Week 2 and we have two new #1 seeds, Gonzaga and UConn. Gonzaga still riding the wave of their big win over Baylor, UConn moving up after posting larger-margins wins over their low-ranked opponents. Auburn and Houston stay put at #1 overall seed and #2.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 1. Auburn SEC 3-0 24-5 29-0 91.0 +4.9 44.9 +10.0 1 1 2. Houston B12 2-1 26-5 29-2 89.1 +6.1 36.6 +8.6 1 1 3. Gonzaga WCC 3-0 25-4 28-1 86.4 +13.2 24.7 +11.6 1 2 4. Connecticut BE 3-0 25-4 29-0 84.3 +4.1 25.3 +2.2 1 2 5. Purdue B10 4-0 24-6 29-1 83.0 -0.1 26.3 -7.5 2 1 6. Tennessee SEC 4-0 24-6 28-2 82.4 +8.6 26.5 +9.4 2 2 7. Arizona B12 2-1 22-7 28-1 80.8 -1.6 24.2 -8.5 2 1 8. Alabama SEC 3-1 22-9 25-6 77.1 +7.4 19.8 -1.1 2 3
Purdue is obviously adjusting to their new reality (our pre-season rankings were last season's rankings) and without Zack Edey they aren't a 1-seed. Still, they managed to beat Alabama 87-78 at home, but apparently that was a good thing for Alabama who moved up to a 2-seed! These seedings are prior to Purdue's loss to Marquette, so go figure. Arizona's fall from a 1-seed makes more sense, as they lost at Wisconsin 103-88.
That win boosted Wisconsin's Dance Chance by almost 13% and the Badgers move up to a 4-seed. Kentucky also got a big boost last week with a win over Duke in Atlanta, 77-72. And Cincinnati has posted three very solid wins so far, the latest over decent Nicholls, 86-49. But the big rebound of the week is Baylor, who shook off their huge Gonzaga loss with 104-67 and 104-41 wins over Sam Houston State and Tarleton State. They regained 6 of the 7 seed lines they lost in week one! Who said exciting things aren't happening in the NCAA bracket projections?
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 10. Kentucky SEC 3-0 23-8 24-7 72.8 +12.2 14.6 +6.5 3 4 14. Wisconsin B10 4-0 21-9 25-5 65.4 +12.8 6.8 +0.9 4 5 17. Cincinnati B12 3-0 22-9 24-7 61.2 +11.7 6.4 +2.1 5 6 20. Baylor B12 3-1 19-11 19-11 58.6 +16.0 7.3 +3.2 5 11 22. Michigan St. B10 3-1 19-10 26-3 57.0 -2.2 4.5 -4.5 6 4 24. Florida Atlantic Amer 3-2 22-7 26-3 56.2 -3.6 0.1 -3.9 6 4
News wasn't as good for Michigan State and Florida Atlantic. The Spartans fell to Kansas in Atlanta, and the Owls dropped two of three games last week, losing to UCF by 6, to Charleston in OT, and beating Liberty in OT.
Texas Tech and Texas jumped to the 7-line, the Red Raiders mainly due to beating Wyoming 96-49, and the Longhorns from beating two very bad teams by 40+ point margins (and moving them back ahead of the team that beat them in week 1, Ohio State). Penn State made had another big week, beating Virginia Tech 86-64 in Baltimore. The Nittany Lions started at #87 in the pre-season, jumped to a 12-seed play-in team last week, and are now a projected 8-seed. For comparison, they started at #66 in KenPom and are now #33.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 27. Texas Tech B12 3-0 20-10 20-10 53.4 +10.0 4.8 +1.9 7 10 28. Texas SEC 3-1 20-10 21-9 53.4 +11.0 3.7 +2.1 7 11 31. Penn St. B10 4-0 21-9 25-5 52.0 +13.2 3.2 +2.0 8 12p 35. Creighton BE 4-0 21-10 26-5 50.1 -1.2 3.0 -1.4 9 6 37. Texas A&M SEC 3-1 19-12 19-12 48.9 +11.3 2.4 +0.9 10 38. San Francisco WCC 4-0 22-8 24-6 48.0 +11.8 0.9 +0.5 10 39. Washington St. WCC 3-1 21-9 23-7 48.0 -1.3 0.8 -1.6 10 7
Creighton and Washington State fell three seeds each, the Blue Jays despite logging two blowouts. Maybe beating Houston Christian by 35 isn't enough to hold a 6-seed? I dunno. The Cougars lost to Iowa in Moline, IL 76-66, and were favored based on last season's performance; clearly the Cougars suffered an exodus due to their conference dispersing, as they ended up in the West Coast Conference. Jumping in at 10-seed is another WCC team, San Francisco who beat Chicago State 82-37, and Texas A&M who rebounded from their loss to UCF by beating Ohio State 78-64.
The bubble:
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 41. New Mexico MWC 3-1 22-8 25-5 45.7 -6.1 0.4 -2.9 11 5 42. Oklahoma SEC 3-0 19-10 22-7 45.7 +1.5 2.0 -0.4 11 10 43. San Diego St. MWC 2-0 20-9 21-8 43.7 -5.2 0.9 -2.1 11p 7 44. Clemson ACC 3-1 20-10 25-5 42.3 -6.9 0.5 -3.1 11p 7 45. Dayton A10 4-0 22-7 25-4 41.7 -6.2 0.5 -0.9 11 8
The Mountain West race is hopefully going to be as good this year as it was last season. New Mexico opened as a 5-seed but last week's loss to St. John's (85-71) put them in their place. Another team that was great last year but not expected to do as well this season is San Diego State, and their 80-67 loss to Gonzaga has started the correction process. Oklahoma is a bubble team in their new conference, while Clemson's loss to Boise State put them on the bubble for now. Dayton is expected to win the Atlantic 10 but if they don't they might end up being a borderline at-large selection. Beating non-DI team Capitol just 76-55 does not instill confidence.
Oregon and TCU are the last two teams above the waterline. TCU lost to Michigan while Oregon needed overtime to beat Portland at home.
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 46. Oregon B10 4-0 19-12 20-11 41.4 -0.6 2.1 -0.5 12p 11p 47. TCU B12 3-1 18-12 20-10 41.4 -3.5 0.9 -2.1 12p 10 48. Memphis Amer 3-0 19-10 22-7 39.2 +7.1 0.1 0.0 49. Northwestern B10 3-1 18-12 18-12 37.4 -4.0 0.7 -1.3 12p 50. Iowa B10 4-0 18-13 18-13 36.7 -2.0 1.0 -0.4 51. Louisiana Tech CUSA 3-0 22-6 27-1 36.5 +5.6 <0.1 0.0 12 12 52. Maryland B10 3-1 19-13 19-13 35.7 +0.6 0.4 -0.4
There's plenty of Big Ten on the bubble with Northwestern, Iowa, and Maryland all in the First Four Out (Louisiana Tech is expected to win the CUSA). The Wildcats slipped out of their play-in spot after needing overtime to top Eastern Illinois at home, while the Hawkeyes' win over Washington State surprisingly didn't move them into the seedings (they were First Four Out last week, too).
Record Dance Chance Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 63. Colorado St. MWC 3-1 19-11 20-10 29.4 -12.0 <0.1 -1.2 11p 67. Michigan B10 2-1 15-15 10-20 26.8 +10.6 0.4 +0.3 84. Wake Forest ACC 4-1 16-14 17-13 21.7 -10.7 0.1 -0.8 100. Indiana St. MVC 2-2 20-11 26-5 15.0 -12.2 0.0 -0.1 123. James Madison SB 2-2 19-9 24-4 11.3 -9.7 0.0 0.0 14 140. Cornell Ivy 3-1 18-9 21-6 9.0 -11.4 0.0 0.0
Other teams that made an impression last week, positive or negative, include: Colorado State, who dropped off the bubble after a 15-point loss to Mississippi; Michigan, winners over TCU; Wake Forest who fell 75-60 to Xavier; Indiana State, whose rating continues to get adjusted for this season's reality (losing to SI Edwardsville at home helped the process along); same goes for James Madison who lost to Towson 67-63; and Cornell who lost to La Salle 93-77.
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