The big game Saturday is in Knoxville where Tennessee hosts Alabama, with the winner taking the lead for a 1-seed heading into conference tournaments. Auburn, Duke, and Florida are all but locks, and Alabama and Tennessee are the favorites for the last 1-seed. Unless Houston wins the Big Twelve tournament it looks like 3 teams from the SEC. Alabama, in particular, controls their own destiny to a 1-seed, playing Tennessee, Florida, and Auburn in their last 3 games! So we should see their 1-seed odds either rocket or plummet in the next week or so.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total Rank Team Conf Curr Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev 1. Auburn SEC 26-2 29-2 100.0 0.0 99.3 +0.1 100.0 1 1 2. Duke ACC 25-3 28-3 100.0 0.0 84.5 +1.9 100.0 1 1 3. Florida SEC 24-4 26-5 100.0 0.0 84.2 -4.8 100.0 1 1 4. Alabama SEC 23-5 24-7 100.0 +0.1 58.4 +12.1 100.0 1 2 5. Tennessee SEC 23-5 26-5 100.0 0.0 50.6 -7.9 100.0 2 1 6. Houston B12 24-4 27-4 >99.9 0.0 17.1 +1.9 >99.9 2 2 7. Kentucky SEC 19-9 20-11 >99.9 0.0 3.1 -2.5 >99.9 2 3
Auburn is nearly a lock for the top overall seed at this point. The Tigers travel to Kentucky, another 1-seed contender who will probably have to settle for a 2-seed at best, though beating Auburn could rekindle their hopes. Duke could be the overall #1 but there aren't a lot more big wins on their schedule (they face Florida State Saturday). Winning the ACC tournament would help, but they mostly need Auburn to stumble. They have a win over the Tigers which helps, as does Florida. The Gators fell to Georgia on Tuesday knocking them to #3 in the pecking order; they host Texas A&M Saturday. Houston hosts Cincinnati.
Two SEC teams made big gains in the lower seeds, too. Vanderbilt upset Texas A&M on the road, 86-84 on Wednesday putting their odds near the 90% mark, while Georgia jumped from the First Four Out to a 10-seed with an 88-83 win over 1-seed Florida. They travel to Texas on Saturday, a big game for both bubble teams; the Longhorns slipped out of the seedings after losing to Arkansas in overtime Wednesday, but they are the First Team Out.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total Rank Team Conf Curr Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev 29. Vanderbilt SEC 19-9 20-11 85.6 +11.8 0.0 0.0 85.7 8 9 37. Georgia SEC 17-11 19-12 69.3 +21.6 0.0 0.0 69.4 10 46. Indiana B10 17-11 18-13 50.5 +3.3 0.0 0.0 50.7 12p 47. Xavier BE 18-10 21-10 50.2 -1.9 0.0 0.0 51.3 12p 11p 48. Texas SEC 16-12 18-13 49.9 -6.4 0.0 0.0 50.1 11 49. Baylor B12 16-12 18-13 48.3 -12.1 0.0 0.0 48.7 10 59. Wake Forest ACC 19-9 21-10 26.0 -11.0 0.0 0.0 26.5 67. Pittsburgh ACC 16-12 18-13 12.5 -18.9 0.0 0.0 13.3
Indiana slipped into the seedings again, something that seemed very unlikely just a few weeks ago. The Hoosiers topped Penn State to add to their recent wins over Michigan State and Purdue. And Xavier held on as the Last Team In; they face Creighton Saturday.
Baylor dropped out but the Bears—who lost at Cincinnati Tuesday, 69-67—are still in the First Four Out. They have Oklahoma State, TCU, and Houston left before the Big Twelve tournament.
And the ACC took a hit with Wake Forest and Pittsburgh both tumbling. The Deacons fell to Virginia at home and dropped outside the bubble proper, while Pittsburgh lost at home to Georgia Tech, going from unlikely odds (but possible at around 30%) to very low. The Panthers are now showing a 1 in 8 chance of making the tournament; they face Louisville next, then NC State and Boston College, and will need a good showing in the ACC tournament. Only three ACC teams—Duke, Clemson, and Louisville—are projected to make the tournament, though SMU and North Carolina are on the bubble.
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