Here's every relevant at-large candidate and what (probably) happens if they Lose, win 1 game, win 2 games, or win 3 games, all without winning their conference. I've made many assumptions on which teams will be the next opponent, obviously.
The Atlantic 10
| Rank | Conf | Team | Curr% | Opp 1 | Lose | Win 1 | Opp 2 | Win 2 | Opp 3 | Win 3 |
| 33 | Atl 10 | Dayton | 81% | Duquesne | 73% | 73% | Loyola-Chi | 77% | Richmond | 100% |
| 70 | Atl 10 | Richmond | 7% | GMason | 5% | 5% | UMass | 13% | Dayton | 100% |
I'll start with Dayton since they should be in no matter what, and it turns out their odds are the same whether they lose right away to Duquesne or beat them then lose to Chicago—they're pretty much still in the tournament. Even if they win two games and lose in the final not much changes, and the Flyers odds (and seed) decrease from where they are now! Only winning the tournament is of a net benefit. Richmond has the next best chance of getting an at-large and it's not much; losing the first game and going 1-1 both don't make things any better, they have to beat Dayton or their odds are very slim (according to the Dance Chance at least)
American Athletic
| Rank | Conf | Team | Curr% | Opp 1 | Lose | Win 1 | Opp 2 | Win 2 | Opp 3 | Win 3 | Opp 4 | Win 4 |
| 39 | Amer | Florida Atl | 69% | N Texas | 57% | 63% | SMU | 67% | USF | 100% | ||
| 64 | Amer | Memphis | 19% | Wichita St | 9% | 15% | UAB | 19% | USF | 21% | FAU | 100% |
| 74 | Amer | USF | <0.1 | E Carolina | <0.1 | <0.1 | Memphis | 1% | FAU | 100% |
Florida Atlantic is in good shape but if they lose their first game it's a bit dicey. Even going 1-1 probably dings their seed a bit, and going 2-1 puts them about even with where they are right now, which is pretty safe but not 100% safe. Memphis needs to win two games to have even the slim odds they have right now, and any more than that and they win the league. So it's either win it all or have very little hope, but as long as they win their first game they still have some hope. South Florida is a true wild card, but we'll just address them as our formula sees them: even if they get to the final and lose they have almost no chance.
The ACC:
| Rank | Conf | Team | Curr% | Opp 1 | Lose | Win 1 | Opp 2 | Win 2 | Opp 3 | Win 3 | Opp 4 | Win 4 |
| 42 | ACC | Virginia | 63% | Clemson | 59% | 65% | Duke | 71% | UNC | 100% | ||
| 44 | ACC | Wake Forest | 59% | ND | 49% | 57% | Pitt | 69% | UNC | 87% | Duke | 100% |
| 45 | ACC | Pittsburgh | 57% | Wake | 55% | 59% | UNC | 75% | Duke | 100% | ||
| 54 | ACC | Syracuse | 39% | NC State | 21% | 33% | Duke | 47% | Clemson | 53% | UNC | 100% |
| 61 | ACC | Virginia Tech | 25% | FSU | 15% | 25% | UNC | 51% | Wake | 57% | Duke | 100% |
Lots of teams here concentrated around the cut line. Virginia is probably in even if they lose right away, and they make only incremental progress in certainty until winning it all puts them at 100%. We see Wake Forest as in better shape than most do, and even if they lose to Notre Dame they're almost a 50/50 shot. A win over the Irish probably puts them in, but certainly a win over Pitt does, and if they win three games and lose to Duke they're in great shape. As for Pittsburgh themselves, a loss to Wake doesn't seem to change their odds much at all, nor does a win over the Deacons help a lot. Beat North Carolina probably seals it, so they have to get to the finals to feel secure.
Syracuse doesn't benefit enough from beating NC State to offset a loss to Duke, and even beating the Blue Devils only puts them right on the bubble! And even an extra win—three wins in the tournament—just puts them on the right side of the bubble at approximately 53%. The Orange aren't safe unless they win the tournament; at 2 wins or 3 they're a big question mark. Virginia Tech is the same, beating North Carolina gets them on the bubble but even another win over Wake doesn't seal the deal.
The Big Ten:
| Rank | Conf | Team | Curr% | Opp 1 | Lose | Win 1 | Opp 2 | Win 2 | Opp 3 | Win 3 | Opp 4 | Win 4 |
| 38 | Big 10 | N'western | 71% | Wisconsin | 67% | 71% | Purdue | 85% | Illinois | 100% | ||
| 46 | Big 10 | Ohio St. | 55% | Iowa | 47% | 55% | Illinois | 65% | Nebraska | 69% | Purdue | 100% |
| 53 | Big 10 | Mich St. | 41% | at Minn | 35% | 41% | Purdue | 73% | Wisconsin | 93% | Illinois | 100% |
| 62 | Big 10 | Iowa | 23% | Ohio St. | 11% | 25% | Illinois | 39% | Nebraska | 55% | Purdue | 100% |
Northwestern starts in good shape, and even losing to Wisconsin barely hurts them. But beating the Badgers and losing to Purdue doesn't help their seed any. Beating Purdue, of course, helps a lot. Now, we have Ohio State in the field right now which is not a popular sentiment, but bear with us. If they lose to Iowa, they're probably out, go 1-1 and they're right where they are now, which might not be enough. Beating Illinois helps a little, Nebraska (or whoever they face), a bit more, but they Buckeyes never make a big leap to safety until they win the whole thing.
Same thing with Michigan State; most people have them fairly safe, we don't, and a win over Minnesota doesn't quite do it—they need to beat Purdue in game two. After that it's just a matter of seeding. Iowa is a pretty long shot right now and a loss pretty much kills them, while a win over Ohio State just has them treading water. Beating Illinois gets them close, but only after three wins do they seem to be in the field, but still not quite safe.
The Big Twelve:
| Rank | Conf | Team | Curr% | Opp 1 | Lose | Win 1 | Opp 2 | Win 2 | Opp 3 | Win 3 | Opp 4 | Win 4 |
| 40 | Big 12 | Oklahoma | 67% | TCU | 57% | 71% | Houston | 97% | Tx Tech | 99.9% | Iowa St | 100% |
| 52 | Big 12 | Cincinnati | 43% | Kansas | 27% | 53% | Baylor | 73% | Iowa St | 91% | Houston | 100% |
| 66 | Big 12 | Kansas St | 15% | Texas | 11% | 31% | Iowa St | 47% | Baylor | 65% | Houston | 100% |
| 73 | Big 12 | UCF | 1% | BYU | <0.1% | 1% | Tx Tech | 17% | Houston | 51% | Iowa St | 100% |
Oklahoma is in the best shape here, but losing to TCU adds some doubt. Beating the Horned Frogs helps a little, and obviously if they win the next game over Houston they're in for sure. Cincinnati has already won a game, beating West Virginia, putting them near the field, and the Kansas game might be the make or break, but they'll have to beat Baylor to be safe. Kansas State is 18-13 and not in good shape at all; even beating Texas doesn't put them very close. Even beating Iowa State just puts them in play at 47%. The Wildcats really have some work to do, but nothing compared to Central Florida whose odds remain negligible even if they upset BYU, and only three wins—including beating Houston—puts them at around 50/50! (they already lost to BYU today anyway)
The Big East:
| Rank | Conf | Team | Curr% | Opp 1 | Lose | Win 1 | Opp 2 | Win 2 | Opp 3 | Win 3 | Opp 4 | Win 4 |
| 43 | Big East | Seton Hall | 61% | St. John's | 59% | 63% | UConn | 83% | Creighton | 100% | ||
| 49 | Big East | St. John's | 49% | Seton Hall | 41% | 49% | UConn | 73% | Creighton | 100% | ||
| 56 | Big East | Providence | 35% | GTown | 11% | 35% | Creighton | 47% | Marquette | 59% | UConn | 100% |
| 60 | Big East | Villanova | 27% | DePaul | 5% | 27% | Marquette | 47% | Creighton | 57% | UConn | 100% |
| 63 | Big East | Butler | 21% | Xavier | 11% | 19% | UConn | 51% | Seton Hall | 65% | Creighton | 100% |
Seton Hall is probably ok if they lose to St. John's but they aren't safe even if they win; they need to beat UConn for that. As for the Red Storm, beating Seton Hall keeps them right where they are now—basically 50/50. Providence is a bit lower down the line and beating Georgetown doesn't help—but a loss would kill them. Even beating Creighton doesn't quite get them a bid but they'd be close. Same with Villanova: beating DePaul does nothing, losing demolishes their odds, and beating Marquette doesn't seal it. Even winning three games doesn't make the Wildcats secure, but they probably don't need to beat UConn to get a bid.
The Mountain West:
| Rank | Conf | Team | Curr% | Opp 1 | Lose | Win 1 | Opp 2 | Win 2 | Opp 3 | Win 3 |
| 67 | Mtn West | UNLV | 13% | SDSU | 5% | 13% | Utah St. | 39% | Nevada | 100% |
We don't have New Mexico in any trouble, so it's just long-shot UNLV to cover. And the Rebels play San Diego State first, which is bad because a win doesn't help much at all! Even two wins just puts them on the bubble, and if they're Mountain West team #7, they're not getting an at-large.
The Pac-12:
| Rank | Conf | Team | Curr% | Opp 1 | Lose | Win 1 | Opp 2 | Win 2 | Opp 3 | Win 3 | Opp 4 | Win 4 |
| 37 | Pac-12 | Colorado | 73% | Utah | 67% | 73% | Wash St | 83% | Arizona | 100% | ||
| 58 | Pac-12 | Utah | 31% | Ariz St | 15% | 21% | Colorado | 43% | Wash St | 51% | Arizona | 100% |
| 59 | Pac-12 | Oregon | 29% | UCLA | 21% | 33% | Arizona | 39% | Wash St | 100% |
Here, we have one team in good shape and two long shots. Colorado probably plays Utah first, and even losing that one we see the Buffs still pretty safe. A win there gives them pretty decent security; it likely helps that they are only the 3rd pick from the Pac-12. Utah takes on Arizona State before Colorado and beating the Sun Devils does nothing to offset a follow-up loss to the Buffs. Even beating Colorado doesn't put the Utes in, and three wins still just barely tips them over the top! It might come down to how well they play Arizona—assuming they come up short there—as to whether they get an at-large bid. Oregon is in much the same boat, to the point that even beating Arizona only puts the Ducks on the bubble. It's looking very likely the Pac-12 has just three bids.
The SEC:
| Rank | Conf | Team | Curr% | Opp 1 | Lose | Win 1 | Opp 2 | Win 2 | Opp 3 | Win 3 | Opp 4 | Win 4 |
| 48 | SEC | Miss. State | 51% | LSU | 45% | 53% | at Tenn | 75% | Auburn | 81% | Alabama | 100% |
| 51 | SEC | Texas A&M | 45% | Ole Miss | 35% | 45% | Kentucky | 53% | Alabama | 69% | Tenn | 100% |
| 71 | SEC | Mississippi | 5% | Texas A&M | 5% | 9% | Kentucky | 19% | Alabama | 45% | Tenn | 100% |
We have Mississippi State as the Last Team In right now, and playing LSU can really only hurt them. They need to beat Tennessee to really move the needle from 50/50. Texas A&M and Mississippi play each other, and the winner is hardly helped at all. Beating Kentucky would put A&M just over the top—still not safe—and put Ole Miss back on the radar at least. A followup win vs. Alabama would make the Aggies pretty safe, and would really boost Mississippi's odds to near 50/50, assuming a loss to Tennessee.
The rest:
| Rank | Conf | Team | Curr% | Opp 1 | Lose | Win 1 | Opp 2 | Win 2 |
| 47 | Ivy | Princeton | 53% | Penn | 27% | 27% | Columbia | 100% |
| 55 | WAC | Grand Canyon | 37% | Seattle | 27% | 31% | Tarleton St | 100% |
| 57 | Southland | McNeese St. | 33% | Nicholls | 15% | 100% | ||
| 72 | Big West | UC Irvine | 3% | Long Beach | 1% | 1% | UC Davis | 100% |
Princeton is just over the waterline right now, but it's do or die in the Ivy League tournament. Lose to Penn—or beat Penn and lose the next game—and they sink to 27% from 53%. Win both games and the percentage is moot.
Grand Canyon is 27-4, and whether they get the 5th loss immediately or following a win hardly matters. They'd still have a chance—why not, at 27-5 or 28-5?—but probably would not make it.
In the Southland McNeese State has one more game to go: Nicholls State. They're 29-4 if they lose which should garner some consideration but it won't be much. They have to win.
And finally, UC Irvine still registers on our at-large odds, but if they lose in their tournament at any time that falls to a token 1%. They're either at 100% or at 1%, there is no in-between. They would have 9 losses at that point so even 1% seems excessive.
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