Let's see what happened last week, up until Sunday's games (the 24th):
Auburn and Gonzaga solidified their hold on the 1-seed; Auburn's only game was a 102-69 win over North Alabama while Gonzaga beat San Diego State 80-67 and Long Beach State 84-41. Since then, however, Auburn has added wins over Iowa State and North Carolina, so don't expect them to lose their 1-seed, even if they lose to Memphis, the other "it" team right now (see below...). Houston, however, might not have a 1-seed next week after losing to Alabama Tuesday night, but before that they were 3-1 following an 80-44 win over Hofstra. And Tennessee joined the 1-seeds after crushing Virginia and Baylor by 22 and 15 points in the Bahamas.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 1. Auburn SEC 4-0 24-5 29-0 95.0 +4.0 56.2 +11.3 1 1 2. Gonzaga WCC 5-0 27-2 28-1 93.4 +7.0 39.3 +14.6 1 1 3. Houston B12 3-1 26-5 30-1 91.2 +2.1 33.5 -3.1 1 1 4. Tennessee SEC 6-0 26-5 30-1 90.9 +8.5 38.1 +11.6 1 2 5. Connecticut BE 4-0 25-4 29-0 87.5 +3.2 25.1 -0.2 2 1 6. Duke ACC 4-1 26-5 28-3 85.7 +10.1 18.2 +5.3 2 3 7. Alabama SEC 4-1 23-8 25-6 84.0 +6.9 27.3 +7.5 2 2 8. Kentucky SEC 5-0 24-7 26-5 83.5 +10.7 21.7 +7.1 2 3
UConn slipped from the 1-seed column and that was before their losses to Memphis and Colorado, so look for a bigger fall next Monday. Same goes for Duke, who moved up to a 2-seed after beating Arizona 69-55 on the road but fell to Kansas on Monday. Alabama held their 2-seed by beating Illinois and might be moving up since they beat Houston. Lots of interplay among the top seeds! And Kentucky joined the 2-seeds based on dominant performances against Jackson State and Lipscomb, and they don't face any tough teams until next week.
Purdue continues to correct from last year's rating, down another seed after losing to Marquette 76-58, a result that brings the Eagles up to the 3-line as well. As noted, Arizona and Illinois lost last week to Duke and Alabama. Starting at 2-2 dropped the Wildcat's 1-seed chances from 24.2% to just 7.7%.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 9. Purdue B10 5-1 23-7 27-3 82.3 -0.7 18.1 -8.2 3 2 10. Marquette BE 6-0 24-7 27-4 76.6 +14.6 8.2 +2.9 3 4 11. Arizona B12 2-2 21-8 26-3 74.9 -5.9 7.7 -16.5 3 2 12. Illinois B10 4-1 23-8 28-3 74.5 +1.8 12.9 -1.6 3 3 15. Iowa St. B12 3-0 20-9 25-4 67.3 -1.4 8.3 -4.8 4 4 16. Ohio St. B10 4-1 21-10 24-7 66.9 +17.1 8.1 +4.8 4 9 20. BYU B12 5-0 21-9 24-6 61.6 -1.0 4.4 -4.4 5 4 28. Saint Mary's WCC 6-0 23-7 24-6 55.1 -4.3 0.8 -1.6 7 5 32. Michigan St. B10 4-1 19-10 24-5 52.9 -4.1 2.9 -1.6 8 6 36. Maryland B10 5-1 21-11 19-13 49.4 +13.7 1.2 +0.8 9
Iowa State's odds actually slipped a bit from their 87-52 win over IU Indianapolis (formerly IUPUI), and this was before the Auburn loss which might actually help their power rating as they lost just 83-81 on a neutral court in Maui; they also beat Dayton so they might even move up! Ohio State leads a trio of Big Ten teams here, jumping from a NINE seed after beating Evansville by 50 and Campbell by 44. Maryland also had a good last week, beating Canisius 108-37 (!!) and Villanova 76-75. Michigan State's week wasn't as good; the Spartans struggled with Samford at home, winning by 8 points, enough to drop them two seeds. A bit harsh, maybe, but you struggle with Samford your rating goes down. Same thing happened to BYU and St. Mary's; the Cougars beat Mississippi Valley State 87-43 and that wasn't good enough to improve their Dance Chance odds! (MV is the worst-rated team in Kenpom) St. Mary's beat two Cal State teams, Stanislaus (non D-I) and Poly by 40 and 14.
Below: the bubble. Drake looks like the Missouri Valley winner right now, and they improved their bid odds by 18.6% by beating Miami, Florida Atlantic, and Vanderbilt to win the Charleston Classic. Speaking of the Owls, the dropped from a 6 to an 11 after losing twice in that tournament to start 4-4; they're still above the selection line but now Memphis is the favorite in the American Athletic conference—and this is before Memphis went on their crazy run this week beating UConn and Michigan State; they face Auburn tonight and if they win that, imagine where they will place in next Monday's Dance Chance?
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 38. Drake MVC 6-0 24-5 28-1 48.3 +18.6 <0.1 0.0 10 12 39. Texas Tech B12 5-1 20-11 20-11 48.2 -5.2 1.6 -3.2 10 7 40. San Francisco WCC 4-1 22-8 24-6 46.8 -1.2 0.1 -0.8 10 10 41. Washington St. WCC 5-1 21-9 23-7 46.4 -1.6 0.3 -0.5 11 10 42. Memphis Amer 4-0 21-8 24-5 46.4 +7.2 0.1 0.0 11 43. Florida Atlantic Amer 4-4 22-9 26-5 44.8 -11.4 <0.1 0.0 11 6 44. Creighton BE 4-1 20-11 23-8 44.6 -5.5 0.3 -2.7 11p 9 45. Colorado B12 4-0 18-11 17-12 44.0 -3.0 0.8 -1.9 11p 10 46. Oregon B10 5-0 19-12 20-11 42.9 +1.5 1.1 -1.0 12p 12p 47. Clemson ACC 4-1 19-11 24-6 42.5 +0.2 0.6 +0.1 12p 11p
Below are the teams just outside the bubble, including five Big Ten teams: Nebraska, Indiana, UCLA, Michigan, and Iowa. Nebraska is the first team out, which doesn't mean anything right now but there they are. They beat Creighton on the road which knocked the Bluejays from a 9-seed to the Last Four In, but it didn't quite project the 'Huskers to join them. UCLA's 33-point win over Fullerton State is what made them gain double digits.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 48. Nebraska B10 4-1 17-12 17-12 41.5 +9.1 0.7 -0.2 49. Dayton A10 5-0 22-7 25-4 41.2 -0.5 0.1 -0.4 12 11 50. McNeese Slnd 4-2 26-5 28-3 41.1 +9.3 0.0 0.0 12 12 51. San Diego St. MWC 2-1 19-10 21-8 40.5 -3.2 <0.1 -0.8 11p 52. Indiana B10 4-0 17-12 15-14 38.5 +7.9 0.5 +0.3 53. Louisiana Tech CUSA 4-0 22-6 26-2 38.0 +1.5 0.1 0.0 12 12 54. UCLA B10 5-1 17-14 14-17 37.4 +10.5 0.4 0.0 55. Michigan B10 4-1 17-13 15-15 36.3 +9.5 0.6 +0.2 56. Iowa B10 5-1 18-13 17-14 36.0 -0.7 0.3 -0.7 57. TCU B12 4-1 17-13 19-11 36.0 -5.4 0.3 -0.6 12p
Dayton, McNeese, and Louisiana Tech are all bubble teams that shouldn't need to worry about making it above the line, as they are favored to win the Atlantic 10, the Southland, and Conference-USA respectively. TCU fell from the play-in line after their 76-64 loss to Michigan.
Below, some more teams who had good fortune or bad luck last week that affected their odds a lot. First the good: Georgia gained over 10% despite suffering a loss to 3-seed Marquette; they bounced back with a win over 8-seed St. John's. Both games were in the Bahamas, but not part of any tournament. Fellow SEC team Missouri racked up blowout wins over Pacific (91-56) and Pine Bluff (112-63), while Florida State improved to 6-1 with wins over Hofstra, Temple, and UMass last week.
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 60. Georgia SEC 6-1 18-13 16-15 33.7 +10.3 0.2 +0.1 63. Florida St. ACC 6-1 19-12 19-12 31.6 +11.7 <0.1 +0.1 65. Missouri SEC 5-1 17-14 16-15 30.4 +13.2 0.3 +0.3 87. Colorado St. MWC 3-2 16-14 14-16 17.8 -11.6 <0.1 0.0 90. Charleston CAA 4-2 20-9 22-7 16.4 -10.3 0.0 0.0 13 13 97. Grand Canyon WAC 3-2 21-9 25-5 14.4 -11.0 0.0 0.0 13 13 117. Virginia Tech ACC 3-2 15-15 16-14 11.6 -14.0 0.0 0.0 146. Massachusetts A10 1-5 16-15 20-11 6.8 -10.3 0.0 0.0
On the downside, Colorado State took a hit with two losses, to Ole Miss 84-69, and UC Riverside 77-75 in overtime at home. The Rams have to turn things around if they want to compete for a bid in the Mountain West, which is very competitive and gets no breaks from the Selection Committee. Virginia Tech's odds of getting a bid out of the ACC fell by more than half after the Hokies lost to Jacksonville at home, 74-64. And UMass isn't looking too good these days after a 1-5 start. Their schedule clears up a bit from here, but so far they aren't even winning the easier games.
Charleston and Grand Canyon both took hits to their at-large hopes, as the Cougars were crushed by Rhode Island 91-53 and Grand Canyon lost to UC Davis at home. But both teams are still the favorite in their conference; they'll just have to win their tournaments.