Well the regular season is over and we have a few surprises in the Dance Chance going into major conference tournament week. Get this: right now Michigan State is out—but Ohio State is in! And both Drake and Indiana State are in—for now. And the final 1-seed is up for grabs. Let's start there, using the Dance Chance through games of Sunday, March 10:
3day 7day Seed Seed Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds %Chg %Chg 1-seed 3/10 3/03 1. Houston B12 28-3 100.0 0.0 0.0 97.7 1 1 2. Purdue B10 28-3 100.0 0.0 0.0 98.6 1 1 3. Connecticut BE 28-3 100.0 0.0 0.0 84.7 1 1 4. Tennessee SEC 24-7 100.0 0.0 0.0 60.4 1 1 5. North Carolina ACC 25-6 100.0 0.0 0.0 20.3 2 2 6. Iowa St. B12 24-7 100.0 0.0 0.0 17.4 2 2 7. Arizona P12 24-7 100.0 0.0 0.0 19.8 2 2 8. Creighton BE 23-8 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2 3 9. Kansas B12 22-9 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3 2
Very little changed here even after all the chaos among the 2-seeds. Houston and Purdue are still flip-flopping for top overall seed, with Purdue on top mid-week but Houston regaining the lead with their (very predictable) 30-point win over former 2-seed Kansas. UConn kept winning and stayed solid as a 1-seed, but Tennessee got clocked by Kentucky at home and...remained a 1-seed for now. That's because Arizona, a 1-seed just a few weeks ago, lost to USC 78-65, a much worse ding on their résumé than a 4-point loss to UK. Iowa State was waiting in the wings but they lost at Kansas State.
North Carolina did surge into the top 2-seed spot by beating Duke at Cameron Indoor, and if they win the ACC and Tennessee doesn't win the SEC, look for the Tar Heels to be the last 1-seed. ISU and Arizona are still in play if both of the above falter. Meanwhile Creighton beat Marquette by 14 and got a buzzer-beater to top Villanova, and the Jays swapped places with the Jayhawks, the only movement in the top 2 seeds; both have a very outside chance as we see it.
3day 7day Seed Seed Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds %Chg %Chg 1-seed 3/10 3/03 10. Auburn SEC 24-7 100.0 0.0 0.0 <0.1 3 4 11. Marquette BE 23-8 100.0 0.0 0.0 <0.1 3 3 12. Baylor B12 22-9 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3 3 13. Duke ACC 24-7 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 4 3 14. Kentucky SEC 23-8 100.0 0.0 0.0 -- 4 5 15. BYU B12 22-9 100.0 0.0 0.0 -- 4 4 16. Alabama SEC 21-10 100.0 0.0 0.0 -- 4 4 17. Clemson ACC 21-10 100.0 0.0 +0.1 -- 5 5 18. Illinois B10 23-8 100.0 0.0 0.0 -- 5 4
Duke dropped a seed from the 84-79 defeat, and Auburn took advantage to jump to a 3-seed after two easy wins. Marquette and Baylor hold as 3-seeds despite stumbles to Creighton and Texas Tech respectively. The only swap in the 4 vs. 5 line is Kentucky surging from their win at Tennessee and Illinois slipping from their home loss to Purdue. BYU and Alabama held as 4-seeds, though both lost early in the weeks. BYU fell at Iowa State and Alabama got crushed 105-87 at Florida, but both notched a home win to end the week. Clemson had a solid win over Syracuse that put them at the 100% mark, then lost at Wake Forest and remained a 5-seed.
3day 7day Seed Seed Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds %Chg %Chg 1-seed 3/10 3/03 19. Nevada MWC 26-6 >99.9 0.0 +3.7 -- 5 6 20. Gonzaga WCC 24-6 >99.9 +0.1 +0.2 -- 5 5 21. San Diego St. MWC 22-9 98.4 -1.5 -1.5 -- 6 5 22. Texas Tech B12 22-9 97.7 +9.0 +14.0 -- 6 8 23. Utah St. MWC 26-5 97.1 -0.5 +0.7 -- 6 6 24. Boise St. MWC 22-9 94.7 +4.1 -2.7 -- 6 6 25. Nebraska B10 22-9 92.8 +0.5 +2.1 -- 7 7 26. New Mexico MWC 22-9 91.9 -6.4 -1.3 -- 7 7 27. South Carolina SEC 25-6 88.7 -1.2 -2.2 -- 7 7 28. Texas B12 20-11 88.0 +13.6 +9.0 -- 7 9 29. Colorado St. MWC 22-9 86.2 -3.9 -0.6 -- 8 8 30. TCU B12 20-11 86.0 -13.0 -10.6 -- 8 6
We're once again in the Mountain West Zone. All six teams from the MWC are here. Whereas other bracketologists have these teams spread out—some higher, a few quite a bit lower—the Dance Chance doesn't really see much distinction between these teams, and they've rotated turns at the top of the conference. Right now it's Nevada's turn after the Wolf Pack ended the season on a 7-game streak, beating Boise State and UNLV and jumping to a 5-seed. Meanwhile San Diego State—everyone else's top MWC dog—laid an egg this week losing to both those same teams, first the Rebels then the Broncos, knocking the Aztecs to a 6-seed.
Boise State and Utah State are both 6-seeds now, after the Broncos 1-1 week and the Aggies won twice, over San Jose State and New Mexico. Speaking of the Lobos, they're the team that most people have on the bubble but here they're still a fairly solid 7-seed despite losing three of their last four games. And Colorado State made their case by winning twice this week too. The conference tournament is going to be madness!
In Big Twelve news here, new 6-seed Texas Tech had a great week, beating Oklahoma State and 3-seed Baylor. And while 7-seed Texas lost to Baylor on the road they benefitted more from beating Oklahoma and jumped 2-seeds as well. But TCU did the reverse, falling to an 8-seed after a 79-77 home loss to Central Florida.
3day 7day Seed Seed Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds %Chg %Chg 1-seed 3/10 3/03 31. Saint Mary's WCC 24-7 82.8 -1.5 +2.7 -- 8 9 32. Florida SEC 21-10 82.2 -14.9 +2.9 -- 8 9 33. Wisconsin B10 19-12 80.7 -1.0 +0.1 -- 9 8 34. Washington St. P12 23-8 80.5 -4.5 -14.1 -- 9 7 35. Dayton A10 24-6 80.2 +1.6 +1.4 -- 9 9 36. Drake MVC 28-6 77.2 +19.6 +19.5 -- 9 11 37. Colorado P12 22-9 76.9 +6.4 +17.5 -- 10 11 38. Northwestern B10 21-10 70.8 +2.9 +1.9 -- 10 10 39. Florida Atlantic Amer 24-7 70.4 +5.7 +11.0 -- 10 11 40. Oklahoma B12 20-11 67.8 -2.1 -1.1 -- 10 10 41. Indiana St. MVC 28-6 65.4 +7.6 +5.8 -- 11 10 42. Virginia ACC 22-9 64.0 +4.5 +6.5 -- 11 11p 43. Wake Forest ACC 19-12 63.1 +9.6 -10.1 -- 11 10
Last I checked the bracketologists still have Wisconsin as a 6-seed, the top 6-seed in fact. We have the Badgers falling another line to a 9-seed as their loss to Purdue, while understandable, is their 8th in 11 outings. Yes we know they beat Marquette!
And Washington State's surge got derailed a bit with a home loss to rival Washington, of all teams. With Colorado up to a 10-seed after closing on a 6-game win streak, it appears that the Pac-12 will have three teams after all.
And get this: right now we have both Missouri Valley champs Drake up to a 9-seed (barely) and runner-up Indiana State holding on as an 11-seed. Winning three games boosted Drake's odds +20% (though now they don't need it) and going 2-1 in the tournament ended up a plus for the Sycamores as well. It's likely both teams will "slide" a bit as other major conference teams build up tournament wins, but right now it looks good—according to the Dance Chance. We'll see what the Committee thinks in a week.
Two teams went on wild rides this week. Florida beat Alabama 105-87, sending their odds up almost 18%, but then they lost to 9-22 Vandy, 78-77, plunging their odds 15%, but leaving them up a seed for the week! Wake Forest had an even wilder ride; down almost 20% from a home loss to 14-17 Georgia Tech, the home win over Clemson recovered half of that and kept the Deacons in our seedings. Most bracketologists disagree, it seems; this is going to be a very tough year, I think, to decide who is in and who is out.
3day 7day Seed Seed Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds %Chg %Chg 1-seed 3/10 3/03 44. Seton Hall BE 20-11 62.7 +6.2 +13.2 -- 11p 45. Pittsburgh ACC 21-10 62.0 +0.4 +7.2 -- 11p 11p 46. Ohio St. B10 19-12 58.1 +15.1 +16.2 -- 12p 47. Princeton Ivy 24-3 54.0 +11.4 +11.5 -- 12 12 48. Mississippi St. SEC 19-12 50.9 -17.7 -30.0 -- 12p 8 49. St. John's BE 19-12 48.0 +1.5 +3.9 -- 50. Texas A&M SEC 18-13 44.0 +20.6 +32.2 -- 51. James Madison SB 30-3 41.6 -0.1 +2.1 -- 12 12 52. Michigan St. B10 18-13 39.2 -16.5 -14.8 -- 12p 53. Grand Canyon WAC 27-4 38.0 +8.3 +9.5 -- 12 13 54. Providence BE 19-12 34.1 -1.7 +2.9 -- 55. Syracuse ACC 20-11 33.5 +0.3 +1.2 -- 56. Cincinnati B12 18-13 32.1 +13.6 +4.6 -- 57. Oregon P12 20-11 31.1 +10.7 +6.4 -- 58. Villanova BE 17-14 29.9 -5.7 -23.8 -- 12p
Speaking of who is in and who is out, we're at the dreaded Bubble. Who is in? Seton Hall. Who is out? Villanova. The Pirates beat the Wildcats and that's the difference here. Villanova had a chance against Creighton but lost by a bucket, and now they're going to need to win at least 2 games in the Big East tournament. Seton Hall probably needs a win, too, to be any semblance of safe.
Who is in? Ohio State. Who is out? Michigan State. Really?? It can't be. But here it is, and if other bracketologists disagree, then at least we can say that the Spartans are not safe if they lose in the first round. 18-14 would not be a good look. 18-13 is bad enough after the Spartans blew it at Indiana, their 4th loss in 5 games. Meanwhile the Buckeyes are on a roll, winning 4 straight including the win at East Lansing in late February. Last week they beat Michigan by 23 and Rutgers by 22.
Who is suddenly in trouble? Mississippi State. The Bulldogs look very solid—an 8-seed just a week ago!—but they lose their 3rd and 4th in a row at Texas A&M and at home vs. South Carolina (in overtime). From an 8-seed to Last Team In? The Aggies' win wasn't enough to put them in the seedings but they're in the First Four Out, up over 30% from a week ago due to beating both Mississippi teams last week. They're right behind St. John's, who found out that beating DePaul and Georgetown doesn't but a lot of good will, not enough to get over the damn hump!
Pittsburgh closed with two wins and it's good enough for us, though skeptics abound about the Panthers' chances. Syracuse lost at Clemson as expected and didn't move much, still outside looking in. Providence had the most predictable week—beating Georgetown, losing to UConn—so they too didn't gain ground. Cincinnati's week was more volatile as the Bearcats lost to Oklahoma in overtime, but crushed West Virginia at home 92-56 which was impressive enough to recover all their deficit and then some. But like Oregon they still need a hell of a tournament run; the Ducks lost to Colorado but beat Utah, a net positive for a team hovering around 30% odds.
The auto-bids here—Princeton, James Madison, Grand Canyon—will all need to finish the job and get the auto-bid. Even Princeton, who sneaks into the seedings for the first time in a few months. The Tigers jump over 10% not because they beat Penn but because they didn't lose to Penn, which would have sent them tumbling. The Dance Chance is now a snapshot rather than a projection, so what you see is what you get.
3day 7day Seed Seed Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds %Chg %Chg 1-seed 3/10 3/03 59. McNeese St. Slnd 28-3 28.0 -4.7 -3.2 -- 13 12 60. Iowa B10 18-13 27.1 -7.6 -8.3 -- 61. Utah P12 18-13 26.6 -11.0 -25.3 -- 62. Butler BE 18-13 25.9 +11.4 +12.4 -- 63. Virginia Tech ACC 18-13 25.8 -3.0 +5.0 -- 64. Memphis Amer 22-9 24.7 +4.2 +6.3 -- 65. Kansas St. B12 18-13 20.4 +17.0 +12.4 -- 66. Samford SC 28-5 17.3 +13.1 +7.0 -- 13 13 67. Richmond A10 23-8 13.7 -0.7 +3.5 -- 68. UNLV MWC 19-11 13.6 -0.2 +8.8 -- 69. Bradley MVC 22-11 12.5 +8.9 +8.0 -- 70. Appalachian St. SB 27-6 7.6 -4.0 -4.3 -- 71. Mississippi SEC 20-11 7.1 -10.1 -13.0 -- 72. UC Irvine BW 24-8 5.3 +5.1 +4.1 -- 13 13 73. San Francisco WCC 23-9 1.6 +1.6 +1.5 -- 74. South Florida Amer 23-6 <0.1 -0.1 -0.1 --
The lower bubble. Some big plunges here as teams lose hope and probably need to win their tournament to get in. Utah was above 50% in the Dance Chance (they were First Team Out) but a 1-2 punch of losing at Oregon State and Oregon pretty much means they won't be the 4th (or 3rd) Pac-12 team in the Big Dance. And Mississippi has been under the waterline all year, even when they were 15-1, so now at 20-11 it's no surprise that it's all but over for the Rebels following losses to Georgia and Texas A&M, who beat them in Oxford 86-60 and is their first SEC tourney foe (bummer). Iowa was surging for a while but lost to Illinois and now faces uber-surging Ohio State in the Big Ten first round.
Some teams, however, have renewed hope that 2-3 wins can put them on the cusp of a bid. Butler beat DePaul and Xavier, breaking a 5-game skid. They face Xavier again, and this time it's not at home, so Big East tourney wins won't come easy. And Kansas State was also left for dead until they beat Iowa State 65-58. In their case, three wins (and a loss) might be enough to get a bid as there are no easy opponents in the Big Twelve; the Wildcats face Texas first on Wednesday.
Bradley increased their stock a bit by beating Illinois-Chicago before falling to Drake, but that's all she wrote; the Braves are unlikely to get much Committee attention. But UNLV, who shares similar odds at the moment, is truly surging, winning 9 of their last 11. They face San Diego State first, then probably Utah State before the Mountain West finals. It's almost too bad they got a bye since going 2-1 in a tournament isn't going to get them an at-large in such a crowded conference; it's win it all or NIT for the Rebels.
And as usual we close with South Florida, the team that could break the Dance Chance. Their loss to Tulsa put them under 0.1% odds for an at-large, while for most they're a 50/50 proposition. There are always going to be outliers but they should not lie out this much! They have a #63 SOR (the metric everyone is talking about) not too far above their #75 Success rank (which the Dance Chance uses) and they're #78 in the NET which is lower than we show them here (#74). It's another case where getting a bye might hurt their at-large odds, though they'll trade that for having better odds of winning the tournament. They were so dominant in the ACC during the regular season they should be shooting for that anyway. Then we might have to talk about Florida Atlantic!
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