Another week, another Dance Chance projection with Auburn at the very top. A 41-point win over Georgia State and an 18 point win over Purdue didn't do anything but solidify the Tigers' position as the overall top 1-seed. They're very nearly a "lock" for the 2025 tournament and an astoundingly good bet for a 1-seed already in late 2024. Undefeated Tennessee is almost as certain a bet at 70% odds for a 1-seed, giving the SEC the two top teams. Duke is looking good for a 1-seed, but Gonzaga has just a 5.8% chance of remaining a 1-seed despite taking the 4th spot in today's projection. This is because their remaining schedule is easier and they rarely project below a 2-seed, while other teams have a greater "spread" of outcome. They play UCLA on Saturday, a game that might have a big effect on whether they take the last 1-seed or not, as their remaining schedule is on the easy side.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 1. Auburn SEC 11-1 28-3 30-1 >99.9 +0.2 90.7 +3.6 1 1 2. Tennessee SEC 11-0 27-4 30-1 98.9 +1.0 69.6 +7.9 1 1 3. Duke ACC 10-2 27-4 29-2 97.7 +1.0 41.9 +3.2 1 1 4. Gonzaga WCC 9-3 27-4 28-3 94.7 -0.3 5.8 -4.6 1 1 5. Houston B12 8-3 25-6 28-3 93.9 +1.4 18.0 +0.8 2 2 6. Kentucky SEC 10-2 22-9 25-6 92.1 -1.9 27.6 -10.2 2 2 7. Alabama SEC 10-2 22-9 25-6 90.9 -0.8 25.2 -7.8 2 2 8. Florida SEC 12-0 24-7 26-5 90.8 +7.3 22.7 +6.6 2 3
The current 2-seeds all have a much higher chance of getting a 1-seed than Gonzaga but they also have tougher schedules and thus have more ways to earn a 1-seed as well as a higher chance to screw it up than the Zags do. Houston, once 4-3, is now 8-3 and the Cougars outlook is good, and the 2-line now contains three more SEC teams, all with 20%+ odds of reaching the 1-line: fighting it out will be Kentucky, Alabama, and Florida. The Wildcats had a poor week, losing by 20 to Ohio State, a team Auburn beat by 38, resulting in a double-digit loss in 1-seed odds without dropping the 'Cats out of the 2-line. Alabama underperformed at North Dakota, winning by just 7 points. Florida shined however, remaining unbeaten with a win at North Carolina and a 54-point beatdown of North Florida.
The teams currently on the 3-line each has around a 10% shot at a 1-seed. Marquette drops to a 3-seed after tepid wins over Butler and Xavier but remains tops in the Big East. Maryland takes over as top dog in the Big Ten after crushing St. Francis 111-57 and beating Syracuse 87-60, just edging past Illinois who remains a 3-seed after beating Missouri 80-77 in St. Louis. Iowa State is the #2 Big Twelve team currently, their only loss to Auburn. The Cyclones pummeled Morgan State 99-72.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 9. Marquette BE 11-2 25-6 28-3 89.3 +1.5 9.5 -1.6 3 2 10. Maryland B10 10-2 25-7 28-4 89.0 +8.9 10.7 +5.2 3 4 11. Illinois B10 8-3 23-8 27-4 88.7 +1.8 14.1 -1.4 3 3 12. Iowa St. B12 10-1 25-6 27-4 88.4 +1.3 13.3 -1.0 3 3 13. Connecticut BE 10-3 24-7 27-4 83.0 -0.3 2.5 -0.6 4 3 17. Mississippi St. SEC 11-1 22-9 23-8 78.6 +7.1 7.6 +1.8 5 5 18. Ohio St. B10 8-4 21-10 23-8 77.6 +12.8 3.6 +2.0 5 8 19. Oregon B10 11-1 22-9 21-10 75.0 +5.0 2.3 +0.1 5 6
Connecticut, like Marquette, had trouble with both Xavier and Butler, needing overtime to beat the Musketeers and edging the Bulldogs by 4 points. Mississippi State is yet another SEC team with reasonable designs on a 1-seed; they're at 7.6%, meaning current ly-projected 1-seed Gonzaga is actually 12th in 1-seed odds! These Bulldogs beat Memphis on the road and only have one loss, to Butler (Butler is giving everyone fits despite being just 7-6!). And both Ohio State and Oregon had solid weeks, leading a huge swath of Big Ten teams in the 5- and 6-seed lines. The Buckeyes of course crushed Kentucky in New York, 85-65, propping them up 3 seeds, while the Ducks beat former Pac-12 rival Stanford 76-61 and are off to an 11-1 start.
I've been sleeping on St. John's, I have to admit. Last year's team came on strong at the end and might have made waves in the Dance if they'd been selected; it seems the momentum has carried through to this season where the Red Storm are 10-2 after beating DePaul 89-61 and Providence 72-70 on the road. Arizona got off to a rocky 4-5 start but last week was a good one, with the Wildcats beating Samford by 32 and Central Michigan 94-41(!). They need to beat the good teams, though, if they want a better seed than 8, though that is much better than being on the bubble like last week. Memphis and Dayton both took a hit last week, the Tigers losing to Mississippi State at home and the Flyers falling to Cincinnati.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 25. St. John's BE 10-2 23-8 25-6 69.6 +6.5 0.7 +0.3 7 8 28. Memphis Amer 9-3 25-6 28-3 66.1 -4.7 0.0 -0.2 7 5 30. Arizona B12 6-5 19-12 21-10 65.4 +13.1 0.5 +0.2 8 11 31. Dayton A10 10-3 25-6 27-4 65.2 -0.7 0.0 0.0 8 7 32. San Diego St. MWC 8-2 22-7 24-5 64.1 +6.6 <0.1 0.0 8 9 33. Clemson ACC 10-3 22-9 24-7 64.0 -4.6 0.1 -0.3 9 6 35. Texas Tech B12 9-2 21-10 20-11 61.1 +9.6 0.7 +0.6 9 11p
San Diego State, currently our #2 MWC team, beat Cal 71-50 and faces MWC #1 Utah State this Saturday, while Clemson, currently #3 ACC, lost their 2nd overtime game in a row at South Carolina and dropped to a 9-seed. Texas Tech had a fun week, beating up Oral Roberts by 36 and Lamar by 44, which took them off the play-in line in a big way. The Red Raiders don't have any quality wins so they'll have to have a strong Big Twelve season, which is looking more likely with their improvement in Strength rating.
The Bubble: We start off with two more SEC teams, Arkansas who has been here for a while, and Mississippi who dropped here from a 10-seed despite wins over Southern and Queens that weren't amazing enough (13 and 18 points) to meet the expectations of a 10-seed. As SEC teams #12 and #13 they won't get the benefit of the doubt. SMU, on the other hand, might get some leeway as they are only ACC team #5. Once again Drake resides here; they got a decent win at Kansas State but they followed that up with just a 10-point home win over lackluster Green Bay (yes, the team that lost to Michigan Tech).
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 41. Arkansas SEC 10-2 19-12 19-12 55.0 +2.5 0.7 -0.5 11 11 42. Mississippi SEC 11-1 19-12 18-13 53.7 -1.8 0.9 -0.6 11 10 43. SMU ACC 10-2 23-8 26-5 53.7 +2.8 <0.1 0.0 11p 12p 44. Drake MVC 11-0 26-4 29-1 49.0 -0.8 0.0 0.0 11 12 45. West Virginia B12 9-2 18-13 18-13 47.8 +2.1 <0.1 -0.1 11p 46. Nevada MWC 8-4 22-9 24-7 47.5 -4.7 0.0 0.0 12p 11p 47. UC Irvine BW 10-2 26-6 29-3 47.3 -8.1 0.0 0.0 12 10 48. Iowa B10 9-3 19-12 18-13 46.9 +7.5 <0.1 0.0 12p
West Virginia is new to the seedings, as is Iowa who has been just below the waterline for many weeks. The Hawkeyes got a solid win over Utah on Saturday to propel them to Last Team In. Nevada holds on as a play-in team, giving the Mountain West three teams, while Big West leader UC Irvine last to Duquesne 70-54, reinforcing the idea that the Anteaters' Dance hopes will probably come down to the Big West tournament.
Saint Mary's took a huge hit and fell below the waterline from a 9-seed; the Gaels lost at home to Utah State 75-68 but almost as bad was their way-too-close 73-68 home win over Merrimack, a game they should have cleared by at least 15. This left Gonzaga as the only West Coast Conference rep in the tournament, though the Gaels are joined by new WCC members Oregon State and Washington State in the lower bubble. Another team slipping out of the seedings is former WCC member BYU; even a 103-57 win over Florida A&M didn't keep them afloat.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 49. BYU B12 9-2 19-12 20-11 45.8 -1.3 0.1 +0.1 12p 50. Oregon St. WCC 9-2 22-7 23-6 45.8 +1.5 0.0 0.0 51. Vanderbilt SEC 11-1 18-13 16-15 45.1 +12.8 0.2 +0.2 52. Saint Mary's WCC 10-3 22-9 23-8 45.0 -11.9 0.0 0.0 9 53. UC San Diego BW 11-2 27-5 29-3 44.8 +6.4 0.0 0.0 54. Washington St. WCC 10-3 22-9 22-9 42.4 -4.5 0.0 0.0 55. Louisville ACC 7-5 20-11 22-9 41.8 +7.7 0.0 0.0 56. Boise St. MWC 9-3 22-9 23-8 40.6 -2.2 0.0 0.0
Vanderbilt at 11-1 is finally starting to convince our algorithm that they aren't last year's 9-23 teams; they're up almost 13% this week after beating The Citadel by 52 and Austin Peay by 30. The Commodores will have to navigate the SEC, which is now the toughest basketball conference, and they're 14th in line at the moment. But check out UC San Diego, whom I mentioned last week as having a great opportunity vs. Utah State; they made the most of it, beating the Aggies 75-73 on the road. Their followup vs. lowly San Diego wasn't as impressive (77-71) but they're closer to at-large consideration in the Big West, thought realistically they'll probably have to beat Irvine in the conference tournament. Louisville won the showdown of ACC-turnaround teams, beating Florida State 90-76 in Tallahassee, while Boise State currently projects as MWC team #4.
And below we see the effect the big home loss had on the Seminoles, who fell farther off the bubble going into ACC season. Also dropping were Utah (lost to Iowa) and Creighton (lost at Georgetown). Bradley got a good win over San Francisco and looks to challenge Drake in the Missouri Valley; meanwhile the 66-64 loss puts the Dons in the dumps, down almost 15% when combined with their followup 4-point home win over Montana.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 61. Utah B12 8-3 18-13 19-12 36.4 -8.1 <0.1 -0.2 65. Bradley MVC 10-2 24-7 27-4 32.3 +8.7 0.0 0.0 68. Creighton BE 8-5 17-14 17-14 29.3 -6.9 0.0 0.0 69. Florida St. ACC 9-4 19-12 20-11 28.3 -6.8 0.0 0.0 70. San Francisco WCC 10-3 21-10 22-9 28.3 -14.9 0.0 0.0 74. North Texas Amer 9-3 21-9 25-5 23.7 -7.2 0.0 0.0 79. Northern Iowa MVC 7-5 20-11 23-8 19.9 +5.3 0.0 0.0 83. Florida Atlantic Amer 7-6 20-11 22-9 16.4 -6.3 0.0 0.0
Northern Iowa had a mixed week with a positive spin; they fell to Washington State 76-68 on a neutral court, but the loss was expected. They also beat Montana 104-76 when they were expected to win by less than 10 points, so their Dance Chance odds jumped 5.3% in the end. North Texas had one of the more interesting weeks, winning three games but falling 7.2%!! The Mean Green beat Mississippi Valley 83-42, Appalachian State 68-64, and Houston Christian 62-46, all at home. The first game was a blowout against arguably the worst team in Division I which exceeded expectations, but they next two did not, especially the App State game. In the end it lowered their Strength rating by 3 points, and another game affected their Strength, too: Stephen F Austin beat Texas Wesleyan by 26 points, and back in November the Mean Green beat Texas Wesleyan just 73-66. That docked them another 1.5 points! All in all their projection changed by just 1 game, from 22-8 to 21-9, but it makes the American Athletic conference look like a certain 1-bid league. Florida Atlantic getting off to a 7-6 start doesn't help on that front.
Wichita State also stumbled, losing to Kansas City (formerly known as UMKC) 74-64 at home, meaning every decent AAC team was down from last week. The Big East saw DePaul lose twice by 20+ points but Georgetown started the conference season 2-0 with wins over Creighton and Seton Hall; last year the Hoyas won two conference games TOTAL. Loyola Chicago lost to Oakland in Hawaii, their 2nd loss in 3 outings, both on neutral courts and putting them in single digits for at-large hopes.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 85. DePaul BE 8-4 16-15 15-16 14.5 -5.3 0.0 0.0 86. Georgetown BE 10-2 17-14 14-17 13.8 +7.4 0.0 0.0 94. Stanford ACC 9-3 18-13 19-12 11.6 -7.4 0.0 0.0 98. Wichita St. Amer 9-3 21-10 22-9 10.7 -5.2 0.0 0.0 106. Loyola Chicago A10 9-2 18-11 19-10 8.3 -6.8 0.0 0.0 130. UC Santa Barbara BW 7-5 19-12 21-10 3.3 -5.2 0.0 0.0 146. James Madison SB 6-6 19-11 23-7 1.5 -5.1 0.0 0.0 212. Merrimack MAAC 5-8 17-14 22-9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 16p 16p 277. Colgate PAT 3-10 13-18 16-15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16p
Stanford not only lost to Oregon but got a scare from Merrimack, winning just 74-68. Not that's not deja vu, Merrimack lost to St. Mary's 73-68 and at Stanford 74-68. Their Strength jumped from #231 to #198 but their Dance Chance odds remained 0.1%, which still seems generous for a 5-8 team in a minor conference. The Warriors are the favorite to win the Metro Atlantic, however. Colgate was last week's favorite in the Patriot League but this week they're in 4th place following a 79-73 home loss to Iona which gave the Raiders a 3-10 start (only one team in the Patriot has a winning record so far). Both UC Santa Barbara and James Madison lost twice last week and shed most of their slim remaining hopes to get in the Dance any other way than winning the Big West and Sun Belt tournaments, respectively.
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