A week ago Oklahoma was still trying to escape the bubble the Sooners had been trapped in all season, and New Mexico was fighting to be team #3 selected from the Mountain West. Nebraska and Arkansas were slogging through terrible January that saw both teams take six losses. All four teams may have turned a corner last week. But first, as usual I will start at the top.
Where we find—surprise!—Auburn and Duke, who just keep winning and solidifying their 1-seeds. The Tigers and Blue Devils are 8-0 and 11-0 in conference now, and even though things will get tougher, they didn't stumble like the other conference leaders did last week. Speaking of things getting tougher, Alabama is on top of the world right now at over 50% 1-seed odds, but they have yet to play any of the other top 4 SEC teams. The Tide's March opponents are Tennessee, Florida, Auburn. Talk about a back-loaded schedule! Speaking of Tennessee and Florida, as I predicted (thank you) Tennessee wiped the Gators out in Knoxville. It wasn't as bad as Florida's 30-point beatdown of the Vols in Gainesville, but it put Tennessee at a 1-seed—for now. The Gators fall to a 2-seed and lose a chunk of 1-seed odds, mostly picked up by Alabama since the Vols lost to Kentucky last week at home before the Florida rematch.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 1. Auburn SEC 20-1 28-3 30-1 100.0 0.0 98.4 +0.9 1 1 2. Duke ACC 19-2 28-3 29-2 >99.9 0.0 87.5 +8.1 1 1 3. Alabama SEC 19-3 24-7 25-6 >99.9 +0.1 56.3 +12.4 1 1 4. Tennessee SEC 18-4 25-6 26-5 99.9 +0.1 52.8 +5.7 1 2 5. Houston B12 17-4 25-6 27-4 99.8 +0.3 22.2 -0.1 2 2 6. Florida SEC 18-3 25-6 26-5 99.8 0.0 40.0 -13.5 2 1 7. Purdue B10 17-5 23-8 23-8 98.8 +0.8 6.5 +0.3 2 2 8. Illinois B10 15-7 21-10 22-9 98.0 +0.7 7.2 +1.2 2 3
Houston could have nabbed that 1-seed—they had it on Thursday before their overtime home loss to Texas Tech spoiled things. The Cougars ended up almost dead even from last week's numbers, since so many other teams split their games. That even allowed Illinois to rebound from their overtime loss at Nebraska to move up to a 2-seed. Purdue held on to the Big Ten lead with two home wins including Michigan.
Kentucky was another team that 'split,' going 1-1 with a 78-73 win at Tennessee and a home loss to Arkansas. At first the week looked great for the Wildcats, but ended basically a wash, with their 1-seed odds dwindling further. But Iowa State's week was unequivocally bad, with losses to Arizona and Kansas State. They could have shrugged off the first one but the second, an 80-61 home defeat by a 10-11 team? The Cyclones' 1-seed odds dropped from over 18% to around 3%, and left Houston as the only Big Twelve team standing in the way of the SEC getting three 1-seeds. And Texas A&M had a rare 2-0 week and their odds rose with it; Missouri, too rose after thrashing Mississippi State 88-61 on the road. Those two face each other next Saturday, and Missouri travels to Tennessee prior.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 9. Kentucky SEC 15-6 21-10 21-10 97.7 +0.8 8.8 -2.1 3 3 10. Iowa St. B12 17-4 24-7 25-6 97.3 -1.7 3.2 -15.1 3 2 11. Maryland B10 17-5 25-7 25-7 97.0 +3.9 2.5 +1.6 3 4 12. Texas A&M SEC 17-5 22-9 22-9 97.0 +3.4 4.1 +0.8 3 4 13. Michigan B10 16-5 22-9 24-7 96.4 +1.9 3.5 +0.8 4 3 14. Missouri SEC 17-4 23-8 25-6 95.4 +6.3 1.6 +1.0 4 5 15. Kansas B12 15-6 22-9 24-7 94.8 +0.9 1.3 +0.2 4 4 16. Michigan St. B10 18-3 23-8 24-7 94.4 +0.2 1.9 -0.6 4 4
The Big Ten got a shake-up at the very top, where Michigan State got their first conference loss at USC. In our pecking order, however, the Spartans are only 5th as their schedule gets much tougher from here while Maryland has now won four in a row and Michigan won twice (by 4 points and 3 points) to sit at 8-2, but still slipped a seed. Kansas barely survived UCF at home then blew a huge lead at Baylor—yet still somehow added to their 1-seed odds, probably because of Iowa State's debacle. The Jayhawks host the Cyclones tonight (Monday).
Marquette was yet another conference leader who slipped up, losing at home to UConn 77-69 in a game that was not nearly that close. The Golden Eagles are only a 5-seed now in our projection but as the top Big East team they'll probably get better consideration and the tournament could help. St. John's, the other co-leader, took over sole possession of first place in the standings by surviving a Providence upset push, 68-66, at home. Texas Tech of course improved their lot by beating Houston at Houston in overtime, their sixth win in a row.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 17. Marquette BE 18-4 24-7 25-6 93.2 -1.7 0.3 -1.3 5 3 18. Texas Tech B12 17-4 24-7 24-7 91.9 +13.5 0.8 +0.7 5 7 19. Wisconsin B10 17-5 23-8 23-8 91.5 +1.4 0.6 -0.3 5 5 20. Arizona B12 15-6 21-10 21-10 88.3 +9.1 0.1 0.0 5 6 21. UCLA B10 16-6 21-10 23-8 86.7 +9.3 0.1 0.0 6 7 22. Mississippi SEC 16-6 20-11 21-10 86.3 +0.7 0.2 -0.6 6 5 23. St. John's BE 19-3 25-6 27-4 85.6 +4.9 0.1 0.0 6 6 24. Gonzaga WCC 16-7 23-8 24-7 80.9 -1.3 0.0 0.0 6 6
Arizona has been on a tear since starting 4-5 and the overtime home win over Iowa State is arguably their first big win of the season. Former Pac-12 teammate UCLA, who beat the Wildcats weeks ago, won their 4th and 5th straight. And Gonzaga suffered very little by our numbers for their loss to St. Mary's, holding their 6-seed and remaining WCC favorites. Note the 'Zags continued lofty NET ranking of #12!
Ohio State was a big gainer in odds despite splitting road games vs. Penn State and Illinois. The 1-1 result was expected, while the 19-point win over the Nittany Lions exceeded expectations. Oregon, on the other hand, suffered their 2nd and 3rd loss in a row against UCLA and Nebraska, dropping them a seed. Texas and UConn both rose, the Huskies due to upsetting Marquette, the Longhorns due to their 31-point road beatdown of LSU. Prior to that they lost at Ole Miss, 72-69.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 25. Ohio St. B10 13-9 19-12 21-10 78.8 +12.4 <0.1 0.0 7 9 26. Oregon B10 16-6 21-10 22-9 78.4 -6.7 0.0 -0.1 7 6 27. Texas SEC 15-7 20-11 20-11 77.8 +9.9 <0.1 0.0 7 8 28. Connecticut BE 16-6 22-9 22-9 76.1 +9.2 0.0 0.0 7 9 29. Memphis Amer 18-4 26-5 27-4 74.6 +1.5 0.0 0.0 8 8 30. Saint Mary's WCC 20-3 26-5 27-4 74.1 +9.8 0.0 0.0 8 10 31. Mississippi St. SEC 16-6 20-11 18-13 73.9 -14.0 <0.1 -0.6 8 5 32. Baylor B12 14-7 20-11 21-10 71.4 +10.4 0.0 0.0 8 10
St. Mary's rose from a 10 to an 8 after beating Gonzaga, and Baylor's comeback win over Kansas did the same for the Bears. Mississippi State was one of the big losers of the week, falling from their 5-seed perch after losing to Alabama and Missouri, both at home, the latter by 27 points. They're now tied with Texas for 10th place in the SEC.
And finally we get to two of our headline teams: New Mexico and Oklahoma. The Lobos beat Utah State on the road 82-63, making them the new Mountain West favorites and taking them off the bubble for the time being. Utah State dropped to a 10-seed. The Sooners have been on the bubble all year due to low Strength, but their 97-67 win over Vanderbilt was pretty convincing. They already have good wins—Arizona, Louisville, and Michigan, all on neutral courts—so they just have to limit the losses in SEC play.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 33. Clemson ACC 18-4 24-7 25-6 69.3 -1.2 0.0 0.0 9 8 34. Creighton BE 16-6 22-9 22-9 68.3 +3.2 0.0 0.0 9 9 35. New Mexico MWC 18-4 25-6 25-6 67.8 +10.9 0.0 0.0 9 11 36. Oklahoma SEC 16-5 19-12 18-13 66.1 +12.6 0.0 0.0 9 11p 37. Louisville ACC 16-6 24-7 25-6 65.6 -7.3 0.0 0.0 10 8 38. Utah St. MWC 19-3 26-5 26-5 65.1 -8.3 0.0 0.0 10 7
Speaking of Louisville, the Cards were upset at Georgia Tech, ending their 10-game win streak. They're favored in every game going forward, but lack quality wins. They lost to Tennessee, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Duke, and Kentucky, so their SOS is great but there are no big opportunities on their upcoming slate.
The Bubble: BYU jumps into the ranking on the strength of wins over Baylor and UCF, while Georgia hangs on at a 10-seed despite their 5th loss in 6 tries.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 39. BYU B12 15-6 20-11 20-11 62.6 +10.0 0.0 0.0 10 40. Georgia SEC 15-7 19-12 19-12 62.2 -1.7 <0.1 0.0 10 10 41. West Virginia B12 14-7 20-11 21-10 60.7 +5.0 0.0 0.0 11 11p 42. Pittsburgh ACC 14-7 21-10 22-9 59.4 -5.1 0.0 0.0 11p 9 43. Vanderbilt SEC 16-5 19-12 18-13 59.4 -13.9 0.0 -0.1 11p 7 44. San Diego St. MWC 15-5 21-8 23-6 54.5 -5.5 0.0 0.0 11p 10 45. UC San Diego BW 18-4 27-5 27-5 47.8 -6.3 0.0 0.0 11 11p 46. Xavier BE 13-9 19-12 21-10 47.8 -6.7 0.0 0.0 11p 11p
Pittsburgh beat North Carolina but lost to Wake Forest, and in today's environment that's a negative. Vanderbilt had it worse, losing by 30 to Oklahoma and falling from a 7-seed all the way to the play-in line. It wasn't that they lost, but the magnitude dents their Strength rating, and hopes for wins going forward (they are only favorites in 2 games). San Diego State dipped despite going 2-0 last week; both were home games, against inferior teams (San Jose State, Wyoming), and dismal results (3 point and 2 point margins). UC San Diego, who beat the Aztecs in the opener in November, also tumbled despite beating Hawaii. But the Tritons regained "leader" status in the Big West, so their "play-in" designation is gone (for now).
UC Irvine held that status in the Big West last week and their 2 games were even less impressive that UCSD's. The Anteaters needed OT to beat 7-16 Long Beach and only topped UC Davis by 7 points. Rushing in to the Last Four Out were Arkansas, who upset Kentucky, and Nebraska, who beat Illinois in overtime and Oregon on the road. Both teams were in the dumps for most of 2025, with 5- and 6-game losing streaks during that month. Now the Razorbacks have won 2 of 3, the Cornhuskers two straight. Time will tell whether their surges continues or were a temporary respite.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 47. Arkansas SEC 13-8 17-14 17-14 47.3 +14.8 0.0 0.0 48. Nebraska B10 14-8 18-13 17-14 46.0 +22.1 0.0 0.0 49. UC Irvine BW 20-3 27-5 29-3 45.6 -11.6 0.0 0.0 11 50. VCU A10 17-5 25-6 26-5 45.4 -0.5 0.0 0.0 12 12 51. SMU ACC 17-5 23-8 25-6 45.3 +0.4 0.0 0.0 52. Drake MVC 20-2 26-4 28-2 40.7 +1.7 0.0 0.0 12 53. Boise St. MWC 15-7 21-10 23-8 39.4 +5.6 0.0 0.0 54. North Carolina ACC 13-10 19-13 20-12 37.7 -6.7 0.0 0.0
Drake, now 20-2, regained the leader status in the Missouri Valley. The Bulldogs started 12-0, lost two, and have won 8 straight. North Carolina is in big trouble after losing to Pitt and Duke, but have several easy games left on the schedule so getting to 20 wins is within reach. They might need a tournament win or two to seal the deal, though.
The losers: These teams all had bad weeks, losing 10+ percent from their Dance Chance odds. Penn State has now lost 7 of their last 8 since their 12-2 start, and stand 3-8 in Big Ten play. Still, they're not out of it by any means at 35%, but they have to win some games! Oregon State lost big to Gonzaga (98-60) in payback for their overtime home win vs. the Zags a few weeks ago. They play St. Mary's this Saturday and need the win at home to keep their at-large hopes alive. McNeese realistically needs to win their conference tournament but losing at Nicholls State made any contingency plans even more far-fetched. North Texas, too, needs minimally a very strong finish and American tournament run after losing to UTSA, and they probably need an auto-bid to get in. Northwestern's odds got cut in half this week with two home losses (Rutgers, Wisconsin) putting the Wildcats at 3-8 in Big Ten play.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 55. Penn St. B10 13-9 18-13 18-13 35.1 -14.4 0.0 0.0 58. Oregon St. WCC 16-7 22-9 22-9 28.7 -10.0 0.0 0.0 64. McNeese Slnd 16-6 24-7 25-6 20.0 -13.5 0.0 0.0 12 12 66. North Texas Amer 16-5 23-7 25-5 19.9 -15.7 0.0 0.0 67. Northwestern B10 12-10 16-15 17-14 19.9 -19.0 0.0 0.0 71. Bradley MVC 18-5 23-8 25-6 16.7 -22.3 0.0 0.0 12 75. Cincinnati B12 12-9 16-15 16-15 12.4 -14.5 0.0 0.0 80. LSU SEC 12-9 15-16 13-18 6.4 -10.0 0.0 0.0 88. Florida St. ACC 13-9 17-14 16-15 3.4 -16.5 0.0 0.0
Bradley was tied with Drake last week but the Braves fumbled the bag with losses to Illinois-Chicago and Northern Iowa. They lost more than half their at-large odds! As did Cincinnati in the Big Twelve, losing 4 in a row for the 2nd time this year. LSU dropped 10 percentage points mainly due to the 31-point home loss to Texas; the prior loss to Auburn probably didn't move the needle at all. And Florida State for a while was looking like a great turnaround story but the Seminoles have dropped 4 in a row; the upset losses to Virginia Tech and Boston College knocked their odds from around 20% to just over 3% for an at-large bid. While still ahead of 2023's 9-23 team, they're on-track with last season's 17-16 squad.
Comments