Florida took an early lead and didn't look back, crushing the final D-I unbeaten Tennessee 73-43. It was supposed to be a battle of the unbeatens but Florida lost a few days ago at Kentucky, meaning that both the Gators and the Vols are 14-1 now.
Just out of curiosity, let's see what this one, lopsided result does to our power ratings: Strength, Success, and Overall.
This is a "pure points" rating—winner doesn't matter—and it's also unweighted (recent games don't count more). Here is the Strength ranking as of Sunday's games:
# Team Record Rating
1. Auburn 13-1 34.71
2. Duke 12-2 32.60
3. Houston 10-3 31.29
4. Tennessee 14-0 29.69
5. Gonzaga 12-4 29.39
6. Illinois 11-3 28.49
7. Iowa St. 12-1 26.52
8. Alabama 12-2 26.43
9. Florida 13-1 25.99
Tennessee was undefeated but rated below Auburn, Duke, and Houston in Strength. Florida was 9th going in to tonight's game. With a 3 point home edge, the expected result was Tennessee by about a point; the oddsmakers favored the Gators by 2.5, and the betting public pushed that to 3.5 points.
With tonight's result added in, we have:
# Team Record Rating
1. Auburn 13-1 34.69
2. Duke 12-2 32.58
3. Houston 10-3 31.26
4. Gonzaga 12-4 29.37
5. Illinois 11-3 28.29
6. Florida 14-1 28.00
7. Tennessee 14-1 27.64
What a difference a 30-point blowout makes! Tennessee fell three spots to #7 and Florida moved up 3 to #6. Overall Tennessee's rating fell by about two full points while Florida gained 2. Considering that I only added this one result, it makes sense. Still, it's rare when one result puts the winner ahead of the loser when the loser was almost 4 points better previously.
Now, Success:
Success is a wins-losses-only rating, meaning score margin doesn't matter. So whether Florida won by a point or by 30, the result here would be the same. It does matter that they played at home. Here's the Success ratings before the game:
# Team record Rating
1. Tennessee 14-0 38.51
2. Auburn 13-1 31.30
3. Kentucky 12-2 21.29
4. Mississippi St. 13-1 20.42
5. Duke 12-2 18.45
6. Florida 13-1 18.39
Tennessee was the clear #1 here at 14-0, with Auburn a solid 2nd place and everyone else including the Gators far behind. Florida's loss to Kentucky dropped them to #6 at 13-1. What does one home win do?
# Team record Rating
1. Auburn 13-1 31.09
2. Tennessee 14-1 29.26
3. Florida 14-1 28.43
4. Kentucky 12-2 23.53
Well, now Auburn's back at #1, best among the 1-loss teams in Success. Florida gains a lot of ground back—10 points worth—and Tennessee loses almost 10 points, but remains ahead of the Gators. The 30 points doesn't matter, and the home court is taken into account, so the result isn't seen as definitive just yet. In any event, the teams are very close. Note that Florida moves back ahead of Kentucky who just beat them a few days ago! This rating system doesn't know (or care) that Kentucky beat Florida by 6 and Florida beat Tennessee by 30.
This is the combination of the two ratings: it simply adds the scores together, accounting for both winning games and playing for style points. Prior to the game:
# Team Record Rating
1. Tennessee 14-0 68.21
2. Auburn 13-1 66.01
3. Duke 12-2 51.05
4. Kentucky 12-2 46.90
5. Iowa St. 12-1 44.72
6. Florida 13-1 44.39
Tennessee was barely ahead of Auburn as of Monday, the Vols having enough of a lead in Success to offset Auburn's lead in Strength. Florida was 9th in Strength and 6th in Success, good enough for 6th place overall.
# Team Record Rating
1. Auburn 13-1 65.79
2. Tennessee 14-1 56.91
3. Florida 14-1 56.43
4. Duke 12-2 50.87
5. Kentucky 12-2 49.26
6. Iowa St. 12-1 44.42
The teams are so close in Strength that it ends up being the larger difference in Success that gives Tennessee about a 1/2 point edge overall. In any case it's pretty much even after the 30-point blowout. Does that make sense? Why isn't Florida ahead? Well, what do you think the line will be when Tennessee gets a shot at revenge in February 1st?
Only Auburn passes Tennessee, while Florida moves past Iowa State, Kentucky, and Duke. This gives the SEC the top three spots in the country, and 4 of the top 5!
Note that this doesn't include any other games played since Sunday. When those are figured in, a lot could change (Auburn is playing Texas as I type this, while Duke has demolished Pitt, and Kentucky lost to Georgia. Iowa State leads Utah. I normally update twice a week until football season is over but I'll make an exception tomorrow morning, there's too much going on!
Addendum: Where does this game rank among the year's best performances?
Seems like it should be pretty close to the top:
1. Kansas 99, @UCF 48 2. Auburn 91, =Ohio St. 53 3. Gonzaga 113, UMass Lowell 54 4. Illinois 109, @Oregon 77 5. Arkansas 109, Maryland Eastern Shore 35 6. Alabama 110, UNC Asheville 54 7. Florida 73, Tennessee 43
Florida's win is only #7. Auburn's win over Ohio State is only #2 after Kansas beat Central Florida by 51. Gonzaga's best win was over Baylor by 38 in the opener until they topped UMass-Lowell by 59. If we filter out the mega-blowouts and consider only power-conference games, Florida over Tennessee is 3rd after the big wins by Auburn and Illinois. Ignoring margin of victory, though, it's probably 2nd to Duke's win over Auburn.
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