remaining 2 spots. The Cougars are finally racking up some big wins that eluded them in the pre-conference season where they lost to both Auburn and Alabama; they beat Texas Tech last Monday for their 7th Quad-One win (Tennessee and Alabama have 10; Florida and Duke, 6 each; Auburn: 16!!!) Interestingly, Michigan State has 10 Quad 1 wins and no one has suggested they're in the running, and indeed we have the Spartans with a low outside chance. If they win the Big Ten tournament they'll be close but probably end up the top 2-seed. Kentucky still has a chance too, due to an abundance of huge wins offset by their 10 losses.
Auburn hosts Alabama in the last Very Big Game of the regular season Saturday; before that, Alabama hosts Florida. The Tide still have a chance to park themselves in the 1-seed slot prior to the SEC tournament.
Below are a few teams that made decent-sized moves last week. Texas Tech lost to Houston at home but their rebound win at Kansas pushed them up to a 3-seed. But Arizona's 84-67 loss to Iowa State dropped them 2 seeds, with Arizona State and Kansas left on the menu. In the Big Ten Maryland peaked last week at a 3-seed but losing to Michigan State at home—and barely edging past Penn State on Saturday—deflated that balloon.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total Rank Team Conf Curr Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev 10. Texas Tech B12 22-7 24-7 >99.9 +0.3 0.0 -0.1 >99.9 3 5 17. Maryland B10 22-7 25-7 >99.9 0.0 <0.1 -1.2 >99.9 5 3 25. Arizona B12 19-10 20-11 94.1 -1.9 0.0 0.0 94.2 7 5 26. Vanderbilt SEC 20-9 21-10 92.5 +18.7 0.0 0.0 92.5 7 9 32. Georgia SEC 18-11 20-11 78.9 +31.2 0.0 0.0 79.0 8
The two biggest movers this week were in the SEC, as if that league needed more good fortune. Vanderbilt all but locked up their appearance with wins over Texas A&M and Missouri, and it wasn't easy: the Commodores topped the Aggies 86-84 and needed overtime at home to dust off the Tigers. A few bad bounces and Vandy would have tumbled into the thick of the bubble; instead, they're looking sharp with Arkansas and Georgia left, then the conference tournament. Speaking of Georgia the Bulldogs leapt from below the waterline to an 8-seed, up from around 50/50 to almost 80%, due to their 88-83 win over Florida and topping Texas 83-67 on the road. They're reasonable likely to hit 20 wins this week with South Carolina in addition to Vandy left (the latter is at Georgia).
The expanded bubble: With only a few weeks left, we're now looking at an expanded bubble. Below are the teams who are above the projected waterline. Right now the cut-off point is 47 teams deep, but after conference tournament upsets it will be a few spots higher (2.74, we calculate, so call it three!) That means teams all the way up to #37 are in the Last Eight In. UC San Diego shows up a solid 10-seed in our projection but the Big West doesn't get much respect, so even at 26-4 most people have the Tritons needing to win the Big West tournament to go dancing. I think there's some leeway but they need to at least make the final. VCU is the other conference race favorite here, and in contrast we have them ranked almost exactly consensus: in, but in trouble if they lose again. Interestingly, they have one Quad-1 win to UC San Diego's 2 (but many more Quad 2).
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total Rank Team Conf Curr Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev 37. UC San Diego BW 26-4 28-4 68.1 +3.5 0.0 0.0 73.7 10 10 38. Creighton BE 20-9 22-9 67.3 -4.9 0.0 0.0 68.5 10 9 39. San Diego St. MWC 20-7 22-7 62.1 +3.0 0.0 0.0 64.1 10 10 40. Arkansas SEC 17-12 18-13 58.6 -9.8 0.0 0.0 58.8 10 9 41. VCU A10 24-5 26-5 58.2 +1.0 0.0 0.0 66.0 11 11 42. Indiana B10 18-11 18-13 57.8 +10.6 0.0 0.0 58.1 11 43. Xavier BE 19-10 21-10 55.7 +3.6 0.0 0.0 57.0 11 11p 44. Ohio St. B10 16-13 18-13 53.5 +1.5 0.0 0.0 54.0 11p 12p
Creighton's 83-61 loss to Xavier put the Bluejays in some possible peril but almost everyone sees them making the tournament. And it lifted the Musketeers a bit but the jury is still out; they're not "In" in the Bracket Matrix just yet, other systems are torn, and we have them at around 57%. San Diego State's name, let's face it, gives them the benefit of the doubt, and they're only team #3 in the MWC which placed six last year. Arkansas lost badly to South Carolina Saturday but Wednesday's overtime win over Texas kept them in; also, there are only 12 SEC teams now, which helps, but they have two tough games left (Vandy and Mississippi State). Indiana has made an amazing turnaround and now is favored to make the tournament. At 14-10 five games ago they had little chance; though, we showed an ample 19.3%, mostly because of the chance of winning some big games—which they did! Ohio State also holds on, and if the bubble shrinks they're really in trouble. The Buckeyes face the Hoosiers this coming Saturday.
The heart of the bubble is below. These teams are above the waterline now, but staying where they are is like not moving your towel as the tide comes in. They need to move up or risk getting wet. Boise State especially, as it's only recently that the rest of the Bracketology world starting taking note of them. Now they are the First Team Out in the Bracket Matrix, while we've had them on the bubble for some time. As we noted Mountain West contenders are in shorter supply this year which helps, but given their rank here, the Broncos need to win out and do some damage in their tournament.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total Rank Team Conf Curr Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev 45. Boise St. MWC 21-8 23-8 53.1 +0.6 0.0 0.0 55.0 11p 11p 46. Baylor B12 17-12 18-13 49.8 -10.6 0.0 0.0 50.4 12p 10 47. West Virginia B12 17-12 19-12 49.2 -2.1 0.0 0.0 49.6 12p 12p
Baylor got hit hard last week with a loss at Cincinnati, and their win over Oklahoma State Saturday was pretty meaningless. West Virginia got scorched at BYU. This puts them just above a waterline that might not hold. Helping both teams is the fact that without them, the Big Twelve only has six teams which seems low in today's mega-conference world. But Cincinnati might jump ahead of them; the Baylor win helped a lot more than the (very expected) Houston loss hurt, so the Bearcats are a legit contender in the First Four Out. Drake is in the ultimate "we can get an at-large only if we don't need it" position as the Missouri Valley favorite. Also near the waterline are Colorado State (we noted how there are only three Mountain West teams in right now), North Carolina (did we mention that there are only three ACC teams too?) The Rams take on Boise State in a very important MWC bubble game Friday, and the Tar Heels can not only move into the seedings but probably seal a bid if they beat Duke Saturday. Given those low odds, they better beat Virginia Tech Tuesday.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total Rank Team Conf Curr Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev 48. Drake MVC 27-3 27-3 47.6 -0.1 0.0 0.0 57.4 12 12 49. North Carolina ACC 19-11 20-12 42.2 +2.7 0.0 0.0 43.5 50. Colorado St. MWC 20-9 21-10 41.4 +9.3 0.0 0.0 43.2 51. Cincinnati B12 17-12 19-12 39.5 +8.6 0.0 0.0 40.0 52. Santa Clara WCC 20-11 20-11 38.9 -1.5 0.0 0.0 42.3 53. UC Irvine BW 25-5 27-5 38.5 -1.2 0.0 0.0 45.6 54. Nebraska B10 17-12 18-13 38.1 -20.8 0.0 0.0 38.4 11 55. Oklahoma SEC 17-12 17-14 37.0 -12.7 0.0 0.0 37.2 56. Texas SEC 16-13 17-14 33.5 -22.8 0.0 0.0 33.9 11
As we see an SEC and Big Ten team join the seedings, so, too do an SEC and Big Ten team leave them. Nebraska won 4 straight to look like a solid bid, but then lost 5 of 6 to sink their odds; the loss at home to Minnesota was the last straw dumping them 20%. Texas crashed almost 25% after losses at Arkansas (in OT) and Georgia; the latter, at home and by 16 points, did the damage. The Longhorns have a shot at getting two solid wins (Miss. State and Oklahoma) before the tournament though. The Sooners need to win that one themselves, and beating Missouri on Wednesday wouldn't hurt either, for their on-and-off bid chances. Above we also see Santa Clara, who hangs on in our rankings despite losing to Gonzaga 95-76 (our system just likes the Broncos for some reason; but then again, so does the NET where they are #53). And UC Irvine, the "other" Big West team, who looks to finish 27-5 and just out of the money. They are where most people put UC San Diego, I think.
Below are some teams that fell off the bubble radar last week. SMU and Wake Forest were well-positioned as the ACC needs more teams, but the Mustangs lost to Stanford Saturday and only have Syracuse and FSU left which won't impress. The Deacons lost to Virginia last week but have an opportunity vs. Duke tonight to turn things around, but on the road they have little chance (and update: they just lost). Liberty has been floating in this area all season: a 12-seed with no upward mobility. Still, their at-large odds remained respectable until they lost to Kennesaw State at home, knocking them to near single-digits, far from the bubble.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total Rank Team Conf Curr Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev 58. SMU ACC 21-8 23-8 32.3 -10.8 0.0 0.0 33.5 59. Wake Forest ACC 20-9 21-10 23.5 -13.5 0.0 0.0 24.2 66. Liberty CUSA 23-6 25-6 11.6 -13.3 0.0 0.0 42.0 12 12 68. George Mason A10 22-7 24-7 5.4 -13.3 0.0 0.0 11.4 69. Pittsburgh ACC 16-13 18-13 4.7 -26.7 0.0 0.0 5.9 79. Oregon St. WCC 20-11 20-11 0.2 -9.9 0.0 0.0 3.2
George Mason was once in good shape in the Atlantic 10, either as tournament winner or at-large contender, but two losses in their last three games have put them out of at-large contention at 5%. The Patriots fell to Duquesne Saturday, 85-68, which isn't a good sign for the conference tournament either. Pittsburgh is yet another ACC team fading when the conference needs Dance reps! But going 7-11 in an "easy" Major conference doesn't look good; the Panthers' latest losses were Georgia Tech and Louisville. And Oregon State wasn't looking great last week but they were over 10% odds; now they're near zero. That's an overall drop of 98%!! What happened? Losses to both San Francisco (at home) and St. Mary's; neither is a very bad loss, but going 20-11 in the WCC isn't going to get you near the bubble. Wait a minute, Santa Clara is 20-11 too...? Well, they beat Gonzaga once, but...so did Oregon State. And the Broncos are at 39% with the Beavers near zero? I guess our system just likes Santa Clara.
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