All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
UConn Huskies
Seed: 1
Record: 35-3
Conference: Big East
vs.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Seed: 4
Record: 25-11
Conference: SEC
Date: Saturday, April 6
Time: 8:49pm Eastern
Location: Glendale, AZ
Channel: TBS
Alabama was no long-shot for the Final Four; at their best they were one of the best teams in the country all season. Are they good enough to beat UConn?
UConn Alabama
Power Ratings
Strength: #1 Strength: #10
Median: #1 Median: #8
Markov: #1 Markov: #15
Pomeroy: #1 Pomeroy: #12
Offense: #1 Offense: #3
Defense: #4 Defense: #105
BPI: #2 BPI: #11
LRMC: #1 LRMC: #18
Other Measures:
Tempo (Offense): #294 Tempo (Offense): #3
Consistency: #309 Consistency: #355
2nd half season: #1 2nd half season: #17
Last 4: #1 Last 4: #12
UConn is looking like an unstoppable juggernaut, but let's be real: the teams most likely to stop them are the ones at the END of the line, not those at the beginning or middle. And near the end of the line they face Alabama. What chance do the Tide have?
Alabama wasn't supposed to make it here. Not because they're a 4-seed; in fact, they are a very strong 4-seed and at times during the season they ranked in the top 5 in Strength. A later-season swoon caused by injuries watered down their power rating metrics, but really they aren't far off from what UConn was last year—an underseeded 4-seed.
No, the reasons Alabama was not supposed to be eligible for the Final Four are their inconsistency and their terrible defense. Both should disqualify them, yet here they are. The inconsistency problem was solved by Alabama suddenly becoming the most consistent team possible over the last four games.
The defensive problem? They didn't solve it. They're playing basically the same bad defense they've played all season. And the same strong offense they've played all season. Nothing changed except they haven't had bad games. But neither have they had a great performance—the type they'll need to beat UConn.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =(7)Texas+10, =(1)North Carolina+11, @(5)Gonzaga+13, (3)Creighton+14, (2)Marquette+28, @(2)Marquette+7, =(2)Marquette+16, =(16)Stetson+39, =(9)Northwestern+17, (5)San Diego St.+30, (3)Illinois+25
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (8): =(1)North Carolina+11, @(5)Gonzaga+13, (3)Creighton+14, (2)Marquette+28, @(2)Marquette+7, =(2)Marquette+16, (5)San Diego St.+30, (3)Illinois+25
- Wins vs. Final Four (1): None
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @(4)Kansas-4, @(3)Creighton-19
- Other losses (1): @Seton Hall-15
Overview: Just like we noted with Marquette, the Big East teams are going to show very few tournament wins because all the Big East teams got left out. It's basically the Big East Big Three and whoever you played in non-conference, so a 1-seed like UConn has just seven big wins. One of those was 1-seed North Carolina though, and 5-seed Gonzaga is always impressive. They lost to 4-seed Kansas, and even to Seton Hall (one of the bracket-busted Big East teams). Note that of their 7 original tourney wins, six now count as wins over the Sweet Sixteen.
UConn is looking to repeat as champs and everyone is falling over themselves comparing them to 2007 Florida, but as I've said, the danger is them resembling 2017 Villanova. The 2017 Wildcats, trying to repeat their 2016 championship, entered the 2nd round 32-3 and lost to 8-seed Wisconsin. Will UConn fall in the 2nd round to a middle-seeded Big Ten team as well? The answer was no, and neither did they fall in the Sweet Sixteen, which no other defending national champ has made it past—since 2007 Florida.
The Huskies are led by Tristen Newton's 15.2 ppg and four others average in double figures. Donovan Clingan scored 20 points in UConn's 91-52 first round win over Stetson. The Huskies didn't slow down at all against Northwestern, winning easily 73-58 behind Newton's 20 points. The Huskies simply blew away San Diego State, 82-52, as Cam Spencer led with 18. UConn took control over Illinois with a 30 point run and won 77-52 as Donovan Clingan scored 36.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (12): (14)Morehead St.+32, =(11)Oregon+8, (6)South Carolina+27, @(8)Mississippi St.+8, (4)Auburn+4, (8)Mississippi St.+32, (9)Texas A&M+25, (7)Florida+OT, =(13)Charleston+13, =(12)Grand Canyon+11, =(1)North Carolina+2, =(6)Clemson+7
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(1)North Carolina+2, =(6)Clemson+7
- Wins vs. Final Four (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (10): (6)Clemson-8, =(1)Purdue-6, @(3)Creighton-3, @(2)Arizona-13, @(2)Tennessee-20, @(4)Auburn-18, @(3)Kentucky-22, (2)Tennessee-7, @(7)Florida-18, =(7)Florida-14
- Other losses (1): =Ohio St.-11
Overview: For all the games they won the Tide didn't beat a team higher than a 4-seed. They lost to 1-seed Purdue, 2-seed Arizona, 2-seed Tennessee (twice), 3-seed Kentucky, 3-seed Creighton, 6-seed Clemson, and 7-seed Florida (twice). No wonder their SOS is #4 in the nation. If they'd won just a few of those they would have a more proper seed for their level of play. Which begs the question, can Alabama win the big game? For right now though, they have to win the small game! It's telling that none of the teams they beat reached the Sweet Sixteen. Well, Alabama won two "small" games, then they won the really big one over North Carolina.
The peaks and valleys of the season can be seen above, and the decline at the end is precipitous. #5 scorer Latrell Wrightsell (9.0ppg) was out from game 26 (overtime Florida win at home), through the Tennessee home loss (game 29). #4 scorer Rylan Griffen (11.0) missed the Arkansas home win. Both played 20 minutes in the 102-88 loss to Florida in the final game.
Mark Sears leads the team with a 21.1 per game average. He was recently named a Wooden Award finalist. Sears had 30 points in the win over Charleston in the first round and 26 against Grand Canyon in the Round of 32. Alabama finally got the BIG WIN they've been looking for all season, beating 1-seed North Carolina 89-87 with Grant Nelson scoing 24 points including 10 of 13 free throws. Sears' 23 (7 of 14 on threes) paced the Tide over Clemson.
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Game Analysis: UConn just beat a team that had a great offense and bad defense, and it wasn't even close. How can Alabama make it a game?
The key is variability of play. Illinois is #22 in Consistency, so their odds of playing a good enough outlier to challenge UConn was small. Alabama is on the other end of the spectrum, at #355. They're all over the place. UConn isn't very consistent either. If UConn plays a subpar game and the Tide play an above-average game, then we have a close one.
The problem with that theory is that both UConn and Alabama have been extremely consistent during the tournament. UConn has been at a stellar level, while Alabama has become ultra-consistent, the opposite of what they were during the season. The Tide have played only about 1 point better than their average but they've been very consistent. Lack of consistency was one reason why I didn't think Alabama could make it this far.
The other reason was Defense. Every year someone tweets that "no team has made the Final Four with a KenPom defense worse than..." and gives a number, usually a ranking from the season's end. Anyway, last year's Miami made it with the #99 defense (end of season) and now Alabama has made it with the #105 defense. The thing is, teams like Miami had their defense improve a lot (from #133 to #99) while Alabama's defense is barely better (from #112 to #106).
The theory behind Illinois winning was that the Illini could make it all about offense—they way Alabama did against North Carolina. Illinois had success for a while and it was 23-23 before UConn scored the next 30 points. Alabama is like Illinois with a worse defense, and ostensibly erratic performance but they've turned into an Illinois clone as far as Consistency goes too.
Matchup-wise, when Alabama has the ball it's a standoff, as the Tide shoot great and UConn defends great. Alabama has a slight edge rebounding and don't turn the ball over a lot. But they're vulnerable to blocked shots, a UConn specialty.
When UConn has the ball it's a mismatch, with UConn having a huge edge in 2-pt shooting vs. Alabama's defense, a giant edge in rebounding, and Alabama's fouling means the Huskies will get to the line a lot.
The one thing Alabama has in their favor is that UConn is no longer playing at home (or nearly so, in Boston). The Tide's hope seems to fall on 3-point shooting, that they can make so many 3s that it overwhelms even UConn's advantage on the other end of the floor.
Vegas Line:
UConn by 11 1/2
Power rating: spread
UConn by 5.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
UConn: 61.4%
Alabama: 38.6%
Look at that line. Compared to the full season—where our power rating has UConn by 5.3—Vegas is really weighting recent performance where the Huskies look indestructible. For the full season UConn wins just 61% of contests, as both teams were so volatile that it depended on who had a great (or awful) performance. But now? Of the last 4 games (the tournament), UConn wins 100%. Last 8? UConn wins 100%. Last 11 games? UConn wins 99.2%. In other words, of 121 cross-comparisons, UConn wins 120 of them. And that spread is 21.8 points.
Bottom line: Alabama has a real chance—if they find their old erratic play and manage an upside outlier performance. But it looks like they're not doing that anymore—if they were still erratic they wouldn't have made it this far. It also looks like UConn is stuck in the stratosphere. I guess I'm a convert now.
Final prediction: UConn 90, Alabama 74
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
