Auburn tasted defeat for the first time, falling to Duke 84-78 last Wednesday. But the Tigers already have wins over Houston and Iowa State and rank near the top of the Strength power rating, so a road loss to another top seed doesn't kick them out of the projected overall 1-seed spot. In fact their odds of getting a 1-seed increased to nearly 3 in 4 after a 98-54 blowout of Richmond. With new AP #1 Tennessee undefeated and Kentucky surging after beating Gonzaga last Saturday, the SEC has three projected 1-seeds! Can it stay this way until March?
History says it's not likely; only in 2009 and 2019 has a conference had three 1-seeds. Tennessee has over 50% odds now while Kentucky—who lost to Clemson before the Gonzaga win—comes in at 44% Two 1-seeds happens almost every other year so we'll call that the likely scenario for the SEC. Gonzaga fell to just 19.1% in 1-seed odds while Duke is up to 29.4% but the Zags hang on, barely, to the last 1-spot. Gonzaga needs big wins in the pre-conference season to get a 1-seed, as their opportunities dry up in January in the WCC. The Bulldogs face UConn on Saturday.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 1. Auburn SEC 8-1 27-4 30-1 98.7 +1.1 73.7 +6.7 1 1 2. Tennessee SEC 8-0 26-5 29-2 96.2 +2.1 55.4 +7.8 1 1 3. Kentucky SEC 8-1 24-7 27-4 94.3 +3.6 44.1 +8.1 1 2 4. Gonzaga WCC 7-2 27-4 29-2 94.3 +0.6 19.1 -13.4 1 1 5. Duke ACC 7-2 26-5 29-2 93.9 +6.9 29.4 +11.4 2 2 6. Houston B12 5-3 25-6 28-3 92.1 +1.1 18.6 -0.9 2 1 7. Alabama SEC 7-2 23-8 25-6 90.9 +4.6 31.4 +5.8 2 2 8. Marquette BE 9-1 26-5 29-2 87.3 +6.1 14.3 +4.6 2 3
For Duke, it was three's a charm, the Blue Devils having lost to Kentucky and Kansas in nail-biters before finally winning a big one. Houston's 1-seed odds dipped to 18.6%; despite beating Butler 79-51, they lost most of their big pre-conference games including one to Alabama, whose 1-seed odds are 4th best at 31.4%. A lot of that is due to opportunity in the SEC season, though they did just beat North Carolina. And new 2-seed Marquette had a split week, with Saturday's win over WIsconsin more than making for their first loss at Iowa State days before.
Only two other teams have double-digits odds for getting a 1-seed presently, Illinois and Florida. Florida, like Alabama, has the rich SEC season to mine for Quad-1 wins.The Illini are tops in the Big Ten despite their overtime loss to Northwestern on Friday which knocked them to a 3-seed; they face Tennessee on Saturday. Three other Big Ten teams below are looking to replace Purdue at the top: Ohio State slipped a bit with an 83-59 loss at Maryland, who parlayed that into a 3-seed-level gain despite losing on the road to Purdue on Sunday. Penn State keeps exceeding expectations as they actually topped the Boilermakers 81-70 on Thursday.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 9. Illinois B10 6-2 23-8 27-4 86.3 +3.0 23.5 +1.0 3 2 13. Florida SEC 9-0 23-8 25-6 77.0 +5.2 11.3 +1.1 4 5 14. Pittsburgh ACC 8-2 24-7 27-4 74.2 -2.3 2.1 -5.0 4 3 15. Ohio St. B10 6-3 21-10 23-8 74.1 -0.4 7.1 -2.2 4 4 16. Maryland B10 8-2 24-8 25-7 74.0 +14.6 3.5 +2.2 4 7 17. Penn St. B10 8-1 23-8 25-6 71.8 +12.9 3.4 +2.0 5 8 19. Kansas B12 7-2 21-10 22-9 71.3 -2.9 3.4 -5.7 5 4 20. Clemson ACC 9-1 24-7 26-5 70.0 +15.8 1.8 +1.3 5 10 24. Cincinnati B12 7-1 22-9 25-6 64.4 -7.8 2.2 -5.4 6 4
Clemson had a big week, jumping from a 10-seed to a 5-seed on the strength of a 70-66 win over 1-seed Kentucky. It didn't hurt that Kentucky beat Gonzaga later last week, nor that Penn State is off to an 8-1 start too. ACC-mates Pitt suffered a setback with a 90-57 loss to Mississippi State. In the Big Twelve both Kansas and Cincy lost ground; the Bearcats lost to Villanova 68-60 while the #1 AP Jayhawks lost twice, first to Creighton 76-63, then Missouri 76-67, both on the road.
Most of the new 7-seeds got there by falling from above, like North Carolina who lost to Alabama 94-79 at home then beat Georgia Tech by just three points. Arizona crushed Southern Utah 102-66 but their 4 losses are catching up to them as our power ratings further separate them from last year's results. And Utah State might have gotten ahead of themselves a bit, with their close call 70-67 home win over Wyoming the likely cause of their 1-seed-line drop. They're still undefeated though, and that's a rarity already in the college basketball world! Michigan bucked the trend by joining the 7-line from below, with a win at Wisconsin and narrow win over Iowa at home powering the Wolverines to an 8-1 start. The Badgers lost twice last week (also to Marquette), their first defeats of the season dropping them 3 seed lines.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 25. North Carolina ACC 5-4 21-11 24-8 64.0 -7.5 1.4 -3.0 7 5 26. Michigan B10 8-1 21-10 23-8 63.6 +12.8 2.9 +1.3 7 11 27. Arizona B12 4-4 20-11 22-9 63.3 -4.5 1.5 -1.5 7 5 28. Utah St. MWC 9-0 25-6 27-4 63.1 -3.0 1.0 -0.2 7 6 29. UCLA B10 8-1 21-10 22-9 62.7 +14.0 2.0 +0.9 8 11p 31. Wisconsin B10 8-2 20-11 22-9 61.3 -7.8 1.7 -4.1 8 5 32. Memphis Amer 7-2 24-7 26-5 60.4 -0.4 <0.1 -0.5 8 7 38. Texas SEC 7-2 19-12 21-10 53.1 -3.5 1.2 -1.2 10 8 39. Oklahoma SEC 9-0 20-11 18-13 51.6 -2.9 1.3 -0.4 10 10 40. Texas Tech B12 7-2 20-11 20-11 51.6 -2.7 0.2 -1.0 10 10
UCLA surged ahead by becoming the first team to beat Oregon, 73-71, on the road even; they face Arizona Saturday. Texas and Oklahoma are facing the reality of a very tough SEC schedule, which has the undefeated Sooners projected to go as bad as 9-13 going forward. Texas lost their undefeated record to UConn, 76-65 at home. Texas Tech, still in the Big Twelve, fell to Texas A&M 72-67 on Sunday.
The Bubble: Two Big Twelve teams dropped into the bubble region. BYU fell 83-64 to unheralded Providence while Utah lost 72-63 to St. Mary's at home. But the SEC was all successes here: Georgia improved their lost from a 12-seed play-in to the top 11-seed with a 69-48 win over Notre Dame, while Missouri and Mississippi scored wins over Kansas and Louisville respectively to give the Southeast Conference a gaudy TWELVE teams in our seedings. That's crazy—and probably too good to last the conference season, much like their three 1-seeds.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 41. Georgia SEC 8-1 19-12 18-13 51.3 +6.6 1.5 +0.8 11 12p 42. BYU B12 6-2 20-11 23-8 51.2 -12.6 0.4 -3.0 11 6 43. Nevada MWC 6-3 23-8 24-7 50.7 -11.2 0.0 -0.3 11 7 44. Utah B12 6-2 19-12 23-8 50.5 -5.6 0.4 -1.9 11p 9 45. Washington St. WCC 8-2 22-9 24-7 48.5 +11.6 <0.1 -0.1 11p 46. Missouri SEC 8-1 19-12 18-13 46.3 +8.7 0.7 +0.3 12p 47. Drake MVC 8-0 24-5 28-1 45.2 +0.3 <0.1 -0.1 12 12 48. Mississippi SEC 8-1 18-13 15-16 44.8 +10.9 0.4 +0.2 12p /pre>
Nevada's fall was Washington State's gain, literally, as the Cougars beat the Wolf Pack 68-57 in Pullman. The Cougars also beat Boise State while Nevada lost to Loyola Marymount, the result being both teams are 11-seeds now. Drake is still undefeated but still borderline.
Boise's loss to Washington State knocks them out of the seedings but the Broncos are still in the Last Four Out, along with SMU (beat Virginia 63-51 on Saturday), San Francisco (beat St. Louis 78-61 last week), and Iowa (beat Northwestern by a point and lost at Michigan by 2 points).
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 49. SMU ACC 8-2 21-10 24-7 44.5 +2.4 0.1 0.0 50. San Francisco WCC 7-2 22-9 25-6 44.0 +1.5 0.0 -0.1 51. Boise St. MWC 6-3 21-10 24-7 41.4 -7.8 0.0 -0.1 11p 52. Iowa B10 7-2 18-13 16-15 40.4 +2.0 0.1 -0.3 53. VCU A10 7-2 23-8 27-4 40.2 +6.1 0.0 0.0 54. Arkansas SEC 7-2 18-13 16-15 40.1 +3.7 0.3 +0.2 55. Indiana B10 7-2 17-14 13-18 38.0 +6.7 <0.1 -0.2 56. Creighton BE 7-3 18-13 20-11 37.8 +5.2 <0.1 -0.1
VCU had a good week, beating Georgia Southern and Penn by 35 and 19, while Arkansas beat Miami and UTSA. Indiana beat Sam Houston and Miami (Ohio), while Creighton improved surprisingly little for beating Kansas 76-63 at home. They face Alabama this Saturday and winning that would put them back in the seedings for sure.
Two other teams dropped from last week's seedings: New Mexico and Nebraska. The Lobos lost to New Mexico State at home in overtime, and the Cornhuskers were crushed 89-52 by Michigan State, sinking their seasonal outlook to 16-13. McNeese lost to Santa Clara, putting them 4-4 on the year before beating non-D-I LeTourneau 103-69. The Cowboys are still favorites in their conference (the Southland) however.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev 58. New Mexico MWC 7-3 21-10 23-8 35.5 -14.4 0.0 -0.1 11 64. Nebraska B10 6-2 16-13 16-13 33.6 -10.1 0.2 -0.2 12p 75. McNeese Slnd 5-4 24-8 27-5 25.9 -10.3 0.0 0.0 12 12 79. Villanova BE 6-4 17-14 16-15 21.4 +10.6 0.0 0.0 94. TCU B12 5-4 14-17 12-19 12.4 -10.3 0.0 0.0 110. Washington B10 6-3 14-17 10-21 8.9 -12.1 0.0 -0.1
Villanova is 6-4 and barely projected to have a winning record, but that puts them a few wins within consideration and they're up 10% from last week after their upset of Cincinnati. TCU and Washington are both projected to have losing records and miss the tournament; the Horned Frogs are down to 12.4% after losing to Vanderbilt for a 5-4 start, while the Huskies are in single digits after losses to UCLA and USC in their inaugural Big Ten season.
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