No one is addressing the possibility that Florida Atlantic might miss the tournament after losing to Temple. Yes, we know that the consensus says FAU is in the tournament, but they might be closer to the cut line than people think, and they just added a loss to a 16-19 team.
Last year's FAU was 31-3 and got a 9-seed. This year's team is 25-8. Can a team take 5 extra losses and still get an 11-seed?
Probably a team can, if they got to the Final Four the previous year. If not for that, I don't think they make it.
So the bubble probably does shrink, and FAU might get the same 9-seed at 25-8 that they got at 31-3, but I think they might get a 10- or 11-seed—maybe even have to play-in.
But according to the Dance Chance, the Owls aren't going to make it.
We're disagreeing a lot more this year with the consensus than ever before...which makes me think the Committee is also going to conflict with the consensus a lot. The bubble is extremely hard to pick this year. There are going to be some surprises!
Coming up tonight: the real bubble-buster games: Oregon vs. Colorado, and NC State vs. UNC. Colorado and UNC are in for sure—I think!—so wins by the Ducks and the Wolfpack would make the already-shrinking bubble even smaller.
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