Ok, first let's decide what the Bubble is. Let's say it's the 8 teams above or below the cutline. So where is the cutline? Right now we project it's 48 teams deep, with Baylor the last team in. But given the odds for conference tournament upsets and Bubble shrinkage, it will probably be 45 teams deep. At eight teams above that cutline, Utah State would be included, and since their Dance Chance odds are almost exactly the same, Creighton would get caught in this definition, too. But we're going to say that for now, both are pretty safe. The tournament "needs" more Big East and Mountain West teams, and both teams are this close to 70%.
At-lg %Change Total Seed Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds -3dy -1wk 1seed %Odds Now -3dy -1wk 37. Creighton BE 22-9 69.9 +4.1 +2.6 0.0 71.8 10 10 10 38. Utah St. MWC 25-6 69.9 +3.4 -0.2 0.0 73.9 10 10 9
One conference tournament win for each should seal the deal. Both play on Thursday: Creighton has the Georgetown/DePaul winner, and Utah State gets either UNLV or Air Force. In case of an upset, check back in a few days and they'll be on the bubble.
So next to consider are Oklahoma and UC San Diego, which are above the current Bubble but probably not the projected Bubble. The Sooners finished a respectable 19-12, just 6-12 in conference but just look at their schedule before getting judgy. They beat Missouri and Texas last week to improve 28%, jumping from below the waterline to a 10-seed. The bad news: their very first conference game is Georgia on Wednesday, and Kentucky if they win that. Ugh. The Tritons have the inverse problem: too easy of a schedule. The Bracket Matrix hasn't pulled UC San Diego above the 12-seed line, meaning that if they lose in the Big West tournament, most people think they won't get an at-large. They don't play until Friday, and only need two games to win the auto-bid, but nothing is certain if they lose.
At-lg %Change Total Seed Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds -3dy -1wk 1seed %Odds Now -3dy -1wk 39. Oklahoma SEC 19-12 65.2 +14.2 +28.2 0.0 65.5 10 11p 40. UC San Diego BW 28-4 65.1 +2.5 -3.0 0.0 75.5 10 10 10 41. Indiana B10 19-12 63.6 +14.6 +5.8 0.0 64.2 11 11 42. San Diego St. MWC 21-8 60.8 +7.3 -1.3 0.0 64.3 11 11 10 43. Xavier BE 21-10 59.2 +3.7 +3.5 0.0 61.3 11p 10 11 44. West Virginia B12 19-12 55.2 +6.0 +6.0 0.0 56.1 11p 12p 12p 45. VCU A10 25-6 51.9 -3.2 -6.3 0.0 63.7 11 11 11
Indiana dipped out of our seedings after losing to Oregon but beating Ohio State put them back in. They play Oregon again in their first game on Thursday, with Michigan State to follow. They probably need a win to secure themselves. San Diego State is blessed with a strong "name" and being only the third MWC team in the mix, but if they lose to Boise State on Thursday the Broncos might replace them. Xavier plays Marquette on Thursday and might be sweating if they lose that one, while a win really helps. West Virginia gets either TCU or Colorado and a lost would put the Mountaineers in limbo for sure, bid-wise. A win helps but they face Houston after that. And VCU might very well be the Last Team in right now, they're in the Last Four for sure. The Rams have a double-bye and face either St. Bonaventure or Duquesne. Two wins probably makes them safe, but three removes all doubt!
The three teams below are just above the current waterline, so they represent the Last Few In or the First Few Out, depending on how much the cutline moves up. Drake doesn't have to worry about any of this as they just beat Bradley to win the Missouri Valley's automatic bid. At 30-3 they earned it, but being 29-4 would have make them a coin flip for an at-large. Baylor did what just about any bubble team would last week: beat TCU but lost to Houston. They get Kansas State or Arizona State first and need a win, mostly because a loss would hurt so much! Depending on what the cut-line does, that might not be enough; they face Texas Tech after.
At-lg %Change Total Seed Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds -3dy -1wk 1seed %Odds Now -3dy -1wk 46. Drake MVC 30-3 48.8 +7.8 +1.2 0.0 100.0 12 12 12 47. Boise St. MWC 22-9 48.1 -1.7 -5.0 0.0 51.6 12p 12p 11p 48. Baylor B12 18-13 47.1 -5.9 -2.7 0.0 48.5 12p 11 12p
As mentioned, Boise State takes on San Diego State first in the MWC tournament. The Broncos lost at home to Colorado State or they'd be in even better position, but beating the Aztecs would give them breathing room.
Speaking of Colorado State, the Rams have won seven in a row now but are barely mentioned in the Bracket Matrix (which to be fair, only lists teams that are "in" a bracket, so I wouldn't be mentioning them either). Their first game will be Nevada or Fresno State, since they got the 2-seed in the tournament. The high-profile bubble teams here are Ohio State and North Carolina. The Buckeyes lost a pivotal Bubble matchup at Indiana, 66-60 and fell off their play-in team status to the First Team Out. The Tar Heels failed to beat Duke which was so expected that they moved 0.0% afterwards. Ohio State plays Iowa first and Illinois after, which isn't a bad draw; it gives them a good chance to lift themselves up with a few wins. North Carolina is only ACC team #4, which gives them a boost, and their draw is decent, too: Notre Dame or Pitt, followed by Wake Forest.
At-lg %Change Total Seed Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds -3dy -1wk 1seed %Odds Now -3dy -1wk 49. Ohio St. B10 17-14 45.7 -6.8 -7.8 0.0 47.0 11p 11p 50. North Carolina ACC 20-12 45.3 0.0 +3.1 0.0 48.1 51. Colorado St. MWC 22-9 44.2 +6.4 +2.8 0.0 47.2 52. UC Irvine BW 27-5 42.1 +9.8 +3.6 0.0 52.4 53. Texas SEC 17-14 34.3 -11.2 +0.8 0.0 35.1 54. San Francisco WCC 24-8 29.1 0.0 -4.0 0.0 37.3 55. Santa Clara WCC 20-12 20.4 -12.4 -18.5 0.0 20.4 56. Dayton A10 22-9 19.1 +3.4 +3.2 0.0 29.9
UC Irvine has an uphill battle to an at-large given that even UC San Diego isn't on most brackets unless they auto-bid. So let's skip to Texas, who shot themselves in the foot by losing to Oklahoma at home Saturday. On Wednesday they face Vanderbilt, with Texas A&M looming. One win probably won't do it, so they Longhorns need a big one. The last three teams are already pretty big longshots, and indeed, if the cut-line moves as expected they aren't even Bubble teams. San Francisco is still alive in the West Coast tournament and the question is: if they beat Gonzaga but lose to St. Mary's in the final, do they have a chance? Santa Clara can't ask that question as they are out of the WCC tournament but still show a generous 20% at-large chance. Dayton probably needs to win the Atlantic 10 tournament since they have a double-bye and going 2-1 isn't going to cut it.
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