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North Carolina Tar Heels
Seed: 1
Record: 29-7
Conference: ACC
vs.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Seed: 4
Record: 23-11
Conference: SEC
Date: Thursday, March 28
Time: 9:39pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Channel: CBS
Los Angeles is definitely a neutral court for these teams.
North Carolina Alabama
Power Ratings
Strength: #8 Strength: #10
Median: #9 Median: #11
Markov: #4 Markov: #23
Pomeroy: #9 Pomeroy: #14
Offense: #16 Offense: #4
Defense: #6 Defense: #101
BPI: #9 BPI: #12
LRMC: #7 LRMC: #18
Other Measures:
Tempo (Offense): #35 Tempo (Offense): #3
Consistency: #103 Consistency: #359
2nd half season: #7 2nd half season: #18
Last 6: #10 Last 6: #76
For a 1-seed and a 4-seed the teams are pretty damn even in metrics. They're within 2 spots in Strength, 5 spots in Pomeroy, and 3 spots in BPI. LRMC has UNC 11 rungs better, which makes sense as our Markov Chain model ranks the Tar Heels #4 and the Tide just #23. The only glaring stat, though, is Alabama's defensive efficiency rating of #101, something that is bound to catch up with them eventually. Some teams have started the tournament with a triple-digit defensive rank and gone to the Final Four, but their ranking improved dramatically over that time. Alabama's started at #112 and has indeed improved, but not that much.
The game should be fast and furious, with both teams taking shots early in the clock. Game to game North Carolina doesn't vary all that much, while Alabama is up and down game to game, the 4th least consistent team in the nation. Their steep decline over the last 6 games isn't due to that, though—it's due more to injuries the team had late in the season. For the tournament, Alabama has been strictly average—probably the two most consistent performances they've had, right at the mean/median level. A their best they can beat anyone, but it's been a while since we've seen their best.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (2)Tennessee+8, @(6)Clemson+10, @(11)N.C. State+13, (4)Duke+9, @(10)Virginia+10, (11)N.C. State+9, @(4)Duke+5, =(16)Wagner+28, =(9)Michigan St.+16
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (6): (2)Tennessee+8, @(6)Clemson+10, @(11)N.C. State+13, (4)Duke+9, (11)N.C. State+9, @(4)Duke+5
- Losses to tournament teams (4): =(1)Connecticut-11, =(3)Kentucky-4, (6)Clemson-4, =(11)N.C. State-8
- Other losses (3): =Villanova-OT, @Georgia Tech-1, @Syracuse-7
Overview: The best way to look at North Carolina this year is to look at their losses. The first three, to Villanova, 83-81 in overtime, in the Bahamas; to 1-seed UConn (87-76) in New York and to 3-seed Kentucky (87-83) in Atlanta, are not bad performances at all. The next three: at Georgia Tech 74-73; 6-seed Clemson 80-76; and at Syracuse 86-79, are a level down but not awful. The last one: NC State 84-76 in Washington DC. That rates as their worst loss. None of them are that terrible. Most would say the Georgia Tech loss was their worst but it was by a point on the road, that can happen to any team. According to my numbers, UNC has the best "worst game" of any team except Duke.
Now let's talk about their wins: 100-92 over 2-seed Tennessee is by far their best, and in conference they beat Duke a couple times.Their losses are more impressive than their wins! Kind of a weak résumé for a 1-seed, but the choices were slim and Tennessee was one of the "finalists" and the Tar Heels won the head-to-head. They have an impressive six wins over the Sweet Sixteen.
North Carolina plays its usual up-tempo basketball, scoring led by RJ Davis at 21.4 points, and Armando Bacot with 10.2 rebounds per game. The duo are all that's left of the 2022 Final Four team. Davis had 22 and Bacot 20 against Wagner, and the duo had 20 and 18 vs. Michigan State.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): (14)Morehead St.+32, =(11)Oregon+8, (6)South Carolina+27, @(8)Mississippi St.+8, (4)Auburn+4, (8)Mississippi St.+32, (9)Texas A&M+25, (7)Florida+OT, =(13)Charleston+13, =(12)Grand Canyon+11
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (10): (6)Clemson-8, =(1)Purdue-6, @(3)Creighton-3, @(2)Arizona-13, @(2)Tennessee-20, @(4)Auburn-18, @(3)Kentucky-22, (2)Tennessee-7, @(7)Florida-18, =(7)Florida-14
- Other losses (1): =Ohio St.-11
Overview: For all the games they won the Tide didn't beat a team higher than a 4-seed. They lost to 1-seed Purdue, 2-seed Arizona, 2-seed Tennessee (twice), 3-seed Kentucky, 3-seed Creighton, 6-seed Clemson, and 7-seed Florida (twice). No wonder their SOS is #4 in the nation. If they'd won just a few of those they would have a more proper seed for their level of play. Which begs the question, can Alabama win the big game? For right now though, they have to win the small game! It's telling that none of the teams they beat reached the Sweet Sixteen.
The peaks and valleys of the season can be seen above, and the decline at the end is precipitous. #5 scorer Latrell Wrightsell (9.0ppg) was out from game 26 (overtime Florida win at home), through the Tennessee home loss (game 29). #4 scorer Rylan Griffen (11.0) missed the Arkansas home win. Both played 20 minutes in the 102-88 loss to Florida in the final game.
Mark Sears leads the team with a 21.1 per game average. He was recently named a Wooden Award finalist. Sears had 30 points in the win over Charleston in the first round and 26 against Grand Canyon in the Round of 32.
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Game Analysis: North Carolina is a pretty short team for Major conference team, just #163 in average height. Alabama is statistically the 35th tallest team but that's all due to their interior duo at 6-10 and 6-11. Their guards are all low 6-feet, and the team has a surprising amount of shots blocked (11th most in the nation). They also give up a lot of steals.
Other than those drawbacks, Alabama's offense is rock solid, shooting both the 2- and the 3-pointer very well and rebounding well. UNC defends well and also rebounds very well (#6 in the nation when on defense). They don't steal the ball very often, good news for the Tide, but they're decent shot blockers.
North Carolina on offense is good everywhere and very good in a few areas. Good at shooting the ball, good at rebounding, and very good at avoiding turnovers and shooting free throws. Meanwhile Alabama can match them in defending shots but is poor at rebounding on defense and fouls a lot. North Carolina probably wins this game at the line even though the Tide are better free throw shooters, just because UNC will be at the line a lot more.
Vegas Line:
UNC by 4 1/2
Power rating: spread
UNC by 0.8
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
UNC: 52.8%
Alabama: 47.2%
Though our average margin is North Carolina by around a point, due to Alabama's low Consistency there are a lot more games than normal where the Tide win or lose by 10 points or more. 1-seeds beat 4-seeds over 70% of the time so our odds to win speak to Alabama's quality as a 4-seed. Meanwhile Vegas gives UNC all the benefit of the doubt.
Bottom line: Alabama is inconsistent but it's been a while since that's manifested on the upside; lately they've been consistently average (tournament) or below average (before that). Injuries were a factor but unless they play one of their better games North Carolina is going to motivate themselves into the Elite Eight. And the free throws will add up.
Final prediction: North Carolina 96, Alabama 88
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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