All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 4
Record: 23-10
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 5
Record: 26-7
Conference: West Coast
Date: Saturday, March 22
Time: 3:15pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Salt Lake City, UT
Channel: CBS
Kansas faces another fast-tempo team, this one much better than the last.
Kansas Gonzaga
Power Ratings
Strength: #22 Strength: #16
Median: #24 Median: #18
Markov: #16 Markov: #21
Pomeroy: #24 Pomeroy: #12
Offense: #63 Offense: #8
Defense: #13 Defense: #42
BPI: #20 BPI: #15
LRMC: #25 LRMC: #15
Other Measures:
SOS: #10 SOS: #115
Tempo (Offense): #55 Tempo (Offense): #41
Consistency: #339 Consistency: #118
Str + Reliability: #44 Str + Reliability: #14
Str + Potential: #13 Str + Potential: #25
2nd half season: #18 2nd half season: #11
Last 6: #73 Last 6: #5
Injury Mod Rank: #52 Injury Mod Rank: #17
Tourney 4-year: #4 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #3
These are of course two of the best tournament teams of the last few years, with Kansas winning it all in 2022 and Gonzaga finishing runner-up the year before. I've updated most of the power rating numbers which I don't usually do until the 2nd round, but these teams are so close I wanted to get the most recent numbers. Particularly in the offense/defense rankings, where Gonzaga's offense shows a very slight edge over Kansas' defense, and the Zag defense an edge over the KU offense. When Gonzaga has the ball this is a matchup of top ten teams. Both teams are very fast-tempo, so look for an exciting game.
Gonzaga has the edge in most of the power ratings, and has also overtaken Kansas in "median" play after the first round. They're still behind in the Markov Chain, and that's it. They were already 10 spots ahead in the LRMC which doesn't update; Markov and LRMC have the same basic philosophy but obviously quite different implementations!
Kansas' recent play stats have gone down even further, to #73 in the last 6 games, while Gonzaga is now in the top 5. Kansas played without Kevin McCullar and it showed; their Injury Correction figure (#52) is more representative of how they are without him, though they did get Hunter Dickinson back which was critical to their close win.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(3)Kentucky+5, =(2)Tennessee+9, (1)Connecticut+4, (13)Yale+15, (9)TCU+2, (1)Houston+13, (3)Baylor+3, (7)Texas+19, =(13)Samford+4
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =(2)Marquette-14, @(2)Iowa St.-4, @(6)Texas Tech-29, (6)BYU-8, @(3)Baylor-8, @(1)Houston-30
- Other losses (4): @UCF-5, @West Virginia-6, @Kansas St.-OT, =Cincinnati-20
Overview: Kansas has a résumé that a 2-seed would be jealous of. Hell, even a 1-seed. The Jayhawks have beaten not one but two 1-seeds (UConn, Houston), 2-seed Tennessee, and 3-seeds Kentucky and Baylor. Four of their 10 losses come from 3-seeds or higher (Marquette, Iowa State, Baylor, and Houston). It's kind of remarkable that their SOS is only #10.
This shows that Kansas can play with anyone under the right circumstances. And the Jayhawks found those circumstances mostly earlier in the season; the wins over Kentucky, Tennessee, and UConn all occurred on or before December 1st. In 2024 the injuries and erratic play started adding up and all of their 4 losses to non-tournament teams happened. Their high may have been their home win over Houston, the low three games later at Texas Tech, a 79-50 loss.
Kansas is led on offense by Kevin McCullar and 7-2 transfer center Hunter Dickinson, who score 18 points each. Dickinson leads in rebounding with 10.8 per game. Both are hobbled by injuries right now and missed the last game of the regular season, a 72-52 loss to Cincinnati.
Dickinson returned and scored 19 points and grabbed 20 rebounds, but McCullar will miss the rest of the tournament with his knee injury, a bad break for KU.
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Season overview: Gonzaga
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): (13)Yale+15, @(3)Kentucky+4, @(5)Saint Mary's+13, =(12)McNeese St.+21
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(1)Purdue-10, (1)Connecticut-13, (5)San Diego St.-10, (5)Saint Mary's-2, =(5)Saint Mary's-9
- Other losses (2): @Washington-5, @Santa Clara-1
Overview: Gonzaga played two 1-seeds this year and lost to both Purdue and UConn by low double-digits. Not bad, but the usual standard for Gonzaga has become so high that it's a disappointment they didn't beat both. Expectations were so low at one point that the win at Kentucky was celebrated for locking up an at-large bid (the Zags haven't missed the tournament since 1998).
The faces and focus of the team has changed—Drew Timme is gone, fyi—but the winning continues, still running a fast-paced offense with four in double figures now led by Graham Ike's 16.5 ppg. Ike had 16 against McNeese State.
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Game Analysis: The big question was whether Kevin McCullar would play in the tournament, and that question has been answered. Now KU must figure out how to beat Gonzaga without him.
It won't be easy because they don't play well when he's not in the lineup, #52 in our latest numbers (thought that includes a game without Dickinson). Meanwhile Gonzaga is playing like gangbusters, and has the edge on both offense and defense.
Both teams shoot well (and defend shots well) but only Gonzaga shoots the three well. Both teams rebound well, but only Gonzaga rebounds well offensively. 18 of Dickinson's 20 rebounds against Samford were defensive rebounds.
These teams both play fast on offense but like to bottle up their opponent and force a long possession, so it will be interesting to see what happens. They both take mostly 2-point shots, but both defenses defend the two very well.
Vegas Line:
Gonzaga by 4 1/2
Power rating: spread
Gonzaga by 1.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Kansas: 48.5%
Gonzaga: 51.5%
This line from the sportsbooks is very telling. Normally the team the Strength power rating picks is overvalued by a point or two. Here, Vegas has added almost three points for Gonzaga. So it's not just the power ratings—they are docking Kansas for the absence of Kevin McCullar. The odds show a nearly 50/50 game but that's both teams for their season average, not when one team is down a very key player.
Bottom line: I said before I didn't think Kansas will make a deep run, and I think this is where they exit.
Final prediction: Gonzaga 78, Kansas 73
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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