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Houston Cougars
Seed: 1
Record: 32-4
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Duke Blue Devils
Seed: 4
Record: 26-8
Conference: ACC
Date: Friday, March 29
Time: 9:39pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Dallas, TX
Channel: CBS
Is Houston vulnerable after their near-loss? Or stronger for playing close to home in Texas?
Houston Duke
Power Ratings
Strength: #1 Strength: #9
Median: #3 Median: #6
Markov: #3 Markov: #10
Pomeroy: #2 Pomeroy: #6
Offense: #14 Offense: #5
Defense: #2 Defense: #18
BPI: #1 BPI: #7
LRMC: #2 LRMC: #12
Other Measures:
Tempo (Offense): #322 Tempo (Offense): #162
Consistency: #140 Consistency: #207
2nd half season: #2 2nd half season: #10
Last 6: #5 Last 6: #7
Houston is obviously a strong 1-seed, either #1 or #2 in all the power ratings. Duke is a strong 4-seed though, in the top ten of the power ratings except LRMC which doesn't update past Selection Sunday. The offense and defensive matchups are very close, with Houston having a slight edge in both cross-pairings.
This closeness continues to the recent play numbers as well. Duke won their last game with a blowout while Houston had an overtime nail-biter. Does this affect who gets to the Elite Eight?
- Wins vs. tournament teams (14): (16)Stetson+31, =(7)Dayton+14, (9)Texas A&M+4, (6)Texas Tech+23, @(6)BYU+7, @(7)Texas+OT, (7)Texas+21, (2)Iowa St.+8, @(3)Baylor+OT, (4)Kansas+30, =(9)TCU+15, =(6)Texas Tech+23, (16)Longwood+40, =(9)Texas A&M+OT
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): (2)Iowa St.+8
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @(2)Iowa St.-4, @(9)TCU-1, @(4)Kansas-13, =(2)Iowa St.-28
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Now that's what I call a 1-seed résumé: a dozen wins over tournament teams; a handful of losses to tournament teams; and no losses to non-tourney teams. It looks like a national champ's chart—until that last loss to Iowa State, which raised questions on how it might affect them going forward. In the first round against Longwood they went up 10-0 immediately and led 43-16 at the half. No hangover at all.
Houston's defense (#2 shot defense; #3 in blocked shots; #2 in steals) is the key to their success, but their offense is top-level, too; they play a slower, methodical offense which emphasizes crashing the boards for rebounds, which they need because frankly they don't shoot the ball very well (#229 in effective FG%). Three Cougars average in double figures led by LJ Cryer's 15.3. Cryer and Damien Dunn led with 17 each against Longwood. Just two games after their worst loss the Cougars had their weakest win, needing overtime to finally put away Texas A&M 100-95; Emanuel Sharp's 30 points led the way in a game where four starters fouled out.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(9)Michigan St.+9, =(3)Baylor+8, (6)Clemson+1, (10)Virginia+25, @(11)N.C. State+15, =(13)Vermont+17, =(12)James Madison+38
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): (6)Clemson+1, @(11)N.C. State+15
- Losses to tournament teams (4): (2)Arizona-5, @(1)North Carolina-9, (1)North Carolina-5, =(11)N.C. State-5
- Other losses (4): @Arkansas-5, @Georgia Tech-4, Pittsburgh-4, @Wake Forest-4
Overview: Like any Duke season expectations start high, and the Blue Devils play good teams and expectations are reset. Losing to Arizona at home was a wakeup call, but beating Michigan State helped assuage worries. Losing to Arkansas wasn't considered such an awful thing at the time, but losing to Georgia Tech for a 5-3 start sounded alarms. The Blue Devils won their next 8 games (including a win over 3-seed Baylor) going 19-5 the rest of the way. They lost twice to 1-seed North Carolina however, which showed there limitations, which were again exposed by the loss to NC State in the ACC tournament.
Duke has five players in double figures led by 7-0 Center Kyle Filipowski at 17.1; he adds 8.2 rebounds per game. Surprisingly against a short Vermont team in 37 minutes he managed just 3 points on 0-1 shooting; Mark Mitchell and Jared McCain picked up the slack with 15 each. Duke played incredibly in the 93-55 blowout of James Madison, with Jared McCain pouring in 30 points on 8 of 11 threes.
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Game Analysis: Houston is coming off one of their worst performances of the season—not nearly as bad as the Iowa State loss, but their weakest performance in a winning effort—while Duke is coming off their strongest game yet. Regardless of whether this momentum continues for both teams, there is the matter of Houston's fouling on defense, and whether they will see the same foul trouble against Duke.
Four Cougar starters fouled out against Texas A&M. As a team they're in the top 50 in terms of fouls committed per opponent FG attempt. That and lack of rebounding are the only weakness in their defense—they defend the 2 and 3 incredible well (top ten in both), are #2 in steals and #2 in blocked shots. Their opponents even shoot a bad free throw percentage! Duke on offense is solid across the board except they get a lot of shots blocked, so that will be a problem against Houston for sure. They should rebound well on offense, and they are reasonably good at getting to the line and that's where the Cougars' problem lies. They can play great defense, but what if they get into foul trouble again?
Their offense could be affected by that. On offense Houston takes their time and often just runs the clock down before running a play. They don't shoot the ball well at all but rebound like mad and avoid turnovers. Duke's rebounding is pretty good on defense and they rarely foul, which should limit Houston's free throw chances to very few.
So bottom line, Duke will have a lot of free throws, but probably not as many as Texas A&M did. The Aggies run a weird, aggressive offense that just clashed with Houston's active man-to-man in a way that led to lots of fouls by the Cougars. It won't be as extreme with Duke's offense. The Blue Devils will have a lot of shots blocked though by Houston's #2 shot blockers. The Cougars won't find matters easy on offense though as Duke also rebounds well on defense. Rebounding in general is Duke's key to the game, to get 2nd chances on offense and limit Houston's offense.
That's all on paper, of course. In the end though, both these teams have been so up-and-down over the last three or four games that we really don't know what we're going to get.
Vegas Line:
Houston by 4 1/2
Power rating: spread
Houston by 4.6 / 7.5
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Houston: 65.0% / 72.3%
Duke: 35.0% / 27.7%
Vegas may be giving a bit of home court consideration, since they are normally a point or two lower than the Strength power rating margin, and they match it almost exactly. I don't think Houston should be granted the full three points but they are playing in-state.
1-seeds beat 4-seeds about 72% of the time, or roughly our odds if we give Houston the home court.
Bottom line: Duke's last game was fantastic, their best of the season, so they're bound to come down. And Texas A&M's style is exactly Houston's anathema as seen by the two very close games. Houston won't foul as much against Duke and we'll see them at their best again.
Final prediction: Houston 72, Duke 64
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