If you didn't get the memo, college basketball has started up and already crazy things are happening and big games are going down.
Case in point—Auburn has jumped to the overall #1 seed in the Dance Chance following a 74-69 road win over fellow 1-seed Houston. The Tigers move up from a 2-seed and the Cougars remain a 1-seed, so it's not earth-shattering by any means, but it does push Auburn's odds of finishing a 1-seed up 14.1%. Interestingly of last year's national title game contenders it was Edey-less Purdue that held their ground as a 1-seed while UConn slips to a 2-seed despite outperforming expectations in their games against low-ranked non-conference foes. Arizona held their 1-seed with a 102-44 win over Old Dominion but will be tested against Wisconsin this week.
Record Dance Chance 11/10/2024 Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 1. Auburn SEC 2-0 24-5 26-3 86.1 +15.3 34.9 +14.1 1 2 2. Purdue B10 2-0 24-6 30-0 83.1 +2.2 33.8 +2.2 1 1 3. Houston B12 1-1 25-6 29-2 83.0 +4.5 28.0 -2.3 1 1 4. Arizona B12 2-0 23-6 29-0 82.4 +6.1 32.7 +5.0 1 1 5. Connecticut BE 2-0 25-4 29-0 80.2 -4.1 23.1 -11.4 2 1 6. Tennessee SEC 2-0 24-6 28-2 73.8 +2.6 17.1 -1.6 2 2 7. Duke ACC 2-0 24-7 29-2 73.2 +7.9 18.5 +3.9 2 3 8. Gonzaga WCC 2-0 24-5 28-1 73.2 +13.5 13.1 +7.3 2 3
Tennessee did well enough to hold their 2-seed while Duke moved up from a 3-seed. Moving up in spectacular fashion is Gonzaga who destroyed former 4-seed Baylor 101-63, a game they were supposed to win by just a point given pre-season ratings.
Alabama and Illinois held their 3-seeds after beating UNC Asheville 110-54 and Eastern Illinois 112-67 respectively. Alabama travels to Purdue on Friday—and then play Illinois next Wednesday. The Tide likely have the toughest non-conference schedule in the nation. North Carolina's 92-89 loss to Kansas dropped them to a 3-seed.
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 9. Alabama SEC 2-0 22-9 26-5 69.7 +9.6 20.9 +8.0 3 3 10. Illinois B10 2-0 23-8 27-4 69.5 +8.1 15.8 +4.8 3 3 11. Iowa St. B12 1-0 21-8 25-4 69.1 0.0 15.4 -4.6 3 2 12. North Carolina ACC 1-1 22-8 28-2 63.1 -6.1 9.1 -8.0 3 2 13. Kentucky SEC 2-0 22-9 20-11 60.6 +9.1 8.1 +1.7 4 5 14. Marquette BE 2-0 22-9 26-5 60.1 +2.3 6.6 -3.4 4 4 15. Florida Atlantic Amer 2-0 23-6 28-1 59.8 +16.3 4.0 +2.6 4 8 16. Michigan St. B10 2-0 20-9 27-2 59.2 +5.0 9.0 +1.5 4 5
Kentucky rode a couple of 100-point games to a 4-seed but they'll face Duke on Tuesday. The big news above is Florida Atlantic, who was a question mark coming into the season and rated an 8-seed but the Owls delivered against former 6-seed Indiana State, winning 97-64 and vaulting to a 4-seed. Note that Indiana State was an even bigger question mark, so the impact of that win will probably diminish.
Below are several other big movers who all had great first weeks. Utah State leapt off the bubble with 101-46 and 103-74 wins over Alcorn State and Charlotte. Joining the Aggies as a 6-seed is Cincinnati who had their own blowout wins including 109-54 over Arkansas Pine Bluff. Kansas' big win had more meat to it; they beat North Carolina 92-89 which improved the Jayhawks' admittedly low-ball outlook in our pre-season ratings.
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 23. Utah St. MWC 2-0 22-8 24-6 50.5 +15.0 3.0 +1.9 6 12p 24. Cincinnati B12 2-0 20-11 23-8 49.5 +9.5 4.3 +0.6 6 10 28. Kansas B12 2-0 19-12 17-14 48.5 +8.4 5.4 +0.8 7 10 30. Mississippi St. SEC 2-0 20-10 24-6 47.5 +7.5 3.6 +0.4 8 11 32. UC Irvine BW 3-0 25-7 32-0 47.5 +16.3 0.3 +0.2 8 12
Mississippi State beat two Georgia schools (West- and -State) by a combined 70 points, while UC Irvine won three games. Two were over D-I opponents (Loyola Marymount and Northern Iowa) they were "supposed" to beat by 5 points and 1 point; instead they won by 15 and 20.
The Bubble: meaningless right now but always interesting. Baylor fell here from a 4-seed as they were crushed so bad by Gonzaga their projected record (Chalk) fell from 22-8 to 17-13. Texas lost to Ohio State, 80-72 in Las Vegas, dumping the Longhorns from a 7 to an 11 and elevating the Buckeyes to the same seed. Colorado State fell 3 seeds due toneeding overtime to beat Tennessee State at home.
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 41. Baylor B12 1-1 18-12 17-13 42.6 -12.3 4.1 -5.7 11 4 42. Ohio St. B10 1-0 18-13 21-10 42.5 +9.4 2.7 +0.2 11 43. Texas SEC 1-1 19-11 21-9 42.4 -2.3 1.6 -1.5 11 7 44. Oregon B10 2-0 19-12 20-11 42.0 +8.7 2.6 +1.1 11p 45. Colorado St. MWC 2-0 20-10 24-6 41.4 -2.0 1.3 -1.1 11p 8 46. Northwestern B10 1-1 18-12 19-11 41.4 +6.9 2.0 +0.7 12p 47. Penn St. B10 2-0 19-11 20-10 38.8 +16.5 1.2 +0.9 12p 48. Iowa B10 2-0 19-12 17-14 38.7 +5.8 1.4 +0.3 49. Texas A&M SEC 1-1 18-13 18-13 37.6 +4.7 1.5 -0.6 50. Nebraska B10 2-0 17-12 16-13 37.0 -3.7 1.7 -1.1 10 51. San Francisco WCC 2-0 21-9 22-8 36.2 +5.3 0.4 0.0
Joining Ohio State in the seed-line is Oregon, as well as fellow Big Ten (18?) teams Northwestern and Penn State. The Wildcats' outlook improved from a 5-point road loss to 8-seed Dayton, while the Nittany Lions had the biggest improvement in Dance Chance odds (up 16.5%) after beating Binghamton 108-66 and UMBC 103-54, games they were forecast to win by 19 and 17 points. Adding to the Big Ten bum rush is first-team-out Iowa and 3rd team out Nebraska, who fell from a 10-seed mostly due to only beating Bethune-Cookman by 5 points at home.
The teams below had mixed results but improved or declined by double figures. Wake Forest was on the negative side despite three wins; the Deacons underperformed in all three by an average of 15 points. Even worse was Indiana State but that was expected, if that makes any sense. Our pre-season rankings just go by last year's results, and the Sycamores are a completely different team. They fell to Florida Atlantic 97-64. James Madison underperformed for the same reason, even losing to Norfolk State 83-69 (but still the Sun Belt favorite for now). Louisiana Tech and UC San Diego were on the plus side, though. The Bulldogs won twice and we favor them in all but 2 games this year. The Tritons lost to 7-seed San Diego State by just 5 points on the road.
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 57. Wake Forest ACC 3-0 18-12 20-10 32.4 -10.9 0.9 -1.8 8 60. Louisiana Tech CUSA 2-0 21-7 26-2 30.9 +11.1 <0.1 +0.1 12 13 66. Indiana St. MVC 1-1 22-9 27-4 27.2 -20.5 0.1 -1.3 6 76. UC San Diego BW 1-1 20-10 26-4 23.5 +10.0 <0.1 +0.1 85. James Madison SB 1-1 21-7 25-3 21.0 -12.8 0.0 -0.2 14 12 86. Villanova BE 2-1 17-13 16-14 20.8 -17.9 <0.1 -1.9 11p 98. Xavier BE 2-0 16-14 15-15 17.2 -10.6 <0.1 -1.0 101. Seton Hall BE 1-1 15-14 15-14 17.0 -15.0 0.0 -0.9 110. Butler BE 1-1 15-15 14-16 15.0 -11.0 <0.1 -0.2
Four teams in the Big East hit the skids: Villanova lost to Columbia 90-80 at home and lost their 11-seed; Xavier struggled a bit with IU Indianapolis (formerly known as IUPUI, #361 in Strength); Seton Hall lost at home to Fordham, 57-56; and Butler lost at home to Austin Peay. Based on just these early results it's safe to say the Big East is down a notch or two this season.
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1seed %chg seed prev 127. Richmond A10 1-1 15-13 17-11 11.5 -11.4 0.0 -0.1 128. Saint Joseph's A10 1-1 16-13 19-10 11.4 -10.9 0.0 -0.1 147. Appalachian St. SB 1-2 19-11 25-5 9.0 -16.1 0.0 -0.1 162. Vermont AE 1-2 20-11 26-5 6.7 -10.9 0.0 0.0 14 175. Morehead St. OVC 1-2 21-10 27-4 5.7 -10.3 0.0 0.0 16 14
A few more underperformers above. Richmond and St. Joe's didn't do the A-10 any favors last week. The Spiders lost to Marist, 79-72 at home, while the Hawks lost to Central Connecticut 73-67. Bad non-conference losses make it harder for a league like the Atlantic 10 to get at-large bids, so these results matter.
Appalachian State lost twice, to Miami Ohio and Wisconsin, putting the Mountaineers more in line with this season's reality (they were 27-7 last year, a feat unlikely to be replicated). Vermont fell to top seed Auburn 94-43, and then to Merrimack 65-51. The Catamounts lost their America East leadership position, while Morehead State held on in the OVC despite their 2 losses to Louisville (93-45) and Cincinnati (83-56).
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