Auburn and Duke played just once each last week. Both underperformed but won, and both held their spots on top of the Dance Chance. The Blue Devils beat Wake Forest by just 7 points on the road, which caused a minor slip in their 1-seed odds. The Tigers held on to beat Tennessee by 2 points at home, about the same level of underperformance as Duke but beating Tennessee by any amount, even at home, is a big deal and Auburn's 1-seed odds now sit at 97.5%—higher than all but 8 teams' tournament odds! The Vols' odds went up, with their 1-seed odds climbing 3.4%. Part of that was from their other game last week, an 68-56 win over Mississippi State, but also from the fact that losing to Auburn is expected and not a big ding on the résumé. They did, however, slip to a 2-seed, but remain in a virtual tie with Alabama and Florida. The Tide beat Vandy and LSU last week and jumped into the other 1-seed slot, while Florida nipped South Carolina and crushed Georgia to add 10% to their 1-seed odds. It's pretty clear that the SEC is going to have at least two 1-seeds. Tennessee rematches Florida this Saturday in Knoxville, hoping to avenge the 73-43 loss in Gainesville.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 1. Auburn SEC 18-1 28-3 30-1 100.0 0.0 97.5 +0.5 1 1 2. Duke ACC 17-2 28-3 29-2 >99.9 0.0 79.4 -1.1 1 1 3. Alabama SEC 17-3 24-7 25-6 99.8 +0.8 43.9 +6.2 1 2 4. Florida SEC 18-2 26-5 26-5 99.8 +0.4 53.5 +10.0 1 1 5. Tennessee SEC 17-3 25-6 28-3 99.8 +0.4 47.1 +3.4 2 1 6. Houston B12 16-3 26-5 28-3 99.5 +1.3 22.3 +9.4 2 2 7. Iowa St. B12 17-2 26-5 26-5 99.0 +1.3 18.3 +5.2 2 2 8. Purdue B10 16-5 23-8 23-8 98.0 +2.5 6.2 +0.2 2 3
Houston and Iowa State are probably the favorites for the remaining 1-seed since the Selection Committee will be loathe to give three bids to the same conference (though it's happened before a few times). The Cougars beat Kansas, at Kansas, in double overtime in what is really their first big win of the season; they fell short against Auburn and Alabama in the pre-conference season, but have won 12 straight now. Iowa State also lost to Auburn in November but is 14-1 since, including UCF (108-83) and ASU (76-61) last week. And Purdue takes over our leadership of the Big Ten despite falling to Ohio State last Tuesday. The Boilermakers crushed Michigan 91-64 on Friday.
If the SEC looks sure to get 2+ 1-seeds, the Big Ten appears to be a long-shot to get one. Illinois fumbled the bag with a 91-70 home loss to Maryland, their 3rd loss in 4 games, before recovering with an 83-74 win over Northwestern. Michigan, as mentioned, lost to Purdue by 27. Michigan State beat Rutgers for their 12th win in a row but still only rates a 4-seed in the Dance Chance; the Spartans' biggest pre-conference win is North Carolina which isn't aging well. Maryland roared back with the win over Illinois (and a 1-point win at Indiana) but the Terps remain around 1.0% for 1-seed consideration at this point. Don't look at the Big East, either, as their big hope is Marquette, who holds wins over Maryland, Purdue, and Wisconsin and rates a 3-seed this week, but has just 1.6% 1-seed odds.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 9. Illinois B10 14-6 22-9 23-8 97.3 -1.3 6.0 -11.9 3 2 10. Kentucky SEC 14-5 21-10 22-9 96.9 -0.2 10.9 -7.8 3 3 11. Marquette BE 17-3 25-6 27-4 94.9 +2.8 1.6 +0.2 3 4 12. Michigan B10 14-5 22-9 25-6 94.5 -1.3 2.7 -5.3 3 3 13. Michigan St. B10 17-2 24-7 25-6 94.2 +1.8 2.5 -0.8 4 4 14. Kansas B12 14-5 23-8 25-6 93.9 0.0 1.1 -3.2 4 3 15. Texas A&M SEC 15-5 21-10 21-10 93.6 +5.6 3.3 +0.5 4 5 16. Maryland B10 16-5 24-8 26-6 93.1 +11.0 0.9 +0.7 4 6
Again, the SEC shows how it's done: even 5th place Kentucky—who lost to Vanderbilt on Saturday to go 3-3 in-conference—still has double-digit 1-seed odds based on the opportunity value of their remaining SEC schedule (as well as big wins over Duke, Gonzaga, Louisville, and Florida). Texas A&M lost at Texas by a point after blowing a 21 point lead but their tournament odds and 1-seed odds went up due to beating Ole Miss in Oxford (by a point also). Kansas' 74-61 win at TCU apparently exactly offset their loss to Houston...but their 1-seed odds fell by about 75% from 4.3 to 1.1%.
And if you thought the SEC teams were done...here are the 3M's. Missouri lost at Texas but beat Mississippi at home; they next play Mississippi State, who slipped last week, losing to Tennessee and needing OT to beat South Carolina. Mississippi had the worst week of the three, losing not only to Missouri but to Texas A&M at home. Still, this gives the SEC nine teams among the top five seeds, almost half. The Big Ten has two teams here, giving them seven teams in the top 6-seeds. Wisconsin lost at UCLA by a bucket but roasted Nebraska in Madison 83-55. Oregon tripped Washington in Eugene but lost to Minnesota 77-69. Like Kansas, that was a wash for their tournament hopes but leave them at negligible 1-seed odds, even at 16-4.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 17. Wisconsin B10 16-4 23-8 23-8 90.1 +4.2 0.9 +0.2 5 5 18. Missouri SEC 16-4 21-10 21-10 89.1 +0.7 0.6 -0.8 5 5 19. Mississippi St. SEC 16-4 22-9 22-9 87.9 -1.1 0.7 -1.9 5 4 20. Mississippi SEC 15-5 20-11 20-11 85.6 -4.8 0.8 -2.8 5 4 21. Oregon B10 16-4 22-9 23-8 85.1 0.0 <0.1 -0.1 6 5 22. Gonzaga WCC 15-6 24-7 25-6 82.2 +1.2 0.0 0.0 6 6 23. St. John's BE 17-3 24-7 26-5 80.7 +0.6 <0.1 0.0 6 6 24. Arizona B12 13-6 20-11 22-9 79.2 -3.1 <0.1 0.0 6 6
Gonzaga played one game, beating lowly (7-15) Portland 105-62. That didn't budge the radar much, neither did St. John's for beating Xavier. Nor Arizona for beating Oklahoma State and Colorado, in fact their Dance Chance dipped a bit though they held their 6-seed. The Wildcats host Iowa State tonight (Monday) in a very important game for their eventual seed, while the Zags play St. Mary's on Saturday.
Not much movement below odds-wise, though Utah State (won twice by 20+ to start 18-2) and Vandy (lost to Bama but beat UK) jump from the 9-line. Texas Tech plays Houston on Saturday while UCLA has USC tonight and Oregon Thursday.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 25. Texas Tech B12 15-4 23-8 23-8 78.4 +0.7 <0.1 0.0 7 7 26. UCLA B10 14-6 20-11 23-8 77.4 +3.3 <0.1 0.0 7 7 27. Utah St. MWC 18-2 26-5 28-3 73.4 +6.5 0.0 0.0 7 9 28. Vanderbilt SEC 16-4 20-11 20-11 73.3 +5.4 <0.1 0.0 7 9 29. Memphis Amer 16-4 26-5 27-4 73.1 -0.8 0.0 0.0 8 7 30. Louisville ACC 15-5 24-7 26-5 72.9 +3.5 0.0 0.0 8 8 31. Clemson ACC 17-4 24-7 25-6 70.5 +0.6 0.0 0.0 8 8 32. Texas SEC 14-6 19-12 19-12 67.9 +15.6 <0.1 0.0 8 11p
Memphis won twice at home, by 8 and 23 and still slipped a bit. It's getting to that time for mid-Majors where, if the teams above you don't lose, you lose ground. Louisville is now the #2 ACC pick after winning 9 in a row, with Clemson—winner of 5 in a row—right behind. Texas had a great home stand: beating Missouri then coming back from 21 down to top A&M, a week that gained them over 15% in the Dance Chance and took them off the bubble—for now. The Bubble has a way of drawing teams back in.
Connecticut's woes continued as the Huskies lost to Xavier after needing OT to beat Butler at home. The week before they fell to Creighton, who continued their own good luck with wins over DePaul and Seton Hall. Ohio State had maybe the best week on the chart, up 16.3% after beating Purdue on the road and Iowa at home by 17.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 33. Connecticut BE 14-6 21-10 21-10 66.9 -2.6 0.0 0.0 9 8 34. Ohio St. B10 11-8 18-13 19-12 66.4 +16.3 <0.1 0.0 9 11p 35. Creighton BE 14-6 21-10 22-9 65.1 +8.1 0.0 0.0 9 11 36. Pittsburgh ACC 13-6 22-9 22-9 64.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 9 9 37. Saint Mary's WCC 18-3 25-6 26-5 64.3 +4.1 0.0 0.0 10 10 38. Georgia SEC 14-6 19-12 20-11 63.9 -11.0 <0.1 -0.2 10 7
St. Mary's has won 8 in a row heading into their Saturday showdown with Gonzaga. Pittsburgh broke their 4-game losing streak at Syracuse but they've settled in at a 9-seed, while Georgia's skid continued with losses at Arkansas and Florida. That follows losses to Florida and Auburn, so it's not really the Bulldogs' fault.
The Bubble: Baylor and SDSU both took care of business last week and held their 10-seeds but neither could escape the gravity of the bubble. New Mexico gives the Mountain West three teams, two on the bubble. UC Irvine was upset by Cal-Riverside last Thursday in overtime and with UC San Diego's rise, both Big West powers are on the good side of the bubble. The Tritons won by 14 and 25 last week to reach the play-in line, but in this scenario there's little hope for getting two Big West teams in after the conference tournament.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 39. Baylor B12 13-6 20-11 19-12 61.0 +2.0 0.0 -0.1 10 10 40. San Diego St. MWC 13-5 21-8 23-6 60.0 +2.6 0.0 0.0 10 10 41. UC Irvine BW 18-3 28-4 29-3 57.2 -3.5 0.0 0.0 11 9 42. New Mexico MWC 17-4 24-7 24-7 56.9 -0.3 0.0 0.0 11 10 43. West Virginia B12 13-6 19-12 20-11 55.7 -17.3 0.0 -0.1 11p 8 44. Xavier BE 13-8 20-11 21-10 54.5 +2.3 0.0 0.0 11p 11p 45. UC San Diego BW 17-4 26-6 27-5 54.1 +4.9 0.0 0.0 11p 46. Oklahoma SEC 15-4 19-12 17-14 53.5 +9.3 0.0 0.0 11p
West Virginia drops from an 8-seed to a play-in team after losing twice—at home to ASU and Kansas on the road. Next up, Houston. Xavier holds on to their play-in status, splitting games with St. John's and UConn (a 76-72 home win). And Oklahoma steals the last spot with a couple of wins (South Carolina and Arkansas) putting the Sooners at 2-4 in the SEC and favored in only 2 more games. If they do make it to 19-12 they will probably need a win in the tournament to make the Big Dance.
The Lower Bubble: BYU had a great week and almost made the seedings. The Cougars beat Colorado 83-67 on the road and Cincinnati 80-52 at home. Penn State (3-6 in the Big Ten) beat Rutgers but lost to Iowa by a point on the road, keeping them on the bubble along with Northwestern (also 3-6). VCU is tops in the Atlantic 10 and has won six straight in league play.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 47. BYU B12 13-6 19-12 20-11 52.6 +16.1 0.0 0.0 48. Penn St. B10 13-7 19-12 19-12 49.5 +0.5 0.0 0.0 49. VCU A10 16-4 25-6 27-4 45.9 +6.3 0.0 0.0 12 12 50. SMU ACC 15-5 23-8 25-6 44.9 -10.4 0.0 0.0 11 51. North Carolina ACC 13-8 20-12 20-12 44.4 -9.9 0.0 0.0 11p 52. Bradley MVC 18-3 25-6 27-4 39.0 +1.3 0.0 0.0 12 53. Drake MVC 18-2 25-5 27-3 39.0 -3.7 0.0 0.0 12 54. Northwestern B10 12-8 18-13 18-13 38.9 +3.9 0.0 0.0
SMU and North Carolina both drop out of the seedlines, giving the ACC just four teams projected. The Tar Heels lost to Wake Forest then edged Boston College in overtime at home. SMU fell to Louisville by 25 before beating NC State Saturday. And Bradley and Drake are locked in a neck-and-neck struggle in the Missouri Valley that probably means nothing, since it will come down to the tournament. The Braves and Bulldogs are both at 39.0% for an at-large bid. Drake beat Bradley on January 8th; the rematch, at Drake, is on February 16th.
Mid-majors have hope? Dayton made some progress toward reclaiming its Atlantic 10 favorite status, winning three straight after a 3-game skid, while George Mason is actually tied for the league lead at 6-1. North Texas also made progress toward a possible bid with their 4th and 5th win in a row, but quality win opportunities are not on the horizon. McNeese is the favorite in the Southland and has reasonable hope of winning out. The Cowboys have won 11 straight and are 10-0 in conference play.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 57. Dayton A10 14-6 22-9 23-8 37.7 +6.8 0.0 0.0 58. North Texas Amer 15-4 24-6 26-4 35.6 +6.2 0.0 0.0 60. McNeese Slnd 15-5 25-6 26-5 33.5 +6.8 0.0 0.0 12 12 62. UCF B12 13-6 18-13 18-13 29.9 +9.9 0.0 0.0 64. Cincinnati B12 12-7 18-13 18-13 26.9 -17.6 0.0 0.0 65. Iowa B10 13-7 17-14 15-16 24.8 -10.5 0.0 0.0 67. Nebraska B10 12-8 16-15 15-16 23.9 -18.4 0.0 0.0 68. George Mason A10 15-5 23-8 25-6 23.9 +5.4 0.0 0.0
Majors who still have hope? (above): UCF got a bump in Big Twelve play from beating TCU 85-58 Saturday; they're up almost 10% despite losing at Iowa State before that. Cincinnati went the opposite direction in a big way after falling to Texas Tech and BYU (by 28). Both Iowa and Nebraska were dragged down, the Hawkeyes by a terrible home loss to Minnesota and a 1-point escape vs. Penn State, the Cornhuskers by a home loss to USC and 28-point loss at Wisconsin, for their 6th loss in a row after a 12-2 start.
ACC in the news: Wake Forest got a boost from upsetting North Carolina, 67-66, and playing Duke pretty close, 63-56. Stanford had a solid week, beating Miami and Florida State, who had a terrible week by also losing to California. All three have around 20% odds to get a bid, so in aggregate the odds favor one of them to come close at least. Villanova's chances don't look great after losing 4 of their last 5 to stand at 12-9, but they still have opportunities on their schedule including Creighton at home next.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 69. Wake Forest ACC 15-5 19-12 19-12 23.0 +6.4 0.0 0.0 70. Stanford ACC 14-6 20-11 20-11 21.9 +11.0 0.0 0.0 73. Florida St. ACC 13-7 19-12 20-11 19.9 -14.2 0.0 0.0 75. Villanova BE 12-9 17-14 18-13 17.4 -11.6 0.0 0.0 81. Akron MAC 14-5 23-7 25-5 8.8 +6.0 0.0 0.0 13 14 84. Washington St. WCC 15-7 20-11 19-12 7.6 -11.3 0.0 0.0 86. Nevada MWC 11-9 18-13 17-14 7.6 -13.2 0.0 0.0 91. TCU B12 10-9 15-16 14-17 5.0 -10.7 0.0 0.0
Little hope for bid: Don't look now but Akron is 7-0 in the MAC and favored the rest of the way, so even if they lose in the conference tournament they're pretty solid for the NIT. But Washington State is faltering in the WCC after losses to Santa Clara and St. Mary's, Nevada is 3-6 in the Mountain West after dropping games to top MWC teams Utah State and San Diego State by 40 points total, and TCU is down to a 1 in 20 long shot after losses to Kansas and Central Florida.
Comments