SportsRatings: College Basketball

WOW Gonzaga

Gonzaga 101, Baylor 63

There were a lot of blowouts among Monday's season-openers, but most were ranked teams beating teams you don't hear much about for the rest of the year.

Like Alabama 110, UNC-Asheville 54.
Or Houston 97, Jackson State 40.
Marquette 102, Stony Brook 62
Cincinnati 109, Arkansas Pine-Bluff 54
Kentucky 103, Wright State 62

You get it. But Gonzaga beating Baylor by 38 is a statement. Baylor was #11 pre-season in Kenpom and #8 in the pre-season AP poll. And Gonzaga beat them like they were Siena, Stonehill, or Pacific. In fact they only beat Pacific 102-76 last year.

So Gonzaga is good, probably better than the 3-seed we started them as. Or maybe Baylor isn't a 4-seed this year? That's probably closer to the truth. The Zags beat expectations by 36 points, but more of that might be the Bears being overrated.

Let's assume that half the margin was outlier, so a 17-point win really represents how the teams stand. The most credit we give Gonzaga is about 7 points and they're close to being the best team in the country. Take away the same from Baylor and they're a bubble team.

2024-2025 Pre-season "ranking" live

Ok, these aren't "rankings" but just a projection of the 2025 NCAA tournament seedings, based on last year's Strength and this season's schedule.

Click here to see full updated seedings!

For posterity, the pre-season seedings (and a bit of the bubble) are below:

Dance Chance for pre-season 2024-2024:

                                       Record             
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr  Proj   Chalk  %Odds   Seed  1-seed% 
  1. Connecticut            BE     0-0  25-4   29-0    84.3     1    34.5
  2. Purdue                 B10    0-0  25-5   30-0    80.9     1    31.6
  3. Houston                B12    0-0  25-6   30-1    78.5     1    30.3
  4. Arizona                B12    0-0  23-6   28-1    76.3     1    27.7
  5. Tennessee              SEC    0-0  24-6   28-2    71.2     2    18.7
  6. Auburn                 SEC    0-0  22-7   25-4    70.8     2    20.8
  7. North Carolina         ACC    0-0  23-7   29-1    69.2     2    17.1
  8. Iowa St.               B12    0-0  22-7   26-3    69.1     2    20.0
  9. Duke                   ACC    0-0  23-8   29-2    65.3     3    14.6
 10. Illinois               B10    0-0  23-8   27-4    61.4     3    11.0
 11. Alabama                SEC    0-0  21-10  26-5    60.1     3    12.9
 12. Gonzaga                WCC    0-0  23-6   27-2    59.7     3     5.8
 13. Creighton              BE     0-0  22-9   27-4    58.0     4     9.0
 14. Marquette              BE     0-0  21-10  25-6    57.8     4    10.0
 15. Saint Mary's           WCC    0-0  23-7   26-4    55.9     4     5.4
 16. Baylor                 B12    0-0  20-10  22-8    54.9     4     9.8
 17. BYU                    B12    0-0  21-9   26-4    54.6     5     7.8
 18. Michigan St.           B10    0-0  20-9   27-2    54.2     5     7.5
 19. Kentucky               SEC    0-0  21-10  20-11   51.5     5     6.4
 20. New Mexico             MWC    0-0  22-8   25-5    49.9     5     3.0
 21. Clemson                ACC    0-0  21-9   26-4    48.4     6     5.4
 22. Indiana St.            MVC    0-0  24-7   29-2    47.7     6     1.4
 23. San Diego St.          MWC    0-0  20-9   22-7    45.9     6     3.9
 24. Wisconsin              B10    0-0  19-11  24-6    45.9     6     4.5
 25. St. John's             BE     0-0  20-10  23-7    45.8     7     3.5
 26. Texas                  SEC    0-0  20-10  22-8    44.7     7     3.1
 27. Washington St.         WCC    0-0  22-8   24-6    44.2     7     1.6
 28. Pittsburgh             ACC    0-0  20-10  22-8    43.8     7     3.9
 29. Florida Atlantic       Amer   0-0  21-8   26-3    43.5     8     1.4
 30. Colorado St.           MWC    0-0  21-9   24-6    43.4     8     2.4
 31. Wake Forest            ACC    0-0  20-10  21-9    43.3     8     2.7
 32. Colorado               B12    0-0  18-11  18-11   43.1     8     3.9
 33. Dayton                 A10    0-0  21-8   26-3    43.0     9     1.4
 34. Boise St.              MWC    0-0  20-9   24-5    42.0     9     1.5
 35. Florida                SEC    0-0  19-11  23-7    41.2     9     3.0
 36. Utah                   B12    0-0  20-11  22-9    40.9     9     2.9
 37. Nebraska               B10    0-0  18-11  18-11   40.7    10     2.8
 38. Texas Tech             B12    0-0  19-11  19-11   40.7    10     2.3
 39. Kansas                 B12    0-0  18-13  16-15   40.1    10     4.6
 40. Cincinnati             B12    0-0  19-12  21-10   40.0    10     3.7
 41. Mississippi St.        SEC    0-0  19-11  24-6    40.0    11     3.2
 42. Oklahoma               SEC    0-0  20-9   23-6    39.7    11     2.2
 43. Drake                  MVC    0-0  19-7   23-3    38.8    11     0.4
 44. Villanova              BE     0-0  19-11  19-11   38.7    11p    2.0
 45. Nevada                 MWC    0-0  19-10  24-5    38.0    11p    1.7
 46. Grand Canyon           WAC    0-0  23-7   30-0    37.9    12     0.2
 47. TCU                    B12    0-0  19-11  21-9    37.9    12p    2.4
 48. Utah St.               MWC    0-0  20-10  22-8    35.5    12p    1.1
 49. Northwestern           B10    0-0  18-12  19-11   34.5           1.3
 50. James Madison          SB     0-0  22-6   26-2    33.8    12     0.2
 51. Oregon                 B10    0-0  18-13  20-11   33.3           1.5
 52. Virginia Tech          ACC    0-0  19-11  22-8    33.1           0.9
 53. Ohio St.               B10    0-0  17-14  21-10   33.1           2.5
 54. Texas A&M              SEC    0-0  17-14  17-14   32.9           2.1
 55. Iowa                   B10    0-0  18-13  19-12   32.9           1.1