There were two days last week with no games but enough happened to give us a new projected 1-seed and it is...Houston! Surprise, it wasn't another SEC team, no matter how much Auburn and Tennessee seem to have 1-seeds locked up before it turns to 2025. Along with Duke they played just 1 game between all four of them so how did the Cougars move onto the 1-line? Well it's more like Gonzaga fell to the 2-line, as the Bulldogs lost to UCLA 65-62 in Inglewood (that's a home game for UCLA really), putting the Zags at 9-4. That ends Gonzaga's chance for a 1-seed pretty much, as they didn't do enough in the pre-conference season to earn one even if they run the table in the WCC; our odds for the Zags drop to 1/2 of 1%. But their odds of getting a high seed are really good, since they should go nearly undefeated from here and have no bad losses.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 1. Auburn SEC 11-1 28-3 30-1 >99.9 0.0 93.8 +3.1 1 1 2. Tennessee SEC 12-0 27-4 30-1 99.3 +0.4 68.3 -1.3 1 1 3. Duke ACC 10-2 27-4 29-2 98.9 +1.2 49.5 +7.6 1 1 4. Houston B12 8-3 25-6 28-3 94.8 +0.9 16.6 -1.4 1 2 5. Florida SEC 13-0 25-6 26-5 93.8 +3.0 28.6 +5.9 2 2 6. Alabama SEC 11-2 22-9 25-6 92.3 +1.4 23.3 -1.9 2 2 7. Gonzaga WCC 9-4 26-5 27-4 92.1 -2.6 0.5 -5.3 2 1 8. Kentucky SEC 10-2 22-9 25-6 92.0 -0.1 24.0 -3.6 2 2
Three SEC teams could have made a run at our last 1-seed but Kentucky didn't play, Alabama beat South Dakota State, and Florida beat 2-11 Stetson, none of which increase a team's résumé. The undefeated Gators did move into 4th place among "most likely" 1-seeds but they're heading into the SEC season and there's more chance of hitting turbulence than there is for Houston in the new, watered-down Big Twelve (still basically the 2nd toughest conference, or tied for 2nd with the Big Ten). Florida plays at Kentucky this coming Saturday which will have a measurable impact on both teams' 1-seed potential.
Speaking of the Big Ten, Illinois snatches back the "favorite" designation from Maryland with a 53-point beatdown of Chicago State, while the Terps' win over roughly-equivalent foe UMES was by 15 points. Both teams play Oregon this coming week; the Ducks are coming off a 40-point win over Weber State that pushed them up to a a 4-seed. UCLA, of course, got a solid boost from beating Gonzaga, while Michigan got the biggest gain in Dance Chance percentage of the sparse week after crushing a pretty solid Western Kentucky team 112-64.
Big East favorite Marquette was idle as was Big Twelve contender Iowa State.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 9. Illinois B10 9-3 23-8 27-4 90.9 +2.2 15.5 +1.4 3 3 10. Iowa St. B12 10-1 25-6 27-4 90.5 +2.1 12.8 -0.5 3 3 11. Marquette BE 11-2 25-6 28-3 89.6 +0.3 8.4 -1.1 3 3 12. Maryland B10 11-2 25-7 27-5 87.9 -1.1 9.6 -1.1 3 3 13. UCLA B10 11-2 23-8 26-5 86.5 +6.9 7.4 +3.8 4 4 16. Oregon B10 12-1 23-8 22-9 82.7 +7.7 3.9 +1.6 4 5 18. Michigan B10 10-3 22-9 23-8 82.1 +11.1 5.0 +3.1 5 6 22. Texas A&M SEC 11-2 20-11 20-11 73.3 +5.5 3.3 +0.3 6 7 23. Utah St. MWC 12-1 26-5 29-2 71.9 +4.4 <0.1 -0.1 6 7 25. Memphis Amer 10-3 26-5 28-3 70.4 +4.3 <0.1 0.0 7 7
Three former 7-seeds (above) in the SEC, Mountain West, and American had solid wins too. Texas A&M beat Abilene Christian 92-54; Utah State beat MWC rival San Diego State on the road; and Memphis topped Mississippi 79-66 at home. All but Memphis moved up to a 6-seed.
Below, most teams in the 7-10 range dropped to get there. San Diego State falls to a 9-seed after the Utah State loss. In the Big Ten, Penn State beat Penn by 20 but that wasn't enough as they fall from a 5 to a 7; and Purdue drops a seed for only beating Toledo by 19. Harsh! The Big Twelve had mixed results here, with Baylor falling a seed despite a 54-point win over Arlington Baptist in the Bears' first game in over 2 weeks. Arlington Baptist is non-D-I so the effect on Baylor's ranking is probably from their opponents (like former opponent Gonzaga losing again). Texas Tech, though, bucked the trend here and moved up a seed despite being idle. The Red Raiders' opponents as a group did very well last week, especially Wyoming who upset New Mexico.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 26. Penn St. B10 11-2 22-9 23-8 70.2 -2.9 1.2 -0.7 7 5 27. Baylor B12 8-3 20-11 22-9 70.1 -1.1 1.7 -0.4 7 6 28. Purdue B10 9-4 20-11 23-8 69.4 -1.5 0.5 -1.6 7 6 32. Texas Tech B12 9-2 21-10 22-9 65.4 +4.3 0.7 0.0 8 9 33. North Carolina ACC 8-5 21-11 23-9 63.2 -0.4 <0.1 -0.1 9 9 34. Clemson ACC 10-3 22-9 24-7 63.2 -0.8 0.1 0.0 9 9 35. San Diego St. MWC 8-3 22-7 23-6 62.1 -2.0 0.0 0.0 9 8 38. Texas SEC 11-2 19-12 20-11 58.3 -1.4 0.6 -0.2 10 10 40. Georgia SEC 12-1 19-12 18-13 57.1 -3.3 0.9 -0.2 10 9
The ACC teams above, UNC and Clemson, both dropped negligibly in Dance Chance odds; Clemson didn't play and the Tar Heels beat Campbell 97-81 and both held their 9-seeds. Texas and Georgia had slightly larger odds drops, but both won last week. The Bulldogs 7-point win over South Carolina State certainly caused their seed drop though.
The Bubble: SMU is still on the bubble, as always. They play Duke on Saturday so if they want off, they've got a chance right there. Drake is undefeated and still bubble-bound, but creeping closer to the place where they might hold on to an at-large if it's needed. Then there's Oklahoma and Mississippi, SEC teams heading toward some hurt in their conference schedule. Ole Miss lost at Memphis and accordingly slipped onto the play-in line, while Oklahoma edged lowly Prairie View by 12, dropping them onto the bubble despite a 13-0 record. They're expected to go about 6-12 from here, favored only in 4 games. But the Sooner have already beaten Arizona and Michigan on neutral courts so maybe they'll be one of "those" teams, like Providence from a few years back, that wins every game by a few points regardless of opponent. They play at Alabama on Saturday so we'll get some answers at that time.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 41. SMU ACC 11-2 23-8 26-5 56.7 +3.0 0.0 0.0 11 11p 42. Drake MVC 12-0 26-4 29-1 52.3 +3.3 0.0 0.0 11 11 43. Oklahoma SEC 13-0 19-12 17-14 52.0 -4.2 <0.1 -0.2 11 10 44. Mississippi SEC 11-2 18-13 18-13 49.5 -4.2 0.4 -0.5 11p 11 45. UC San Diego BW 12-2 27-5 29-3 48.7 +3.9 0.0 0.0 12 46. West Virginia B12 9-2 19-12 18-13 48.6 +0.8 0.1 +0.1 11p 11p 47. BYU B12 9-2 19-12 19-12 47.8 +2.0 0.1 0.0 12p 48. Iowa B10 9-3 19-12 17-14 47.7 +0.8 <0.1 0.0 12p 12p
UC San Diego (above) is new to our seedings after beating Occidental by 59 points. They replace UC Irvine (below) as the leader in the Big West, but as I've said a hundred times, with this little leeway it will come down to the conference tournament. West Virginia and BYU sneak in give the Big Twelve nine teams, while Iowa holds on as the Last Team In for a 2nd week and gives the Big Ten 11 teams.
Vanderbilt is First Team Out but with 13 SEC teams in, that's not a great place to be. Likewise for Nebraska, but the Huskers make a big jump in odds after winning the Diamond Head Classic by beating Oregon State in Honolulu; the Beavers are in the Second Four Out, along with conference-mates Saint Mary's, and with Gonzaga the only WCC rep they've not situated poorly but both took a small hit this week (the Gaels beat Pacific by only 10 points at home).
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 49. Vanderbilt SEC 11-1 18-13 16-15 47.7 +2.6 0.1 -0.1 50. Nebraska B10 10-2 19-12 16-15 45.9 +8.8 <0.1 0.0 51. UC Irvine BW 10-2 26-6 29-3 45.3 -2.0 0.0 0.0 12 52. New Mexico MWC 10-3 22-9 22-9 44.5 +5.3 0.0 0.0 53. Louisville ACC 8-5 20-11 22-9 41.1 -0.7 0.0 0.0 54. Oregon St. WCC 10-3 23-8 24-7 41.0 -4.8 0.0 0.0 55. VCU A10 10-3 23-8 27-4 40.3 +0.4 0.0 0.0 56. Saint Mary's WCC 11-3 22-9 22-9 40.0 -5.0 0.0 0.0
New Mexico is also in a good spot since the Mountain West, who had 6 bids last year, has only two teams in the brackets right now. The Lobos move up to 3rd place with a solid road win over Colorado State. Below we find more MWC teams: Boise State and Nevada, with the latter taking a big hit with the upset loss to Wyoming. And another West Coast team, Washington State, hoping to be the 2nd bid for that conference. They're doing a lot better than Washington right now as the Huskies have faded to 3.5% odds despite a 37-point win over New Jersey Tech. Probably the reality of the Big Ten season is creeping in? Their next three opponents are Maryland, Illinois, and Michigan State; they already have losses to UCLA and USC.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 57. Washington St. WCC 11-3 22-9 22-9 39.9 -2.5 0.0 0.0 58. Boise St. MWC 10-3 22-9 23-8 39.1 -1.5 0.0 0.0 60. Nevada MWC 8-5 20-11 22-9 38.3 -9.2 0.0 0.0 12p 65. LSU SEC 11-2 17-14 13-18 31.4 +4.4 <0.1 0.0 82. North Dakota St. Sum 11-4 23-8 25-6 18.7 +6.8 0.0 0.0 13 103. Western Kentucky CUSA 9-4 19-12 22-9 8.4 -5.2 0.0 0.0 123. Loyola Chicago A10 9-4 17-14 18-13 3.5 -4.8 0.0 0.0 124. Washington B10 9-4 13-18 11-20 3.5 -4.0 0.0 0.0 178. Missouri St. MVC 7-6 14-17 13-18 0.3 -1.7 0.0 0.0 210. Wright St. Horz 7-8 17-14 19-12 <0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.0
Western Kentucky's drop is due to their huge (48 point) loss to Michigan. Loyola-Chicago dropped two more games last week, meaning they've lost 4 of their last 5 including all three in Hawaii, against teams no tougher than they'll face in the Atlantic 10. LSU faces a tough task in the SEC but their odds got a bit brighter after they beat Mississippi Valley 110-45. Yes the Delta Devils might be the worst team in D-I but you can't ignore a 65-point win. And North Dakota State took over as Summit leader following a 34-point win over Cal-Bakersfield.
Probably the worst drop percentage-wise (by ratio, I mean) were Missouri State, who lost 85% of their odds after losing to Evansville 57-40; and Wright State, who lost roughly the same proportion with a loss to Cleveland State, their third in a row.
Comments