One month until the main part of the regular season is over and the 1-seeds are almost set. Nothing is certain and the conference championships can change everything, but right now it looks like Purdue, Houston, Arizona, and UConn are in the driver's seat. Or rather, the Boilermakers are driving, the Cougars are in shotgun, and the Wildcats and Huskies are in the back set of a 4-passenger vehicle.
[ Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/11 2/04]
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Now Proj Proj
1. Purdue B10 22-2 28-3 100.0 0.0 97.2 1 1 1
2. Houston B12 21-3 27-4 100.0 0.0 91.4 1 1 1
3. Arizona P12 19-5 26-5 100.0 0.0 66.3 1 1 1
4. Connecticut BE 22-2 27-4 100.0 0.0 64.0 1 1 1
5. Iowa St. B12 18-5 24-7 100.0 +0.3 24.6 2 2 2
6. North Carolina ACC 19-5 25-6 100.0 +0.1 11.9 2 2 2
7. Alabama SEC 17-7 23-8 >99.9 0.0 12.0 3 2 2
8. Auburn SEC 19-5 25-6 99.9 +0.6 7.8 2 2 3
9. Tennessee SEC 17-6 23-8 99.9 0.0 5.5 3 3 2
Purdue and Houston are near locks for a 1-seed at this point, meaning they won't have to win their league tournament and Purdue might be able to withstand a first-game loss. Meanwhile Arizona and Connecticut moved from about 50/50 to nearly 2/3 likely to be 1-seeds after they both won twice last week. The Wildcats won two on the road including a triple-overtime victory at Utah.
The two seeds are coming into view, too. Iowa State and North Carolina join the 100% club, the former after beating both Texas and TCU, the latter after losing to Clemson at home and recovering to win at Miami 75-72. The Tar Heels were so close they could survive the loss. The Cyclones have a solid 1 in 4 shot at a 1-seed which shows the potential value of their remaining Big Twelve schedule (and tournament) compared to UNC's remaining ACC schedule. Both will probably have to win their conference tournament to get a 1-seed.
The same goes for Alabama, Auburn, and Tennessee in the SEC. The Tide rank highest in Strength which gives them an edge, but they lost badly at Auburn (99-81) after which the Tigers stumbled badly at Florida (81-65), and Tennessee got bashed at Texas A&M (85-69). Losing like that won't get you a 1-seed; one of the three needs to separate from the pack.
[ Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/11 2/04]
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Now Proj Proj
10. Kansas B12 19-5 22-9 99.9 +0.6 3.4 2 3 3
11. Marquette BE 18-5 23-8 99.9 +0.6 8.3 3 3 3
12. BYU B12 17-6 23-8 99.1 -0.1 3.8 6 3 3
13. Baylor B12 17-6 22-9 99.0 +0.9 3.1 3 4 4
14. Duke ACC 18-5 24-7 97.9 +2.1 0.3 4 4 4
15. Creighton BE 17-7 22-9 96.1 +0.8 0.2 4 4 5
16. Clemson ACC 16-7 22-9 95.3 +16.0 <0.1 4 4 7
The Big Twelve has three more possible 1-seeds in Kansas, BYU, and Baylor. The "Now" seed shows Kansas being the closest at a 2-seed if the teams were selected today, but expected to drop to a 3-seed, just as Baylor is pegged to drop from a 3- to a 4-seed. All three have a small but real shot at a 1-seed but have to nearly win out including the Big Twelve tournament to make that happen. The Jayhawks stumbled at Kansas State last Monday but the home win over Baylor put them a sliver away from 100% lock status, while the Bears beat Texas Tech before that loss to stay on track for a 4-seed. The Cougars lost to Oklahoma then beat K-State and pretty much treaded water with their 3-seed projection remaining. Their current status is a 6-seed, however, so they can't afford many more surprises.
The ACC's #2 and #3 team are Duke and Clemson, and their 1-seed odds are just 0.3% and <0.1%. Even an ACC tournament win probably won't do it unless they win out before that. Clemson got a huge win over 2-seed North Carolina—on the road—hence their jump from a 7-seed to a 4-seed, but there just aren't many Quad One wins along their remaining path. Duke beat punching bags Notre Dame and B.C. and has more résumé booster left than the Tigers but it makes the route tougher.
Marquette (18-5) has a decent 8% shot at a 1-seed, while Creighton's (17-7) odds are just 0.2%. The Eagles are only 2 spots ahead in Strength but have two fewer losses than the Jays, who manage to move up a seed despite an overtime loss at Providence last week (the road win at Xavier helped).
[ Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/11 2/04]
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Now Proj Proj
17. Illinois B10 17-6 23-8 95.1 +0.5 0.3 5 5 5
18. New Mexico MWC 19-5 24-7 93.2 -2.5 <0.1 7 5 4
19. Colorado St. MWC 19-5 24-7 89.8 +6.3 -- 6 5 6
20. Utah St. MWC 20-4 27-6 89.5 -0.5 -- 5 5 5
21. Dayton A10 19-4 25-5 87.9 +1.6 -- 5 6 6
22. Indiana St. MVC 22-3 27-4 87.6 +7.7 -- 4 6 7
23. San Diego St. MWC 18-6 23-8 87.6 +0.8 <0.1 5 6 5
24. Wisconsin B10 16-8 20-11 87.3 -8.0 <0.1 6 6 4
25. TCU B12 16-7 21-10 84.1 -0.7 -- 8 7 6
26. Oklahoma B12 18-6 21-10 83.1 +10.4 <0.1 7 7 9
27. Michigan St. B10 15-9 20-11 79.4 -0.4 <0.1 11p 7 7
28. Wake Forest ACC 16-7 21-10 75.7 +11.6 -- 10 7 10
29. South Carolina SEC 21-3 24-7 75.7 +1.7 -- 6 8 8
30. Nevada MWC 19-5 24-8 75.6 +19.1 -- 7 8 11
The Mountain West is loaded with likely at-large bids; the only question is who wins the conference. Right now it's San Diego State and Utah State who track as 5-seeds while Colorado State and New Mexico are 6- and 7-seeds respectively, but when it all settles the Lobos are projected to finish just ahead of the Rams and Aggies, all 5-seeds with the Aztecs projected a 6-seed. It's been like this all season with the teams jumping over each other every week and it's still not close to being settled. And adding to the mix, Nevada jumps from an 11-seed to an 8-seed after beating both Utah State and SDSU last week. New Mexico lost to UNLV at home on Saturday dropping them a seed, while Colorado State's two wins bump them up a notch.
The Big Ten has three teams in this range. Michigan State's win over Illinois didn't budge either one's projection—the Illini remain a 5-seed, the Spartans a 7-seed—but it affected MSU's current status. Last week they were 14-8 and were not in the "current" seeding, but after losing to Minnesota and beating Illinois, they show up as a play-in team at 15-9. Meanwhile Wisconsin suffered their 3rd and 4th loss in a row and dropped from a 4-seed to a 6-seed. All three still have a tiny shot at a 1-seed, due to the strength of the Big Ten and the chance to beat Purdue twice (once in the regular season, once more in the Big Ten tournament).
Other big moves here include Oklahoma, up two seeds after beating 3-seed BYU and Oklahoma State last week, and Wake Forest, who is up three seeds to a 7-seed after beating Georgia Tech and NC State. The Deacons are 16-7 and still just a 10-seed if Selection Sunday were today but their outlook is good.
Speaking of current status, mid-Major Big Fish Indiana State and Dayton show as a 4-seed and 5-seed, respectively, right now but are both set to drift down to 6-seeds. Neither has a lot of upside based on future schedule and downside if they are upset, as the Flyers were on Sunday, 49-47, at VCU.
[ Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/11 2/04]
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Now Proj Proj
31. Kentucky SEC 16-7 21-10 75.4 -0.6 -- 9 8 8
32. Saint Mary's WCC 20-6 24-7 74.9 +4.2 -- 8 8 9
33. Texas Tech B12 17-6 21-10 74.6 -1.2 -- 9 9 8
34. Florida Atlantic Amer 19-5 24-7 74.2 -5.8 -- 8 9 6
35. Florida SEC 16-7 21-10 72.9 +15.9 -- 10 9 11
36. Virginia ACC 19-5 22-9 70.7 +19.9 -- 7 9 12p
37. Texas B12 16-8 19-12 70.2 +1.5 -- 10 10 9
38. Mississippi St. SEC 16-8 20-11 67.4 +11.9 -- 11 10 11p
39. Nebraska B10 17-8 21-10 65.1 -3.4 -- 8 10 9
40. Washington St. P12 18-6 23-8 64.2 +3.2 -- 9 10 11
41. Boise St. MWC 16-8 21-10 62.8 -13.6 -- 12p 11 7
Kentucky's home loss to Gonzaga didn't ding them too much, offset a bit by their 109-77 win over Vandy, and they remain a projected 8-seed. But Florida Atlantic's rough week—an overtime loss at UAB and overtime win at Wichita State—dumped the Owls 3 seeds to a 9-seed, their worst showing of the year so far.
Florida beat 2-seed Auburn 81-65 and that was enough to bounce the Gators up to a 9-seed, while Virginia reaches the same mark after being a 12-seed play-in team last week. The Cavaliers are 19-5 after beating Miami and FSU, which would be good enough for a 7-seed at the moment but they look to finish about 22-9.
The worst drop here was Boise State, who looked to finish a 7-seed last week but after losses to Colorado State and Utah State—both by double digits—look to be on the bubble for the rest of the season. Right now they might be the last team in but should win most of their remaining games and have just a bit of leeway.
[ Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/11 2/04]
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Now Proj Proj
42. Texas A&M SEC 15-8 19-12 62.4 +27.1 -- 11
43. Northwestern B10 17-7 21-10 61.5 +5.9 -- 9 11 11p
44. Gonzaga WCC 18-6 23-7 61.5 +10.6 -- 12p 11p 12p
45. Cincinnati B12 15-8 19-12 59.4 -8.6 -- 11p 10
46. Butler BE 16-8 20-11 58.4 -2.8 -- 11 12p 10
47. Utah P12 15-9 20-11 57.8 -17.8 -- 12p 8
48. Colorado P12 16-8 21-10 51.6 -10.3 -- 10
49. Drake MVC 20-5 25-6 49.9 +8.2 -- 10
50. Grand Canyon WAC 22-2 29-3 45.2 +3.1 -- 11 12 12
51. Mississippi SEC 18-5 22-9 43.8 -2.3 -- 11p
52. St. John's BE 14-10 19-12 38.6 -11.7 --
53. Pittsburgh ACC 15-8 19-12 36.2 +2.1 --
54. Villanova BE 13-11 17-14 34.0 -4.0 --
55. SMU Amer 17-7 22-9 34.0 +4.9 --
The Bubble: Texas A&M is probably not in right now at 15-8, and they weren't projected to make it last week but since then the Aggies beat 3-seed Tennessee 85-69 and even a 4-4 finish should put them on the right side of things going into the SEC tournament. Two other teams also show up in the projected results as play-in teams but not the current snapshot: Cincinnati, who lost to Houston 67-62 at home, falls to an 11-seed and Utah lost to Arizona (in triple overtime) and Arizona State, both at home, and falls from a comfortable 8-seed to the projected Last Team In. Neither the Bearcats (15-8) or the Utes (15-9) would make the tournament if it were held today and even their projected results suggest the conference tournaments will determine their fates.
The other projected play-in teams are two Bulldogs, Gonzaga and Butler. The Zags beat Kentucky on the road but it didn't take them out of the play-in sphere. It did, however, put them "in" right now, which they weren't last week. It's still touch and go for them despite an over 10% increase in their tournament odds (bringing them to a still-uncertain 61.5%). Butler lost to UConn but perhaps more importantly only beat Providence by three points at home, with the net result being the Bulldogs fall from a 10-seed.
Three teams that are "in" right now but projected to "fall out" are Drake, Grand Canyon, and Mississippi. Drake (yet another Bulldog team) is 20-5 which might be good enough for a 10-seed right now but any future loss—or poor showing in their tournament—puts them out. The Grand Canyon Lopes are an incredible 20-2, but again, any further loss will drop them to the point where they need to win the WAC tournament to get in—but unlike Drake, they're a big favorite to do so. Ole Miss has been below the cut-line all year in terms of Selection Sunday projection, while being seeded in a "current" sense. Even at 18-5 they only show as a play-in team right now due to their dearth of good wins, and project to the Last Four Out due to probably suffering 4 more losses. But unlike the other two teams, the Rebels can get in with a good showing in the SEC tournament without having to win it.
The same goes for 14-10 St. John's, 15-8 Pitt, and even 13-11 Villanova: a strong finish, or a solid conference tournament run could mean a bid for these teams. But we see all three ending with 12+ losses which is a tough sell. SMU might only finish with 9 losses but in the American Athletic it's tougher to make up ground in their tournament.
[ Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/11 2/04]
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Now Proj Proj
61. Miami FL ACC 15-9 18-13 23.5 -17.8 --
62. Seton Hall BE 15-9 18-13 22.9 -19.9 --
65. Virginia Tech ACC 13-10 17-14 18.1 -16.5 --
68. Iowa B10 14-10 17-14 15.7 -12.6 --
70. Bradley MVC 17-8 21-10 11.6 -16.0 --
72. Appalachian St. SB 20-5 25-6 9.2 -10.4 --
79. Maryland B10 13-11 16-15 5.6 -14.2 --
82. UC Irvine BW 18-7 24-8 5.0 -12.5 -- 13 13 13
87. Georgia SEC 14-10 17-14 3.7 -10.6 --
Speaking of losing ground, here's a recap of teams that lost big last week.
- Miami's been up and down this season but at 15-9 things are getting dicey as the losses add up; they're down from over 40% last week to under 25% this week after falling to Virginia and North Carolina.
- Seton Hall drops even more—almost 20%—after edging Georgetown by 6 points and home and losing to Villanova 80-54. This was more due the downgrade in Strength than the loss, though they to fall to 15-9 which isn't great
- Virginia Tech lost to 8-16 Notre Dame and it was their 10th loss. Enough said.
- Iowa also suffered their 10th loss, to Penn State, and it could have been worse as a 20-point comeback win over Minnesota limited the damage to a -15.7% drop
- Bradley lost over half their odds, down 16% to 11.6%, as the Braves lost to Evansville and Drake last week
- Appalachian State was 19-4 last week with a nearly 20% chance of nabbing an at-large bid, but it's now less than 10% likely the 20-5 Mountaineers will manage it after losing to Texas State
- Maryland bled away almost 75% of their chances, from nearly 20% to just over 5%, as the Terps lost to Rutgers at home and became Ohio State's first win in six tries in a double overtime home loss
- UC Irvine (18-7) somehow showed a decent shot (17.5%) at an at-large last week—before their loss to UC Riverside (10-15) dropped that to a still-surprising 5.0%. The road win at USC helps and three of their losses are to the Mountain West elite, but 7 losses seems far too high for a 1-bid league to show even a 1 in 20 chance. All the small-conference teams with a decent chance (Grand Canyon, Princeton, James Madison, Samford, and McNeese State) have just 2 or 3 losses and project to have no more than 4.
- Georgia was nearly at 25% odds two weeks ago even at 14-6, but four more losses have dumped them to need-a-miracle-run status at 3.7%. The Arkansas loss was the big one, dropping the Bulldogs to 14-10
2024's Best Conference Race? Easily the Mountain West
Which conference race is the most interesting, most compelling, most up in the air, and most important?
It's not the Big Twelve. They might be the best conference (ok they are), but Houston pretty much has that one wrapped up—not from a conference standings standpoint, where things are pretty tight, but from a "who is the best team in the conference?" standpoint. And from "who is going to be the top seed from this conference?" standpoint.
Because while there are many tight conference races by wins and losses, the teams overall tend to fall into groups, with one rising above the rest over all games of the season.
Take the Big Ten. Purdue is only a few games ahead of Illinois, and there's a tight race in the rest of the pack. But Purdue looks like a 1-seed, and no other teams looks much better than a 5-seed right now.
So cross off the Big Ten. Big East? UConn has just 1 conference loss, and Marquette 3. Everyone else has 5 losses. Next!
ACC? North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia are the competitors right now. Really? Who cares. North Carolina is gunning for a 1-seed, the rest look like also-rans. The Cavs look like a 9-seed to us, Duke a common 4-seed. No big race there.
Pac-12? You've gotta be kidding. Arizona is a likely 1-seed and that might be the conference's only bid. (We project three teams from the Pac-12, and right now we show three teams in: 1-seed Arizona, 10-seed Washington State, and 12-seed play-in Utah as the Last Team In. The Pac-12 also has the First Team Out, Colorado, so there could easily be 4 teams in...or just 2).
Anyway it's not the Pac-12.
How about the SEC? That's the first good answer yet. Seven teams have 2, 3, or 4 conference losses. More importantly, they have three teams—Alabama, Auburn, and Tennessee—neck and neck gunning for a 2-seed. Add in 20-3 South Carolina and you have a great conference race. But it's not the best.
No, the best is the Mountain West. Six teams are in the running for the Big Dance. And no one knows who the best team in the conference is, nor who will win the regular season or who should be favored in the conference tournament.
Right now we project New Mexico, Utah State, and Colorado State as 5-seeds; San Diego State as a 6-seed; Nevada an 8-seed; and Boise State (last week a 7-seed) as an 11-seed.
Dance Chance for games through Sunday, February 11
Though we show six teams projected to get in, when you add up the odds it comes out to an expectation for five teams to make it from the MWC.
The conference race is super-close, too:
Utah State has 3 losses, and six other teams have 4 losses. It's almost a fool's errand to try to pick the regular-season winner.
So who is going to win the conference tournament? Let's look at their Strength ratings:
# Team Record Rating 18. New Mexico 19-5 18.55 27. Colorado St. 19-5 16.49 29. San Diego St. 18-6 16.40 35. Utah St. 20-4 16.10 47. Nevada 19-5 14.27 49. Boise St. 16-8 14.18New Mexico has the edge, and after that a cluster of three teams (Colorado State, SDSU, and Utah State) are too close to call as 2nd best. Nevada and Boise lag behind.
But the venue is Las Vegas, which might give Nevada a boost, and maybe even UNLV. Regardless, most probably favor San Diego State after last year's NCAA tournament run, and they rank best in Pomeroy of the six contenders by a whisker over New Mexico.
So I'd say New Mexico and SDSU are co-favorites, with Colorado State and Utah State both viable. Nevada and especially Boise would be longer shots, with UNLV a very long shot as home favorite.
Regardless, this is the most interesting conference race of the year. The Mountain West is a legit Major conference in 2024 and should have more teams (5) than the Pac-12 (3) and probably the same as the ACC (5). The Big Ten and Big East might only have five teams each. Only the Big Twelve (8-9 teams) and SEC (7-ish) look certain to have more teams than the Mountain West, who could even end up #3 with six teams in.
That's why every game from here on out is important, and if you want to scout the Big Dance properly you have to pay attention to the Mountain West—as much as almost any other conference.
Posted on February 13, 2024 at 07:58 PM in analysis, commentary | Permalink | Comments (0)
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