People have been making the comparison between UConn of 2024 and Florida 2007, saying the Huskies have the best chance to repeat since that Florida team. Well, that's true by definition, since no team has repeated since Florida of 2007 and UConn has a chance to. But is that the correct team to compare them to?
And what of Iowa State's 28-point blowout of #1 Houston? The comparison made there has been UCLA's 32-point blowout of #1 Houston in 1968. Is that what we should be referencing, a game from 56 years ago?
UConn 2024 = Florida 2007 or Villanova 2017?
Starting with the Huskies, who just rose to #1 on KenPom, let's look at not just 2007 Florida but all the teams since then who tried to repeat and whether some of them might be more applicable.
Year Team Rec Seed Kenpom NCAA finish 2007 Florida 29-5 1-seed* #3 won NCAA 2011 Duke 30-4 1-seed #2 Sweet 16 2014 Louisville 29-5 4-seed #1 Sweet 16 2017 Villanova 31-3 1-seed* #2 Round of 32 2022 Baylor 26-6 1-seed #4 Round of 32 2023 Kansas 27-7 1-seed #9 Round of 32 2024 UConn 31-3, 1-seed* #1 ???
Since Florida of 2007, 4 defending champs have nabbed a 1-seed, putting them in an elite group trying to repeat. We also include 2014 Louisville because they were #1 on Kenpom, even though they only got a crazy 4-seed.
The comparison to Florida is pretty well-deserved, as the Gators were the overall 1-seed (we're assuming that's the case with UConn). They were only #3 on KenPom. They had all five starters back, though, as we've pointed out in a prior article.
This is why we think the better comparison is with 2017 Villanova. Also the overall 1-seed, they even share UConn's 31-3 record and Big East tournament win. They returned 3 starters (UConn returns 2), and improved on the previous year's record. They looked set to repeat! But they lost in the Round of 32.
Recent years haven't been kind to 1-seed defending champs, and none since Florida has made it past the Sweet Sixteen. Will UConn break the streak?
Houston 2024 = Houston 1968 or St. Joe's 2004?
Now Houston. And Iowa State.
I don't think you have equate Houston 2024 to Houston 1968. Or Houston 1983, or any other Houston team except the recent Cougars.
And Iowa State certainly isn't UCLA with Lew Alcindor.
The game that comes to mind for me is Xavier beating St. Joe's 87-67, when St. Joe's was #1 and undefeated. It was the most lopsided win by an unranked team over a #1 team ever, and it was much worse than the final score. Xavier led by 37 points at one time. It was the kind of beatdown that causes a reckoning, the kind people are saying Houston needs after such an extreme loss.
So what happened to St. Joe's in the NCAA tournament? And Xavier?
1-seed St. Joe's had a decent run, getting to the Elite Eight before losing by two to Oklahoma State.
Xavier also had a good run as a 7-seed, beating 10-seed Louisville, 2-seed Mississippi State, and 3-seed Texas before falling to 1-seed Duke in the Elite Eight.
So that's not such a bad outcome—for either team. Unless getting to the Final Four and/or winning it all is your do-or-die goal, in which case the Elite Eight is probably a disappointment. Houston would probably see the Elite Eight as moderately disappointing after this season, while Iowa State fans would be pretty happy—but might want more now.
Comments