Auburn's 91-53 dismantling of Ohio State, on a technically neutral court, rates as the most impressive game of the season, edging past Gonzaga's opening-week 101-63 dusting of Baylor. The Tigers obviously keep their overall 1-seed and are already nearly lock-status for the tournament in mid-December. In fact their 1-seed odds are as good as Iowa State's odds to make the tournament!
Tennessee is also looking great for a 1-seed after a clutch 66-64 win at Illinois. Duke even slides in as 1-seed, probably because they hold the only win over Auburn (it wasn't the win over Incarnate Word last week). And Gonzaga holds on to their 1-seed despite falling to UConn 77-71. The Zags' 1-seed odds took yet another hit and now they stand at around 10%, only 11th highest 1-seed odds. The reason they are still 4th is that their path is less risky; their upside is low but there's little downside or so it seems.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 1. Auburn SEC 9-1 27-4 30-1 99.7 +1.0 87.1 +13.4 1 1 2. Tennessee SEC 10-0 27-4 30-1 97.9 +1.7 61.7 +6.3 1 1 3. Duke ACC 8-2 27-4 29-2 96.7 +2.8 38.7 +9.3 1 2 4. Gonzaga WCC 7-3 27-4 28-3 95.0 +0.7 10.4 -8.7 1 1 5. Kentucky SEC 10-1 24-7 26-5 94.0 -0.3 37.8 -6.3 2 1 6. Houston B12 6-3 25-6 28-3 92.5 +0.4 17.2 -1.4 2 2 7. Alabama SEC 8-2 23-8 25-6 91.7 +0.8 33.0 +1.6 2 2 8. Marquette BE 9-2 25-6 28-3 87.8 +0.5 11.1 -3.2 2 2
Interestingly Kentucky, who holds wins over both Duke and Gonzaga, slips to a 2-seed despite adding two wins. The Wildcats were less than impressive in beating Colgate 78-67 and Louisville 93-85, both at home. The tough SEC schedule won't forgive middling performances like those. But that's the only change in the top 2 seeds, as Houston holds still and Marquette remains a 2 despite losing at Dayton 71-63. Alabama beat both North Carolina and Creighton in a solid week of play that keeps aspiring for the top of the killer SEC.
There are really just 11 teams that look like 1-seed contenders at this point, with a big drop-off beyond that. The eight teams above, of course, joined by Iowa State, Illinois, and Florida. The Cyclones had a strong week beating Iowa in Iowa City, and the Gators remain undefeated after soundly beating Virginia and Arizona State. The Illini lost a heartbreaker to Tennessee which saw them shed a lot of their 1-seed odds (missed opportunity) but they beat Wisconsin earlier in the week.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 9. Iowa St. B12 9-1 25-6 27-4 87.1 +6.5 14.3 +6.8 3 3 10. Illinois B10 7-3 23-8 27-4 86.9 +0.6 15.5 -8.0 3 3 11. Florida SEC 10-0 23-8 24-7 83.5 +6.5 16.1 +4.8 3 4 16. UCLA B10 9-1 23-8 26-5 77.1 +14.4 4.3 +2.3 4 8 17. Mississippi St. SEC 9-1 21-10 24-7 71.5 -0.1 5.8 -0.5 5 5 18. Memphis Amer 8-2 25-6 28-3 70.8 +10.4 0.2 +0.2 5 8
Mississippi State ranks as the #6 team in the SEC, and they barely edged a solid McNeese team on Saturday, 66-63. Memphis continues to surprise with an overtime win at Clemson and climbs to a 5-seed. Though Illinois remains the top Big Ten team UCLA positions themselves as a contender after beating Arizona 57-54 for a 9-1 start; the Bruins Dance Chance goes up 14.8%, the biggest gain this week inside the seedings.
Speaking of the Big Ten, no league is wider-open right now. In addition to the pair above, five teams are logjammed together at the 5- and 6-lines. Penn State takes a step back after losing to Rutgers and Purdue lost to Texas A&M in Indianapolis, but Oregon, Michigan, and Michigan State make modest gains toward the Dance. The Wolverines move up despite losing to Arkansas in New York; they're still adjusting upward from last year's 8-24 team, the same way Purdue has yet to fully adjust downward from last year's NCAA runner-up squad. The Boilermakers take on overall 1-seed Auburn Saturday so it doesn't get any easier.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 19. Penn St. B10 9-2 22-9 24-7 70.3 -1.5 2.6 -0.8 5 5 20. Purdue B10 8-3 20-11 23-8 70.3 -9.6 2.6 -6.9 5 3 21. Oregon B10 10-1 22-9 21-10 70.0 +3.3 2.2 -0.1 6 6 22. Michigan St. B10 8-2 21-10 23-8 69.5 +1.0 2.2 -1.5 6 6 23. Michigan B10 8-2 21-10 23-8 68.8 +5.2 1.9 -1.0 6 7
Below, the ACC is falling into a familiar pattern of underperformance in the pre-conference season. Clemson lost to Memphis and North Carolina has already lost 4 games (all to good teams, though) going into a showdown vs. UCLA Saturday. Meanwhile the SEC continues to roll at all levels, with Texas A&M topping Purdue and Mississippi off to a 10-1 start after beating Southern Miss by 31 in Biloxi. The Atlantic 10's pride Dayton got a great win over Marquette to boost them to a 7-seed.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 24. Clemson ACC 9-2 23-8 26-5 68.6 -1.4 0.4 -1.4 6 5 25. Texas A&M SEC 9-2 20-11 19-12 67.3 +9.9 2.6 +0.7 7 9 27. Dayton A10 9-2 25-6 27-4 65.9 +10.3 <0.1 0.0 7 10 29. Ohio St. B10 6-4 20-11 21-10 64.8 -9.3 1.6 -5.5 8 4 31. North Carolina ACC 6-4 21-11 23-9 63.0 -1.0 0.9 -0.5 8 7 33. Wisconsin B10 9-3 20-11 22-9 58.2 -3.1 0.4 -1.3 9 8 35. Saint Mary's WCC 9-2 23-8 24-7 56.9 -1.7 <0.1 -0.1 9 9 38. Mississippi SEC 9-1 19-12 19-12 55.5 +10.7 1.5 +1.1 10 12p 39. UC Irvine BW 9-1 27-5 30-2 55.4 -2.9 <0.1 0.0 10 9
The Big Ten suffered quite a few setbacks this week, first among them Ohio State's huge loss to Auburn which knocked them down four seeds in one blow; they get a chance for redemption Saturday vs. Kentucky. Wisconsin did break a 3-game losing streak at Butler, 83-74, but their stock still fell slightly. And UC Irvine fell from the ranks of the unbeaten with a 67-55 loss to Oregon State. The Anteaters were expected to lose that game but now their Chalk projection is 30-2 as another future game tipped to a loss. Irvine doesn't have a lot of leeway for an at-large bid if they fail to win the Big West as they're pretty much out of committee-pleasing non-conference opportunities.
The Bubble: If Arkansas and Oklahoma both get in, that will be 13 SEC teams in the Dance by our estimation. Which is not good for the Razorbacks and Sooners. Arkansas flies in to an 11-seed after beating Michigan in New York, and Oklahoma is undefeated after topping Oklahoma State. It shows how tough the SEC is this season that Oklahoma is picked to go roughly .500 from here and finish a borderline NCAA team. If Nevada stays in they will make it three Mountain West teams, down from last year's six.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 41. Arkansas SEC 9-2 19-12 20-11 52.5 +12.4 1.2 +0.9 11 42. Oklahoma SEC 10-0 20-11 18-13 52.4 +0.8 0.7 -0.6 11 10 43. Arizona B12 4-5 18-13 21-10 52.3 -11.0 0.3 -1.2 11 7 44. Nevada MWC 8-3 23-8 25-6 52.2 +1.5 0.0 0.0 11p 11 45. Texas Tech B12 7-2 20-11 19-12 51.5 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 11p 10 46. SMU ACC 9-2 22-9 25-6 50.9 +6.4 <0.1 -0.1 12p 47. Drake MVC 9-0 26-4 30-0 49.8 +4.6 0.0 0.0 12 12 48. BYU B12 8-2 19-12 20-11 47.1 -4.1 <0.1 -0.4 12p 11
The Big Twelve has 8 teams in our seeding but that includes the three bubble teams above: Arizona, who lost to UCLA and is off to a 4-5 start; Texas Tech, who lost to Texas A&M in Ft. Worth but treads just above the waterline; and BYU who won twice last week but continues to correct downward from last year's 6-seed. New in the hunt is SMU who jumps in after beating LSU, and undefeated Drake remains where they've been for a while: in, but not "in" enough to be safe from a Missouri Valley tournament loss. The Bulldogs beat non-D-I St. Ambrose 90-35 is last week's most lopsided and least important game.
Below the bubble: Washington State dipped down to the First Team Out, and two other West Coast teams hope to give the conference a third bid: San Francisco is in this area as usual and Oregon State joins the First Four Out. Both gave undefeated teams their first loss over the weekend; the Dons beat Loyola-Chicago and the Beavers topped UC Irvine, the latter win being much more impactful. Two more Big Twelve teams sit here, making it 5 on the bubble. West Virginia's odds improved the most of any team in the nation as they beat NC Central and Bethune Cookman by 34 and 23, making a believer out of our algorithm which started the Mountaineers with last year's 9-23 rating. It also showed less confidence in Utah's chances in the Big Twelve, where the Utes are now team #10 of 16.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 49. Washington St. WCC 9-2 22-9 24-7 46.9 -1.6 <0.1 0.0 11p 50. West Virginia B12 8-2 18-13 17-14 45.7 +15.9 0.1 +0.1 51. Utah B12 7-2 19-12 20-11 44.5 -6.0 0.2 -0.2 11p 52. Oregon St. WCC 7-2 21-8 23-6 44.3 +10.2 <0.1 0.0 53. San Francisco WCC 9-2 22-9 24-7 43.2 -0.8 0.0 0.0 54. Boise St. MWC 7-3 22-9 23-8 42.8 +1.4 0.0 0.0 55. VCU A10 9-2 24-7 27-4 42.0 +1.8 0.0 0.0 56. Iowa B10 8-3 18-13 17-14 39.4 -1.0 <0.1 -0.1
Boise State is team #4 in the Mountain West; they beat St. Mary's in overtime but it didn't give them much of a boost. VCU is team #2 in the Atlantic 10 could help them if push comes to shove, and the Rams beat the MWC's Colorado State in Nevada and play another MWC team, Nevada, next. And Iowa is playing about exactly as expected week to week and remaining right here, under the waterline. The Hawkeyes lost to rival Iowa State 89-80, then took out their frustrations on New Orleans, 104-57. They are a very distant #11 in the Big Ten right now.
UC San Diego is a very distant #2 in the Big West but they could challenge UC Irvine. So far the Tritons have had an interesting year, playing San Diego State close and winning the 8-team Boardwalk Battle all the way over in Daytona Beach, to a 9-2 start. Their biggest test yet is at Utah State on Tuesday. Meanwhile in the ACC, two turnaround teams will clash when Florida State hosts Louisville. The Seminoles are 8-3 after going 9-23 two years ago, and the Cardinals are 6-5 after going 8-24 last year. Meanwhile Arizona State is off to an 8-2 start despite losing to Florida on Saturday; the Sun Devils were 14-18 last season.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 57. UC San Diego BW 9-2 25-7 28-4 38.4 +5.8 0.0 0.0 59. Florida St. ACC 8-3 20-11 22-9 35.1 +0.1 0.0 0.0 62. Arizona St. B12 8-2 18-13 15-16 34.8 +4.5 0.0 0.0 63. Louisville ACC 6-5 19-12 20-11 34.1 +4.5 0.0 0.0 64. Indiana B10 8-3 17-14 13-18 33.4 -4.6 <0.1 0.0 65. Liberty CUSA 10-1 25-6 29-2 32.5 -1.1 0.0 0.0 12 12 66. Vanderbilt SEC 9-1 17-14 13-18 32.3 +5.8 <0.1 0.0 69. Northwestern B10 8-3 17-14 17-14 29.2 -6.1 0.0 0.0
Indiana also seems much improved though they fell at Nebraska 85-68 last Friday, while Northwestern apparently didn't beat Georgia Tech by enough (11 points) to keep from shedding 6% of their odds. The outlook for both teams in the Big Ten isn't great given so many teams rank above them. Vanderbilt is in much the same boat in the SEC, though the Commodores beat Virginia Tech and TCU last week and are 9-1, matching last year's win total already! And Liberty is 10-1 and faces a soft schedule going forward which could leave them with a gaudy record if they cruise through Conference-USA like they should.
LSU continues to rebuild after two rough seasons. They were 2-16 in the SEC in 2023 and 9-9 last year, but this year's conference is at another level. 8-2 after losing to SMU, the Tigers will relax vs. three cupcakes before the New Year and conference play. The three Big East teams below had mixed results, with Xavier (beat Morgan State by 61 points and only lost at Cincy by 3) and DePaul (took Providence into overtime and beat Wichita State by 19) improving but Butler taking a big hit by losing to North Dakota State at home, then falling to Wisconsin too.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 70. LSU SEC 8-2 16-15 13-18 28.4 -5.9 <0.1 -0.1 76. Xavier BE 8-3 17-14 16-15 22.1 +6.8 0.0 0.0 79. Butler BE 7-4 16-15 17-14 21.1 -15.3 0.0 0.0 81. DePaul BE 8-2 17-14 16-15 19.8 +8.7 0.0 0.0 89. N.C. State ACC 7-4 17-14 18-13 15.3 -9.9 0.0 0.0 102. North Dakota St. Sum 10-4 22-9 24-7 9.2 +7.9 0.0 0.0 116. Akron MAC 6-3 20-9 22-7 6.6 -5.3 0.0 0.0 14 127. Colorado St. MWC 5-5 15-16 15-16 5.1 -6.4 0.0 0.0
NC State lost to Kansas 75-60 but what hurt more was only beating Coppin State—#362 of 364 in Strength—by 10 points at home. Akron was the MAC favorite until last weekend's 100-81 loss to Wisconsin-Milwaukee. And Colorado State's loss to VCU puts the Rams at 5-5, expected to finish 15-16 after a 25-11 campaign last season.
Comments