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Iowa State Cyclones
Seed: 2
Record: 29-7
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Seed: 3
Record: 28-8
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Thursday, March 28
Time: 10:09pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Boston, MA
Channel: TBS/truTV
Want to see the nation's #1 offense against the #1 defense? UConn or Purdue vs. Houston? Nope, it's when Illinois has the ball vs. Iowa State.
Iowa State Illinois
Power Ratings
Strength: #6 Strength: #11
Median: #7 Median: #15
Markov: #8 Markov: #9
Pomeroy: #7 Pomeroy: #10
Offense: #49 Offense: #1
Defense: #1 Defense: #92
BPI: #6 BPI: #11
LRMC: #6 LRMC: #9
Other Measures:
Tempo (Offense): #153 Tempo (Offense): #161
Consistency: #257 Consistency: #12
2nd half season: #6 2nd half season: #13
Last 6: #2 Last 6: #8
A very good 2-vs.3-seed game. Iowa State has the edge in Strength and BPI by 5 spots and in Pomeroy and LRMC by 3 spots. They're farther apart by Median and very close by Markov. But the interesting comparison is Illinois' on offense vs. Iowa State's defense—both #1 in the nation. When Illinois has the ball, this is a national-title level game. When Iowa State has the ball it looks like a first round game, maybe a 5-seed vs. a 12-seed. But it might be where Iowa State wins the game.
Both teams play moderate tempo on offense, and we've noted Illinois' consistency before. Both teams have upped their games, as have most Sweet Sixteen teams, but Iowa State is #2 thanks mostly to their big win over Houston at the end of the regular season. With peak games excluded, Iowa State is #5 and Illinois #6 over the last six, so it's a close one.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (12): (16)Grambling St.+55, (1)Houston+4, @(9)TCU+1, (4)Kansas+4, @(7)Texas+5, (9)TCU+12, (6)Texas Tech+8, (6)BYU+5, =(3)Baylor+14, =(1)Houston+28, =(15)South Dakota St.+17, =(7)Washington St.+9
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2):(1)Houston+4, =(1)Houston+28
- Losses to tournament teams (4): =(9)Texas A&M-4, @(6)BYU-15, @(3)Baylor-2, @(1)Houston-8
- Other losses (3): =Virginia Tech-9, @Oklahoma-8, @Kansas St.-7
Overview: Iowa State demonstrated elite defense from the start, the question was would their offense catch up at all? It didn't but that's because their defense went to #1 on Kenpom. They were blowing out overmatched opponents early in the season but when they handed Houston its first loss, people started to wake up to the Cyclones. Still, they went back to sleep until the final wake up call: Iowa State 69, Houston 41, a literal off-the-charts performance. Their wins over Houston are their only Sweet Sixteen wins upon reaching that level themselves.
So what does this mean? I've been comparing it to Xavier's beatdown of #1 St. Joe's in 2004. Xavier ended up feeding off the game and made it to the Elite Eight as a 7-seed. Iowa State is obviously still capable of breakdowns on offense that lead to bad losses (like Kansas State recently). And cockiness might become an issue. Iowa State has a history of losing as a high seed. Though clearly known for their defense, Iowa State has four starters in double figures led by Keshon Gilbert's 13.8ppg. Forward Milan Momcilovic led with 19 against South Dakota State. Point Tamin Lipsey led the 'Clones against Washington State with 15.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): (14)Oakland+11, =(8)Florida Atlantic+9, (14)Colgate+17, (9)Northwestern+30, (9)Michigan St.+3, (8)Nebraska+OT, @(5)Wisconsin+8, =(8)Nebraska+11, =(5)Wisconsin+6, =(14)Morehead St.+16, =(11)Duquesne+16
- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (6): (2)Marquette-7, @(2)Tennessee-7, @(1)Purdue-5, @(9)Northwestern-OT, @(9)Michigan St.-8, (1)Purdue-6
- Other losses (2): Maryland-9, @Penn St.-1
Overview: How is this for a chart? Doesn't that just say, #11 in the nation in consistency? It's like a picket fence. A few aberrations, yes—like the 104-71 win over Fairleigh Dickinson which causes a spike in game 13, and the game 16 loss to Maryland at home, one of only two to non-tournament teams this year for the Illini. This is the chart of team that is consistent enough to not have a dud game kick them out of the tournament early. They've proven that now by reaching the Sweet Sixteen, but they haven't beaten another Sweet Sixteen team.
Illinois is great on offense, but not nearly as great on the other side of the court. Four players average in double figures led by Terrence Shannon's 23.0 ppg. He had 26 against Morehead State in the opener and 30 against Duquesne in the 2nd round.
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Game Analysis: Iowa State's defense is certainly elite, but they are tasked with stopping the Illinois offense led by Terrence Shannon, who is on fire lately.
Are there any mismatches or advantages when Illinois has the ball? The Illini shoot the ball about as well as the Cyclones defend, though they have a slight advantage on 2-point shots (where Shannon hits 59%). Illinois should also get quite a few 2nd shots as they rebound well and ISU doesn't here. Illinois will get to the line a lot too, where they shoot 74.4%. Iowa State loves to create turnovers and while Illinois is solid at ball control, the Cyclones are #2 in steals. Iowa State allows teams oportunities to shoot the three; if the Illini get hot there they have a big advantage.
If that side of the court is a draw between elite teams, the other side is a sloppier affair where Iowa State ought to have the edge. Illinois' defense creates few if any turnovers and doesn't defend the 3-point line well. Other than that they aren't bad, while the Iowa State offense is good-but-not-great at shooting and rebounding.
As far as Terrence Shannon goes, Iowa State has to play team defense rather than focus on him. Their defense is #1 not from shutting down key players but by playing a team-oriented, confusing defensive style that throws teams off their game. Shannon's job is to ignore that and do what he's been doing.
Vegas Line:
Iowa St. by 1 1/2
Power rating: spread
Iowa St. by 2.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Iowa State: 56.3%
Illinois.: 43.7%
2-seeds beat 3-seeds about 62% of the time, so by that measure this is an extra-close game. Also the #1 vs. #1 matchup is a signal of how close it can be. The line also reflects this.
Bottom line: It stands to reason the Cyclones have the edge on offense, and the other side is a draw. You can pick Illinois too, citing Shannon's play, but as a team Illinois is probably satisfied with their Sweet Sixteen appearance, their first in 20 years. Iowa State wants more.
Final prediction: Iowa State 77, Illinois 75
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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