Tennessee is now the only undefeated team in the nation but they're not the Dance Chance's overall 1-seed, in fact they slipped to #3 despite a very solid 24-point win over Arkansas. Auburn matched that with 16-point win over Missouri, and their 29-point win over Monmouth was much better than the Vols' 15-point win over Norfolk State. So the Tigers kept the top spot, and Duke pushed into #2, increasing their 1-seed odds by nearly 20% with an 89-62 road win vs. SMU (the Blue Devils also hold the only win over Auburn so far). Crashing the top seed line is Illinois, who beat Oregon and Washington on the road, the former win (109-77) much more impressive than the latter (81-77) but 2 road wins is 2 road wins, and the Illini jump from a 3-seed all the way to the top four.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 1. Auburn SEC 13-1 28-3 30-1 >99.9 0.0 93.8 0.0 1 1 2. Duke ACC 12-2 28-3 29-2 99.9 +1.0 68.5 +19.0 1 1 3. Tennessee SEC 14-0 27-4 30-1 99.6 +0.3 63.9 -4.4 1 1 4. Illinois B10 11-3 24-7 26-5 97.0 +6.1 27.2 +11.7 1 3 5. Houston B12 10-3 25-6 28-3 96.0 +1.2 15.4 -1.2 2 1 6. Alabama SEC 12-2 22-9 25-6 95.3 +3.0 26.4 +3.1 2 2 7. Kentucky SEC 12-2 23-8 25-6 95.1 +3.1 23.9 -0.1 2 2 8. Florida SEC 13-1 24-7 26-5 93.8 0.0 20.2 -8.4 2 2
Houston is pushed down to a 2-seed for now but they're in good shape after starting 2-0 in Big Twelve play including a 31-point win over BYU. The big game in the 2-line saw Kentucky hand Florida their first loss, 106-100, which left the Gators' Dance Chance odds untouched but their 1-seed odds took a hit. The Wildcats improved marginally, while Alabama remains ahead of both (which seems right considering the Tide have wins over both Houston and Illinois). Kentucky's win ruined the undefeated vs. undefeated matchup between Florida and Tennessee; now it's just a 1-seed vs. a 2-seed come Tuesday the 7th.
Three Big Ten teams below took a hit: UCLA's run-up was paused by a loss to Nebraska, and Maryland took a double hit, losing to both Washington and Oregon on their swing through the Pacific Northwest. As noted above, Oregon lost to Illinois by 32 which outweighed their 4-point win over the Terps. Bucking the trend was Michigan, who beat USC and, having shaken off all of last year's 8-24 stench, is 11-3 and is looking like a 3-seed. The Wolverines face UCLA on Tuesday.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 12. Michigan B10 11-3 23-8 27-4 90.6 +8.5 8.3 +3.3 3 5 14. UCLA B10 11-3 22-9 25-6 86.3 -0.2 3.0 -4.4 4 4 17. Texas A&M SEC 12-2 21-10 23-8 84.5 +11.2 5.1 +1.8 5 6 18. Maryland B10 11-4 23-9 25-7 82.8 -5.1 1.9 -7.7 5 3 19. Oregon B10 13-2 23-8 23-8 82.3 -0.4 1.0 -2.9 5 4 21. Connecticut BE 12-3 23-8 25-6 76.3 -6.8 0.2 -1.2 6 4 22. Arizona B12 8-5 20-11 22-9 76.3 +9.3 0.8 +0.1 6 8 25. Wisconsin B10 11-3 21-10 23-8 74.3 +12.9 0.6 +0.3 7 9
Another winner in the Big Ten above was Wisconsin, who beat Iowa by 31 and Rutgers on the road adding 13% to their odds. Nearly matching that was Texas A&M who beat Texas 80-60; they play Oklahoma and Alabama this week. Arizona also improved their lot, beating TCU and Cincinnati in their first 4-game win streak of the season; projections call for the Wildcats to go somewhere between 14-6 and 16-4 in the Big Twelve. Connecticut edged DePaul and Providence last week but they sank a bit further as the last vestiges of last year's National Championship are removed from the system's predictions...
Three huge winners below: West Virginia upset Kansas—in Lawrence—62-61, which would be enough to pump up anyone's odds, and the Mountaineers followed it up with a 69-50 win over Oklahoma State, soaring 22.3% from the play-in line to a 7-seed (Kansas, for their part, rebounded by beating UCF by 51 points and improved their own outlook ultimately!) Vanderbilt is a stealth 13-1—have they not been on our radar?—and jump in from nowhere into an 8-seed after beating LSU 80-72. Ok, so they were on our radar as 2nd-team-out last week, but shedding last year's 9-23 season helped, too. As did beating New Orleans 100-56, nothing like a good beatdown to improve one's power rating! Also Nebraska: the Cornhuskers beat Southern by 34 and UCLA by 8, putting them firmly in the seedings.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 27. Ohio St. B10 9-5 19-12 21-10 71.3 -7.3 0.5 -2.0 7 5 28. West Virginia B12 11-2 21-10 21-10 70.9 +22.3 0.2 +0.1 7 11p 30. Vanderbilt SEC 13-1 20-11 19-12 67.4 +19.7 0.5 +0.4 8 32. Baylor B12 9-4 20-11 20-11 66.0 -4.1 0.4 -1.3 8 7 33. Nebraska B10 12-2 20-11 18-13 65.4 +19.5 0.1 +0.1 9 35. St. John's BE 12-3 22-9 25-6 63.9 -6.7 <0.1 -0.3 9 6 37. UC San Diego BW 13-2 28-4 29-3 62.0 +13.3 0.0 0.0 10 12 38. Penn St. B10 12-3 20-11 21-10 61.0 -9.2 <0.1 -1.2 10 7
Other Big Ten teams weren't so lucky: Ohio State was tripped up at home by Michigan State 69-62, and Penn State fell at home to Indiana 77-71. In the Big Twelve Baylor was crushed by Iowa State 74-55 and the Big East's St. John's hit a roadblock at Creighton by a point and only beat Butler by 8 at home. But get this: UC San Diego, whom I've been talking about for weeks, made another leap from 12 to 10-seed after beating Fullerton State 90-51 on the road. The Tritons are looking legit at-large worthy in the Big West!
The Bubble: Ole Miss did their best to escape the bubble but the bubble caught them by the ankle, if we count 8 teams up; the Rebels beat Georgia and switched seeds with the Bulldogs. But Dayton and Cincinnati both fell from 8-seeds onto the bubble (what's in the water in Ohio?) with the Flyers losing to George Washington by 20 points and Cincy dropping games at Kansas State and to Arizona. Both were close (3 points, 5 points) but the Bearcats are off to an 0-2 start in conference.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 40. Mississippi SEC 12-2 19-12 17-14 57.4 +7.9 0.2 -0.2 10 11p 41. Dayton A10 11-4 23-8 25-6 55.9 -9.9 0.0 0.0 11 8 42. Cincinnati B12 10-3 20-11 21-10 55.6 -12.1 <0.1 -0.7 11 8 43. Louisville ACC 10-5 21-10 23-8 54.9 +13.8 0.0 0.0 11 44. Georgia SEC 12-2 19-12 18-13 54.5 -2.6 0.2 -0.7 11p 10 45. North Carolina ACC 9-6 20-12 21-11 53.6 -9.6 0.0 0.0 11p 9 46. SMU ACC 11-3 23-8 26-5 52.6 -4.1 0.0 0.0 12p 11 47. New Mexico MWC 12-3 23-8 22-9 50.3 +5.8 0.0 0.0 12p
How about them Cardinals? Two years removed from a 4-28 record and they just upset North Carolina, tumbling the Tar Heels to the play-in game while Louisville enters as an 11-seed. Another ACC team, SMU, lost big to Duke (89-62) and remained bubble-bound. If they all stay in, the ACC has six teams but the odds say the league ends up with 4 or 5. Finally, New Mexico pops back in after topping Nevada, and basically avoiding the upsets/big losses that plagued the teams that fell below the waterline...
Speaking of which: Oklahoma suffered their first loss and it was a doozy, 107-79 at Alabama. It puts the Sooners in 50/50 territory as far as the tournament is concerned, with our projections calling for 4 to 6 more wins all year and 11 to 13 losses. Another SEC newcomer, Texas, hit a rough patch at Texas A&M losing 80-60 and falling out from a 10-seed. BYU lost at Houston by 31 points but a win over Arizona State balanced that out; their Dance Chance rose +1.0% but the Cougars slipped off the play-in line. UC Irvine isn't the Big West favorite any more but they're keeping things close as 2nd team out right now at 13-2.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 48. Oklahoma SEC 13-1 19-12 17-14 49.2 -2.8 <0.1 0.0 11 49. UC Irvine BW 13-2 27-5 29-3 49.0 +3.7 0.0 0.0 50. BYU B12 10-3 19-12 19-12 48.8 +1.0 <0.1 -0.1 12p 51. Texas SEC 11-3 18-13 16-15 48.5 -9.8 <0.1 -0.6 10 52. St. Bonaventure A10 14-1 26-5 28-3 44.3 +10.7 0.0 0.0 53. Saint Mary's WCC 13-3 22-9 23-8 43.8 +3.8 0.0 0.0 54. Washington St. WCC 13-3 22-9 22-9 42.0 +2.1 0.0 0.0 55. VCU A10 11-4 23-8 26-5 39.8 -0.5 0.0 0.0
The Atlantic 10's St. Bonaventure has been hiding from us, too; the Bonnies are 14-1! and up over 10% after upsetting VCU, who remains in the Second Four Out. Right now only Gonzaga represents the West Coast Conference but St. Mary's and Washington State are within striking distance, both 13-3 and projected to be 22-9 before the WCC tourney.
More teams of note below: Creighton lost to Marquette but it was a road game, and beating St. John's helped them more than the loss hurt it seems. But the bigger Big East winner was Villanova who jumped 16.4% mainly from beating DePaul 100-56. Indiana kept themselves in the hunt by winning two Big Ten games and have won 8 of their last 9.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 57. Creighton BE 9-6 18-13 18-13 36.7 +9.7 0.0 0.0 58. Indiana B10 12-3 17-14 14-17 36.6 +8.7 0.0 0.0 59. Iowa B10 10-4 17-14 16-15 36.4 -11.3 0.0 0.0 12p 60. Drake MVC 12-2 24-6 26-4 34.5 -17.8 0.0 0.0 12 11 61. Villanova BE 10-5 18-13 19-12 33.9 +16.4 0.0 0.0 76. Lipscomb ASun 10-5 24-7 26-5 22.6 +11.9 0.0 0.0 13 13 77. Oregon St. WCC 12-4 21-10 22-9 22.5 -18.5 0.0 0.0
The state of Iowa took a hit as both Iowa and Drake lost ground big time. The Hawkeyes had just clawed themselves into a perch as Last Team In for the past two weeks but were knocked off by the 116-85 loss at Wisconsin. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, lost their 2nd straight game after 12 wins; they're still the Missouri Valley favorites but their at-large odds fall from 50/50 to 1 in 3. Lipscomb still has meager at-large odds but they basically doubled them last week with two road wins, including a 32-point win over North Florida. Oregon State's odds in the WCC sank after losing 82-61 to Loyola Marymount.
Speaking of sinking, Butler is the definition of a sinking team as they've now lost seven in a row. This is the only team to beat Mississippi State! Their schedule has been brutal over that stretch, but at 7-8 their odds are dwindling. Utah took an even worse hit—the worst in the Dance Chance!—down 24.3% to single digits after losing to Baylor by 25 and Texas Tech by 28. Colorado also lost twice, including an 81-61 pounding at ASU. And North Dakota State, who just nabbed the status of front-runner in the Summit, gave it up with two home losses in that conference. (But they just won the FCS football championship, so I'm sure the school is ok with that trade-off).
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 85. Butler BE 7-8 15-16 14-17 11.0 -10.7 0.0 0.0 86. Utah B12 8-5 15-16 13-18 9.5 -24.3 0.0 0.0 100. Colorado B12 9-4 14-17 11-20 7.7 -11.1 0.0 0.0 103. North Dakota St. Sum 11-6 22-9 23-8 7.1 -11.6 0.0 0.0 13 116. DePaul BE 9-6 15-16 12-19 4.7 -9.2 0.0 0.0 119. Florida Atlantic Amer 8-7 18-13 19-12 4.4 -12.9 0.0 0.0 122. N.C. State ACC 8-6 15-16 14-17 3.4 -9.0 0.0 0.0 138. Louisiana Tech CUSA 11-4 19-12 19-12 1.5 -11.8 0.0 0.0
DePaul lost to UConn and Villanova as expected, but the latter was a 100-56 beatdown that wasn't expected. Florida Atlantic has been fading from my pre-season (basically, last-season) ratings all year and a 90-62 loss to Memphis was the last straw as they drop about 75% of their remaining at-large hope. NC State also had a remarkable season—last year. This year's squad just lost to middle-of-the-pack ACC teams Virginia and Wake Forest. Finally, Louisiana Tech dumps almost 90% of their remaining odds, from 13.3% to 1.5%. The reason? Back to back losses to UTEP by 10 and New Mexico State by 30. Ouch. At least they beat "Rust" 108-60 prior to that. I'm not kidding, Rust College, founded in 1866, one of the oldest HBCU's still in existence. Learn something new every day.
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