Week 10 was an infamous barnburner of a week where 8 teams in the AP top 10 lost at least once, and of course the Dance Chance top seeds were hit too; all four lost last week, but 3 of the 4 held the top three spots.
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ]
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/14 01/07
1. Arizona P12 12-4 26-5 27-4 >99.9 0.0 1 1
2. Purdue B10 15-2 27-4 29-2 >99.9 0.0 1 1
3. Houston B12 14-2 27-4 29-2 99.9 0.0 1 1
4. North Carolina ACC 13-3 25-6 27-4 98.3 +4.2 1 2
5. Alabama SEC 11-5 23-8 26-5 97.8 +2.8 2 2
6. Iowa St. B12 13-3 24-7 25-6 97.5 +8.7 2 3
7. BYU B12 13-3 25-6 26-5 96.0 -0.6 2 1
8. Baylor B12 14-2 24-7 27-4 94.9 +8.1 2 4
Arizona lost at Washington State 73-70 on Saturday but still rose to claim the overall top 1-seed in our projection due to the fact that Purdue and Houston also lost last week. The Boilermaker lost worse—88-72 at Nebraska—and Houston lost twice, at Iowa State by 4 and TCU by 1. The top three are essentially tied but looking forward Arizona has the easiest path and Houston the toughest, and that's the (tiny) difference in outlook.
BYU also lost and they fell to a 2-seed. The Cougars fell to Baylor 81-72 and a tepid 63-58 win over Central Florida didn't compensate. Joining them as a 2-seed is the team that beat them and another Big Twelve teammate, Iowa State, one of the teams that beat Houston. BYU hosts the Cyclones on Tuesday the 16th.
Alabama held their spot as the top 2-seed with a couple of solid wins but got lapped by North Carolina. The Tar Heels beat NC State and then demolished Syracuse 103-67 for their 6th win in a row. The last 1-seed still looks very up for grabs though.
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ]
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/14 01/07
9. Auburn SEC 14-2 25-6 26-5 94.6 +5.6 3 3
10. Creighton BE 13-4 23-8 26-5 93.9 +5.8 3 4
11. Tennessee SEC 12-4 23-8 24-7 93.4 -0.8 3 2
12. Connecticut BE 15-2 25-6 27-4 93.4 +1.8 3 2
13. Duke ACC 13-3 24-7 27-4 92.3 +4.3 4 4
14. Wisconsin B10 13-3 23-8 26-5 90.7 +8.4 4 5
15. Colorado St. MWC 13-3 25-6 27-4 89.2 +0.2 4 3
16. Utah St. MWC 16-1 28-5 28-5 84.9 +3.8 4 5
In a week where UConn went to #1 in the AP poll due to attrition at the top, in our projection the Huskies drop from a 2-seed to a 3-seed. Maybe beating Georgetown by 13 wasn't impressive to our power ratings? Probably. Meanwhile Creighton took over the top spot in the Big East as they beat DePaul 84-58 and edged a surging St. John's 66-65; they will battle UConn on Wednesday to defend their top Big East ranking. Auburn held their 3-seed and are now the #2 SEC team following Tennessee's fall to a 3-seed. The Vols dropped a game at Mississippi State 77-72; they take on 2-seed Alabama next Saturday.
The 4-seed line includes two Mountain West teams, with former 3-seed Colorado State still edging former 5-seed Utah State for the conference "title." The Rams lost to Boise State last week while the Aggies—who beat the Rams two Saturdays ago—won their 14th and 15th straight games (their only loss: Bradley in game 2).
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ]
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/14 01/07
17. Illinois B10 12-4 22-9 24-7 84.5 -3.7 5 3
18. Kentucky SEC 12-3 23-8 24-7 81.7 -2.3 5 5
19. Dayton A10 13-2 25-5 28-2 81.6 +4.3 5 6
20. Marquette BE 11-5 21-10 22-9 81.5 -5.6 5 4
21. Clemson ACC 12-4 22-9 24-7 81.3 -0.7 6 5
22. Utah P12 12-5 22-9 25-6 78.1 +6.0 6 7
23. Florida Atlantic Amer 13-4 25-6 27-4 77.1 -2.6 6 6
24. New Mexico MWC 14-3 24-7 24-7 76.8 +1.7 6 7
25. Kansas B12 14-2 21-10 21-10 76.0 -1.9 7 6
26. Michigan St. B10 10-7 20-11 22-9 74.3 +6.8 7 8
27. TCU B12 13-3 21-10 21-10 74.0 +27.2 7 12p
28. Oklahoma B12 13-3 21-10 23-8 73.0 -4.6 7 6
Illinois' loss to Maryland knocked the Illini down two seed to a 5-seed, but other than that almost everyone in the 5-7 seed range moved only slightly. Losses by Marquette, Clemson, Kansas, and Oklahoma (twice) dinged their Dance Chance percentages and knocked them down a seed. Kentucky lost but held their 5-seed because so many other teams lost. Utah moved up a seed despite losing to Stanford (they also beat UCLA 90-44 last week), and Michigan State, too, advanced despite a loss (at Illinois, by 3 points).
TCU went from 46.8% odds last week to 74.0% this week after upsetting Houston days after giving Oklahoma their 2nd loss. The Horned Frogs were a play-in 12-seed last week but now are on par with the Sooners at a 7-seed, with the same 13-3 record and 21-10 expectation in the Big Twelve. There's no rest in the Big Twelve as they face 9-seed Cincinnati and 2-seed Iowa State this week.
6-seed New Mexico lost to UNLV but beat San Diego State 88-70 following that; they face 4-seed Utah State on Tuesday.
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ]
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/14 01/07
29. Princeton Ivy 13-1 24-3 26-1 72.1 +0.5 8 8
30. St. John's BE 12-5 21-10 22-9 70.5 +8.2 8 9
31. San Diego St. MWC 14-3 23-8 23-8 70.4 -5.2 8 7
32. Indiana St. MVC 14-3 26-5 28-3 68.1 -2.1 8 8
33. Cincinnati B12 12-4 20-11 20-11 65.8 -7.2 9 7
34. Boise St. MWC 12-4 22-9 23-8 65.2 +28.8 9
35. Villanova BE 11-5 19-12 19-12 65.2 +2.3 9 9
36. Mississippi St. SEC 12-4 21-10 21-10 64.2 +11.8 9 11
37. Nevada MWC 15-2 24-8 24-8 62.7 -9.2 10 8
38. Wake Forest ACC 12-4 21-10 22-9 60.1 +3.4 10 10
39. Texas Tech B12 14-2 21-10 22-9 60.0 +4.7 10 10
40. Saint Mary's WCC 13-6 23-8 23-8 59.8 +6.8 10 10
Boise State was a bigger mover than TCU, up 28.8% joining the seedings at the 9-line. They had a great week, beating 3-seed Colorado State at home and then upsetting Nevada on the road, knocking the Broncos from an 8-seed to a 10-seed. San Diego State suffered their 3rd loss but hopes to rebound against Nevada and Boise State this week.
Other than that not too much movement here; Cincinnati fell a couple seeds due to two losses: Texas at home by a point, and Baylor on the road by 3. And Mississippi State moved up 2 seeds following a split of home games with 3-seed Tennessee (a 77-72 win) and 2-seed Alabama (an 82-74 loss); they face 5-seed Kentucky on Wednesday.
St. John's was tripped up by Creighton on the road but that was expected; they move up a seed and will be tested again by 5-seed Marquette this coming Saturday. Also in the Big East on Saturday, 9-seed Villanova faces 3-seed UConn. And Texas Tech's 9-game win streak will be severely tested as they travel to face 1-seed Houston and host 2-seed BYU this week.
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ]
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/14 01/07
41. Memphis Amer 15-2 24-7 25-6 59.6 +0.5 11 9
42. Nebraska B10 13-4 21-10 22-9 56.5 +22.6 11
43. Texas A&M SEC 10-6 19-12 22-9 54.7 +3.4 11 11
44. Ohio St. B10 12-4 20-11 21-10 54.1 -0.5 11 10
45. Miami FL ACC 12-4 20-11 23-8 51.6 -12.4 12p 9
46. SMU Amer 11-5 23-8 25-6 48.3 +2.5 12p 12p
47. Colorado P12 12-5 20-11 20-11 47.1 -4.0 12p 11
48. Iowa B10 10-6 18-13 20-11 46.2 +11.1 12p
Top of the bubble: The bubble is starting to have some meaning, maybe? Really, almost any bubble team can mathematically become a 1-seed by the end of the year, so it's not do or die just yet. Two Big Ten teams add their names to the seedings: Nebraska, who beat Purdue solidly (89-72), and Iowa, who beat the Cornhuskers even more solidly (94-76) the very next game. That limited Nebraska's rise to 22.6% and a 9-seed, and Iowa advanced 11.1% and nabbed the final bid. The Hawkeyes get their 2nd crack at 1-seed Purdue this Saturday, this time in Iowa City (they lost the first 87-68).
Memphis won its 9th and 10th straight games and added 0.5% but fell 2 seeds for some reason. It sounds worse than it is, since the Tigers were the bottom 9-seed and are now the top 11-seed. Needing overtime to beat lowly UTSA at home definitely slowed them down a bit. Miami's fall from a 9-seed to a 12-seed is easier to explain, as the up-and-down Hurricanes lost at home to 6-10 Louisville, 80-71. They would have fallen out of the tournament completely had they not recovered to beat Virginia Tech on the road three days later.
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ]
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/14 01/07
49. Florida SEC 11-5 19-12 20-11 42.7 -6.0 12p
50. Gonzaga WCC 11-5 22-8 22-8 42.6 -10.3 11
51. South Carolina SEC 14-2 21-10 20-11 41.5 -4.1 12p
52. Washington St. P12 12-5 20-11 22-9 41.5 +27.8
53. San Francisco WCC 14-4 23-8 25-6 40.8 +2.0
54. James Madison SB 15-2 26-4 27-3 39.8 -2.7 12 12
55. Grand Canyon WAC 16-1 28-4 31-1 39.6 -0.8 12 12
56. Butler BE 11-6 18-13 17-14 39.1 +4.9
57. Virginia Tech ACC 10-6 18-13 18-13 38.5 +10.3
58. Seton Hall BE 12-5 18-13 17-14 37.9 +8.9
59. Drake MVC 14-3 24-7 26-5 37.8 +14.5
60. Mississippi SEC 15-1 21-10 19-12 37.0 +13.5
Below the bubble: As I noted above, none of these teams has to worry, there's plenty of time—they just have to win though. Florida was upset at home by Mississippi 103-85, dropping the Gators out of the seedings and giving Ole Miss some respect (more on that in a bit). The Gators rebounded to beat Arkansas 90-68 but for now they're looking very borderline in the tough SEC. Speaking of which, South Carolina also fell out due to a bad loss (74-47) to Alabama and a nail-biting overtime win at Missouri. At 14-2 the Gamecocks have few good wins under their belts but only losses to Bama and Clemson; their #69 Strength suggests a borderline finish like Florida's.
The real bomb dropped as Gonzaga fell out of the seedings. The same week that they fell out of the top 25 for the first time in nearly a decade the Bulldogs lost to Santa Clara, their 5th loss of the year, and with their Strength flagging at #40, even a projected 11-3 finish the rest of the way might not cut the mustard. The Zags will have to beat Kentucky in February to bolster their résumé, otherwise the WCC doesn't provide much opportunity. San Francisco is another WCC team hoping for a bid, and there might only be one at-large from that conference.
Washington State made great progress in their bid for a bid, jumping 27.8% following wins over USC and 1-seed Arizona. As did Drake from the Missouri Valley (beat Indiana State 89-78) and Mississippi (beat Florida and Vanderbilt). Mississippi has been an interesting case all season, ranked low in Strength despite a great record, with a tough SEC schedule looming. At one point it looked like they could expect only three wins the rest of the way; they already have two. Now it looks like they have four more wins coming (game by game) or, on average, about six more wins vs. 9 losses. And that's probably not good enough as their non-conference schedule was pretty slight. Look at it this way: they've only lost to 2-seed Tennessee so far, but the only seeded team they've beaten is 11-seed Memphis. So far they've avoided a 2023-LSU type of slide but it's still early.