All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Arizona Wildcats
Seed: 2
Record: 27-8
Conference: Pac-12
vs.
Clemson Tigers
Seed: 6
Record: 23-11
Conference: ACC
Date: Thurday, March 28
Time: 7:09pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Channel: CBS
Arizona is very unpredictable, and lately Clemson is outdoing them in that arena.
Arizona Clemson
Power Ratings
Strength: #4 Strength: #23
Median: #2 Median: #18
Markov: #5 Markov: #16
Pomeroy: #5 Pomeroy: #23
Offense: #9 Offense: #24
Defense: #10 Defense: #38
BPI: #4 BPI: #23
LRMC: #3 LRMC: #35
Other Measures:
Tempo (Offense): #8 Tempo (Offense): #169
Consistency: #360 Consistency: #299
2nd half season: #8 2nd half season: #24
Last 6: #19 Last 6: #41
6-seed Clemson is one of the lowest seeds left in this very "chalky" Sweet Sixteen, and they're a reasonable 6-seed at #23 in Strength, Pomeroy, and BPI, but that's after two wins. Arizona is a very strong 2-seed so they're in the top 5 in all the power ratings, including #2 in Median performance, and more importantly are top ten on both offense and defense, giving the Tigers no advantage on either side of the court despite having good metrics themselves.
Arizona plays a very fast offensive tempo while Clemson is almost exactly average. Neither team is consistent, especially Arizona who is the 3rd least consistent team in the country. Neither team has played well over the last 6 games, but that's mostly a reflection of their volatility. Both teams have a couple of their worst performances in the last 6 games sample; the Wildcats have recovered to play at about their average since then, while Clemson followed their worst game with their best 2-game stretch of the season.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): @(4)Duke+5, =(9)Michigan St.+6, (14)Colgate+27, (5)Wisconsin+25, (4)Alabama+13, (10)Colorado+47, @(11)Oregon+9, @(10)Colorado+20, (11)Oregon+20, =(15)Long Beach St.+20, =(7)Dayton+10
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): @(4)Duke+5, (4)Alabama+13
- Losses to tournament teams (5): @(1)Purdue-8, =(8)Florida Atlantic-OT, @(7)Washington St.-3, (7)Washington St.-3, =(11)Oregon-8
- Other losses (3): @Stanford-18, @Oregon St.-3, @USC-13
Overview: Arizona started out like gangbusters, beating Duke and Michigan State, then adding Wisconsin and Alabama to their skins list while playing well in lossses to 1-seed Purdue and last year's Final Four team Florida Atlantic. Just 11 games in and the Wildcats had played more good teams than most do in a whole season! But then the erratic play started, as they lost to Stanford 100-81. Of course they followed that by beating Colorado and Utah by a combined 46 points. When they won it was fantastic, but the surprise losses—to Oregon State, twice to Washington State—added up despite continued huge margins when they won. Their last three games tells the whole story: a 78-65 loss to USC, then a 70-49 win over USC, and a 67-59 loss to Oregon.
Arizona plays fast on offense and shoots the three well but not excessively; they have four players in double figures led by UNC transfer Caleb Love's 18.1ppg. Arizona's first round game saw the "good" version of the team, maybe not great, but they avoided the "dud" game in beating Long Beach State; Kylan Boswell led with 20 points with all five starters in double figures. Love then led with 19 against Dayton.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(12)UAB+1, (10)Boise St.+17, @(4)Alabama+8, (6)South Carolina+5, =(9)TCU+8, @(1)North Carolina+4, =(11)New Mexico+21, =(3)Baylor+8
- Losses to tournament teams (4): (1)North Carolina-10, @(4)Duke-1, (10)Virginia-1, (11)N.C. State-1
- Other losses (7): @Memphis-2, @Miami FL-13, @Virginia Tech-15, Georgia Tech-OT, @Notre Dame-7, @Wake Forest-5, =Boston College-21
Overview: Clemson started 9-0 with wins over 12-seed UAB, 10-seed Boise State, 4-seed Alabama, almost-seeded Pitt, 6-seed South Carolina, and 9-seed TCU. In nine games! But they lost 7 of their next 12 games and their only other tourney-team win was when they beat 1-seed North Carolina 80-76 in Chapel Hill. In fact, that was their only win over a top 70 Pomeroy team other than Pitt in the calendar year 2024. They basically beat up on the bad ACC teams and lost to the good ones. Good thing they had that pre-conference schedule!
The Tigers are led on offense by center PJ Hall who scores 18.8 points per game and is 2nd on the team with 6.7 rebounds. It was Chase Hunter who spearheaded the win over New Mexico with his 21 points; he did the same with 20 in the upset win over Baylor.
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Game Analysis: Clemson has played its very best back-to-back games of the season. Meanwhile Arizona is playing roughly at their average. If this trend continues Clemson wins by 10 points.
But neither team is one to continued trends. Upside surprises and downside shocks are common for both, but especially Arizona so it's hard to see them playing so consistently for much longer. Clemson hasn't had three great games in a row all season; the closest they came was in February when they beat North Carolina on the road 80-76, then won at Syracuse 77-69, and beat Miami at home 77-60. I'd expect Clemson's next effort to be of a lower quality, while Arizona's next step should be much better or much worse. How much worse Clemson does, and what Arizona does, will determine the winner.
The matchup can tell us what to expect. Clemson shoots about as well as Arizona defends, on both 2s and 3s, but they'll need to hit their shots as they won't get a lot of the rebounds. They're also vulnerable to steals and Arizona is good at takeaways.
The Wildcats don't have to worry much about turnovers and should compete well for rebounds on offense. Clemson's D is solid against 2-pointers but weak against the 3 which is where Arizona excels—though they usually shoot the 2.
Overall the edge on both sides goes to Arizona, which is what you'd get from the efficiency stats. Can Clemson's fantastic (79%) free throw shooting close the gap? Maybe, but Arizona rarely fouls and the Tigers don't get to the line very often, a bad combination. Still, if the game is close the Tigers have a solid edge from the line.
The height matchups will be very interesting. Clemson has very tall forwards (6-8, 6-10) against shorter Wildcat forwards (6-6, 6-7), while 6-10 Tiger center PJ Hall will be up against a couple of 7-footers including Oumar Ballo who averages 10 rebounds per game.
Vegas Line:
Arizona by 7 1/2
Power rating: spread
Arizona by 8.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Arizona: 69.6%
Clemson: 30.4%
Arizona is a moderate favorite here as expected. 2-seeds do very well against 6-seeds, winning about 80% of the time; Arizona's lower odds shows how erratic they (and Clemson) are, since Arizona is a very good 2-seed.
Bottom line: Clemson should come back down to earth. If they don't, they'll reach the Elite Eight, but I think they will cool off a bit. Arizona has to avoid having a dud game themselves, however.
Final prediction: Arizona 81, Clemson 73
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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