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UConn Huskies
Seed: 1
Record: 36-3
Conference: Big East
vs.
Purdue Boilermakers
Seed: 1
Record: 34-4
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Monday, April 8
Time: 9:20pm Eastern
Location: Glendale, AZ
Channel: TBS
Here is it, 1-seed vs. 1-seed for the national title. Repeat or redemption.
UConn Purdue
Power Ratings
Strength: #1 Strength: #3
Median: #1 Median: #3
Markov: #1 Markov: #2
Pomeroy: #1 Pomeroy: #2
Offense: #1 Offense: #3
Defense: #4 Defense: #12
BPI: #2 BPI: #3
LRMC: #1 LRMC: #4
Other Measures:
Tempo (Offense): #294 Tempo (Offense): #244
Consistency: #306 Consistency: #147
2nd half season: #1 2nd half season: #2
Last 5: #1 Last 5: #2
This is the best outcome we could have hoped for: Purdue's redemption from their embarrassing loss to a 16-seed last year, and UConn's quest for a repeat national title. History for UConn's situation is complicated: they either have a 62% chance or a 40% chance, depending on how far back you go. Purdue's situation has only one precedent: 2019 Virginia who won the national title in overtime.
By Strength it's #1 vs. #3, per BPI it's #2 vs. #3, and by Pomeroy it's #1 vs. #2. LRMC isn't updated after Selection Sunday but had UConn #1 then and Purdue #4. More important are the KenPom Offense and Defense rankings, where it's a stalemate when Purdue has the ball and a fair UConn advantage when the Huskies have the ball.
It looks like a slower tempo game based on how these teams play offense, and UConn is more the wild card here though lately they've only played above-average. Their dominance increased as the season progressed until they took over the #1 spot everywhere except the BPI. Their play over the course of the tournament has been amazing, and while Purdue is #2 there it's a big gap.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (12): =(7)Texas+10, =(1)North Carolina+11, @(5)Gonzaga+13, (3)Creighton+14, (2)Marquette+28, @(2)Marquette+7, =(2)Marquette+16, =(16)Stetson+39, =(9)Northwestern+17, (5)San Diego St.+30, (3)Illinois+25, =(4)Alabama+14
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (9): =(1)North Carolina+11, @(5)Gonzaga+13, (3)Creighton+14, (2)Marquette+28, @(2)Marquette+7, =(2)Marquette+16, (5)San Diego St.+30, (3)Illinois+25, =(4)Alabama+14
- Wins vs. Final Four (1): =(4)Alabama+14
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @(4)Kansas-4, @(3)Creighton-19
- Other losses (1): @Seton Hall-15
Overview: Just like we noted with Marquette, the Big East teams are going to show very few tournament wins because all the Big East teams got left out. It's basically the Big East Big Three and whoever you played in non-conference, so a 1-seed like UConn has just seven big wins. One of those was 1-seed North Carolina though, and 5-seed Gonzaga is always impressive. They lost to 4-seed Kansas, and even to Seton Hall (one of the bracket-busted Big East teams). Note that of their 7 original tourney wins, six now count as wins over the Sweet Sixteen.
UConn is looking to repeat as champs and everyone is falling over themselves comparing them to 2007 Florida, but as I've said, the danger is them resembling 2017 Villanova. The 2017 Wildcats, trying to repeat their 2016 championship, entered the 2nd round 32-3 and lost to 8-seed Wisconsin. Will UConn fall in the 2nd round to a middle-seeded Big Ten team as well? The answer was no, and neither did they fall in the Sweet Sixteen, which no other defending national champ has made it past—since 2007 Florida. Now they're in the finals, and of the 21 teams in that situation in NCAA tournament history, 13 have won and 8 have lost.
The Huskies are led by Tristen Newton's 15.2 ppg and four others average in double figures. Donovan Clingan scored 20 points in UConn's 91-52 first round win over Stetson. The Huskies didn't slow down at all against Northwestern, winning easily 73-58 behind Newton's 20 points. The Huskies simply blew away San Diego State, 82-52, as Cam Spencer led with 18. UConn took control over Illinois with a 30 point run and won 77-52 as Donovan Clingan scored 36. Alabama put up a good fight for a while but fell like the others as Stephon Castle's 21 led the Huskies into the finals.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (18): (13)Samford+53, (14)Morehead St.+30, =(5)Gonzaga+10, =(2)Tennessee+4, =(2)Marquette+3, =(4)Alabama+6, (2)Arizona+8, (3)Illinois+5, (9)Northwestern+OT, @(5)Wisconsin+6, (9)Michigan St.+6, @(3)Illinois+6, (5)Wisconsin+8, =(9)Michigan St.+5, =(16)Grambling St.+28, =(8)Utah St.+39, =(5)Gonzaga+12, =(2)Tennessee+7, =(11)N.C. State+13
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (10): =(5)Gonzaga+10, =(2)Tennessee+4, =(2)Marquette+3, =(4)Alabama+6, (2)Arizona+8, (3)Illinois+5, @(3)Illinois+6, =(5)Gonzaga+12, =(2)Tennessee+7, =(11)N.C. State+13
- Wins vs. Final Four (2): =(4)Alabama+6, =(11)N.C. State+13
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @(9)Northwestern-OT, @(8)Nebraska-16, =(5)Wisconsin-OT
- Other losses (1): @Ohio St.-4
Overview: Purdue has one hell of a résumé, with three 2-seeds (Tennessee, Marquette, and Arizona) among their non-conference wins, the first two on neutral courts. They beat 4-seed (and Final Four team) Alabama and 5-seed Gonzaga (both underseeded for how good they are), again, on neutral courts. And their best non-conference wins might have been beating 13-seed Samford 98-45 and 14-seed Morehead State 87-57 in their first two games. Purdue has 9 wins over the Sweet Sixteen from six different conferences, each one except the ACC and Mountain West.
The Big Ten is where Purdue suffered all four losses, and to some fairly pedestrian teams: 5-seed Wisconsin, 8-seed Nebraska, 9-seed Northwestern, and NIT pick Ohio State. Two of the four losses were in overtime.
Purdue revolves around Zack Edey, a two time Player of the Year. He puts up 24.4 points and grabs 11.7 rebounds per game. Four other Boilermakers average double figures but he's the man; without him, they'd probably be an 8-seed instead of a 1-seed. Edey had 30 points and 21 rebounds against Grambling State. Purdue might have played their best game (2nd best, by our chart numbers) of the season in beating Utah State 106-67, with Edey scoring 23. He had 27 in the win over Gonzaga. Edey scored 40 against Tennessee to offset Dalton Knecht's 37, and a key late block by Edey sealed the Boilermakers' 72-66 win. He only had 20 vs. NC State but it was enough in a low-scoring, 63-50 win.
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Game Analysis: As I mentioned, defending NCAA champs who make the finals the next year are 13-8 (62%), so that's good for UConn. But those stats are skewed by UCLA who went 7-0 in repeat attempts. So it's really 6-8 (43%), or if we move things up to the modern (64-team tournament) era, it's just 2-3 (40%). 1992 Duke and 2007 Florida succeeded, where 1985 Georgetown, 1995 Arkansas, and 1997 Kentucky lost. It's telling that no team has been in the position to repeat since 2007, as that's the start of the one-and-done era where a team's superstars usually left for the draft the next year. UConn has some consistency from last year (two starters back) but nothing like 2007 Florida's five starters returning.
UConn is looking invincible lately but Purdue can beat them. It's going to take a really good game by the Boilermakers, or (and?) a bad game by the Huskies, however, given how UConn has improved over the course of the season. Purdue has stayed mostly the same, focusing on Edey and three-point shooting. If either one of those advantages falls through then Purdue's hopes are dim.
Edey's effectiveness could be lessened by Donovan Clingan, who at 7-2 is one of the taller opponents Edey will have faced. Normally Purdue has a huge inside edge with Edey, who hits 62.5% inside. But UConn's interior defense is #2 in the nation at just 43%. UConn's 3-point defense is very good but Purdue hits 40.6% normally so that might be what has to win the game for the Boilermakers if Edey isn't as effective due to Clingan.
Purdue's rebounding will be key; they normally have a big advantage on both ends but UConn's offensive rebounding is excellent so it's a stalemate there. When Purdue is on offense they should get a lot of boards which is critical. UConn is #4 nationally in 2-point percentage at 59%, with Clingan making 65%, so Edey's defense might be as important as his offense. Clingan is a better shot-blocker; Purdue rarely gets shots blocked though.
UConn's defense doesn't excel at creating turnovers, an area where Purdue is somewhat vulnerable. And the Boilermakers don't go for steals either. Purdue's best attribute on defense is lack of fouling, so UConn will rarely test its 74.2% free throw rate; on the other hand, Purdue gets to the line a lot, so this is an area that could keep the game close.
Purdue doesn't have much room for error. Edey's effectiveness is bound to be lower than usual considering that he's up against another elite center, so Purdue's three-pointers will have to fall. UConn has a big height advantage everywhere except at center so getting open for those shots is probably necessary, too. Edey will have to pass effectively to the open guards at the right time, and his rebounding will be critical on both ends of the court. Even if he doesn't score a lot he can win the game for them via rebounding and assists.
Vegas Line:
UConn by 6 1/2
Power rating: spread
UConn by 1.2 / 6.0
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
UConn: 55.4% / 76.0%
Purdue: 44.6% / 24.0%
Why is the spread for UConn at the sportsbooks so ridiculously wide compared to the Strength power rating? 6 1/2 vs. around 1 point is a monster difference. Normally they're within a point or two. It's not just Strength that shows UConn by a slim margin: BPI has UConn by 1 point, Kenpom has UConn by 3.
It comes down to recent play, meaning during the tournament, during the post-regular season, and during the last six weeks. In all of those spans, UConn has been a dominant force. This wasn't true for the full season. In November and December UConn was a good team, top ten but not elite. That started to change in January and by mid-February there was talk of them repeating as national champs.
Their play in the tournament is 6.0 points better than Purdue's, winning 76% of comparisons vs. 55.4% for the full season. Since their last loss, they've been 8.5 points better, with an 84% chance to win. Given this it's easy to see why UConn is a bigger favorite than the full-season figures would suggest.
Bottom line: Over the course of the tournament, or the 2nd half of the season, UConn has a 6 point edge. So no matter what, I'd take the under. As for the winner, UConn looks unstoppable now but my pick before the start was Purdue and I'm staying with them. They'll have to be perfect to win, but it's a fair bet that they'll be the hungrier team at least.
Final prediction: Purdue 77, UConn 74
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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