SportsRatings: College Basketball

2024 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (4) Duke vs. (11) NC State

All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule

Duke Blue Devils
Seed: 4
Record: 27-8
Conference: ACC

vs.

NC State Wolfpacl
Seed: 11
Record: 25-14
Conference: ACC

Date: Sunday, March 31
Time: 5:05pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Dallas, TX  
Channel: CBS

 

Well, let's hear it for the ACC. Just like in 2022, after a shitty regular season they have three teams advancing to the Elite Eight, and they'll have at least one team in the Final Four.

     Duke                               NC State

Power Ratings

Strength:          #9              Strength:          #52
   Median:   #6                        Median:   #69
   Markov:   #8                        Markov:   #26
Pomeroy:           #5              Pomeroy:           #49
   Offense:  #7                        Offense:  #43
   Defense:  #13                       Defense:  #57
BPI:               #7              BPI:               #44
LRMC:              #12             LRMC:              #50

Other Measures:

Tempo (Offense):   #175            Tempo (Offense):   #116
Consistency:       #203            Consistency:       #57
2nd half season:   #7              2nd half season:   #43
Last 6:            #5              Last 6:            #13

It's sort of amazing how little NC State has improved in the power rating metrics after making the Elite Eight. They're gone up from #58 to #52 in Strength, from #53 to #49 in Pomeroy, and #48 to #44 in BPI. LRMC doesn't update so they are still #57. The only metric here that had them looking good at all is my Markov Chain rating, where they were #35 on Selection Sunday and are now nearing the top 25. Normally an overachieving team like this moves up a lot—especially in Pomeroy, where recent play is weighted pretty heavy. Their Offense has actually dipped from #42 to #43, while their Defense went from #75 to #57. So we can gather from this that the Wolf Pack's latest surge—starting in the 2nd game of the ACC tournament—is from improved defensive play.

And they'll need it to deal with Duke's #7 offense. Meanwhile if we assume their offense hasn't improved, then we really have the #43 offense vs. the #13 defense, not a good sign for the Wolfpack.

 

Season overview: Duke

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(9)Michigan St.+9, =(3)Baylor+8, (6)Clemson+1, (10)Virginia+25, @(11)N.C. State+15, =(13)Vermont+17, =(12)James Madison+38, =(1)Houston+3
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): (6)Clemson+1, @(11)N.C. State+15, =(1)Houston+3
• Losses to tournament teams (4): (2)Arizona-5, @(1)North Carolina-9, (1)North Carolina-5, =(11)N.C. State-5
• Other losses (4): @Arkansas-5, @Georgia Tech-4, Pittsburgh-4, @Wake Forest-4

Overview: Like any Duke season expectations start high, and the Blue Devils play good teams and expectations are reset. Losing to Arizona at home was a wakeup call, but beating Michigan State helped assuage worries. Losing to Arkansas wasn't considered such an awful thing at the time, but losing to Georgia Tech for a 5-3 start sounded alarms. The Blue Devils won their next 8 games (including a win over 3-seed Baylor) going 19-5 the rest of the way. They lost twice to 1-seed North Carolina however, which showed there limitations, which were again exposed by the loss to NC State in the ACC tournament.

Duke has five players in double figures led by 7-0 Center Kyle Filipowski at 17.1; he adds 8.2 rebounds per game. Surprisingly against a short Vermont team in 37 minutes he managed just 3 points on 0-1 shooting; Mark Mitchell and Jared McCain picked up the slack with 15 each. Duke played incredibly in the 93-55 blowout of James Madison, with Jared McCain pouring in 30 points on 8 of 11 threes. Filipowski scored 16 against Houston in the slow-paced, 54-51 win.

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Season overview: NC State

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (10)Virginia+16, @(6)Clemson+1, =(4)Duke+5, =(10)Virginia+OT, =(1)North Carolina+8, =(6)Texas Tech+13, =(14)Oakland+OT, =(2)Marquette+9
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): @(6)Clemson+1, =(4)Duke+5, =(1)North Carolina+8, =(2)Marquette+9
• Losses to tournament teams (6): =(6)BYU-9, =(2)Tennessee-9, (1)North Carolina-13, @(10)Virginia-OT, @(1)North Carolina-9, (4)Duke-15
• Other losses (8): @Mississippi-20, Virginia Tech-6, @Syracuse-12, Pittsburgh-3, @Wake Forest-4, Syracuse-4, @Florida St.-7, @Pittsburgh-8

Overview: NC State was a good team all year—good, not great, and not really threatening to most teams. They played a really easy non-conference schedule and lost to all the decent teams they faced (BYU, Ole Miss, Tennessee). They picked up early ACC wins over B.C. and Virginia, though, so in conference play they looked like a potential thorn. For the most part they continued to lose to good teams, culminating in a 4-game skid at the end that destroyed any hope they had of an at-large bid. So instead, they suddenly became a great team and beat Louisville, Syracuse, 4-seed Duke, 10-seed Virginia, and 1-seed North Carolina in a five day span. It's not quite like UConn of 2009 (who won 5 straight to win the Big East, beating a 6-seed, 1-seed, 3-seed, and 4-seed along the way) but it's pretty close. So while we don't expect a national title out of the Wolfpack, history suggests there could be more good things to come. NC State a win over each of the other Sweet Sixteen ACC teams.

DJ Horne leads four starters in double figures for the 'Pack, but against Texas Tech it was reserve Ben Middlebrooks leading with 21 points; he made 6 of 8 shots and 9 of 10 free throws. In the 79-73 overtime thriller vs. Oakland it was big man DJ Burns leading the way with 24 on 9 of 12 shooting. Horne finally led vs. Marquette with 19.

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Game Analysis: What makes a team do what NC State is doing? They've played 39 games, and their five best performances are in their last seven games. That defies the odds, to say the least. There wasn't any warning that this was going to happen, at all. For the NCAA tournament, there was at least the warning provided by their ACC tournament performance, where they won five games in five days, but that five game run was completely unexpected. Basically they came out of nowhere.

By my numbers NC State is playing about 2 points better on offense and around 8.5 points better on defense than they were before their ACC tournament run. Duke would have been favored to win about 80.5 to 70 at that time, and the difference in play by NC State almost completely closes that gap. And of course, one of those games was a 74-69 win over Duke!

Let's look at the matchup and compare it to that last game, which we can assume is the "new" NC State. All the stats we're comparing are full-season stats of course, but let's keep in mind the big improvement on defense.

Duke shoots the ball very well and NC State's defensive stats are pretty poor, allowing nearly 50% on 2s and over 33% on threes. Rebounding edge goes to Duke, too, with only a vulnerability to blocked shots keeping their offense grounded.

NC State doesn't shoot well nor do they rebound well, so Duke has an edge here too. The Wolfpack don't turn the ball over or get their shots blocked, but they don't get to the line a lot.

Based on the full-season stats, it's very easy to see how this team lost 14 games, as they don't do a lot well on either side of the court. But in the last meeting between these teams, they made just a couple extra 3s and that was the difference on offense. Normally they might make 5 of 16, instead they made 7 of 16. They didn't rebound any differently on offense or defense, and Duke shot around expectation on 2-pointers (51%) but only made 5 of 20 threes. Duke didn't get to the foul line as often as expected, but NC State's edge there was mitigated by the Wolfpack missing 9 of 20. Basically the difference was in 3-point shooting: Duke made 2 fewer than expected while NC State made 2 more than expected, and that 12 point swing took the game from Duke by 8 to NC State by 4.

So that doesn't help us much. Since NC State's improvement has been mostly on defense, is it just the opponent not making their threes? Syracuse shot 31.6%, Duke 25%, Virginia 32.1%, UNC 27%, Texas Tech 23%, Oakland 34%, Marquette 13%. Only twice did a team top 32% on threes and both of those games went into overtime before NC State won. It really looks like better three-point defense has been the key to their success, even though three-point defense is a notoriously flakey stat and usually just depends on the luck of the shooting team.

But it does look like Duke would have won the last game with better three-point shooting, and that's what they'll need to do to win. Has NC State really discovered the key to guarding the 3-point shot?

Vegas Line:

Duke by   6 1/2

Power rating: spread

Duke by   9.2

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Duke:      75.1%
NC State:  24.9%

Duke is a much slimmer favored with Vegas than with the Strength power rating, which uses full-season stats. Using just the teams' last seven games (NC State's "surge"), our line decreases to 6.7 points, very close to Vegas' numbers.

From what I can tell, this is the first time EVER that a 4-seed has played an 11-seed. 11-seeds have only made it this far 9 times, and they've played a 1-seed 8 times and a 9-seed once. They're 4-4 vs. the 1-seeds and 1-0 vs. the 9-seeds, so in all an 11-seed at the Elite Eight does pretty damn well at 55.6%.

Bottom line: NC State is playing a lot better lately, a lot. But so is Duke, and that little edge is all they need to win a close one. NC State has won two overtime games but will their luck finally run out?

Final prediction: Duke 81, NC State 79 OT

More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.

 

2024 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Purdue vs. (2) Tennessee

All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule

Purdue Boilermakers
Seed: 1
Record: 32-4
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

Tennessee Volunteers
Seed: 2
Record: 27-8
Conference: SEC

Date: Sunday, March 31
Time: 2:20pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Detroit, MI  
Channel: CBS

 

The only 1-seed vs. 2-seed game on the docket.

     Purdue                             Tennessee

Power Ratings

Strength:          #3              Strength:          #7
   Median:   #4                       Median:   #7
   Markov:   #2                       Markov:   #5
Pomeroy:           #3              Pomeroy:           #6 
   Offense:  #3                       Offense:  #28
   Defense:  #17                      Defense:  #3
BPI:               #3              BPI:               #6
LRMC:              #4              LRMC:              #8

Other Measures:

Tempo (Offense):   #229            Tempo (Offense):   #24
Consistency:       #181            Consistency:       #256
2nd half season:   #2              2nd half season:   #5
Last 6:            #3              Last 6:            #21

Purdue is a solid 1-seed (top 4 everywhere) and Tennessee is a solid 2-seed (ranked 5-8 everywhere). Of most interest? Purdue's #3 offense vs. Tennessee's #3 defense. When the Vols have the ball their offense is at a bit of a disadvantage, but it's not much, and when we look at the personnel matchups things may be better (or worse) for them.

Once again Purdue will be facing a team that speeds things up, and the Vols are a bit inconsistent which helps stir things up. Tennessee's recent performance looks bad but that was due to the period just before the tournament; over the last 3 games (the tournament) they're #7, so about where they should be.

 

Season overview: Purdue

• Wins vs. tournament teams (16): (13)Samford+53, (14)Morehead St.+30, =(5)Gonzaga+10, =(2)Tennessee+4, =(2)Marquette+3, =(4)Alabama+6, (2)Arizona+8, (3)Illinois+5, (9)Northwestern+OT, @(5)Wisconsin+6, (9)Michigan St.+6, @(3)Illinois+6, (5)Wisconsin+8, =(9)Michigan St.+5, =(16)Grambling St.+28, =(8)Utah St.+39, =(5)Gonzaga+12
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (8): =(5)Gonzaga+10, =(2)Tennessee+4, =(2)Marquette+3, =(4)Alabama+6, (2)Arizona+8, (3)Illinois+5, @(3)Illinois+6, =(5)Gonzaga+12
• Losses to tournament teams (3): @(9)Northwestern-OT, @(8)Nebraska-16, =(5)Wisconsin-OT
• Other losses (1): @Ohio St.-4

Overview: Purdue has one hell of a résumé, with three 2-seeds (Tennessee, Marquette, and Arizona) among their non-conference wins, the first two on neutral courts. They beat 4-seed Alabama and 5-seed Gonzaga (both underseeded for how good they are), again, on neutral courts. And their best non-conference wins might have been beating 13-seed Samford 98-45 and 14-seed Morehead State 87-57 in their first two games. Purdue has 7 wins over the Sweet Sixteen from six different conferences, each one except the ACC and Mountain West.

The Big Ten is where Purdue suffered all four losses, and to some fairly pedestrian teams: 5-seed Wisconsin, 8-seed Nebraska, 9-seed Northwestern, and NIT pick Ohio State. Two of the four losses were in overtime. 

Purdue revolves around Zack Edey, a two time Player of the Year. He puts up 24.4 points and grabs 11.7 rebounds per game. Four other Boilermakers average double figures but he's the man; without him, they'd probably be an 8-seed playing a 1-seed instead of the other way around. Edey had 30 points and 21 rebounds against Grambling State. Purdue might have played their best game (2nd best, by our chart numbers) of the season in beating Utah State 106-67, with Edey scoring 23. He had 27 in the win over Gonzaga.

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Season overview: Tennessee

• Wins vs. tournament teams (13): @(5)Wisconsin+10, (3)Illinois+7, =(11)N.C. State+9, (7)Florida+19, (4)Alabama+20, @(3)Kentucky+11, (9)Texas A&M+35, (4)Auburn+8, @(4)Alabama+7, @(6)South Carolina+7, =(15)Saint Peter's+34, =(7)Texas+4, =(3)Creighton+7
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (5): (3)Illinois+7, =(11)N.C. State+9, (4)Alabama+20, @(4)Alabama+7, =(3)Creighton+7
• Losses to tournament teams (8): =(1)Purdue-4, =(4)Kansas-9, @(1)North Carolina-8, @(8)Mississippi St.-5, (6)South Carolina-4, @(9)Texas A&M-16, (3)Kentucky-4, =(8)Mississippi St.-17
• Other losses (0): None

Overview: Well, this chart almost gave me pause. I didn't like how it ended for Tennessee, a slow drop-off to the two losses, finishing in their worst performance of the season. Talk about ending on a bad note. They recovered from it with the opening wins, but it sure shows wildly erratic play game to game, and losing in the first round of your conference championship is a red flag for Final Four advancement. But let's look at the good: 10 wins over tournament teams, and quite significantly, zero losses to non-tournament teams. Along the way Tennessee beat 3-seed Illinois, 3-seed Kentucky, and 4-seed Alabama and 4-seed Auburn twice each. They also lost to both 1-seeds they faced, Purdue and North Carolina.

Tennessee is better on defense (where they are elite) than on offense, but they're no slouch. Naismith short-lister Dalton Knecht averages 21.1 points per game and shoots almost 40% behind the 3-pt line. In the St. Peter's win Knecht had 23 on 4 of 8 3-point shooting. He led with 18 against Texas, and had 24 against Creighton.

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Game Analysis: When a 1-seed meets a 2-seed in a regional final it's pretty much a 50/50 game and history bears this out. But with Zack Edey in the game, it's best to look at how teams match up with a team that has a dominant center, a rarity in today's game.

Just like last time with Purdue vs. Gonzaga, these teams met in November and Purdue won the game, 71-67. It was close, will it be different this time? Again I'll look at what "should" happen on paper and compare it with what did happen last time they met.

The key matchups happen when Purdue has the ball (#3 offense) vs. Tennessee's #3 defense. Purdue shoots very well, but it's not 2-pointers where they are best, in fact Tennessee should defend Edey very well underneath. The Boilermakers are #1 in 3-pointers, shooting 41%. They might have to make their threes to win if Edey gets bottled up. But they rebound very well on offense (#6) and that's a big advantage over Tennessee here. To combat that, Tennessee should get a number of steals, but on the other hand this will lead to quite a few fouls. Tennessee normally gets a lot of blocks but probably won't vs. Purdue.

When Tennessee has the ball don't look for many turnovers at all, as Purdue doesn't go for steals but also rarely fouls at all. Purdue defends shots well and Tennessee doesn't shoot well, so they need to rebound but Purdue is a great rebounding team so that puts a wrench in Tennessee's offense on a very basic level. If they miss a lot of shots, have to really fight for rebounds, and don't get fouled, that limits their opportunities to score. Guess they better hope Dalton Knecht has one of his "hot" games?

The last time they met (in Hawaii in November), Tennessee indeed shot poorly (41% on 2s, 27% on threes), and struggled for 10 offensive rebounds, both of which match the prediction. But they did get to the foul line a lot, taking 30 attempts against 57 FG attempts, more than a 50% FTA/FGA which is much higher than their offensive average and a LOT higher than Purdue's defense averages. So somehow Tennessee got Purdue to foul a lot, and it kept them in the game as they made 21 free throws.

Purdue didn't shoot the ball well that game either, which is the other reason Tennessee kept it close. They made 4 of 15 threes and 15 of 39 2s, both well below their average, so either they had an off-day or the Vols were able to guard them particularly well. We can probably assume this was the case for 2-pointers but 3-pointers are mostly due to the shooter really. Purdue did have the expected rebounding edge on offense, with 17 offensive rebounds, and overall they won the boards 44 to 31. But they got most of their points the same way Tennessee did: at the foul line. They only shot 60% from the free throw line but got there 48 times, an 89% FTA/FGA ratio which is off the charts. So Tennessee did foul a lot—both teams did—and Purdue took advantage (despite missing a whopping 19 attempts).

Despite Purdue's shooting woes in the first game Edey was still 7 of 10 from the floor, so they weren't exactly stopping him or even slowing him down. He finished with 23 points, but Fletcher Loyer led with 27 points, making 10 of 11 free throws.

So the only thing that played out different than the "on paper" exercise was that Purdue fouled Tennessee a lot, and Purdue missed their 2-point shots (when someone other than Edey shot). If we assume this happens again because it's just the dynamic of these eams, that helps Tennessee. But we can also assume that Purdue will shoot at least a bit better on 3s, and shoot better on free throws this time around, closer to their 72% average. This is bad news for Tennessee, and it might not be as close as the first game unless they keep the fouling down. Since the last game was on a neutral court, it probably won't be much different, and Tennessee didn't show an ability to slow down Edey much.

Again Dalton Knecht is the X factor; he hadn't been with the Vols for many games at the time of the first meeting and scored 16 points, so if he can have a 30 point game, the Vols can win.

Vegas Line:

Purdue by   3 1/2

Power rating: spread

Purdue by   3.2

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Purdue:     55.6% 
Tennessee:  44.4% 

Purdue pretty much had a home court advantage against Gonzaga, but Tennessee isn't quite as far away as Seattle. Interestingly, at the Elite Eight level, 2-seeds have won more meetings than 1-seeds, 51.1% to 48.9%. 1-seeds have won 70% of the meetings in the Final Four, but within the same regional bracket the 2-seeds are ahead 24 wins to 23 wins, so Purdue can tie things for the 1-seeds, or Tennessee can extend the lead for the 2-seeds.

Bottom line: Based on the last meeting between the two teams, Purdue wins, and probably by a wider margin as they shoot better from the foul line.

Final prediction: Purdue 80, Tennessee 69

More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.

 

2024 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (4) Alabama vs. (6) Clemson

All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule

Alabama Crimson Tide
Seed: 4
Record: 24-11
Conference: SEC

vs.

Clemson Tigers
Seed: 6
Record: 24-11
Conference: ACC

Date: Saturday, March 30
Time: 8:49pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Los Angeles, CA  
Channel: TBS

 

Neither of these teams should be here for various reasons, but here they are.

     Alabama                            Clemson

Power Ratings

Strength:          #10             Strength:          #20
   Median:   #11                      Median:   #18
   Markov:   #23                      Markov:   #16
Pomeroy:           #14             Pomeroy:           #19
   Offense:  #4                       Offense:  #24
   Defense:  #104                     Defense:  #33
BPI:               #12             BPI:               #20
LRMC:              #18             LRMC:              #35

Other Measures:

Tempo (Offense):   #3              Tempo (Offense):   #173
Consistency:       #356            Consistency:       #251
2nd half season:   #17             2nd half season:   #19
Last 6:            #65             Last 6:            #17

For the top-line numbers (Strength, Pomeroy, BPI, LRMC) both these teams don't look out of place in the Elite Eight. They're within striking distance, with Alabama top ten or at least close, Clemson top 20 or at least close. But for the Final Four? Clemson already looks like a long shot, and Alabama has a couple of very prohibitive numbers: Their #104 defense, and their #356 Consistency ranking.

A few teams have made the Final Four with a defense ranking worse than #100 on Selection Sunday, but by the end of the season, nope (Miami was #99 last year). So you can have a >100 defense and make the Final Four as long as you are playing better defense during your run to the Final Four. Alabama was #112 on Selection Sunday so they are improving...very slowly. And they actually slipped back from #101 to #104 in their last game. The Tide still aren't playing top 100 defense in a meaningful way. And their Strength, Pomeroy, and BPI rankings are all actually down a spot since the tournament began.

The inconsistency problem is something that makes more sense from a Selection Sunday vantage point. Can a very inconsistent team win four tournament games in a row, avoiding a downside game? Odds say no. But now that they've won three of those games, much of that sentiment is moot. They only have to win one more game. So in a sense, Alabama's inconsistency applies a lot more to the question "can they win it all while being so inconsistent?" This applies to Clemson, too, to a lesser extent.

Alabama's "last 6 games" ranking is still affected by their late-season injuries; over the last 3 games they've been around #10, which is average for them.

 

Season overview: Alabama

• Wins vs. tournament teams (11): (14)Morehead St.+32, =(11)Oregon+8, (6)South Carolina+27, @(8)Mississippi St.+8, (4)Auburn+4, (8)Mississippi St.+32, (9)Texas A&M+25, (7)Florida+OT, =(13)Charleston+13, =(12)Grand Canyon+11, =(1)North Carolina+2
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(1)North Carolina+2
• Losses to tournament teams (10): (6)Clemson-8, =(1)Purdue-6, @(3)Creighton-3, @(2)Arizona-13, @(2)Tennessee-20, @(4)Auburn-18, @(3)Kentucky-22, (2)Tennessee-7, @(7)Florida-18, =(7)Florida-14
• Other losses (1): =Ohio St.-11

Overview: For all the games they won the Tide didn't beat a team higher than a 4-seed. They lost to 1-seed Purdue, 2-seed Arizona, 2-seed Tennessee (twice), 3-seed Kentucky, 3-seed Creighton, 6-seed Clemson, and 7-seed Florida (twice). No wonder their SOS is #4 in the nation. If they'd won just a few of those they would have a more proper seed for their level of play. Which begs the question, can Alabama win the big game? For right now though, they have to win the small game! It's telling that none of the teams they beat reached the Sweet Sixteen. Well, Alabama won two "small" games, then they won the really big one over North Carolina.

The peaks and valleys of the season can be seen above, and the decline at the end is precipitous. #5 scorer Latrell Wrightsell (9.0ppg) was out from game 26 (overtime Florida win at home), through the Tennessee home loss (game 29). #4 scorer Rylan Griffen (11.0) missed the Arkansas home win. Both played 20 minutes in the 102-88 loss to Florida in the final game.

Mark Sears leads the team with a 21.1 per game average. He was recently named a Wooden Award finalist. Sears had 30 points in the win over Charleston in the first round and 26 against Grand Canyon in the Round of 32. Alabama finally got the BIG WIN they've been looking for all season, beating 1-seed North Carolina 89-87 with Grant Nelson scoing 24 points including 10 of 13 free throws.

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Season overview: Clemson

• Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(12)UAB+1, (10)Boise St.+17, @(4)Alabama+8, (6)South Carolina+5, =(9)TCU+8, @(1)North Carolina+4, =(11)New Mexico+21, =(3)Baylor+8, =(2)Arizona+5
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): @(4)Alabama+8, @(1)North Carolina+4, =(2)Arizona+5
• Losses to tournament teams (4): (1)North Carolina-10, @(4)Duke-1, (10)Virginia-1, (11)N.C. State-1
• Other losses (7): @Memphis-2, @Miami FL-13, @Virginia Tech-15, Georgia Tech-OT, @Notre Dame-7, @Wake Forest-5, =Boston College-21

Overview: Clemson started 9-0 with wins over 12-seed UAB, 10-seed Boise State, 4-seed Alabama, almost-seeded Pitt, 6-seed South Carolina, and 9-seed TCU. In nine games! But they lost 7 of their next 12 games and their only other tourney-team win was when they beat 1-seed North Carolina 80-76 in Chapel Hill. In fact, that was their only win over a top 70 Pomeroy team other than Pitt in the calendar year 2024. They basically beat up on the bad ACC teams and lost to the good ones. Good thing they had that pre-conference schedule!

The Tigers are led on offense by center PJ Hall who scores 18.8 points per game and is 2nd on the team with 6.7 rebounds. It was Chase Hunter who spearheaded the win over New Mexico with his 21 points; he did the same with 20 in the upset win over Baylor. Hunter made it 3 for 3 as leading scorer by putting up 18 against Arizona on 8 of 10 shooting from 2-point range.

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Game Analysis: Neither of these teams should make the Final Four. Alabama is far too inconsistent to win four tough games in a row, and their defense isn't good enough. And Clemson is just not on the Final Four radar, never showing much potential to be more than a Sweet Sixteen level team at best. If Arizona hits even 25% instead of 18% on threes, we aren't talking about the Tigers.

Yet one of these teams is going to make the Final Four. The matchup is pretty even overall, by way of each offense having a big advantage over the other team's defensive play.

First there's Alabama with the ball: #4 in the nation, vs. Clemson's #33 defensive play. Alabama shoots the ball far better than the Tigers defend, and Clemson doesn't force turnovers. Alabama rebounds better here, too. The one Clemson edge? Blocked shots, where Alabama is very vulnerable.

When #24 offense Clemson has the ball they are up against Alabama's #104 defense, so as you would expect there is a lot of opportunity here. It's mostly on 2-point shots where Clemson is much better than 3s relatively, and 2-pointers is where Alabama is bad on defense. Alabama doesn't force turnovers much, or rebound well, and they foul a lot. 

It's worth noting that every tournament game Clemson has played is better than every tournament game Alabama has played (Google Charts is having some issues so you might not be able to see them). Alabama is playing to their average, while Clemson is exceeding theirs by a lot. Whether this trend continues with these two erratic teams, we can't say.

Clemson won the previous meeting this season between the teams, 85-77 in November. Clemson had 7 blocked shots, and Alabama shot very poorly from 2-point range which was unexpected. The Tide rebounded well, though. The key was Clemson's 51% 3-point shooting, however, something they can't count on replicating.

Vegas Line:

Alabama by   3 1/2

Power rating: spread

Alabama by   4.1

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Clemson:   41.8% 
Alabama:   58.2% 

This is a very rare matchup, 4-seed vs. 6-seed. It's only happened three times in the 64+ team era, and the 4-seed won twice. 

Bottom line: Almost every year there's a team that "shouldn't be there" in the Final Four, a team that was unremarkable throughout the entire season but somehow made it, a team that was under everyone's radar. They weren't high in the metrics and underperformed for a lower seed, they didn't "catch fire" late and make people take notice, they just played ball, got in the tournament, and won 4 games. Alabama doesn't fit that mold, as they've shown potential and a very high Strength rating at times. Clemson never looked anything other than average and mundane, which is why I think they make the perfect unexpected Final Four team.

Final prediction: Clemson 95, Alabama 85

More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.

 

2024 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) UConn vs. (3) Illinois

All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule

UConn Huskies
Seed: 1
Record: 34-3
Conference: Big East

vs.

Illinois Fighting Illini
Seed: 3
Record: 29-8
Conference: Big Ten

Date: Saturday, March 30
Time: 6:09pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Boston, MA  
Channel: TBS

 

Ok, so UConn is not 2017 Villanova. Or any of the intervening defending national champs, none of whom made the Elite Eight. But will they be 2007 Florida?

     UConn                              Illinois

Power Ratings

Strength:          #1              Strength:          #11
   Median:   #1                       Median:   #13
   Markov:   #1                       Markov:   #9
Pomeroy:           #1              Pomeroy:           #10
   Offense:  #1                       Offense:  #2
   Defense:  #6                       Defense:  #84
BPI:               #2              BPI:               #11
LRMC:              #1              LRMC:              #9

Other Measures:

Tempo (Offense):   #296            Tempo (Offense):   #169
Consistency:       #309            Consistency:       #11
2nd half season:   #1              2nd half season:   #13
Last 6:            #1              Last 6:            #9

UConn is resembling a runaway freight train, the only thing that can stop them is derailing. They've now reached #1 in our Strength power rating, joining their #1 rating in Pomeroy and LRMC. Only the BPI is still a holdout (sticking with Houston, by quite a margin too). They've even taken over #1 on offense from Illinois, who fell to #2 on Pomeroy despite beating the #1 defensive team, Iowa State, to reach the Elite Eight.

The biggest difference between the teams is Consistency, which Illinois has and UConn doesn't. It's probably allowed Illinois to get this far, but inconsistency sure hasn't hurt UConn yet as it's basically all been on the upside. There's also defensive play where UConn is a solid top ten and Illinois is just #84. According to KenPom lore, you can't have a defense worse than #25 to reach the Final Four. Ok, that was formed using post-tournament data. And it hasn't been true for like, forever. VCU made the Final Four in 2011 and finished with the #78 defense (start: #126). Last year Miami wrecked that heuristic by starting with the #133 defense and making the Final Four; they ended up at #99. Maybe the new lore is: you can't make the Final Four without having a defense that finishes in the top 100. So Illinois has nothing to worry about!

Season overview: UConn

• Wins vs. tournament teams (10): =(7)Texas+10, =(1)North Carolina+11, @(5)Gonzaga+13, (3)Creighton+14, (2)Marquette+28, @(2)Marquette+7, =(2)Marquette+16, =(16)Stetson+39, =(9)Northwestern+17, (5)San Diego St.+30
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (7): =(1)North Carolina+11, @(5)Gonzaga+13, (3)Creighton+14, (2)Marquette+28, @(2)Marquette+7, =(2)Marquette+16, (5)San Diego St.+30
• Losses to tournament teams (2): @(4)Kansas-4, @(3)Creighton-19
• Other losses (1): @Seton Hall-15

Overview: Just like we noted with Marquette, the Big East teams are going to show very few tournament wins because all the Big East teams got left out. It's basically the Big East Big Three and whoever you played in non-conference, so a 1-seed like UConn has just seven big wins. One of those was 1-seed North Carolina though, and 5-seed Gonzaga is always impressive. They lost to 4-seed Kansas, and even to Seton Hall (one of the bracket-busted Big East teams). Note that of their 7 original tourney wins, six now count as wins over the Sweet Sixteen.

UConn is looking to repeat as champs and everyone is falling over themselves comparing them to 2007 Florida, but as I've said, the danger is them resembling 2017 Villanova. The 2017 Wildcats, trying to repeat their 2016 championship, entered the 2nd round 32-3 and lost to 8-seed Wisconsin. Will UConn fall in the 2nd round to a middle-seeded Big Ten team as well? The answer was no, and neither did they fall in the Sweet Sixteen, which no other defending national champ has made it past—since 2007 Florida.

The Huskies are led by Tristen Newton's 15.2 ppg and four others average in double figures. Donovan Clingan scored 20 points in UConn's 91-52 first round win over Stetson. The Huskies didn't slow down at all against Northwestern, winning easily 73-58 behind Newton's 20 points. The Huskies simply blew away San Diego State, 82-52, as Cam Spencer led with 18.  

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Illinois

• Wins vs. tournament teams (12): (14)Oakland+11, =(8)Florida Atlantic+9, (14)Colgate+17, (9)Northwestern+30, (9)Michigan St.+3, (8)Nebraska+OT, @(5)Wisconsin+8, =(8)Nebraska+11, =(5)Wisconsin+6, =(14)Morehead St.+16, =(11)Duquesne+16, =(2)Iowa St.+3
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(2)Iowa St.+3
• Losses to tournament teams (6): (2)Marquette-7, @(2)Tennessee-7, @(1)Purdue-5, @(9)Northwestern-OT, @(9)Michigan St.-8, (1)Purdue-6
• Other losses (2): Maryland-9, @Penn St.-1

Overview: How is this for a chart? Doesn't that just say, #11 in the nation in consistency? It's like a picket fence. A few aberrations, yes—like the 104-71 win over Fairleigh Dickinson which causes a spike in game 13, and the game 16 loss to Maryland at home, one of only two to non-tournament teams this year for the Illini. This is the chart of team that is consistent enough to not have a dud game kick them out of the tournament early. They've proven that now by reaching the Sweet Sixteen, but they haven't beaten another Sweet Sixteen team.

Illinois is great on offense, but not nearly as great on the other side of the court. Four players average in double figures led by Terrence Shannon's 23.0 ppg. He had 26 against Morehead State in the opener and 30 against Duquesne in the 2nd round. Shannon scored 29 as Illinois led the whole way—but just barely—and beat Iowa State, 72-69 to reach the Elite Eight.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: This game will pit the top two offensive teams in college basketball at the moment. As well as one of the best defenses, and a very mediocre defense.

How does Illinois win this game? You got me. I've been betting (not literally) against UConn for a couple of games now, thinking their time was due for an upset, for that bad game they've had maybe 2 or 3 times this year. And it could happen—it might be the only way Illinois wins.

Because Illinois is not inconsistent enough to have the upside game necessary to beat UConn. Even when Terrence Shannon has 30 points, the rest of the team plays average basketball. When he doesn't, they pick up the slack so that the team still plays ok. But they never all seem to take the team to greater heights, rarely even to the heights of UConn's average game. And never to the level UConn is playing at right now.

So it will take a UConn de-railment. They have to beat themselves by having a downside performance that opens the door for the Illini. And looking at the matchup, Illinois seems tailor-made for UConn. The Illini might rebound well on offense or get to the line a bit. But there's little else even their top-notch offense does better than UConn's defense. And on the other side of the court it's all UConn.

Short of Terrence Shannon having over 30 points—about 50%—and UConn having a terrible game—about 10%—I don't see Illinois winning. That gives them a 5% chance. The numbers below will give a more realistic assessement based on the whole season, but for how UConn is playing over the last 10 games or so, 5% is probably about right.

Vegas Line:

UConn by   8 1/2

Power rating: spread

UConn by   8.3

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

UConn:     73.3% 
Illinois:  26.7% 

Vegas is clearly giving UConn home court advantage, as their line exceeds the Strength power rating margin which does give the Huskies home court. Only UConn's inconsistency limits their odds to win at 73%, which is still a lot higher than the historical 64% for 1-seeds vs. 3-seeds. Without home court we would give UConn a 66% chance to win, so that matches up with history pretty well. 

Bottom line:  UConn can only beat themselves with a bad game, which just hasn't happened when I thought it would. So I'm a convert I guess. Does this mean the Illini have a chance, since I've been wrong about UConn's luck running out so far?

Final prediction: UConn 83, Illinois 70

More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.

 

2024 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (2) Tennessee vs. (3) Creighton

All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule

Tennessee Volunteers
Seed: 2
Record: 26-8
Conference: SEC

vs.

Creighton Bluejays
Seed: 3
Record: 25-9
Conference: Big East

Date: Friday, March 29
Time: 10:09pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Detroit, MI  
Channel: TBS/truTV

 

2-seed vs. 3-seed games are always worthwhile and this one shouldn't disappoint.

     Tennessee                          Creighton

Power Ratings

Strength:          #7              Strength:          #12
   Median:   #8                       Median:   #16
   Markov:   #7                       Markov:   #12
Pomeroy:           #8              Pomeroy:           #11
   Offense:  #30                      Offense:  #11
   Defense:  #3                       Defense:  #23
BPI:               #8              BPI:               #10
LRMC:              #8              LRMC:              #11

Other Measures:

Tempo (Offense):   #24             Tempo (Offense):   #182
Consistency:       #266            Consistency:       #300
2nd half season:   #5              2nd half season:   #14
Last 6:            #20             Last 6:            #18

Tennessee, the 2-seed, outranks 3-seed Creighton about to the extent you'd expect in a matchup like this. They both rank in a narrow range, the Vols either #7 or #8, and the Bluejays from #10 to #12. Pretty strong agreement there that Tennessee should be a very slight favorite. The Volunteers are a bit more spaced apart in offensive and defensive efficiency, with their #3 defense contributing more than their #30 offense, which the Bluejays are more balanced and their offense carries more of the load. But it ends up so that Tennessee is a bit stronger on both sides of the court by a narrow margin.

A bit of a tempo clash as Tennessee runs and Creighton strolls, and both teams are fairly inconsistent so there is a lot more potential variety in the outcome. Neither team has played their best recently but recovered enough in their last 2 games to make the Sweet Sixteen.

 

Season overview: Tennessee

• Wins vs. tournament teams (12): @(5)Wisconsin+10, (3)Illinois+7, =(11)N.C. State+9, (7)Florida+19, (4)Alabama+20, @(3)Kentucky+11, (9)Texas A&M+35, (4)Auburn+8, @(4)Alabama+7, @(6)South Carolina+7, =(15)Saint Peter's+34, =(7)Texas+4
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): (3)Illinois+7, =(11)N.C. State+9, (4)Alabama+20, @(4)Alabama+7
• Losses to tournament teams (8): =(1)Purdue-4, =(4)Kansas-9, @(1)North Carolina-8, @(8)Mississippi St.-5, (6)South Carolina-4, @(9)Texas A&M-16, (3)Kentucky-4, =(8)Mississippi St.-17
• Other losses (0): None

Overview: Well, this chart almost gave me pause. I didn't like how it ended for Tennessee, a slow drop-off to the two losses, finishing in their worst performance of the season. Talk about ending on a bad note. They recovered from it with the opening wins, but it sure shows wildly erratic play game to game, and losing in the first round of your conference championship is a red flag for Final Four advancement. But let's look at the good: 10 wins over tournament teams, and quite significantly, zero losses to non-tournament teams. Along the way Tennessee beat 3-seed Illinois, 3-seed Kentucky, and 4-seed Alabama and 4-seed Auburn twice each. They also lost to both 1-seeds they faced, Purdue and North Carolina.

Tennessee is better on defense (where they are elite) than on offense, but they're no slouch. Naismith short-lister Dalton Knecht averages 21.1 points per game and shoots almost 40% behind the 3-pt line. In the St. Peter's win Knecht had 23 on 4 of 8 3-point shooting; he led with 18 against Texas.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Creighton

• Wins vs. tournament teams (6): @(8)Nebraska+29, (4)Alabama+3, (1)Connecticut+19, (2)Marquette+14, =(13)Akron+17, =(11)Oregon+2OT
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): (4)Alabama+3, (1)Connecticut+19, (2)Marquette+14
• Losses to tournament teams (3): =(10)Colorado St.-21, @(2)Marquette-5, @(1)Connecticut-14
• Other losses (6): @UNLV-15, Villanova-OT, Butler-1, @Providence-OT, @St. John's-14, =Providence-5

Overview: Creighton has played some great basketball interrupted by the occasional meltdown performance. They had a long period of consistent play in the middle of the season but early on, and later, their erratic play was confounding. The losses to Colorado State (69-48, game 6) and UNLV (79-64, game 10) weren't far removed from an 89-60 beatdown of 8-seed Nebraska. And late in the season they beat Butler 79-57 on the road, and 1-seed UConn 85-66, then lost to St. John's by 14 and to Providence in the Big East tournament. Is this team consistent enough to make a Final Four run?

7-1 Ryan Kalkbrenner is part of a trio averaging 53 points per game. Kalkbrenner led with 23 against Akron. Creighton beat Oregon 86-73 in a double overtime thriller where 4th-leading scorer Steven Ashworth had 21 points. 

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Tennessee and Creighton both had great opening games and very close 2nd games. In each case, Tennessee played a bit better.

When Creighton has the ball it's one of the best shooting teams in the country against nearly the best defending team. Creighton shoots 60% on 2s and Tennessee allows only 44%, #3 and #8 in the nation respectively. The teams' 3-point rankings (shooting and defending) are similar too, and that's where Creighton likes to focus on offense. Perhaps since they don't miss a lot the Bluejays aren't a good offensive rebounding team, so Tennessee should do better on the boards than they usually do. Tennessee normally fouls quite a bit but Creighton rarely gets to the line so that's another pleasant surprise for the Vols, perhaps. The Vols might also cause trouble with steals and blocks.

Tennessee isn't nearly as good of a shooting team and depends a lot on 2nd chances from rebounds, but Creighton is a great defensive rebounding team and this could disrupt Tennessee's normal flow. The Vols have nothing to worry about in terms of turnovers as Creighton is 4th from last in steals. But they shouldn't count on getting to the free throw line much at all since the Bluejays are also last in committing fouls (which goes along with not going for steals).

Bottom line is that both offenses might struggle, as the offensive and defensive efficiency cross-comparison would imply.

Dalton Knecht is kind of an X factor for Tennessee. He sometimes scores 40, sometimes 14, and you don't know when its going to happen. Or what the result of the game will be. He's gone over 35 points five times this year, and Tennessee is 3-2 in those games. Another factor might be Creighton's height. Tennessee is a shorter team and the Bluejays are a few inches taller across the board.

Vegas Line:

Tennessee by   2 1/2

Power rating: spread

Tennessee by   2.0

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Tennessee:     57.0% 
Creighton:     43.0% 

2-seeds vs. 3-seeds are supposed to be close games, and this one looks ready to live up to it. 2-seeds normally win around 62%, so this might be closer than normal.

Bottom line: There's got to be at least a few minor upsets this tournament, and with both teams so volatile this could be one.

Final prediction: Creighton 69, Tennessee 66

More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.

 

2024 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Houston vs. (4) Duke

All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule

Houston Cougars
Seed: 1
Record: 32-4
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Duke Blue Devils
Seed: 4
Record: 26-8
Conference: ACC

Date: Friday, March 29
Time: 9:39pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Dallas, TX  
Channel: CBS

 

Is Houston vulnerable after their near-loss? Or stronger for playing close to home in Texas?

     Houston                            Duke

Power Ratings

Strength:          #1              Strength:          #9
   Median:   #3                       Median:   #6
   Markov:   #3                       Markov:   #10
Pomeroy:           #2              Pomeroy:           #6
   Offense:  #14                      Offense:  #5
   Defense:  #2                       Defense:  #18
BPI:               #1              BPI:               #7
LRMC:              #2              LRMC:              #12

Other Measures:

Tempo (Offense):   #322            Tempo (Offense):   #162
Consistency:       #140            Consistency:       #207
2nd half season:   #2              2nd half season:   #10
Last 6:            #5              Last 6:            #7

Houston is obviously a strong 1-seed, either #1 or #2 in all the power ratings. Duke is a strong 4-seed though, in the top ten of the power ratings except LRMC which doesn't update past Selection Sunday. The offense and defensive matchups are very close, with Houston having a slight edge in both cross-pairings. 

This closeness continues to the recent play numbers as well. Duke won their last game with a blowout while Houston had an overtime nail-biter. Does this affect who gets to the Elite Eight?

Season overview: Houston

• Wins vs. tournament teams (14): (16)Stetson+31, =(7)Dayton+14, (9)Texas A&M+4, (6)Texas Tech+23, @(6)BYU+7, @(7)Texas+OT, (7)Texas+21, (2)Iowa St.+8, @(3)Baylor+OT, (4)Kansas+30, =(9)TCU+15, =(6)Texas Tech+23, (16)Longwood+40, =(9)Texas A&M+OT
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): (2)Iowa St.+8
• Losses to tournament teams (4): @(2)Iowa St.-4, @(9)TCU-1, @(4)Kansas-13, =(2)Iowa St.-28
• Other losses (0): None

Overview: Now that's what I call a 1-seed résumé: a dozen wins over tournament teams; a handful of losses to tournament teams; and no losses to non-tourney teams. It looks like a national champ's chart—until that last loss to Iowa State, which raised questions on how it might affect them going forward. In the first round against Longwood they went up 10-0 immediately and led 43-16 at the half. No hangover at all.

Houston's defense (#2 shot defense; #3 in blocked shots; #2 in steals) is the key to their success, but their offense is top-level, too; they play a slower, methodical offense which emphasizes crashing the boards for rebounds, which they need because frankly they don't shoot the ball very well (#229 in effective FG%). Three Cougars average in double figures led by LJ Cryer's 15.3. Cryer and Damien Dunn led with 17 each against Longwood. Just two games after their worst loss the Cougars had their weakest win, needing overtime to finally put away Texas A&M 100-95; Emanuel Sharp's 30 points led the way in a game where four starters fouled out.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Duke

• Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(9)Michigan St.+9, =(3)Baylor+8, (6)Clemson+1, (10)Virginia+25, @(11)N.C. State+15, =(13)Vermont+17, =(12)James Madison+38
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): (6)Clemson+1, @(11)N.C. State+15
• Losses to tournament teams (4): (2)Arizona-5, @(1)North Carolina-9, (1)North Carolina-5, =(11)N.C. State-5
• Other losses (4): @Arkansas-5, @Georgia Tech-4, Pittsburgh-4, @Wake Forest-4

Overview: Like any Duke season expectations start high, and the Blue Devils play good teams and expectations are reset. Losing to Arizona at home was a wakeup call, but beating Michigan State helped assuage worries. Losing to Arkansas wasn't considered such an awful thing at the time, but losing to Georgia Tech for a 5-3 start sounded alarms. The Blue Devils won their next 8 games (including a win over 3-seed Baylor) going 19-5 the rest of the way. They lost twice to 1-seed North Carolina however, which showed there limitations, which were again exposed by the loss to NC State in the ACC tournament.

Duke has five players in double figures led by 7-0 Center Kyle Filipowski at 17.1; he adds 8.2 rebounds per game. Surprisingly against a short Vermont team in 37 minutes he managed just 3 points on 0-1 shooting; Mark Mitchell and Jared McCain picked up the slack with 15 each. Duke played incredibly in the 93-55 blowout of James Madison, with Jared McCain pouring in 30 points on 8 of 11 threes.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Houston is coming off one of their worst performances of the season—not nearly as bad as the Iowa State loss, but their weakest performance in a winning effort—while Duke is coming off their strongest game yet. Regardless of whether this momentum continues for both teams, there is the matter of Houston's fouling on defense, and whether they will see the same foul trouble against Duke.

Four Cougar starters fouled out against Texas A&M. As a team they're in the top 50 in terms of fouls committed per opponent FG attempt. That and lack of rebounding are the only weakness in their defense—they defend the 2 and 3 incredible well (top ten in both), are #2 in steals and #2 in blocked shots. Their opponents even shoot a bad free throw percentage! Duke on offense is solid across the board except they get a lot of shots blocked, so that will be a problem against Houston for sure. They should rebound well on offense, and they are reasonably good at getting to the line and that's where the Cougars' problem lies. They can play great defense, but what if they get into foul trouble again?

Their offense could be affected by that. On offense Houston takes their time and often just runs the clock down before running a play. They don't shoot the ball well at all but rebound like mad and avoid turnovers. Duke's rebounding is pretty good on defense and they rarely foul, which should limit Houston's free throw chances to very few.

So bottom line, Duke will have a lot of free throws, but probably not as many as Texas A&M did. The Aggies run a weird, aggressive offense that just clashed with Houston's active man-to-man in a way that led to lots of fouls by the Cougars. It won't be as extreme with Duke's offense. The Blue Devils will have a lot of shots blocked though by Houston's #2 shot blockers. The Cougars won't find matters easy on offense though as Duke also rebounds well on defense. Rebounding in general is Duke's key to the game, to get 2nd chances on offense and limit Houston's offense.

That's all on paper, of course. In the end though, both these teams have been so up-and-down over the last three or four games that we really don't know what we're going to get.

Vegas Line:

Houston by   4 1/2

Power rating: spread

Houston by   4.6 / 7.5

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Houston:    65.0% / 72.3%
Duke:       35.0% / 27.7%

Vegas may be giving a bit of home court consideration, since they are normally a point or two lower than the Strength power rating margin, and they match it almost exactly. I don't think Houston should be granted the full three points but they are playing in-state.

1-seeds beat 4-seeds about 72% of the time, or roughly our odds if we give Houston the home court.

Bottom line: Duke's last game was fantastic, their best of the season, so they're bound to come down. And Texas A&M's style is exactly Houston's anathema as seen by the two very close games. Houston won't foul as much against Duke and we'll see them at their best again.

Final prediction: Houston 72, Duke 64

More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.

 

2024 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Purdue vs. (5) Gonzaga

All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule

Purdue Boilermakers
Seed: 1
Record: 31-4
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 5
Record: 27-7
Conference: West Coast

Date: Friday, March 29
Time: 7:39pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Detroit, MI  
Channel: TBS/truTV

 

What a great game, this is what March Madness is about. Can Gonzaga win the rematch?

     Purdue                             Gonzaga

Power Ratings

Strength:          #3              Strength:          #16
   Median:   #4                       Median:   #17
   Markov:   #2                       Markov:   #15
Pomeroy:           #3              Pomeroy:           #12
   Offense:  #3                       Offense:  #7
   Defense:  #16                      Defense:  #41
BPI:               #3              BPI:               #14
LRMC:              #4              LRMC:              #15

Other Measures:

Tempo (Offense):   #219            Tempo (Offense):   #46
Consistency:       #190            Consistency:       #156
2nd half season:   #3              2nd half season:   #11
Last 6:            #4(7)           Last 6:            #3(2)

Purdue is a solid (and obvious) 1-seed, while Gonzaga is a very strong 5-seed; the numbers bear this out. Of the power rating figures, the cross-comparison of offenses and defenses shows both teams have the edge when they have the ball—the bigger edge being Purdue's #3 offense vs. Gonzaga's #41 defense.

The Zags tempo could give the Boilermakers some issues. Both teams have played great recently, and both played one of their best games of the season in their last win. Remove the outsized effect of the big win and Purdue drops to #7, while Gonzaga rises to #2. Suffice it to say both teams are playing well and we'll look at the charts for the particulars.

 

Season overview: Purdue

• Wins vs. tournament teams (15): (13)Samford+53, (14)Morehead St.+30, =(5)Gonzaga+10, =(2)Tennessee+4, =(2)Marquette+3, =(4)Alabama+6, (2)Arizona+8, (3)Illinois+5, (9)Northwestern+OT, @(5)Wisconsin+6, (9)Michigan St.+6, @(3)Illinois+6, (5)Wisconsin+8, =(9)Michigan St.+5, =(16)Grambling St.+28, =(8)Utah St.+39
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (7): =(5)Gonzaga+10, =(2)Tennessee+4, =(2)Marquette+3, =(4)Alabama+6, (2)Arizona+8, (3)Illinois+5, @(3)Illinois+6
• Losses to tournament teams (3): @(9)Northwestern-OT, @(8)Nebraska-16, =(5)Wisconsin-OT
• Other losses (1): @Ohio St.-4

Overview: Purdue has one hell of a résumé, with three 2-seeds (Tennessee, Marquette, and Arizona) among their non-conference wins, the first two on neutral courts. They beat 4-seed Alabama and 5-seed Gonzaga (both underseeded for how good they are), again, on neutral courts. And their best non-conference wins might have been beating 13-seed Samford 98-45 and 14-seed Morehead State 87-57 in their first two games. Purdue has 7 wins over the Sweet Sixteen from six different conferences, each one except the ACC and Mountain West.

The Big Ten is where Purdue suffered all four losses, and to some fairly pedestrian teams: 5-seed Wisconsin, 8-seed Nebraska, 9-seed Northwestern, and NIT pick Ohio State. Two of the four losses were in overtime. 

Purdue revolves around Zack Edey, a two time Player of the Year. He puts up 24.4 points and grabs 11.7 rebounds per game. Four other Boilermakers average double figures but he's the man; without him, they'd probably be an 8-seed playing a 1-seed instead of the other way around. Edey had 30 points and 21 rebounds against Grambling State. Purdue might have played their best game (2nd best, by our chart numbers) of the season in beating Utah State 106-67, with Edey scoring 23.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Gonzaga

• Wins vs. tournament teams (5): (13)Yale+15, @(3)Kentucky+4, @(5)Saint Mary's+13, =(12)McNeese St.+21, =(4)Kansas+21
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =(1)Purdue-10, (1)Connecticut-13, (5)San Diego St.-10, (5)Saint Mary's-2, =(5)Saint Mary's-9
• Other losses (2): @Washington-5, @Santa Clara-1

Overview: Gonzaga played two 1-seeds this year and lost to both Purdue and UConn by low double-digits. Not bad, but the usual standard for Gonzaga has become so high that it's a disappointment they didn't beat both. Expectations were so low at one point that the win at Kentucky was celebrated for locking up an at-large bid (the Zags haven't missed the tournament since 1998). None of the teams they beat reached the Sweet Sixteen.

The faces and focus of the team has changed—Drew Timme is gone, fyi—but the winning continues, still running a fast-paced offense with four in double figures now led by Graham Ike's 16.5 ppg. Ike had 16 against McNeese State, while Anton Watson's 21 paced the 'Zags in the 89-68 win over Kansas.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: These teams met in November in Hawaii and Purdue came out on top, 73-63. But as an exercise let's look at the teams "on paper" and see what "should" happen in the game, and if it did back then.

Purdue on offense revolves around Zack Edey but in terms of shooting, the Boilermakers are best at 3-pointers—literally #1, making 41%. Gonzaga's defense there is not great, either. But the Zags are good at defending the 2-pointer; Edey shoots 62% but as a team Purdue makes just 53% vs. 45% for Gonzaga's D. But when Purdue misses they get the rebound, a lot—they're #6 in offensive rebounding. This makes Purdue very tough to guard—great inside presence, and huge 3-point threat with great rebounding. The Purdue edge here is immense. And critically, Gonzaga does not force many turnovers, which could be a leveling force.

Can Gonzaga keep up? The Zags shoot the ball better than almost anyone, and while Purdue defends very well, Gonzaga will have an edge in 2-pointers where they shoot 58%. They also don't have to worry much about steals, or even blocked shots surprisingly. But Purdue is a really good rebounding team on defense, so Gonzaga's normal offensive rebounding edge isn't there. They will probably rarely get to the free throw line, either.

So while Gonzaga should do well on offense, it's not enough to expect to overcome Purdue's edge on defense, and the main reasons are Purdue's inside-outside versatility and their rebounding edge. We wouldn't expect many steals or blocked shots from either team, and while Purdue gets to the free throw line less than they normally do (which is a lot), Gonzaga hardly gets there at all. 

Here's how the game in November played out: Purdue got to the free throw line 16 times (normal is 24), Gonzaga just 8 times. Turnovers were a bit higher for both teams than would be expected "on paper" but not outragious (13 and 14). Very few blocked shots, as "predicted" (3 and 2). Perhaps surprisingly rebounding was even overall, 38 to 38, with Purdue getting 5 more on defense, Gonzaga 5 more on offense. Which means that Gonzaga did better than expected on offensive rebounding, and as well as expected on defense. Purdue had a poor day from the 3-point line, making just 4 of 17 (24%) and Gonzaga did worse (6 of 32, 19%), while the teams shot well on 2s (56% and 54%). The latter is a bit surprising as we would expect Gonzaga to shoot better there than Purdue. The big difference really was free throws, as Purdue took 8 more and made 8 more, which is most of the 10 point difference.

So in the end, the analysis and real-life game pretty much fit, other than 3-point shots which didn't fall for either team. But if you add some makes for both teams the game doesn't change much; it just makes the score match the expected point totals, as 73-63 is on the lower side of production for this matchup. In the end it was free throws, but it was interesting that Purdue didn't get as many offensive rebounds as they "were supposed to."

Vegas Line:

Purdue by   5 1/2

Power rating: spread

Purdue by   6.2

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Purdue:     66.1% 
Gonzaga:    33.9% 

Kind of a surprisingly low line from Vegas—normally they're below the Strength power rating's estimate. It's also lower than the 10-point margin of the first game. Gonzaga's win over Kansas probably looks more impressive due to the team they beat but Purdue's win over Utah State was the better performances, easily—especially considering Kansas was short-handed. 1-seeds normally beat 5-seeds about 80% of the time, but like we said, Gonzaga is an excellent 5-seed so the 2/3 odds make sense.

We could even discuss partial home court edge for the Boilermakers, as the Zags are traveling 2,300 miles across 3 time zones to the east, and Purdue is close enough for fans to drive there.

Bottom line: These teams have had a great tournament start, both completely erasing the sting of their conference tournament losses. Whatever path this game follows I think the end result is the same now as it was in November, with Purdue getting the win in a game where both teams make their 3s this time.

Final prediction: Purdue 87, Gonzaga 78

More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.

 

2024 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (2) Marquette vs. (11) NC State

All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule

Marquette Golden Eagles
Seed: 2
Record: 27-9
Conference: Big East

vs.

NC State Wolfpacl
Seed: 11
Record: 24-14
Conference: ACC

Date: Friday, March 29
Time: 7:09pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Dallas, TX  
Channel: CBS

 

Don't look now but the ACC has four teams in the Sweet Sixteen. The Big East has three, but they were all seeded to get there.

     Marquette                          NC State

Power Ratings

Strength:          #15             Strength:          #58
   Median:   #10                      Median:   #69
   Markov:   #11                      Markov:   #35
Pomeroy:           #13             Pomeroy:           #53
   Offense:  #19                      Offense:  #42
   Defense:  #21                      Defense:  #75
BPI:               #13             BPI:               #48
LRMC:              #10             LRMC:              #50

Other Measures:

Tempo:             #9              Tempo:             #106
Consistency:       #137            Consistency:       #39
2nd half season:   #12             2nd half season:   #49
Last 6:            #24             Last 6:            #13

Marquette has the clear edge here metric-wise but they have to overcome NC State's incredible surge. The full-year figures show quite a gulf, with the Golden Eagles having a big advantage either with the ball or defending the goal. But look at just the last six games for NC State and they're at Marquette's level. Meanwhile Marquette's Last 6 games looks like a concern but they were missing Tyler Kolek for the games before the tournament. Still, with NC State's recent surge this is a roughly even game.

What's interesting is that NC State is still one of the most consistent teams in the country, despite their recent surge. Their last 6 games consist of four well-above-average performances and two overtime wins. Lose either of those overtime games and they aren't here.

Season overview: Marquette

• Wins vs. tournament teams (6): @(3)Illinois+7, =(4)Kansas+14, (7)Texas+21, (3)Creighton+5, =(15)Western Kentucky+18, =(10)Colorado+4
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): @(3)Illinois+7, (3)Creighton+5
• Losses to tournament teams (6): =(1)Purdue-3, @(5)Wisconsin-11, @(1)Connecticut-28, @(3)Creighton-14, (1)Connecticut-7, =(1)Connecticut-16
• Other losses (3): @Providence-15, @Seton Hall-3, Butler-7

Overview: Marquette ended up with the #6 Strength of Schedule but only played 10 games against tournament teams. Blame the Selection Committee for excluding so many Big East teams for that. They beat 3-seed Illinois and 4-seed Kansas in the first five games of the year, then lost to Big Ten teams Wisconsin and Purdue. The latter was their first shot at beating a 1-seed; they got three more attempts vs. UConn and ended up 0-4. 

The Eagles finished with a dismal 3-3 run, but 2nd-leading scorer Tyler Kolek (15.0ppg) missed all those games. Kam Jones is the #1 scorer for the Eagles with 16.8; both he and Kolek shoot over 40% from the 3-point line. Jones led with 28 in the first round win over Western Kentucky. Kolek had 21 against Colorado, shooting 10 of 14 from the floor.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: NC State

• Wins vs. tournament teams (7): (10)Virginia+16, @(6)Clemson+1, =(4)Duke+5, =(10)Virginia+OT, =(1)North Carolina+8, =(6)Texas Tech+13, =(14)Oakland+OT
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): @(6)Clemson+1, =(4)Duke+5, =(1)North Carolina+8
• Losses to tournament teams (6): =(6)BYU-9, =(2)Tennessee-9, (1)North Carolina-13, @(10)Virginia-OT, @(1)North Carolina-9, (4)Duke-15
• Other losses (8): @Mississippi-20, Virginia Tech-6, @Syracuse-12, Pittsburgh-3, @Wake Forest-4, Syracuse-4, @Florida St.-7, @Pittsburgh-8

Overview: NC State was a good team all year—good, not great, and not really threatening to most teams. They played a really easy non-conference schedule and lost to all the decent teams they faced (BYU, Ole Miss, Tennessee). They picked up early ACC wins over B.C. and Virginia, though, so in conference play they looked like a potential thorn. For the most part they continued to lose to good teams, culminating in a 4-game skid at the end that destroyed any hope they had of an at-large bid. So instead, they suddenly became a great team and beat Louisville, Syracuse, 4-seed Duke, 10-seed Virginia, and 1-seed North Carolina in a five day span. It's not quite like UConn of 2009 (who won 5 straight to win the Big East, beating a 6-seed, 1-seed, 3-seed, and 4-seed along the way) but it's pretty close. So while we don't expect a national title out of the Wolfpack, history suggests there could be more good things to come. NC State a win over each of the other Sweet Sixteen ACC teams.

DJ Horne leads four starters in double figures for the 'Pack, but against Texas Tech it was reserve Ben Middlebrooks leading with 21 points; he made 6 of 8 shots and 9 of 10 free throws. In the 79-73 overtime thriller vs. Oakland it was big man DJ Burns leading the way with 24 on 9 of 12 shooting.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: When will NC State come back down to earth? Ever? Or are they following 2011 UConn's path to a championship—win five games in a tournament, then run the table at the Big Dance? That would really be something for an 11-seed.

For Marquette, getting past the first round means that the players that were injured and returned have more time to get back to 100%. Kolek, of course, missed several games but starters Stevie Mitchell and Oso Ighodaro battled injuries near the end of the regular season. Five days off should make a big difference.

Marquette shoots the ball very well and should have a great day vs. NC State's defense. They don't rebound well on offense at all, but the Wolfpack aren't a good rebounding team either. The Eagles protect the ball well but don't get many free throw chances at all.

When NC State has the ball, it's the Wolfpack's mediocre shooting vs. Marquette's mediocre defending. Marquette's defense loves to cause turnovers but NC State protects the ball really well. They aren't great at either the 3-point or 2-point shot, nor do they rebound well, but they still have the rebounding edge on Marquette here, too, so they could get some 2nd chances they don't usually get. 

Regardless of NC State's recent surge it's hard to look past the field goal percentages. It's not like the Wolfpack have that big of a rebounding edge either. They aren't a good rebounding team, that's just Marquette's weakness. To pick NC State you have to believe that their surge is continuing. The Oakland overtime win was their worst performance in their last 8 games, however.

Vegas Line:

Marquette by   6 1/2

Power rating: spread

Marquette by   7.5

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Marquette:    71.9% 
NC State:     28.1% 

Pretty solid agreement, as usual, between Vegas and Strength. Marquette's 70-ish percent odds are lower than the historical odds of the rare 2-seed vs. 11-seed matchup, where 2-seeds are 14-4 (78%). If we look at just NC State's recent surge, the odds flip to 70% in the Wolfpack's favor as a 3-point favorite. 

Bottom line: I had NC State getting to the Sweet Sixteen but not the Elite Eight; few people are surprised that their ACC tournament momentum carried into the tournament. But this is where I had their run ending, and I'm sticking with Marquette.

Final prediction: Marquette 80, NC State 70

More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.

 

2024 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (2) Iowa State vs. (3) Illinois

All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule

Iowa State Cyclones
Seed: 2
Record: 29-7
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Illinois Fighting Illini
Seed: 3
Record: 28-8
Conference: Big Ten

Date: Thursday, March 28
Time: 10:09pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Boston, MA  
Channel: TBS/truTV

 

Want to see the nation's #1 offense against the #1 defense? UConn or Purdue vs. Houston? Nope, it's when Illinois has the ball vs. Iowa State.

     Iowa State                         Illinois

Power Ratings

Strength:          #6              Strength:          #11
   Median:   #7                       Median:   #15
   Markov:   #8                       Markov:   #9
Pomeroy:           #7              Pomeroy:           #10
   Offense:  #49                      Offense:  #1
   Defense:  #1                       Defense:  #92
BPI:               #6              BPI:               #11
LRMC:              #6              LRMC:              #9

Other Measures:

Tempo (Offense):   #153            Tempo (Offense):   #161
Consistency:       #257            Consistency:       #12
2nd half season:   #6              2nd half season:   #13
Last 6:            #2              Last 6:            #8

A very good 2-vs.3-seed game. Iowa State has the edge in Strength and BPI by 5 spots and in Pomeroy and LRMC by 3 spots. They're farther apart by Median and very close by Markov. But the interesting comparison is Illinois' on offense vs. Iowa State's defense—both #1 in the nation. When Illinois has the ball, this is a national-title level game. When Iowa State has the ball it looks like a first round game, maybe a 5-seed vs. a 12-seed. But it might be where Iowa State wins the game.

Both teams play moderate tempo on offense, and we've noted Illinois' consistency before. Both teams have upped their games, as have most Sweet Sixteen teams, but Iowa State is #2 thanks mostly to their big win over Houston at the end of the regular season. With peak games excluded, Iowa State is #5 and Illinois #6 over the last six, so it's a close one.

Season overview: Iowa State

• Wins vs. tournament teams (12): (16)Grambling St.+55, (1)Houston+4, @(9)TCU+1, (4)Kansas+4, @(7)Texas+5, (9)TCU+12, (6)Texas Tech+8, (6)BYU+5, =(3)Baylor+14, =(1)Houston+28, =(15)South Dakota St.+17, =(7)Washington St.+9
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2):(1)Houston+4, =(1)Houston+28
• Losses to tournament teams (4): =(9)Texas A&M-4, @(6)BYU-15, @(3)Baylor-2, @(1)Houston-8
• Other losses (3): =Virginia Tech-9, @Oklahoma-8, @Kansas St.-7

Overview: Iowa State demonstrated elite defense from the start, the question was would their offense catch up at all? It didn't but that's because their defense went to #1 on Kenpom. They were blowing out overmatched opponents early in the season but when they handed Houston its first loss, people started to wake up to the Cyclones. Still, they went back to sleep until the final wake up call: Iowa State 69, Houston 41, a literal off-the-charts performance. Their wins over Houston are their only Sweet Sixteen wins upon reaching that level themselves.

So what does this mean? I've been comparing it to Xavier's beatdown of #1 St. Joe's in 2004. Xavier ended up feeding off the game and made it to the Elite Eight as a 7-seed. Iowa State is obviously still capable of breakdowns on offense that lead to bad losses (like Kansas State recently). And cockiness might become an issue. Iowa State has a history of losing as a high seed. Though clearly known for their defense, Iowa State has four starters in double figures led by Keshon Gilbert's 13.8ppg. Forward Milan Momcilovic led with 19 against South Dakota State. Point Tamin Lipsey led the 'Clones against Washington State with 15.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Illinois

• Wins vs. tournament teams (11): (14)Oakland+11, =(8)Florida Atlantic+9, (14)Colgate+17, (9)Northwestern+30, (9)Michigan St.+3, (8)Nebraska+OT, @(5)Wisconsin+8, =(8)Nebraska+11, =(5)Wisconsin+6, =(14)Morehead St.+16, =(11)Duquesne+16
  
• Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
• Losses to tournament teams (6): (2)Marquette-7, @(2)Tennessee-7, @(1)Purdue-5, @(9)Northwestern-OT, @(9)Michigan St.-8, (1)Purdue-6
• Other losses (2): Maryland-9, @Penn St.-1

Overview: How is this for a chart? Doesn't that just say, #11 in the nation in consistency? It's like a picket fence. A few aberrations, yes—like the 104-71 win over Fairleigh Dickinson which causes a spike in game 13, and the game 16 loss to Maryland at home, one of only two to non-tournament teams this year for the Illini. This is the chart of team that is consistent enough to not have a dud game kick them out of the tournament early. They've proven that now by reaching the Sweet Sixteen, but they haven't beaten another Sweet Sixteen team.

Illinois is great on offense, but not nearly as great on the other side of the court. Four players average in double figures led by Terrence Shannon's 23.0 ppg. He had 26 against Morehead State in the opener and 30 against Duquesne in the 2nd round.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Iowa State's defense is certainly elite, but they are tasked with stopping the Illinois offense led by Terrence Shannon, who is on fire lately.

Are there any mismatches or advantages when Illinois has the ball? The Illini shoot the ball about as well as the Cyclones defend, though they have a slight advantage on 2-point shots (where Shannon hits 59%). Illinois should also get quite a few 2nd shots as they rebound well and ISU doesn't here. Illinois will get to the line a lot too, where they shoot 74.4%. Iowa State loves to create turnovers and while Illinois is solid at ball control, the Cyclones are #2 in steals. Iowa State allows teams oportunities to shoot the three; if the Illini get hot there they have a big advantage.

If that side of the court is a draw between elite teams, the other side is a sloppier affair where Iowa State ought to have the edge. Illinois' defense creates few if any turnovers and doesn't defend the 3-point line well. Other than that they aren't bad, while the Iowa State offense is good-but-not-great at shooting and rebounding. 

As far as Terrence Shannon goes, Iowa State has to play team defense rather than focus on him. Their defense is #1 not from shutting down key players but by playing a team-oriented, confusing defensive style that throws teams off their game. Shannon's job is to ignore that and do what he's been doing.

Vegas Line:

Iowa St. by   1 1/2

Power rating: spread

Iowa St. by   2.3

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Iowa State:   56.3%
Illinois.:    43.7%

2-seeds beat 3-seeds about 62% of the time, so by that measure this is an extra-close game. Also the #1 vs. #1 matchup is a signal of how close it can be. The line also reflects this.

Bottom line: It stands to reason the Cyclones have the edge on offense, and the other side is a draw. You can pick Illinois too, citing Shannon's play, but as a team Illinois is probably satisfied with their Sweet Sixteen appearance, their first in 20 years. Iowa State wants more.

Final prediction: Iowa State 77, Illinois 75

More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.

 

2024 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) North Carolina vs. (4) Alabama

All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule

North Carolina Tar Heels
Seed: 1
Record: 29-7
Conference: ACC

vs.

Alabama Crimson Tide
Seed: 4
Record: 23-11
Conference: SEC

Date: Thursday, March 28
Time: 9:39pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Los Angeles, CA  
Channel: CBS

 

Los Angeles is definitely a neutral court for these teams.

     North Carolina                     Alabama

Power Ratings

Strength:          #8              Strength:          #10
   Median:   #9                       Median:   #11
   Markov:   #4                       Markov:   #23
Pomeroy:           #9              Pomeroy:           #14
   Offense:  #16                      Offense:  #4
   Defense:  #6                       Defense:  #101
BPI:               #9              BPI:               #12
LRMC:              #7              LRMC:              #18

Other Measures:

Tempo (Offense):   #35             Tempo (Offense):   #3
Consistency:       #103            Consistency:       #359
2nd half season:   #7              2nd half season:   #18
Last 6:            #10             Last 6:            #76

For a 1-seed and a 4-seed the teams are pretty damn even in metrics. They're within 2 spots in Strength, 5 spots in Pomeroy, and 3 spots in BPI. LRMC has UNC 11 rungs better, which makes sense as our Markov Chain model ranks the Tar Heels #4 and the Tide just #23. The only glaring stat, though, is Alabama's defensive efficiency rating of #101, something that is bound to catch up with them eventually. Some teams have started the tournament with a triple-digit defensive rank and gone to the Final Four, but their ranking improved dramatically over that time. Alabama's started at #112 and has indeed improved, but not that much.

The game should be fast and furious, with both teams taking shots early in the clock. Game to game North Carolina doesn't vary all that much, while Alabama is up and down game to game, the 4th least consistent team in the nation. Their steep decline over the last 6 games isn't due to that, though—it's due more to injuries the team had late in the season. For the tournament, Alabama has been strictly average—probably the two most consistent performances they've had, right at the mean/median level. A their best they can beat anyone, but it's been a while since we've seen their best. 

 

Season overview: North Carolina

• Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (2)Tennessee+8, @(6)Clemson+10, @(11)N.C. State+13, (4)Duke+9, @(10)Virginia+10, (11)N.C. State+9, @(4)Duke+5, =(16)Wagner+28, =(9)Michigan St.+16
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (6): (2)Tennessee+8, @(6)Clemson+10, @(11)N.C. State+13, (4)Duke+9, (11)N.C. State+9, @(4)Duke+5
• Losses to tournament teams (4): =(1)Connecticut-11, =(3)Kentucky-4, (6)Clemson-4, =(11)N.C. State-8
• Other losses (3): =Villanova-OT, @Georgia Tech-1, @Syracuse-7

Overview: The best way to look at North Carolina this year is to look at their losses. The first three, to Villanova, 83-81 in overtime, in the Bahamas; to 1-seed UConn (87-76) in New York and to 3-seed Kentucky (87-83) in Atlanta, are not bad performances at all. The next three: at Georgia Tech 74-73; 6-seed Clemson 80-76; and at Syracuse 86-79, are a level down but not awful. The last one: NC State 84-76 in Washington DC. That rates as their worst loss. None of them are that terrible. Most would say the Georgia Tech loss was their worst but it was by a point on the road, that can happen to any team. According to my numbers, UNC has the best "worst game" of any team except Duke.

Now let's talk about their wins: 100-92 over 2-seed Tennessee is by far their best, and in conference they beat Duke a couple times.Their losses are more impressive than their wins! Kind of a weak résumé for a 1-seed, but the choices were slim and Tennessee was one of the "finalists" and the Tar Heels won the head-to-head. They have an impressive six wins over the Sweet Sixteen.

North Carolina plays its usual up-tempo basketball, scoring led by RJ Davis at 21.4 points, and Armando Bacot with 10.2 rebounds per game. The duo are all that's left of the 2022 Final Four team. Davis had 22 and Bacot 20 against Wagner, and the duo had 20 and 18 vs. Michigan State. 

              **************************************************************

Season overview: Alabama

• Wins vs. tournament teams (10): (14)Morehead St.+32, =(11)Oregon+8, (6)South Carolina+27, @(8)Mississippi St.+8, (4)Auburn+4, (8)Mississippi St.+32, (9)Texas A&M+25, (7)Florida+OT, =(13)Charleston+13, =(12)Grand Canyon+11
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
• Losses to tournament teams (10): (6)Clemson-8, =(1)Purdue-6, @(3)Creighton-3, @(2)Arizona-13, @(2)Tennessee-20, @(4)Auburn-18, @(3)Kentucky-22, (2)Tennessee-7, @(7)Florida-18, =(7)Florida-14
• Other losses (1): =Ohio St.-11

Overview: For all the games they won the Tide didn't beat a team higher than a 4-seed. They lost to 1-seed Purdue, 2-seed Arizona, 2-seed Tennessee (twice), 3-seed Kentucky, 3-seed Creighton, 6-seed Clemson, and 7-seed Florida (twice). No wonder their SOS is #4 in the nation. If they'd won just a few of those they would have a more proper seed for their level of play. Which begs the question, can Alabama win the big game? For right now though, they have to win the small game! It's telling that none of the teams they beat reached the Sweet Sixteen.

The peaks and valleys of the season can be seen above, and the decline at the end is precipitous. #5 scorer Latrell Wrightsell (9.0ppg) was out from game 26 (overtime Florida win at home), through the Tennessee home loss (game 29). #4 scorer Rylan Griffen (11.0) missed the Arkansas home win. Both played 20 minutes in the 102-88 loss to Florida in the final game.

Mark Sears leads the team with a 21.1 per game average. He was recently named a Wooden Award finalist. Sears had 30 points in the win over Charleston in the first round and 26 against Grand Canyon in the Round of 32.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: North Carolina is a pretty short team for Major conference team, just #163 in average height. Alabama is statistically the 35th tallest team but that's all due to their interior duo at 6-10 and 6-11. Their guards are all low 6-feet, and the team has a surprising amount of shots blocked (11th most in the nation). They also give up a lot of steals.

Other than those drawbacks, Alabama's offense is rock solid, shooting both the 2- and the 3-pointer very well and rebounding well. UNC defends well and also rebounds very well (#6 in the nation when on defense). They don't steal the ball very often, good news for the Tide, but they're decent shot blockers.

North Carolina on offense is good everywhere and very good in a few areas. Good at shooting the ball, good at rebounding, and very good at avoiding turnovers and shooting free throws. Meanwhile Alabama can match them in defending shots but is poor at rebounding on defense and fouls a lot. North Carolina probably wins this game at the line even though the Tide are better free throw shooters, just because UNC will be at the line a lot more.

Vegas Line:

UNC by   4 1/2

Power rating: spread

UNC by   0.8

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

UNC:     52.8% 
Alabama: 47.2% 

Though our average margin is North Carolina by around a point, due to Alabama's low Consistency there are a lot more games than normal where the Tide win or lose by 10 points or more. 1-seeds beat 4-seeds over 70% of the time so our odds to win speak to Alabama's quality as a 4-seed. Meanwhile Vegas gives UNC all the benefit of the doubt. 

Bottom line: Alabama is inconsistent but it's been a while since that's manifested on the upside; lately they've been consistently average (tournament) or below average (before that). Injuries were a factor but unless they play one of their better games North Carolina is going to motivate themselves into the Elite Eight. And the free throws will add up.

Final prediction: North Carolina 96, Alabama 88

More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.

 

2024 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) UConn vs. (5) San Diego State

All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule

UConn Huskies
Seed: 1
Record: 33-3
Conference: Big East

vs.

San Diego State Aztecs
Seed: 5
Record: 26-10
Conference: Mountain West

Date: Thursday, March 28
Time: 7:39pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Boston, MA  
Channel: TBS/truTV

 

As far as I'm concerned UConn still has to prove they are not Villanova of 2017. To do so they must win a rematch of last year's title game.

     UConn                              San Diego State

Power Ratings

Strength:          #2              Strength:          #24
   Median:   #1                       Median:   #25
   Markov:   #1                       Markov:   #22
Pomeroy:           #1              Pomeroy:           #17
   Offense:  #2                       Offense:  #53
   Defense:  #8                       Defense:  #9 
BPI:               #2              BPI:               #27
LRMC:              #1              LRMC:              #21

Other Measures:

Tempo (Offense):   #293            Tempo (Offense):   #197
Consistency:       #288            Consistency:       #125
2nd half season:   #1              2nd half season:   #20
Last 6:            #1              Last 6:            #25

The idea that a UConn repeat is inevitable has grown to ridiculous proportions, with announcers wondering if anyone will be within 10 points of them. Just because they did that last year—with a very different team—and have had double-digit wins the first two games does not equal invincibility. I've railed against the idea that they are equivalent to Florida 2007—a team that returned five starters—and compared them to Villanova 2017, who lost in the Round of 32. UConn did not lose in the Round of 32, but losing in the Sweet Sixteen is comparable.

That said, so far they look pretty invincible, hitting #1 in Pomeroy, #2 in Strength and BPI, with the #2 offense and top ten defense. San Diego State's only comparable stat is their own top ten defense, but their offense is outside the top 50. It's no secret they'll be a big underdog in this game.

 

Season overview: UConn

• Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(7)Texas+10, =(1)North Carolina+11, @(5)Gonzaga+13, (3)Creighton+14, (2)Marquette+28, @(2)Marquette+7, =(2)Marquette+16, =(16)Stetson+39, =(9)Northwestern+17
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (6): =(1)North Carolina+11, @(5)Gonzaga+13, (3)Creighton+14, (2)Marquette+28, @(2)Marquette+7, =(2)Marquette+16
• Losses to tournament teams (2): @(4)Kansas-4, @(3)Creighton-19
• Other losses (1): @Seton Hall-15

Overview: Just like we noted with Marquette, the Big East teams are going to show very few tournament wins because all the Big East teams got left out. It's basically the Big East Big Three and whoever you played in non-conference, so a 1-seed like UConn has just seven big wins. One of those was 1-seed North Carolina though, and 5-seed Gonzaga is always impressive. They lost to 4-seed Kansas, and even to Seton Hall (one of the bracket-busted Big East teams). Note that of their 7 original tourney wins, six now count as wins over the Sweet Sixteen.

UConn is looking to repeat as champs and everyone is falling over themselves comparing them to 2007 Florida, but as I've said, the danger is them resembling 2017 Villanova. The 2017 Wildcats, trying to repeat their 2016 championship, entered the 2nd round 32-3 and lost to 8-seed Wisconsin. Will UConn fall in the 2nd round to a middle-seeded Big Ten team as well? The answer was no, but several other defending national champs have fallen at the Sweet Sixteen mark.

The Huskies are led by Tristen Newton's 15.2 ppg and four others average in double figures. Donovan Clingan scored 20 points in UConn's 91-52 first round win over Stetson. The Huskies didn't slow down at all against Northwestern, winning easily 73-58 behind Newton's 20 points.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: San Diego State

• Wins vs. tournament teams (10): (15)Long Beach St.+12, =(5)Saint Mary's+25, @(5)Gonzaga+10, (10)Nevada+12, (8)Utah St.+14, (10)Colorado St.+16, (11)New Mexico+11, =(8)Utah St.+16, =(12)UAB+4, =(13)Yale+18
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): @(5)Gonzaga+10
• Losses to tournament teams (9): @(6)BYU-9, @(12)Grand Canyon-6, @(11)New Mexico-18, @(10)Boise St.-1, @(10)Colorado St.-8, @(10)Nevada-OT, @(8)Utah St.-5, (10)Boise St.-OT, =(11)New Mexico-7
• Other losses (1): @UNLV-4

Overview: San Diego State didn't quite have the great season they did last year when they were 27-6 entering the tournament, but they got the same 5-seed because, well, that's how it works with name recognition. Also, they have wins over 8 tournament teams including 5-seeds Gonzaga and St. Mary's, that helped. The losses added up this year in the Mountain West, however, though it was a 6-bid league.

San Diego State went to the finals last year, and this year's team sort of reminds me of Butler the year after their 2nd-place finish. The Bulldogs weren't nearly as good but made it back to the finals somehow, losing again. Is that the Aztec's fate/destiny? Though several starters return, this year's leading scorer is 5th-year senior Jaedon LeDee, a backup last year. He averages 21.1 points per game and ads a team-leading 8.4 rebounds; last year he averaged 7.9 and 5.3. Against UAB he had 32 points, and he had 26 as the Aztecs crushed Yale 85-57.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Last year UConn made the finals as a 4-seed, playing against 5-seed San Diego State. The Huskies quickly got a double-digit lead and held off any Aztec attempt to narrow the gap. They won 76-59.

Will this year's matchup be any different—especially considering they are playing in Boston? Talking heads are calling it an easy win for UConn, and it's hard not to agree. Let's look at the stats, which are a good compare because the teams played a very similar SOS. 

San Diego State's biggest problems—as usual—are on offense, where UConn's D outclasses them. The Aztecs don't shoot the 3 well and UConn is #4 in 2-point defense. That means SDSU will have to outrebound the Huskies and that's pretty much a draw. 

When UConn has the ball the Aztecs can match them pretty well statistically, but UConn has a rebounding edge and shoots very well underneath (#4 on 2's). Both teams do everything well here. It's top ten basketball on this side of the court, and SDSU can hold their own.

UConn's height could be a problem for San Diego State. Tristan Newton is 7 inches taller at point guard than Darrion Trammell, and 7-2 center Donovan Clingan has 5 inches on Jaedon LeDee. How the Aztecs shuffle their lineup or counter the advantage will be key.

Basically, for SDSU to have a chance, Jaedon LeDee has to be the man. He has to turn the height disadvantage into an advantage underneath, and play the game of his life on both sides of the court. He has to be not only the best player on the court, but be head and shoulders above that everyone else that evening.

Vegas Line:

UConn by   10 1/2

Power rating: spread

UConn by   11.9

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

UConn:     78.8% 
SDSU:      21.2% 

We have to give UConn home court for playing less than 100 miles from home compared to 3,000 miles and three time zones for San Diego State. It looks like Vegas agrees, as their line is higher than our margin would be (9.0 points0 without home court (the odds to win would be 74%). 1-seeds beat 5-seeds about 81% of the time, so the odds with HCA fit pretty well.

Bottom line: UConn is due for a bad game. It has to happen at some point. And with everyone saying how great they are, overconfidence might start to creep in. But even with a bad UConn game the Atecs can't win in Boston without LeDee stepping up big time.

Final prediction: San Diego State 86, UConn 84  2OT

More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.

 

2024 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (2) Arizona vs. (6) Clemson

All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule

Arizona Wildcats
Seed: 2
Record: 27-8
Conference: Pac-12

vs.

Clemson Tigers
Seed: 6
Record: 23-11
Conference: ACC

Date: Thurday, March 28
Time: 7:09pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Los Angeles, CA  
Channel: CBS

 

Arizona is very unpredictable, and lately Clemson is outdoing them in that arena.

     Arizona                            Clemson

Power Ratings

Strength:          #4              Strength:          #23
   Median:   #2                       Median:   #18
   Markov:   #5                       Markov:   #16
Pomeroy:           #5              Pomeroy:           #23
   Offense:  #9                       Offense:  #24
   Defense:  #10                      Defense:  #38
BPI:               #4              BPI:               #23
LRMC:              #3              LRMC:              #35

Other Measures:

Tempo (Offense):   #8              Tempo (Offense):   #169
Consistency:       #360            Consistency:       #299
2nd half season:   #8              2nd half season:   #24
Last 6:            #19             Last 6:            #41

6-seed Clemson is one of the lowest seeds left in this very "chalky" Sweet Sixteen, and they're a reasonable 6-seed at #23 in Strength, Pomeroy, and BPI, but that's after two wins. Arizona is a very strong 2-seed so they're in the top 5 in all the power ratings, including #2 in Median performance, and more importantly are top ten on both offense and defense, giving the Tigers no advantage on either side of the court despite having good metrics themselves.

Arizona plays a very fast offensive tempo while Clemson is almost exactly average. Neither team is consistent, especially Arizona who is the 3rd least consistent team in the country. Neither team has played well over the last 6 games, but that's mostly a reflection of their volatility. Both teams have a couple of their worst performances in the last 6 games sample; the Wildcats have recovered to play at about their average since then, while Clemson followed their worst game with their best 2-game stretch of the season. 

 

Season overview: Arizona

• Wins vs. tournament teams (11): @(4)Duke+5, =(9)Michigan St.+6, (14)Colgate+27, (5)Wisconsin+25, (4)Alabama+13, (10)Colorado+47, @(11)Oregon+9, @(10)Colorado+20, (11)Oregon+20, =(15)Long Beach St.+20, =(7)Dayton+10
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): @(4)Duke+5, (4)Alabama+13
• Losses to tournament teams (5): @(1)Purdue-8, =(8)Florida Atlantic-OT, @(7)Washington St.-3, (7)Washington St.-3, =(11)Oregon-8
• Other losses (3): @Stanford-18, @Oregon St.-3, @USC-13

Overview: Arizona started out like gangbusters, beating Duke and Michigan State, then adding Wisconsin and Alabama to their skins list while playing well in lossses to 1-seed Purdue and last year's Final Four team Florida Atlantic. Just 11 games in and the Wildcats had played more good teams than most do in a whole season! But then the erratic play started, as they lost to Stanford 100-81. Of course they followed that by beating Colorado and Utah by a combined 46 points. When they won it was fantastic, but the surprise losses—to Oregon State, twice to Washington State—added up despite continued huge margins when they won. Their last three games tells the whole story: a 78-65 loss to USC, then a 70-49 win over USC, and a 67-59 loss to Oregon.

Arizona plays fast on offense and shoots the three well but not excessively; they have four players in double figures led by UNC transfer Caleb Love's 18.1ppg. Arizona's first round game saw the "good" version of the team, maybe not great, but they avoided the "dud" game in beating Long Beach State; Kylan Boswell led with 20 points with all five starters in double figures. Love then led with 19 against Dayton.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Clemson

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(12)UAB+1, (10)Boise St.+17, @(4)Alabama+8, (6)South Carolina+5, =(9)TCU+8, @(1)North Carolina+4, =(11)New Mexico+21, =(3)Baylor+8
  
• Losses to tournament teams (4): (1)North Carolina-10, @(4)Duke-1, (10)Virginia-1, (11)N.C. State-1
• Other losses (7): @Memphis-2, @Miami FL-13, @Virginia Tech-15, Georgia Tech-OT, @Notre Dame-7, @Wake Forest-5, =Boston College-21

Overview: Clemson started 9-0 with wins over 12-seed UAB, 10-seed Boise State, 4-seed Alabama, almost-seeded Pitt, 6-seed South Carolina, and 9-seed TCU. In nine games! But they lost 7 of their next 12 games and their only other tourney-team win was when they beat 1-seed North Carolina 80-76 in Chapel Hill. In fact, that was their only win over a top 70 Pomeroy team other than Pitt in the calendar year 2024. They basically beat up on the bad ACC teams and lost to the good ones. Good thing they had that pre-conference schedule!

The Tigers are led on offense by center PJ Hall who scores 18.8 points per game and is 2nd on the team with 6.7 rebounds. It was Chase Hunter who spearheaded the win over New Mexico with his 21 points; he did the same with 20 in the upset win over Baylor.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Clemson has played its very best back-to-back games of the season. Meanwhile Arizona is playing roughly at their average. If this trend continues Clemson wins by 10 points.

But neither team is one to continued trends. Upside surprises and downside shocks are common for both, but especially Arizona so it's hard to see them playing so consistently for much longer. Clemson hasn't had three great games in a row all season; the closest they came was in February when they beat North Carolina on the road 80-76, then won at Syracuse 77-69, and beat Miami at home 77-60. I'd expect Clemson's next effort to be of a lower quality, while Arizona's next step should be much better or much worse. How much worse Clemson does, and what Arizona does, will determine the winner.

The matchup can tell us what to expect. Clemson shoots about as well as Arizona defends, on both 2s and 3s, but they'll need to hit their shots as they won't get a lot of the rebounds. They're also vulnerable to steals and Arizona is good at takeaways.

The Wildcats don't have to worry much about turnovers and should compete well for rebounds on offense. Clemson's D is solid against 2-pointers but weak against the 3 which is where Arizona excels—though they usually shoot the 2.

Overall the edge on both sides goes to Arizona, which is what you'd get from the efficiency stats. Can Clemson's fantastic (79%) free throw shooting close the gap? Maybe, but Arizona rarely fouls and the Tigers don't get to the line very often, a bad combination. Still, if the game is close the Tigers have a solid edge from the line.

The height matchups will be very interesting. Clemson has very tall forwards (6-8, 6-10) against shorter Wildcat forwards (6-6, 6-7), while 6-10 Tiger center PJ Hall will be up against a couple of 7-footers including Oumar Ballo who averages 10 rebounds per game.

Vegas Line:

Arizona by   7 1/2

Power rating: spread

Arizona by   8.9

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Arizona:    69.6% 
Clemson:    30.4% 

Arizona is a moderate favorite here as expected. 2-seeds do very well against 6-seeds, winning about 80% of the time; Arizona's lower odds shows how erratic they (and Clemson) are, since Arizona is a very good 2-seed.

Bottom line: Clemson should come back down to earth. If they don't, they'll reach the Elite Eight, but I think they will cool off a bit. Arizona has to avoid having a dud game themselves, however.

Final prediction: Arizona 81, Clemson 73

More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.

 

2024 NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (5) San Diego State vs. (13) Yale

All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule

San Diego State Aztecs
Seed: 5
Record: 25-10
Conference: Mountain West

vs.

Yale Bulldogs
Seed: 13
Record: 23-9
Conference: Ivy League

Date: Sunday, March 24
Time: 9:40pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Spokane, WA  
Channel: TBS

 

This is the 2nd year in a row where the Ivy League winner has made a first-round upset. Last year Princeton made the Sweet Sixteen.

     San Diego St.                      Yale

Power Ratings

Strength:          #26             Strength:          #91
   Median:   #48                      Median:   #89
   Markov:   #23                      Markov:   #106
Pomeroy:           #20             Pomeroy:           #79
   Offense:  #62                      Offense:  #87
   Defense:  #10                      Defense:  #84
BPI:               #34             BPI:               #66
LRMC:              #21             LRMC:              #87

Other Measures:

SOS:               #53             SOS:               #161   
Tempo (Offense):   #194            Tempo (Offense):   #334
Consistency:       #100            Consistency:       #9
Str + Reliability: #18             Str + Reliability: #54
Str + Potential:   #42             Str + Potential:   #137

2nd half season:   #30             2nd half season:   #76
Last 6:            #46             Last 6:            #71
Injury Mod Rank:   #27             Injury Mod Rank:   #91
Tourney 4-year:    #7  (of 68)     Tourney 4-year:    #52

What jumps out right away about San Diego State is the drop from their #26 Strength to #48 Median rankings. Strength is a mean average of game performance, while Median is (naturally) a median average. Apparently SDSU has a lot of upside games that get trimmed off by the Median measure. Otherwise most of the power ratings have the Aztecs in the 20s but their offense is only #62, which means that Yale is pretty close in that metric. On defense it's not comparable with SDSU in the top ten.

Unlike Yale's last opponent (Auburn) who had the #300 consistency, San Diego State is more reliable, which is bad for the very-consistent Yale team in their quest for another upset. Yale's slow tempo will still be a positive in that regard.

 

Season overview: San Diego State

• Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (15)Long Beach St.+12, =(5)Saint Mary's+25, @(5)Gonzaga+10, (10)Nevada+12, (8)Utah St.+14, (10)Colorado St.+16, (11)New Mexico+11, =(8)Utah St.+16, =(12)UAB+4
  
• Losses to tournament teams (9): @(6)BYU-9, @(12)Grand Canyon-6, @(11)New Mexico-18, @(10)Boise St.-1, @(10)Colorado St.-8, @(10)Nevada-OT, @(8)Utah St.-5, (10)Boise St.-OT, =(11)New Mexico-7
• Other losses (1): @UNLV-4

Overview: San Diego State didn't quite have the great season they did last year when they were 27-6 entering the tournament, but they got the same 5-seed because, well, that's how it works with name recognition. Also, they have wins over 8 tournament teams including 5-seeds Gonzaga and St. Mary's, that helped. The losses added up this year in the Mountain West, however, though it was a 6-bid league.

San Diego State went to the finals last year, and this year's team sort of reminds me of Butler the year after their 2nd-place finish. The Bulldogs weren't nearly as good but made it back to the finals somehow, losing again. Is that the Aztec's fate/destiny? Though several starters return, this year's leading scorer is 5th-year senior Jaedon LeDee, a backup last year. He averages 21.1 points per game and ads a team-leading 8.4 rebounds; last year he averaged 7.9 and 5.3. Against UAB he had 32 points.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Yale

• Wins vs. tournament teams (3): =(14)Colgate+18, @(16)Howard+OT, =(4)Auburn+2
  
• Losses to tournament teams (3): @(5)Gonzaga-15, @(13)Vermont-1, @(4)Kansas-15
• Other losses (6): =Weber St.-OT, @Rhode Island-4, Fairfield-4, @Princeton-11, @Cornell-3, Brown-OT

Overview: Yale got off to a rocky start, something that happens to a lot of small-conference teams as they schedule tough opponents like 4-seed Kansas, and 5-seed Gonzaga. But to be fair the Bulldogs lots to a lot of teams they should have beaten before the Ivy League season. In conference play they did about as well as could be expected, even beating Princeton once, though the home loss to Brown was uncalled for.

Yale is led by 7-0 Danny Wolf's 14.3 points and 9.8 rebounds per game; he's one of 5 starters in double figures. Against Auburn it was John Poulakidas who led with 28 points, making 6 of 9 threes.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: San Diego State wasn't too impressive against UAB. Meanwhile Yale was the best they've been this season against Auburn. That alone makes the odds of an upset seem a lot higher.

But Yale probably can't take all the credit for that game; a lot was due to Auburn playing poorly, as well as getting a starter ejected early. Yale is very consistent and their odds of coming up with another outlier game are slim. But on the other hand, San Diego State's recent play is pretty uninspiring.

The main hurdle for Yale to overcome is how to function against the Aztec defense. Granted, they are coming off a game against the #5 defensive team, so maybe that shouldn't be a question? John Poulakidas was their answer: he made 6 of 9 three pointers. Can he hope to repeat that performance? Yale can't count on it happening, that's for sure.

Normally 7-0 center Danny Wolf is their go-to guy, but he was bottled up by Auburn's D; the Aztecs are nowhere near as good as Auburn in defending the 2-point shot so Wolf should have a better game. 

They have to stop Aztec star LeDee as well; they weren't very effective in slowing down Auburn's Johni Broome inside and LeDee is basically just as good. The best weapon Yale has on defense is rebounding, and since SDSU isn't a great shooting team, that's what will help them stay in it. On offense, Yale just has to hope they make their threes again.  

Vegas Line:

SDSU  by   5 1/2

Power rating: spread

SDSU  by   7.4   

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

SDSU:      71.4% 
Yale:      28.6% 

San Diego State is a moderate favorite, as expected. Their 71% odds of winning are lower than the historical odds of a 5 beating a 13-seed, which are above 80%. 

Bottom line: Yale probably won't repeat their upside performance, but San Diego State isn't looking like a team that will blow anyone away. Yale's buzzer-beater three goes in and out.

Final prediction: San Diego State 66, Yale 64

More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.

 

2024 NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Houston vs. (9) Texas A&M

All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule

Houston Cougars
Seed: 1
Record: 31-4
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Texas A&M Aggies
Seed: 9
Record: 21-14
Conference: Big Twelve

Date: Sunday, March 23
Time: 8:40pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Memphis, TN  
Channel: TNT

 

Houston erased some of the memory of their final game with Iowa State, and Texas A&M beat Nebraska pretty easily.

     Houston                            Texas A&M

Power Ratings

Strength:          #1              Strength:          #49
   Median:   #2                       Median:   #33
   Markov:   #2                       Markov:   #30
Pomeroy:           #2              Pomeroy:           #39
   Offense:  #15                      Offense:  #28
   Defense:  #1                       Defense:  #64
BPI:               #1              BPI:               #36
LRMC:              #2              LRMC:              #43

Other Measures:

SOS:               #13             SOS:               #29   
Tempo (Offense):   #321            Tempo (Offense):   #204
Consistency:       #125            Consistency:       #326
Str + Reliability: #1              Str + Reliability: #69
Str + Potential:   #4              Str + Potential:   #37

2nd half season:   #2              2nd half season:   #42
Last 6:            #2              Last 6:            #8
Injury Mod Rank:   #2              Injury Mod Rank:   #48
Tourney 4-year:    #2  (of 68)     Tourney 4-year:    #38

Houston's season-wide figures are pretty astounding; they're #1 in Strength and BPI, and #2 in Pomeroy and LRMC. They're back to being ranked #1 in Defense, and have been top 25 on Offense all year too. Texas A&M's numbers are what you would expect of a 9-seed, a range in the top 50. Their offense is almost top 25, so they should present at least a challenge to Houston's #1 defense, and while their defense isn't great they won't be a walkover when Houston has the ball. But is there real hope of beating the Cougars?

The Cougars do play a slow tempo, which many have noted keeps games closer no matter the chasm in production between two teams. And A&M has a lot of inconsistency on its side. They just need to have that manifest on the upside—and get an upset—rather than on the downside and get blown out.

Season overview: Houston

• Wins vs. tournament teams (13): (16)Stetson+31, =(7)Dayton+14, (9)Texas A&M+4, (6)Texas Tech+23, @(6)BYU+7, @(7)Texas+OT, (7)Texas+21, (2)Iowa St.+8, @(3)Baylor+OT, (4)Kansas+30, =(9)TCU+15, =(6)Texas Tech+23, =(16)Longwood+40
  
• Losses to tournament teams (4): @(2)Iowa St.-4, @(9)TCU-1, @(4)Kansas-13, =(2)Iowa St.-28
• Other losses (0): None

Overview: Now that's what I call a 1-seed résumé: a dozen wins over tournament teams; a handful of losses to tournament teams; and no losses to non-tourney teams. It looks like a national champ's chart—until that last loss to Iowa State, which raised questions on how it might affect them going forward. In the first round against Longwood they went up 10-0 immediately and led 43-16 at the half. No hangover at all.

Houston's defense (#2 shot defense; #3 in blocked shots; #2 in steals) is the key to their success, but their offense is top-level, too; they play a slower, methodical offense which emphasizes crashing the boards for rebounds, which they need because frankly they don't shoot the ball very well (#229 in effective FG%). Three Cougars average in double figures led by LJ Cryer's 15.3. Cryer and Damien Dunn led with 17 each against Longwood.

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Season overview: Texas A&M

• Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(2)Iowa St.+4, (3)Kentucky+OT, (7)Florida+1, (2)Tennessee+16, (8)Mississippi St.+6, =(3)Kentucky+10, =(8)Nebraska+15
  
• Losses to tournament teams (8): =(8)Florida Atlantic-7, @(10)Virginia-12, @(1)Houston-4, @(4)Auburn-11, @(4)Alabama-25, @(2)Tennessee-35, (6)South Carolina-2, =(7)Florida-5
• Other losses (6): Memphis-6, LSU-15, @Arkansas-1, Mississippi-3, @Vanderbilt-1, Arkansas-7

Overview: Texas A&M is all over the place and very streaky, as you can see. They lost to Florida Atlantic early but beat Iowa State; at the time FAU was considered the bigger skin, but that win over the Cyclones paid dividends. They lost to 1-seed Houston a few games later. In SEC play they beat 3-seed Kentucky twice and split with 2-seed Tennessee, beating the Volunteers 85-69 in mid February. Following that win, the Aggies lost five straight in terrible fashion, including a loss at 9-23 Vanderbilt and at home to Arkansas. So of course they switched things up and won five straight, beating Mississippi and Kentucky before falling to Florida in the SEC tournament. If they put another string of games that good together they might make the Final Four.

Wade Taylor and Tyrece Radford combine for 35 points per game for the Aggies. The team averages 47 rebounds per game, which is crucial to their success as we'll find out. Against Nebraska they had 40 rebounds, while Taylor had 25 points while making 7 of 10 threes.

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Game Analysis: Last time when reviewing Texas A&M I wondered how they even won games at all with their poor shooting, and concluded there were three reasons: Wade Taylor, Tyrece Radford, and rebounding. Can these things bring an upset win over Houstons?

Taylor and Radford are key to A&M because they score points, something the rest of the team doesn't do much of. Rebounding is absolutely critical because the team shoots terribly.

Against Houston's defense, here are some stats via Kenpom: A&M's #340 effective field goal% vs. Houston's #2 effective FG defense%; #344 on 3s vs. #9 defense against 3s; #305 on 2s vs. #3 vs. 2s. How are they going to get a shot to go in?

Rebounding will be their saving grace in this game. A&M is #1 in offensive rebounding while Houston is #221 in defensive rebounding. They'll get their 2nd shots, and some 3rds too.

Also they might get to the foul line quite a bit, which helps. And Houston's normal clutch of takeaways is going to be harder to come by as A&M protects the ball pretty well (Houston is #1 in steals). But the Cougars might look like Phi Slamma Jamma with the blocked shots, where they are #2 and the Aggies are the 7th-most blocked team in the country. 

So it looks like the Aggies will get the ball down the court safely for the most part, get their shots off, miss most of them (many of them blocked), and get lots of rebounds and 2nd shots. And then some of those that aren't blocked will go in.

It's at least a hope that their offense will be productive against Houston. And then what about stopping Houston's offense? The Cougars are somewhat similar—somewhat—in that they don't shoot well and they get offensive rebounds. Not to the same degree as A&M, but similar. The A&M defense is fairly mediocre across the board but good enough to defend the Cougars reasonably well.

Any hope of catching Houston in an uncertain and psychologically damaged state following the Iowa State loss is over, as the Cougars played one of their best games of the season in the first round. A&M's biggest hope comes from their previous meeting in December where they played Houston very close, losing just 70-66 after Houston had led by 21 points.

In that game the Aggies shot 43% on 2s (a bit below their 47% average, and similar to what Houston normally allows) and made 9 of 27 threes, a bit above their 29% average and Houston's 30% allow rate. They got 17 offensive rebounds at a 45% rate, a bit above their norm (42%). Houston had only 2 steals (3% rate well below their 16% average), and 10 blocks, a 36% rate well above their 16% average. So the "on paper" plan basically happened. A&M did get to the free throw line quite a bit, 22 times to Houston's 7, also what we would expect on paper. The game was played in Houston but not in Houston's home arena. With semi-home court advantage taken into account, it was essentially a toss-up. The reason? Wade Taylor went off for 34 points (six 3's, all in the 2nd half), almost single-handedly winning the game for the Aggies. He'll need to reproduce those heroics, but I'm sure Houston is making plans to stop him from doing so.

Vegas Line:

Houston by   9 1/2

Power rating: spread

Houston by   12.9

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Houston:     79.9% 
Texas A&M:   20.1% 

The line is a bit lower than I'd expect after Houston's huge first-round win, but the Aggies played very well, too. Houston's 80% chance to win is basically spot-on with the historical odds for a 1-seed facing an 8-seed, but 9-seeds only win 8% of the time, which is probably a fluke but who knows.

Bottom line: Analysis aside, I think Houston is "back" and they will catch A&M on a down day—and not let them make a comeback this time.

Final prediction: Houston 80, Texas A&M 59

More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.