Week 4 and things are really starting to happen in college basketball, mainly due to all the tournaments around Thanksgiving time that pit the best from all conferences. In some ways it's the best that college basketball gets until March Madness. Too bad it happens when it has to share the stage with college football, which is heading into the home stretch. Ah well.
Auburn once again came away the big winner and are completely deserving of the projected top seed, and now has a 2 in 3 chance to remain at the top line. The Tigers won the Maui Invitational, beating Iowa State, North Carolina, and a surging Memphis team. Right behind them is Tennessee, also 7-0 and 78-35 winners over UT-Martin last week, giving the SEC two solid 1-seeds. The rest of the 1-line didn't fare so well last week in extra periods, as Gonzaga lost in overtime to West Virginia and Houston lost 2 of 3 in the Players Era tourney in Las Vegas, both in overtime! Both teams are favored in every game going forward so they still project to the top line but Houston lost a whopping 14% of its odds to remain there.
Record Dance Chance 12/01/2024 Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 1. Auburn SEC 7-0 27-4 31-0 97.6 +2.6 67.0 +10.8 1 1 2. Tennessee SEC 7-0 26-5 29-2 94.1 +3.2 47.6 +9.5 1 1 3. Gonzaga WCC 7-1 28-3 30-1 93.7 +0.3 32.5 -6.8 1 1 4. Houston B12 4-3 25-6 28-3 91.0 -0.2 19.5 -14.0 1 1 5. Kentucky SEC 7-0 25-6 27-4 90.7 +7.2 36.0 +14.3 2 2 6. Duke ACC 5-2 25-6 28-3 87.0 +1.3 18.0 -0.2 2 2 7. Alabama SEC 6-2 22-9 25-6 86.3 +2.3 25.6 -1.7 2 2 8. Illinois B10 6-1 24-7 28-3 83.3 +8.8 22.5 +9.6 2 3
Alabama was one of the teams to edge Houston last week, though they lost to Oregon in the tourney final. Along with Kentucky, who now ranks as the 3rd most likely team to end up a 1-seed, and the SEC has four teams in the 1- and 2-seed lines; their performance in the pre-conference season makes the SEC look like the best conference in the post Pac-12 era. Duke, who lost to the Wildcats on a neutral court a few weeks ago, lost their 2nd close on a neutral court, this time to Kansas, 75-72 in Las Vegas. Meanwhile Illinois took the mantle of Big Ten leader with wins over Arkansas (90-77), and Little Rock (92-34!). Their only loss is to Alabama.
Purdue didn't lose last week but they continue to revise downward from being last year's #2 team. Last week they beat NC State by 10 and Ole Miss by just 2 points. And of course last year's #1 team is stumbling much worse, losing three straight last week and falling from a 2-seed to a 4-seed. UConn lost to Memphis, Colorado, and Dayton in the Maui Invitational. The last game was an 18 point loss, but the first two were overtime and by 1 point, so they could have gone either way. Kansas on the other hand is rebounding from last year's disappointing finish, as the win over Duke shows. The Jayhawks, #1 in the AP poll, move here from a 6-seed to a 4-seed.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 10. Purdue B10 7-1 23-8 28-3 79.6 -2.7 12.8 -5.3 3 3 14. Kansas B12 7-0 22-9 23-8 74.2 +14.0 9.1 +4.3 4 6 15. Connecticut BE 5-3 23-8 27-4 73.3 -14.2 3.3 -21.8 4 2 17. Florida SEC 8-0 22-9 24-7 71.8 +12.5 10.2 +5.7 5 6 18. North Carolina ACC 4-3 23-9 25-7 71.5 -0.1 4.4 -3.8 5 4 20. Arizona B12 3-4 20-11 25-6 67.8 -7.1 3.0 -4.7 5 3 26. Oregon B10 8-0 21-10 22-9 61.1 +18.2 2.0 +0.9 7 12p
North Carolina didn't have much luck in Maui; they beat Dayton but fell to Auburn and then Michigan State in overtime. And Arizona has gotten off to a 3-4 start following losses to Oklahoma and West Virginia in the Bahamas. But Florida is on the move winning the ESPN Events tourney beating Wake Forest and crushing Wichita State 88-51, moving up two seeds. And Oregon is surging; the Ducks won the Players Era tournament in Las Vegas by beating Texas A&M, San Diego State, and Alabama, going from a bubble team play-in to a solid 7-seed!
A team that almost made the biggest splash possible is Memphis. The Tigers upset UConn (before everyone was doing it), then beat Michigan State before falling to Auburn in the Maui final. Still, they jump from a near-bubble 11-seed to a 7-seed. Maryland gained 10% in the Dance Chance the old-fashioned way, however: beating up on hapless foes like Bucknell (91-67) and Alcorn State (96-58). Big Ten compatriot Penn State lost ground (2 seeds) after losing to Clemson in the Sunshine Slam tourney in Daytona, while the Tigers jumped to a 10-seed.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 27. Memphis Amer 6-1 24-7 27-4 60.8 +14.4 0.5 +0.4 7 11 28. Maryland B10 7-1 22-10 23-9 59.4 +10.0 1.3 +0.1 7 9 30. Penn St. B10 7-1 21-10 23-8 58.9 -0.3 1.4 -2.1 8 6 32. Texas SEC 6-1 20-11 21-10 56.6 -2.0 2.4 -0.6 8 7 36. San Diego St. MWC 4-2 21-8 23-6 55.5 +15.0 0.1 0.0 9 38. Dayton A10 6-2 24-7 26-5 54.5 +13.3 <0.1 0.0 10 12 40. Clemson ACC 7-1 22-9 25-6 54.2 +11.7 0.5 -0.1 10 12p
Texas apparently dropped a seed for not beating Delaware State by enough (90-68), or perhaps the strengthening SEC is making their future look a bit grim? As mentioned above, San Diego State had a strong showing in Vegas, beating Creighton, falling to Oregon, but rebounding by beating 1-seed Houston in overtime; that was enough to make them a 9-seed after being unseeded last week. And Dayton improved their outlook despite dropping 2 of 3 games in Maui: the Flyers lost to North Carolina by 2, to Iowa State by 5, then beat Connecticut by 18.
Top of the bubble: The SEC has 10 teams in the seeding right now so anyone on the bubble from that conference is questionable. Texas A&M seems in pretty good shape after their 2-1 Players Era showing (loss to Oregon, beat Creighton and Rutgers), while Georgia enters as a play-in team after crushing Jacksonville 102-56. The Mountain West bubble teams rarely get the nod, however, and right now New Mexico (who beat USC but lost to Arizona State in Palm Springs) and Boise State (who lost to Boston College in the Cayman Islands Classic final) are very borderline. Drake shouldn't count in a bubble bid, either, but they're favored to win the Missouri Valley.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 41. Texas A&M SEC 6-2 18-13 19-12 52.2 +2.3 2.3 -1.0 11 9 42. Michigan B10 6-1 19-12 19-12 50.8 +14.5 1.6 +1.0 11 43. New Mexico MWC 6-2 22-9 25-6 49.9 +0.9 0.1 0.0 11 10 44. Boise St. MWC 5-2 22-9 25-6 49.2 -2.0 <0.1 -0.3 11p 9 45. UCLA B10 6-1 19-12 17-14 48.7 +11.3 1.1 +0.7 11p 46. Drake MVC 7-0 24-5 28-1 44.9 -3.4 <0.1 0.0 12 10 47. Georgia SEC 7-1 19-12 16-15 44.7 +11.0 0.7 +0.5 12p 48. Nebraska B10 6-1 17-12 17-12 43.7 +2.2 0.4 -0.3 12p
The Big Ten has three teams that are, at this early stage, right in the cusp: Michigan enters as an 11-seed after beating Virginia Tech and Xavier in the Fort Myers Tip-Off; UCLA comes in as a play-in following an 88-43 win over Southern Utah (only loss: New Mexico); and Nebraska is the last team in this week after a 6-1 start. That makes 11 Big Ten teams in the seedings, so borderline teams probably won't make it.
Another Big Ten team, Iowa, has been just below the bubble for three weeks now. For them, and for SEC teams Missouri and Arkansas, being below the waterline would mean being left out. The Razorbacks lost to the Big Ten's Illinois last week but also beat MD Eastern Shore 119-35, raising their Dance Chance odds over 10%. The problem is they have a good chance to finish with a losing record. For SMU and Florida State life is easier, since there are only four ACC teams in the seedings and competition in that league should be easier. The Mustangs won the Acrisure Holiday Invitational in Palm Springs while the Seminoles are off to their best start since 2020. They went 9-23 two years ago, if you recall.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 49. San Francisco WCC 6-2 22-9 25-6 42.5 -4.3 <0.1 0.0 10 50. SMU ACC 6-2 21-10 24-7 42.1 +8.9 <0.1 0.0 51. Iowa B10 6-1 18-13 16-15 38.4 +2.4 0.4 +0.1 52. Missouri SEC 6-1 18-13 16-15 37.6 +7.2 0.4 +0.1 53. Florida St. ACC 7-1 20-11 20-11 37.1 +5.5 <0.1 0.0 54. Washington St. WCC 6-2 21-10 23-8 36.9 -9.5 <0.1 -0.2 11 55. Butler BE 6-1 19-12 18-13 36.6 +12.8 <0.1 0.0 56. Arkansas SEC 5-2 17-14 15-16 36.4 +10.9 0.1 0.0
San Francisco and Washington State hope to make the West Coast Conference more than a two-bid league but both drop out this week. The Dons lost to Clemson in Dayton Beach but are the First Team Out right now, while new conference member WSU fell to SMU in Palm Spring. Butler from the Big East won a tournament in Tempe to get back near the action.
Speaking of the Big East, stalwart Creighton is flailing a bit, dropping out of the seedings after losing two of three games in the Players Era tournament in Las Vegas. And Florida Atlantic's up-and-down early season has veered to the downside with a home loss to Florida Gulf Coast, their 3rd in a row, putting the Owls at 4-5. They beat Indiana State badly in the opener, but the Sycamores are not last year's team, either, as they have showed via a 5-4 start, the latest loss coming in Nassau to Arkansas State. They rebounded to beat Iona and Tarleton State, but their tournament odds are a dismal 4.7% now. Louisiana Tech is another mid-major falling on hard times with a 73-70 home loss to Southern. Though the 7-1 Bulldogs should finish with a stellar record, their light CUSA schedule won't do them any favors. They play Memphis on Wednesday which is their last chance to get a notable win.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 63. Creighton BE 5-3 18-13 21-10 32.6 -12.0 <0.1 -0.2 11p 64. Florida Atlantic Amer 4-5 20-11 24-7 31.7 -13.1 0.0 -0.1 11 65. Louisville ACC 5-2 18-13 16-15 31.5 +17.6 <0.1 +0.1 70. West Virginia B12 5-2 16-15 12-19 27.7 +17.6 <0.1 +0.1 73. Louisiana Tech CUSA 7-1 23-8 28-3 25.4 -12.6 0.0 -0.1 12 75. Arizona St. B12 7-1 16-15 11-20 24.8 +11.1 0.1 +0.1 76. TCU B12 4-3 15-16 16-15 22.7 -13.3 0.0 -0.3 82. Stanford ACC 6-2 17-14 20-11 17.5 -12.4 0.0 -0.1 127. Miami FL ACC 3-4 13-18 15-16 7.0 -11.8 0.0 0.0 146. Indiana St. MVC 5-4 17-14 20-11 4.7 -12.8 0.0 0.0
The Big Twelve had mixed results, with TCU losing both of its games in the Acrisure Invitational but Arizona State won the Acrisure Classic (one of three Acrisure Palm Springs tournaments, yeah that's not confusing as fuck...). And West Virginia played THREE overtime games in the Battle 4 Atlantis, beating 1-seed Gonzaga, losing to Louisville, and beating Arizona. The Cardinals, like Florida State, are looking to turn the program around from disastrous previous seasons and so far, so good as they finished 2nd in the Battle 4 Atlantis. Other ACC teams above didn't fare so well last week: Stanford lost to Grand Canyon and Cal Poly, while Miami lost their 4th game in a row, this time at home to Charleston Southern.