All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
San Diego State Aztecs
Seed: 5
Record: 25-10
Conference: Mountain West
vs.
Yale Bulldogs
Seed: 13
Record: 23-9
Conference: Ivy League
Date: Sunday, March 24
Time: 9:40pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Spokane, WA
Channel: TBS
This is the 2nd year in a row where the Ivy League winner has made a first-round upset. Last year Princeton made the Sweet Sixteen.
San Diego St. Yale
Power Ratings
Strength: #26 Strength: #91
Median: #48 Median: #89
Markov: #23 Markov: #106
Pomeroy: #20 Pomeroy: #79
Offense: #62 Offense: #87
Defense: #10 Defense: #84
BPI: #34 BPI: #66
LRMC: #21 LRMC: #87
Other Measures:
SOS: #53 SOS: #161
Tempo (Offense): #194 Tempo (Offense): #334
Consistency: #100 Consistency: #9
Str + Reliability: #18 Str + Reliability: #54
Str + Potential: #42 Str + Potential: #137
2nd half season: #30 2nd half season: #76
Last 6: #46 Last 6: #71
Injury Mod Rank: #27 Injury Mod Rank: #91
Tourney 4-year: #7 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #52
What jumps out right away about San Diego State is the drop from their #26 Strength to #48 Median rankings. Strength is a mean average of game performance, while Median is (naturally) a median average. Apparently SDSU has a lot of upside games that get trimmed off by the Median measure. Otherwise most of the power ratings have the Aztecs in the 20s but their offense is only #62, which means that Yale is pretty close in that metric. On defense it's not comparable with SDSU in the top ten.
Unlike Yale's last opponent (Auburn) who had the #300 consistency, San Diego State is more reliable, which is bad for the very-consistent Yale team in their quest for another upset. Yale's slow tempo will still be a positive in that regard.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (15)Long Beach St.+12, =(5)Saint Mary's+25, @(5)Gonzaga+10, (10)Nevada+12, (8)Utah St.+14, (10)Colorado St.+16, (11)New Mexico+11, =(8)Utah St.+16, =(12)UAB+4
- Losses to tournament teams (9): @(6)BYU-9, @(12)Grand Canyon-6, @(11)New Mexico-18, @(10)Boise St.-1, @(10)Colorado St.-8, @(10)Nevada-OT, @(8)Utah St.-5, (10)Boise St.-OT, =(11)New Mexico-7
- Other losses (1): @UNLV-4
Overview: San Diego State didn't quite have the great season they did last year when they were 27-6 entering the tournament, but they got the same 5-seed because, well, that's how it works with name recognition. Also, they have wins over 8 tournament teams including 5-seeds Gonzaga and St. Mary's, that helped. The losses added up this year in the Mountain West, however, though it was a 6-bid league.
San Diego State went to the finals last year, and this year's team sort of reminds me of Butler the year after their 2nd-place finish. The Bulldogs weren't nearly as good but made it back to the finals somehow, losing again. Is that the Aztec's fate/destiny? Though several starters return, this year's leading scorer is 5th-year senior Jaedon LeDee, a backup last year. He averages 21.1 points per game and ads a team-leading 8.4 rebounds; last year he averaged 7.9 and 5.3. Against UAB he had 32 points.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): =(14)Colgate+18, @(16)Howard+OT, =(4)Auburn+2
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @(5)Gonzaga-15, @(13)Vermont-1, @(4)Kansas-15
- Other losses (6): =Weber St.-OT, @Rhode Island-4, Fairfield-4, @Princeton-11, @Cornell-3, Brown-OT
Overview: Yale got off to a rocky start, something that happens to a lot of small-conference teams as they schedule tough opponents like 4-seed Kansas, and 5-seed Gonzaga. But to be fair the Bulldogs lots to a lot of teams they should have beaten before the Ivy League season. In conference play they did about as well as could be expected, even beating Princeton once, though the home loss to Brown was uncalled for.
Yale is led by 7-0 Danny Wolf's 14.3 points and 9.8 rebounds per game; he's one of 5 starters in double figures. Against Auburn it was John Poulakidas who led with 28 points, making 6 of 9 threes.
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Game Analysis: San Diego State wasn't too impressive against UAB. Meanwhile Yale was the best they've been this season against Auburn. That alone makes the odds of an upset seem a lot higher.
But Yale probably can't take all the credit for that game; a lot was due to Auburn playing poorly, as well as getting a starter ejected early. Yale is very consistent and their odds of coming up with another outlier game are slim. But on the other hand, San Diego State's recent play is pretty uninspiring.
The main hurdle for Yale to overcome is how to function against the Aztec defense. Granted, they are coming off a game against the #5 defensive team, so maybe that shouldn't be a question? John Poulakidas was their answer: he made 6 of 9 three pointers. Can he hope to repeat that performance? Yale can't count on it happening, that's for sure.
Normally 7-0 center Danny Wolf is their go-to guy, but he was bottled up by Auburn's D; the Aztecs are nowhere near as good as Auburn in defending the 2-point shot so Wolf should have a better game.
They have to stop Aztec star LeDee as well; they weren't very effective in slowing down Auburn's Johni Broome inside and LeDee is basically just as good. The best weapon Yale has on defense is rebounding, and since SDSU isn't a great shooting team, that's what will help them stay in it. On offense, Yale just has to hope they make their threes again.
Vegas Line:
SDSU by 5 1/2
Power rating: spread
SDSU by 7.4
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
SDSU: 71.4%
Yale: 28.6%
San Diego State is a moderate favorite, as expected. Their 71% odds of winning are lower than the historical odds of a 5 beating a 13-seed, which are above 80%.
Bottom line: Yale probably won't repeat their upside performance, but San Diego State isn't looking like a team that will blow anyone away. Yale's buzzer-beater three goes in and out.
Final prediction: San Diego State 66, Yale 64
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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