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UConn Huskies
Seed: 1
Record: 33-3
Conference: Big East
vs.
San Diego State Aztecs
Seed: 5
Record: 26-10
Conference: Mountain West
Date: Thursday, March 28
Time: 7:39pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Boston, MA
Channel: TBS/truTV
As far as I'm concerned UConn still has to prove they are not Villanova of 2017. To do so they must win a rematch of last year's title game.
UConn San Diego State
Power Ratings
Strength: #2 Strength: #24
Median: #1 Median: #25
Markov: #1 Markov: #22
Pomeroy: #1 Pomeroy: #17
Offense: #2 Offense: #53
Defense: #8 Defense: #9
BPI: #2 BPI: #27
LRMC: #1 LRMC: #21
Other Measures:
Tempo (Offense): #293 Tempo (Offense): #197
Consistency: #288 Consistency: #125
2nd half season: #1 2nd half season: #20
Last 6: #1 Last 6: #25
The idea that a UConn repeat is inevitable has grown to ridiculous proportions, with announcers wondering if anyone will be within 10 points of them. Just because they did that last year—with a very different team—and have had double-digit wins the first two games does not equal invincibility. I've railed against the idea that they are equivalent to Florida 2007—a team that returned five starters—and compared them to Villanova 2017, who lost in the Round of 32. UConn did not lose in the Round of 32, but losing in the Sweet Sixteen is comparable.
That said, so far they look pretty invincible, hitting #1 in Pomeroy, #2 in Strength and BPI, with the #2 offense and top ten defense. San Diego State's only comparable stat is their own top ten defense, but their offense is outside the top 50. It's no secret they'll be a big underdog in this game.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(7)Texas+10, =(1)North Carolina+11, @(5)Gonzaga+13, (3)Creighton+14, (2)Marquette+28, @(2)Marquette+7, =(2)Marquette+16, =(16)Stetson+39, =(9)Northwestern+17
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (6): =(1)North Carolina+11, @(5)Gonzaga+13, (3)Creighton+14, (2)Marquette+28, @(2)Marquette+7, =(2)Marquette+16
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @(4)Kansas-4, @(3)Creighton-19
- Other losses (1): @Seton Hall-15
Overview: Just like we noted with Marquette, the Big East teams are going to show very few tournament wins because all the Big East teams got left out. It's basically the Big East Big Three and whoever you played in non-conference, so a 1-seed like UConn has just seven big wins. One of those was 1-seed North Carolina though, and 5-seed Gonzaga is always impressive. They lost to 4-seed Kansas, and even to Seton Hall (one of the bracket-busted Big East teams). Note that of their 7 original tourney wins, six now count as wins over the Sweet Sixteen.
UConn is looking to repeat as champs and everyone is falling over themselves comparing them to 2007 Florida, but as I've said, the danger is them resembling 2017 Villanova. The 2017 Wildcats, trying to repeat their 2016 championship, entered the 2nd round 32-3 and lost to 8-seed Wisconsin. Will UConn fall in the 2nd round to a middle-seeded Big Ten team as well? The answer was no, but several other defending national champs have fallen at the Sweet Sixteen mark.
The Huskies are led by Tristen Newton's 15.2 ppg and four others average in double figures. Donovan Clingan scored 20 points in UConn's 91-52 first round win over Stetson. The Huskies didn't slow down at all against Northwestern, winning easily 73-58 behind Newton's 20 points.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): (15)Long Beach St.+12, =(5)Saint Mary's+25, @(5)Gonzaga+10, (10)Nevada+12, (8)Utah St.+14, (10)Colorado St.+16, (11)New Mexico+11, =(8)Utah St.+16, =(12)UAB+4, =(13)Yale+18
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): @(5)Gonzaga+10
- Losses to tournament teams (9): @(6)BYU-9, @(12)Grand Canyon-6, @(11)New Mexico-18, @(10)Boise St.-1, @(10)Colorado St.-8, @(10)Nevada-OT, @(8)Utah St.-5, (10)Boise St.-OT, =(11)New Mexico-7
- Other losses (1): @UNLV-4
Overview: San Diego State didn't quite have the great season they did last year when they were 27-6 entering the tournament, but they got the same 5-seed because, well, that's how it works with name recognition. Also, they have wins over 8 tournament teams including 5-seeds Gonzaga and St. Mary's, that helped. The losses added up this year in the Mountain West, however, though it was a 6-bid league.
San Diego State went to the finals last year, and this year's team sort of reminds me of Butler the year after their 2nd-place finish. The Bulldogs weren't nearly as good but made it back to the finals somehow, losing again. Is that the Aztec's fate/destiny? Though several starters return, this year's leading scorer is 5th-year senior Jaedon LeDee, a backup last year. He averages 21.1 points per game and ads a team-leading 8.4 rebounds; last year he averaged 7.9 and 5.3. Against UAB he had 32 points, and he had 26 as the Aztecs crushed Yale 85-57.
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Game Analysis: Last year UConn made the finals as a 4-seed, playing against 5-seed San Diego State. The Huskies quickly got a double-digit lead and held off any Aztec attempt to narrow the gap. They won 76-59.
Will this year's matchup be any different—especially considering they are playing in Boston? Talking heads are calling it an easy win for UConn, and it's hard not to agree. Let's look at the stats, which are a good compare because the teams played a very similar SOS.
San Diego State's biggest problems—as usual—are on offense, where UConn's D outclasses them. The Aztecs don't shoot the 3 well and UConn is #4 in 2-point defense. That means SDSU will have to outrebound the Huskies and that's pretty much a draw.
When UConn has the ball the Aztecs can match them pretty well statistically, but UConn has a rebounding edge and shoots very well underneath (#4 on 2's). Both teams do everything well here. It's top ten basketball on this side of the court, and SDSU can hold their own.
UConn's height could be a problem for San Diego State. Tristan Newton is 7 inches taller at point guard than Darrion Trammell, and 7-2 center Donovan Clingan has 5 inches on Jaedon LeDee. How the Aztecs shuffle their lineup or counter the advantage will be key.
Basically, for SDSU to have a chance, Jaedon LeDee has to be the man. He has to turn the height disadvantage into an advantage underneath, and play the game of his life on both sides of the court. He has to be not only the best player on the court, but be head and shoulders above that everyone else that evening.
Vegas Line:
UConn by 10 1/2
Power rating: spread
UConn by 11.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
UConn: 78.8%
SDSU: 21.2%
We have to give UConn home court for playing less than 100 miles from home compared to 3,000 miles and three time zones for San Diego State. It looks like Vegas agrees, as their line is higher than our margin would be (9.0 points0 without home court (the odds to win would be 74%). 1-seeds beat 5-seeds about 81% of the time, so the odds with HCA fit pretty well.
Bottom line: UConn is due for a bad game. It has to happen at some point. And with everyone saying how great they are, overconfidence might start to creep in. But even with a bad UConn game the Atecs can't win in Boston without LeDee stepping up big time.
Final prediction: San Diego State 86, UConn 84 2OT
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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