All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Purdue Boilermakers
Seed: 1
Record: 33-4
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
NC State Wolfpack
Seed: 11
Record: 26-14
Conference: ACC
Date: Saturday, April 6
Time: 6:09pm Eastern
Location: Glendale, AZ
Channel: TBS
Of all people, I should have known an 11-seed would make the Final Four yet again.
Purdue NC State
Power Ratings
Strength: #3 Strength: #50
Median: #4 Median: #66
Markov: #2 Markov: #23
Pomeroy: #3 Pomeroy: #43
Offense: #2 Offense: #40
Defense: #16 Defense: #44
BPI: #3 BPI: #40
LRMC: #4 LRMC: #50
Other Measures:
Tempo (Offense): #234 Tempo (Offense): #116
Consistency: #167 Consistency: #90
2nd half season: #2 2nd half season: #39
Last 4: #2 Last 4: #9
This game, if scheduled during the regular season, would have been considered cruel and unusual punishment. NC State was a reliably pedestrian team for the entire regular season. They were good enough to have a winning record, 17-14 vs. a pretty tough schedule (#68). And they were so consistent it bordered on boring. The Wolfpack were #4 in the nation in Consistency before the ACC tournament! Finishing #66 in Kenpom, they lost to no team that finished worse than #86 and won only twice vs. teams that ended up higher than #66.
By the end of a 5-game run to win the ACC tournament, NC State's Consistency had fallen to #18, the result of playing their three best games during that stretch. And now as they enter the Final Four, their Consistency has fallen to #90; their six best games were played in their last 8 contests.
And the inconsistency has all been on the upside. That's why, despite a #50 Strength rating for the full year, their Median performance is still only #66 (their great recent games don't affect the Median much). Their Pomeroy rank has gone from #66 to #43 during the tournament, almost all due to their Defense going from #75 to #44. Their Markov Chain ranking was #73 on March 10, but #35 after their ACC tourney win and is up to #23 now.
Purdue meanwhile has been a force all year, one of three dominant teams for the 2024 season (the others being Houston and UConn). They're better in just about every way than NC State on a full-year basis, but things narrow considerably when compared to the "new" Wolfpack. Still, their play during the tournament has been better, though that's mostly due to one huge game (Utah State).
The numbers above are valid for Purdue but can't really be trusted for NC State. They're playing better than those numbers suggest, and are about 2.5 points better on offense and almost 10 points better on defense. That would mean they're playing top 5 defense right now, enough to be a match for Purdue's #2 offense.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (17): (13)Samford+53, (14)Morehead St.+30, =(5)Gonzaga+10, =(2)Tennessee+4, =(2)Marquette+3, =(4)Alabama+6, (2)Arizona+8, (3)Illinois+5, (9)Northwestern+OT, @(5)Wisconsin+6, (9)Michigan St.+6, @(3)Illinois+6, (5)Wisconsin+8, =(9)Michigan St.+5, =(16)Grambling St.+28, =(8)Utah St.+39, =(5)Gonzaga+12, =(2)Tennessee+7
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (9): =(5)Gonzaga+10, =(2)Tennessee+4, =(2)Marquette+3, =(4)Alabama+6, (2)Arizona+8, (3)Illinois+5, @(3)Illinois+6, =(5)Gonzaga+12, =(2)Tennessee+7
- Wins vs. Final Four (1): =(4)Alabama+6
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @(9)Northwestern-OT, @(8)Nebraska-16, =(5)Wisconsin-OT
- Other losses (1): @Ohio St.-4
Overview: Purdue has one hell of a résumé, with three 2-seeds (Tennessee, Marquette, and Arizona) among their non-conference wins, the first two on neutral courts. They beat 4-seed (and Final Four team) Alabama and 5-seed Gonzaga (both underseeded for how good they are), again, on neutral courts. And their best non-conference wins might have been beating 13-seed Samford 98-45 and 14-seed Morehead State 87-57 in their first two games. Purdue has 9 wins over the Sweet Sixteen from six different conferences, each one except the ACC and Mountain West.
The Big Ten is where Purdue suffered all four losses, and to some fairly pedestrian teams: 5-seed Wisconsin, 8-seed Nebraska, 9-seed Northwestern, and NIT pick Ohio State. Two of the four losses were in overtime.
Purdue revolves around Zack Edey, a two time Player of the Year. He puts up 24.4 points and grabs 11.7 rebounds per game. Four other Boilermakers average double figures but he's the man; without him, they'd probably be an 8-seed playing a 1-seed instead of the other way around. Edey had 30 points and 21 rebounds against Grambling State. Purdue might have played their best game (2nd best, by our chart numbers) of the season in beating Utah State 106-67, with Edey scoring 23. He had 27 in the win over Gonzaga. Edey scored 40 against Tennessee to offset Dalton Knecht's 37, and a key late block by Edey sealed the Boilermakers' 72-66 win.
**************************************************************
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (10)Virginia+16, @(6)Clemson+1, =(4)Duke+5, =(10)Virginia+OT, =(1)North Carolina+8, =(6)Texas Tech+13, =(14)Oakland+OT, =(2)Marquette+9, =(4)Duke+12
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (5): @(6)Clemson+1, =(4)Duke+5, =(1)North Carolina+8, =(2)Marquette+9, =(4)Duke+12
- Wins vs. Final Four (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =(6)BYU-9, =(2)Tennessee-9, (1)North Carolina-13, @(10)Virginia-OT, @(1)North Carolina-9, (4)Duke-15
- Other losses (8): @Mississippi-20, Virginia Tech-6, @Syracuse-12, Pittsburgh-3, @Wake Forest-4, Syracuse-4, @Florida St.-7, @Pittsburgh-8
Overview: NC State was a good team all year—good, not great, and not really threatening to most teams. They played a really easy non-conference schedule and lost to all the decent teams they faced (BYU, Ole Miss, Tennessee). They picked up early ACC wins over B.C. and Virginia, though, so in conference play they looked like a potential thorn. For the most part they continued to lose to good teams, culminating in a 4-game skid at the end that destroyed any hope they had of an at-large bid. So instead, they suddenly became a great team and beat Louisville, Syracuse, 4-seed Duke, 10-seed Virginia, and 1-seed North Carolina in a five day span. It's not quite like UConn of 2009 (who won 5 straight to win the Big East, beating a 6-seed, 1-seed, 3-seed, and 4-seed along the way) but it's pretty close. So while we don't expect a national title out of the Wolfpack, history suggests there could be more good things to come. I wrote that at the start of the tournament and look at that—now they're in the Final Four.
DJ Horne leads four starters in double figures for the 'Pack, but against Texas Tech it was reserve Ben Middlebrooks leading with 21 points; he made 6 of 8 shots and 9 of 10 free throws. In the 79-73 overtime thriller vs. Oakland it was big man DJ Burns leading the way with 24 on 9 of 12 shooting. Horne finally led vs. Marquette with 19. NC State played their best game of the year against Duke, winning 76-62 behind Burns' 29 points.
**************************************************************
Game Analysis: How do we deal with a team that isn't at all playing like its year-long stats suggest? With NC State, we'll have to just "keep in mind" that they're playing a lot better. It also helps that 85% of their improvement is in their defensive game.
Purdue has the nation's #2 offense at the moment per Pomeroy, while NC State is #44 on defense but we've suggested they're playing top five defense over the last 8 games. So when it looks like a mismatch here—Purdue's excellent shooting vs. NC State's mediocre defending, and huge rebounding advantage for the Boilermakers—keep that in mind and narrow what looks like a big gap. NC State probably won't close the gap by blocking a lot of shots, but it looks like they could force a lot of turnovers. Over NC State's surge their opponents have really struggled to hit 3s—Duke went 5 of 20 in both games—so we'll see what that means for Purdue's #2 3-point shooting.
The Wolfpack hasn't made nearly as much progress on the offensive end, so they're probably fairly rated at #40 per Kenpom. They don't shoot very well and Purdue defends well, and they won't have the rebounding edge here either. Nor does it look like they'll get to the line often. The one thing they won't have to worry about is turnovers. But missing shots and not getting rebounds is a bad formula for success, and nothing in their recent surge suggests it will be any different. DJ Burns has been great lately but he's 6-9 going up against 7-4. He did well against Duke's Filipowski but Edey is another level of consistency.
So we see Purdue struggling from the 3-point line as all of NC State's recent foes have, but Purdue winning with defense and Edey's inside play on offense. The Boilermakers beat Tennessee shooting just 3 of 15 on threes.
Vegas Line:
Purdue by 8 1/2
Power rating: spread
Purdue by 12.6 / 4.0
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Purdue: 83.2% / 53.1%
NC State: 16.8% / 46.9%
Purdue is an 8 1/2 point favorite by Vegas, compared to our power rating's 12.6 point spread, and just a 4 point margin over the last 8 games (NC State's surge). Purdue's odds for the full season? 83%. For the last 8? 53%. What a difference. If we make it 4 games—just the tournament—Purdue is a 62.5% favorite by odds and 9.3 points by average (Purdue's huge win over Utah State balloons that one).
11-seeds have made the Final Four five times, but only faced a 1-seed there once, when Gonzaga beat UCLA in overtime. UCLA had just defeated 1-seed Michigan to get there, and overall 11-seeds have defeated 1-seeds 4 of 9 times. But they've lost every time in the Final Four: LSU lost to 2-seed Louisville 88-77 in 1986; George Mason lost to 3-seed Florida 73-58 in 2006; VCU lost to 8-seed Butler 70-62 in 2011; Loyola-Chicago lost to 3-seed Michigan 69-57 in 2018; and UCLA to 1-seed Gonzaga 93-90 (OT) in 2021.
Bottom line: History shows that 11-seeds make it to the Final Four all the time. History also shows they don't make the finals.
Final prediction: Purdue 75, NC State 71
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
Comments