For the last month or two, the Dance Chance has been showing three SEC teams as 1-seeds with regularity. And every time I've said, ok, this won't last, the SEC will get two 1-seeds as one falls by the wayside and a strong non-SEC team will surge into the 1-line.
It hasn't happened; in fact, the SEC now has four very strong 1-seed candidates (Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, Florida) and the other conferences have just one (Duke).
Auburn is about as close to a lock for a 1-seed as you can get. Duke isn't that far behind, meaning it won't be an SEC sweep at least!
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev 1. Auburn SEC 21-1 28-3 30-1 100.0 0.0 98.8 +0.4 100% 1 1 2. Duke ACC 20-2 28-3 29-2 >99.9 0.0 88.0 +0.5 >99.9 1 1 3. Alabama SEC 19-3 24-7 25-6 >99.9 0.0 58.4 +2.1 >99.9 1 1 4. Tennessee SEC 19-4 25-6 27-4 >99.9 0.0 58.6 +5.8 >99.9 1 1 5. Florida SEC 19-3 25-6 26-5 >99.9 +0.1 44.8 +4.8 >99.9 2 2 6. Houston B12 18-4 25-6 27-4 99.8 0.0 16.6 -5.6 99.8 2 2 7. Purdue B10 18-5 23-8 23-8 99.7 +0.9 10.6 +4.1 99.8 2 2
The competition for the last two 1-seeds is primarily among Alabama, Tennessee and Florida, with only Houston and Purdue now looking like strong contenders from the other major conference.
And the rest of the country is coming around to the "three SEC 1-seeds" point of view: in the Bracket Matrix, there are now three SEC 1-seeds and Florida is the top 2-seed (just as we have it). Joe Lunardi at ESPN gives his blessing to Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee at this point.
What changed? Nothing, really. The odds just played out as expected. The Bracket Matrix is largely made of bracket pickers who view the current state of affairs rather than project the season, so they were calling things as they looked at the time. The Dance Chance looks ahead, but even then it's an average of the possibilities. Normally, some teams with similar future odds diverge instead, and I figured one or two of the top SEC teams would hit a rough patch. It sort of happened with Tennessee but they recovered.
Instead it was Iowa State who hit a rough patch; they were a 1-seed in the Bracket Matrix but usually a 2- or 3-seed in the Dance Chance. Houston had a clear path to a 1-seed but they lost to Texas Tech at home and lack great wins. They're still in the running though. Purdue has surged lately but they'll need a really strong finish to be in position for a 1-seed.
The SEC tournament is guaranteed to give every SEC team, save one, a loss, and that will help push down at least four 1-seed contenders! So conference tournament season will boost the Big Ten and Big Twelve—as long as the right teams win! But in general, 1-seeds are very often conference tournament winners when it's really close, and the SEC can only have one of those.
It won't be a big shock if one conference gets three 1-seeds, as it's happened twice before: the Big East in 2009 and ACC in 2019. And now that there are only five major conferences, it's become a lot more likely than it was in the past.
Not only is the SEC dominating the 1-seed race, but with Oklahoma exceeding our low expectations and Arkansas' recent push (beating Kentucky and Texas), there are 14 SEC teams in the latest Dance Chance projections. By the aggregate odds, however, the SEC should get 11.9 teams, so a couple of the teams that are above the cutline will probably not make it. Right now that would be Arkansas and Vanderbilt.
But a few weeks ago I was still saying a strong contender from the Big Ten or Big Twelve would push out the weaker SEC 1-seed contenders, and that hasn't happened yet. So we might see 14 SEC teams in the tournament—over 20% of the entire field!
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