All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Marquette Golden Eagles
Seed: 2
Record: 27-9
Conference: Big East
vs.
NC State Wolfpacl
Seed: 11
Record: 24-14
Conference: ACC
Date: Friday, March 29
Time: 7:09pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Dallas, TX
Channel: CBS
Don't look now but the ACC has four teams in the Sweet Sixteen. The Big East has three, but they were all seeded to get there.
Marquette NC State
Power Ratings
Strength: #15 Strength: #58
Median: #10 Median: #69
Markov: #11 Markov: #35
Pomeroy: #13 Pomeroy: #53
Offense: #19 Offense: #42
Defense: #21 Defense: #75
BPI: #13 BPI: #48
LRMC: #10 LRMC: #50
Other Measures:
Tempo: #9 Tempo: #106
Consistency: #137 Consistency: #39
2nd half season: #12 2nd half season: #49
Last 6: #24 Last 6: #13
Marquette has the clear edge here metric-wise but they have to overcome NC State's incredible surge. The full-year figures show quite a gulf, with the Golden Eagles having a big advantage either with the ball or defending the goal. But look at just the last six games for NC State and they're at Marquette's level. Meanwhile Marquette's Last 6 games looks like a concern but they were missing Tyler Kolek for the games before the tournament. Still, with NC State's recent surge this is a roughly even game.
What's interesting is that NC State is still one of the most consistent teams in the country, despite their recent surge. Their last 6 games consist of four well-above-average performances and two overtime wins. Lose either of those overtime games and they aren't here.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): @(3)Illinois+7, =(4)Kansas+14, (7)Texas+21, (3)Creighton+5, =(15)Western Kentucky+18, =(10)Colorado+4
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): @(3)Illinois+7, (3)Creighton+5
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =(1)Purdue-3, @(5)Wisconsin-11, @(1)Connecticut-28, @(3)Creighton-14, (1)Connecticut-7, =(1)Connecticut-16
- Other losses (3): @Providence-15, @Seton Hall-3, Butler-7
Overview: Marquette ended up with the #6 Strength of Schedule but only played 10 games against tournament teams. Blame the Selection Committee for excluding so many Big East teams for that. They beat 3-seed Illinois and 4-seed Kansas in the first five games of the year, then lost to Big Ten teams Wisconsin and Purdue. The latter was their first shot at beating a 1-seed; they got three more attempts vs. UConn and ended up 0-4.
The Eagles finished with a dismal 3-3 run, but 2nd-leading scorer Tyler Kolek (15.0ppg) missed all those games. Kam Jones is the #1 scorer for the Eagles with 16.8; both he and Kolek shoot over 40% from the 3-point line. Jones led with 28 in the first round win over Western Kentucky. Kolek had 21 against Colorado, shooting 10 of 14 from the floor.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): (10)Virginia+16, @(6)Clemson+1, =(4)Duke+5, =(10)Virginia+OT, =(1)North Carolina+8, =(6)Texas Tech+13, =(14)Oakland+OT
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): @(6)Clemson+1, =(4)Duke+5, =(1)North Carolina+8
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =(6)BYU-9, =(2)Tennessee-9, (1)North Carolina-13, @(10)Virginia-OT, @(1)North Carolina-9, (4)Duke-15
- Other losses (8): @Mississippi-20, Virginia Tech-6, @Syracuse-12, Pittsburgh-3, @Wake Forest-4, Syracuse-4, @Florida St.-7, @Pittsburgh-8
Overview: NC State was a good team all year—good, not great, and not really threatening to most teams. They played a really easy non-conference schedule and lost to all the decent teams they faced (BYU, Ole Miss, Tennessee). They picked up early ACC wins over B.C. and Virginia, though, so in conference play they looked like a potential thorn. For the most part they continued to lose to good teams, culminating in a 4-game skid at the end that destroyed any hope they had of an at-large bid. So instead, they suddenly became a great team and beat Louisville, Syracuse, 4-seed Duke, 10-seed Virginia, and 1-seed North Carolina in a five day span. It's not quite like UConn of 2009 (who won 5 straight to win the Big East, beating a 6-seed, 1-seed, 3-seed, and 4-seed along the way) but it's pretty close. So while we don't expect a national title out of the Wolfpack, history suggests there could be more good things to come. NC State a win over each of the other Sweet Sixteen ACC teams.
DJ Horne leads four starters in double figures for the 'Pack, but against Texas Tech it was reserve Ben Middlebrooks leading with 21 points; he made 6 of 8 shots and 9 of 10 free throws. In the 79-73 overtime thriller vs. Oakland it was big man DJ Burns leading the way with 24 on 9 of 12 shooting.
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Game Analysis: When will NC State come back down to earth? Ever? Or are they following 2011 UConn's path to a championship—win five games in a tournament, then run the table at the Big Dance? That would really be something for an 11-seed.
For Marquette, getting past the first round means that the players that were injured and returned have more time to get back to 100%. Kolek, of course, missed several games but starters Stevie Mitchell and Oso Ighodaro battled injuries near the end of the regular season. Five days off should make a big difference.
Marquette shoots the ball very well and should have a great day vs. NC State's defense. They don't rebound well on offense at all, but the Wolfpack aren't a good rebounding team either. The Eagles protect the ball well but don't get many free throw chances at all.
When NC State has the ball, it's the Wolfpack's mediocre shooting vs. Marquette's mediocre defending. Marquette's defense loves to cause turnovers but NC State protects the ball really well. They aren't great at either the 3-point or 2-point shot, nor do they rebound well, but they still have the rebounding edge on Marquette here, too, so they could get some 2nd chances they don't usually get.
Regardless of NC State's recent surge it's hard to look past the field goal percentages. It's not like the Wolfpack have that big of a rebounding edge either. They aren't a good rebounding team, that's just Marquette's weakness. To pick NC State you have to believe that their surge is continuing. The Oakland overtime win was their worst performance in their last 8 games, however.
Vegas Line:
Marquette by 6 1/2
Power rating: spread
Marquette by 7.5
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Marquette: 71.9%
NC State: 28.1%
Pretty solid agreement, as usual, between Vegas and Strength. Marquette's 70-ish percent odds are lower than the historical odds of the rare 2-seed vs. 11-seed matchup, where 2-seeds are 14-4 (78%). If we look at just NC State's recent surge, the odds flip to 70% in the Wolfpack's favor as a 3-point favorite.
Bottom line: I had NC State getting to the Sweet Sixteen but not the Elite Eight; few people are surprised that their ACC tournament momentum carried into the tournament. But this is where I had their run ending, and I'm sticking with Marquette.
Final prediction: Marquette 80, NC State 70
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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