I've been harping on the fact that 11-seeds are great picks forever now, and I take them all the time. Well not all the time because this round I only took 2 of the 3 yesterday, but I should have taken all 4 because ALL THREE 11-SEEDS WON in the first round!
11-seed NC State? Beat 6-seed Texas Tech 80-67.
11-seed Oregon? Beat 6-seed South Carolina 87-73.
11-seed Duquesne beat 6-seed BYU 71-67.
There's one more 6- vs 11- left, Clemson vs. New Mexico. But even if Clemson wins that one, it's 3 of 4 for the 11-seed.
Since 2011, 11-seeds are an amazing 26 of 51. They've topped 50% now in that time frame. Even if New Mexico loses, that's exactly 50%. For what should be a pretty good victory clip for the 6-seed, you would think!
Before 2011 (that is, from 1985 to 2010) 11-seeds were a pedestrian 35 of 104, or just 33.7%.
What changed? I'm not sure but the tournament expanded to 68 teams from 64 in 2011, causing a shift in what an 11-seed is. It should have perhaps diluted the 11-seed spot, as more teams were just added to the bottom, and had to play-in. Play-in teams have had solid success, but 11-seeds overall do better than just 11-seed play-in teams, so it's not just a phenomenon of "getting winning momentum" off the bat.
Not many people are noticing how good the 11-seeds are because the full stats from 1985 (as of last year) still show a 38.2% win percentage for 11-seeds, which looks decent but not alarming. 50% looks alarming!
Now, in back to back years, three 11-seeds have won, with a game remaining, making the "all-time" odds for a 6-seed 60.9% . All three 7-seeds beat 10-seeds yesterday, so those odds (from 1985-2024) are now 61.7%. No matter what happens tomorrow, the odds of a 6-seed winning in the first round are now LOWER than the odds of a 7-seed winning.
That's never happened before (outside of the tossup 8 vs. 9 spot). Imagine the odds of a 3-seed winning their opening game being better than the odds of a 2-seed.
This is going to wake people up. When they see the '85-'24 stats next year when doing their brackets, they'll see the weirdness of the bottom line number NOT increasing as you do down the seeds. Finally, they will note the power of the 11-seed.
But they might not know it's really a 50/50 game. It will still show the 6-seed as a 61% favorite. But you will know. You will know.
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