Here we go. The top seed has been just jockeying for position over the last, say, six weeks but down the home stretch it's getting interesting.
3day 7day Seed -1wk
Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds %Chg %Chg 1-seed Proj Seed
1. Houston B12 26-3 100.0 0.0 0.0 97.5 1 1
2. Purdue B10 26-3 100.0 0.0 0.0 96.8 1 1
3. Connecticut BE 26-3 100.0 0.0 0.0 84.2 1 1
4. Tennessee SEC 23-6 100.0 0.0 0.0 57.7 1 2
5. Arizona P12 23-6 100.0 0.0 0.0 33.3 2 1
6. Iowa St. B12 23-6 100.0 0.0 0.0 22.1 2 2
7. North Carolina ACC 23-6 100.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 2 2
8. Kansas B12 21-8 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2 3
Let's say up front that we have championed Arizona as a 1-seed for a long time, well before others put the Wildcats in the top four grouping. But after Tennessee's road upset of Alabama, things have changed and the Volunteers now look like the final 1-seed. Arizona did nothing wrong! They've won 9 of their last 10 games, but in the Pac-12 that would need to be 10 of 10. Winning their conference tournament—which they are heavily expected to do—won't be enough if Tennessee wins the SEC tournament. That's a much bigger "if" though.
Iowa State remains surprisingly strong in the 1-seed chase, too at 22%. If they win the Big Twelve tournament and Tennessee and Arizona falter, they're a great candidate—seemingly moreso than North Carolina, who lags around 6%. Another interesting development is Kansas joining the 2-seeds. We've long been showing them as a 2-seed "right now" but projecting them to falter and fall to a 3-seed—and falter they did, losing twice this week. Yet the Jayhawks now project as the low 2-seed? The answer goes back to Tennessee's surge. With the Vols on the 1-line, Kansas has now beaten three of the four 1-seeds (all but Purdue).
3day 7day Seed -1wk
Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds %Chg %Chg 1-seed Proj Seed
9. Creighton BE 22-8 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3 3
10. Marquette BE 22-7 100.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 3 3
11. Baylor B12 21-8 100.0 0.0 +0.3 0.2 3 4
12. Duke ACC 23-6 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3 4
13. Alabama SEC 20-9 100.0 0.0 0.0 <0.1 4 2
14. Auburn SEC 22-7 100.0 0.0 0.0 <0.1 4 3
15. BYU B12 21-8 100.0 0.0 +2.3 0.3 4 5
16. Illinois B10 22-7 100.0 +0.5 +1.4 <0.1 4 5
17. Kentucky SEC 21-8 100.0 +0.1 +0.3 -- 5 5
18. Clemson ACC 20-9 >99.9 0.0 0.0 -- 5 4
Creighton whipped Marquette and ranks a spot ahead of them on the 3-line but the Golden Eagles have a bigger chance at getting a 1-seed due to still playing UConn again. Neither percentage is very high, likewise for new 3-seeds Baylor and Duke. The Bears beat TCU and Kansas while the Blue Devils topped Louisville and Virginia. BYU also moved up a seed via a huge road win over Kansas, and along with Baylor, finally reached "100%" lock status.
Alabama dropped from the low 2 to the high 4-seed after the loss to Tennessee, a game they were expected to win at home. There's still a lot of movement that will happen due to the conference tournaments, and even from the few remaining games most teams have. Auburn also dropped after losing to Tennessee. The Vols really had a hell of a week!
Two other teams nabbed the "100%" lock status. Illinois beat Wisconsin on the road, while for Kentucky it was mostly the win at Mississippi State. Clemson topped Pitt but then lost to lowly (12-17) Notre Dame, dropping them to a 5-seed and keeping them just shy of "total" lock status.
3day 7day Seed -1wk
Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds %Chg %Chg 1-seed Proj Seed
19. San Diego St. MWC 22-7 >99.9 0.0 +0.1 -- 5 4
20. Gonzaga WCC 24-6 99.7 +14.7 +22.9 -- 5 9
21. Boise St. MWC 21-8 97.4 +8.1 +14.9 -- 6 9
22. TCU B12 19-10 96.6 +1.5 +0.3 -- 6 6
23. Utah St. MWC 24-5 96.4 +1.1 -0.4 -- 6 5
24. Nevada MWC 24-6 96.2 +0.4 +9.2 -- 6 8
25. Washington St. P12 23-7 94.6 +4.1 +4.1 -- 7 7
26. New Mexico MWC 21-8 93.2 -1.1 +1.1 -- 7 6
27. South Carolina SEC 24-5 90.9 +9.4 +14.9 -- 7 9
28. Nebraska B10 21-9 90.7 +7.8 +2.7 -- 7 8
29. Colorado St. MWC 21-9 86.8 +0.7 -7.1 -- 8 6
Now we're in the Mountain West section of the projection. From seeds 5 to 8 we show SIX (6) Mountain West teams. That's a lot. They're almost interchangeable, though other bracketologists always show one team or another (typically New Mexico) being on the bubble, and one (usually San Diego State) far above the others. We have SDSU being nudged down to a 5-seed despite winning their sole game last week; Boise State jumping three seeds after beating Air Force by 31 and New Mexico by 10; Utah State falling from a 5- to a 6-seed (they needed overtime to top Fresno State); Nevada up 2 seeds to a 6 after beating Colorado State on the road; New Mexico down to a 7-seed after the loss at Boise; and Colorado State down to an 8-seed after the home loss to Nevada. The conference tournament is going to be a blast and is completely up for grabs.
The other big news in this region is Gonzaga, who throttled St. Mary's 70-57 on the road and jumped FOUR seeds to the low 5-seed. The Bulldogs are no longer on the bubble. Their win at Kentucky keeps looking better too, as the Wildcats remain in good standing, and two of their six losses are to 1-seeds Purdue and UConn.
3day 7day Seed -1wk
Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds %Chg %Chg 1-seed Proj Seed
30. Texas Tech B12 20-9 83.7 +4.7 -4.2 -- 8 8
31. Mississippi St. SEC 19-10 80.9 +0.7 -4.5 -- 8 9
32. Wisconsin B10 18-11 80.6 -9.0 -13.0 -- 8 6
33. Saint Mary's WCC 24-7 80.1 -10.2 -9.5 -- 9 7
34. Florida SEC 20-9 79.3 -7.8 -9.1 -- 9 7
35. Texas B12 19-10 79.0 +4.6 +22.3 -- 9 11p
36. Dayton A10 22-6 78.8 -10.4 -7.0 -- 9 8
37. Wake Forest ACC 18-11 73.2 -12.0 -18.7 -- 10 7
38. Oklahoma B12 19-10 68.9 -1.8 -5.6 -- 10 10
39. Northwestern B10 20-9 68.9 -3.1 +4.4 -- 10 10
40. Indiana St. MVC 26-5 59.6 -0.6 -1.1 -- 10 11
41. Florida Atlantic Amer 22-7 59.4 +1.2 -1.1 -- 11 11
42. Colorado P12 20-9 59.4 -1.2 -1.5 -- 11 10
43. Drake MVC 25-6 57.7 +5.2 +5.6 -- 11 12p
And as Gonzaga rises, so does St. Mary's fall, down two seeds to the top 9-seed position. Florida also tumbles two seeds after losing at South Carolina, with whom they swapped projected seeds (7 and 9). But let's talk about Wisconsin again. They're still a 5-seed on the Bracket Project, and I just don't get it. They've lost 7 of their last 9, beating only Ohio State at their worst and Maryland, both at home. They got upset at home by Illinois on Saturday after losing at Indiana earlier in the week. We show them an 8-seed, which still seems generous, but some people are in just love with the Badgers. We get it! They beat Marquette!
Wake Forest is another team in this region falling like a stone. Two weeks ago they beat Pitt and Duke to basically seal the deal on a bid. Then last week they fell to Notre Dame and Virginia Tech. Now they're down to a 10-seed, lower than where they started. But like the other major conference teams on the 10-line (Oklahoma, Northwestern) they can probably survive a first round conference tournament loss as long as they don't do something crazy in their remaining regular season games, like lose at home to Georgia Tech Tuesday evening.
But the mid-major teams in this area have to sweat it. Dayton can probably survive a first-round loss as long as they win their two remaining games, but Indiana State and Florida Atlantic will need to win at least one game, if not reach their final, to get an at-large bid. The Sycamores are done with the regular season and start play in their tournament on Friday along with Drake who might need to reach the finals to secure an at-large bid. In truth, both might need to win the tournament, there are no guarantees for non-Major conference teams.
3day 7day Seed -1wk
Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds %Chg %Chg 1-seed Proj Seed
44. Virginia ACC 21-9 57.5 -3.6 +0.1 -- 11p 11p
45. Pittsburgh ACC 19-10 54.8 +5.7 -0.8 -- 11p 12p
46. Michigan St. B10 17-12 54.0 -6.3 -7.4 -- 12p 10
47. Villanova BE 17-12 53.7 +15.0 +19.8 -- 12p
48. Utah P12 18-11 51.9 +0.9 +6.8 --
49. Seton Hall BE 18-11 49.5 -4.6 -8.9 -- 11
50. St. John's BE 17-12 44.1 -0.5 +15.4 --
51. Princeton Ivy 23-3 42.5 +4.3 +3.0 -- 12 12
52. Ohio St. B10 18-12 41.9 +4.4 +18.8 --
53. James Madison SB 28-3 39.5 -1.4 -0.5 -- 12 12
54. Iowa B10 18-12 35.4 +11.7 +14.0 --
55. Syracuse ACC 20-10 32.3 +1.8 +14.3 --
56. Providence BE 18-11 31.2 -11.4 -18.7 --
57. McNeese St. Slnd 26-3 31.2 -0.1 -2.4 -- 12 12
58. Grand Canyon WAC 26-4 28.5 +2.5 +3.7 -- 13 13
59. Cincinnati B12 17-12 27.5 +1.5 +1.8 --
60. Oregon P12 19-10 24.7 -4.0 -3.3 --
The Last Four In consists of two ACC teams (Virginia, Pittsburgh) and two 17-12 teams, Michigan State and Villanova. The Spartans are back in trouble again and time is running out for them to assert themselves as the great team they could be. You can't blame them for losing to Purdue but they shouldn't be 17-12. They have Northwestern (home) and Indiana (road) left and will be favored in both, but it's time to prove it. The Wildcats approached from the opposite side. Written off by most at 11-10, we still showed 38% odds at the time and they recently delivered by beating Providence on the road, sending their odds up around 20% and dumping the Friars a similar amount.
Utah hangs on as the First Team Out, with home wins over Stanford and Califoria not helping them much (but avoiding a big hurt). Seton Hall and St. John's are still more Big East teams on the bubble, with the Pirates falling to Creighton and UConn as most bubble teams would, while the Red Storm continued their mini-surge by winning at Butler.
And speaking of mini-surges, what about Ohio State? The Buckeyes added wins over 7-seed Nebraska and Michigan, making it a 4-1 run under interim coach Jake Diebler. Iowa, too, is on a 4-1 run after beating Penn State and 10-seed Northwestern (road). And Syracuse made it four in a row with wins over Virginia Tech and Louisville.
The four mid-Majors here are looking more and more "close but no cigar" if they fall in their conference tournaments. McNeese State has two games left, Princeton and Grand Canyon have one, while James Madison finished the regular schedule at 28-3. In order to breach the waterline they'll have to make it to their tournament finals—which if they lose, probably drops them out. But any of them will still have a shot, based on whatever the Selection Committee is thinking at the time. But none will be expected to make it without a conference tourney crown.
3day 7day Seed -1wk
Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds %Chg %Chg 1-seed Proj Seed
61. Virginia Tech ACC 16-13 20.8 +10.4 +0.3 --
62. Mississippi SEC 20-9 20.1 -0.2 -4.2 --
63. Memphis Amer 22-8 18.4 -0.4 +5.8 --
64. Butler BE 17-13 13.5 -0.1 -13.7 --
65. Appalachian St. SB 26-5 11.9 +4.0 +5.1 --
66. Texas A&M SEC 16-13 11.8 +6.5 -2.1 --
67. Samford SC 26-5 10.3 -1.5 -20.8 -- 13 13
68. Richmond A10 22-7 10.2 -0.5 +2.3 --
69. Minnesota B10 18-11 9.4 +1.9 +1.9 --
70. Kansas St. B12 17-12 8.0 -3.6 -2.9 --
71. UNLV MWC 18-10 4.8 -0.9 +0.1 --
72. Bradley MVC 21-10 4.5 -4.6 -2.3 --
73. N.C. State ACC 17-12 1.6 -3.4 -8.7 --
74. UC Irvine BW 22-8 1.2 +0.7 +0.9 -- 13 13
75. UCF B12 15-13 0.6 -1.3 -0.5 --
76. SMU Amer 19-10 0.3 -22.1 -21.0 --
77. South Florida Amer 22-5 0.1 0.0 -0.1 --
And this is every last team that has a realistic chance. Virginia Tech took a big hit losing at Syracuse, but their upset of Wake Forest brought them back up to around 20% where they started. Butler took a hit and stayed down after losing at home to St. John's. Winning at DePaul didn't really help.
Samford's chances for an at-large were cut by 2/3 with the loss to Wofford. The Bulldogs are very solid favorites to win the Southern Conference tournament however.
SMU took the biggest hit of anyone, dropping from 22.4% odds just last Thursday to 0.3% odds today due to a home loss to 11-19 UTSA. Just two weeks ago the Mustangs were 19-7 and at 40.6% on the Dance Chance. They lost their "opportunity" games to Florida Atlantic and South Florida which cut their odds in half, and now they need to win the American Athletic Conference tournament to get in the Big Dance.
Speaking of South Florida, the Bulls are that team that confounds formulas (as well as Bracketologists). No one knows what the Committee will do with a team that has dominated it's solid conference (they are 15-1 with two games remaining) but does not have impressive power ratings (#94 Strength, #89 Pomeroy) or other metrics (#79 NET, #152 SOS per ESPN). The Dance Chance says they win the American tournament or they are out, even if they reach the finals and lose. We'll see what the Committee thinks if that happens. There's always "that one team"!