After nearly touching the 0.0% mark in the Dance Chance, the Wildcats have turned into a great team in the last three weeks
Kansas State's NCAA tournament hopes were all but gone a few weeks ago. Riding a six-game losing streak—and dropping 9 of 10—K-State was 7-11 overall. The the Wildcats snapped the losing streak with home wins over West Virginia and Oklahoma State; that was only marginally impressive, perhaps oreso for the 73-60 and 85-57 scores.
But when they went on the road to Iowa State and came out with an 80-61 win, that was noteworthy.
Most people (myself included) chalked it up to a terrible performance by the Cyclones following a heartbreaking overtime loss at Arizona.
K-State's next game was another road win, but only by 1 point and vs. Arizona State. Nothing to write home about.
And then they had another home stand, beating Kansas 81-73 and, just last night, topping Arizona 73-70.
That's four Quad 1 wins in a row...can the Wildcats be on their way to an NCAA bid?
Here's how their season has looked so far from the Dance Chance's perspective:
Week Rec Odds 0 0-0 20.9 1 2-0 23.6 2 2-1 13.6 3 4-2 10.0 4 6-2 12.6 5 6-3 7.4 6 6-3 5.5 7 6-5 1.2 8 6-5 0.9 9 7-6 0.7 10 7-8 0.1 11 7-10 <0.1 12 8-11 0.1 13 10-11 1.7 14 12-11 4.7 15 13-11 12.2
The Wildcats' odds peaked early at 2-0 and fell from there with each loss, practically hitting 0.0% at 7-10 before the West Virginia win. Since then their KenPom ranking has increased from #98 to #57, their Strength moved from #95 to #58.
But their tournament odds have barely budged and were just around 5.0% as of Sunday. The Arizona win will help, but it's hard to get unstuck once you're in the mud. They'll be higher but still only around 10% when I run the numbers Friday (update: 12.2%). Back where they were at 4-2 in late November.
Kansas State's remaining schedule isn't exceptionally tough but unfortunately four very winnable games—BYU, Utah, UCF, and Cincinnati—are all on the road and the Wildcats will be underdogs. Arizona State and Colorado at home should be wins. Iowa State at home is another loss.
Going 2-5 will put the Wildcats at 15-16 and needing to win the Big Twelve tournament.
But if they can pick up a few wins out of the four "winnable" road games, things change.
Kansas State is on a roll right now and even though it's just six games long, the wins seem significant after beating three arguably top 10 teams. The road teams on their schedule, over the last six games, have gone:
BYU 4-2 #35 Utah 2-4 #84 UCF 1-5 #51 Cincy 3-3 #56
And over the last 6 games their Strength rankings are BYU #35, Utah #84, UCF #51, and Cincinnati #56.
Kansas State, over the last 6 games, has been playing like the #1 team in the nation—ahead of Alabama, Auburn, and Florida. They're playing 16 points better, and 60 rungs higher than their total season average.
2025: last 6 games rnk Team record rating chg rnkChg 1. Kansas St. 13-11 29.66 16.09 +60 2. Alabama 21-3 29.12 2.57 + 3 3. Auburn 22-2 29.08 -2.07 - 2 4. Florida 21-3 28.22 0.87 --- 5. New Mexico 20-4 27.66 9.95 +30 6. Tennessee 20-5 27.54 1.13 --- 7. Missouri 17-6 26.71 6.17 +17 8. UCLA 18-7 26.43 5.39 +12 9. Purdue 19-6 26.17 2.62 + 3 10. Wisconsin 19-5 25.82 3.83 + 8
So going 5-2, or even 7-0, is not out of the question. And ending up 18-13, or especially 20-11, puts them on the bubble.
Even three weeks ago I didn't think I'd be keeping a close eye on Kansas State, but here we are!
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