All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Duke Blue Devils
Seed: 4
Record: 25-8
Conference: ACC
vs.
James Madison Dukes
Seed: 12
Record: 32-3
Conference: Sun Belt
Date: Sunday, March 24
Time: 5:15pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Channel: CBS
Duke vs. the Dukes, how many times will we hear that in the run-up to this game?
Duke James Madison
Power Ratings
Strength: #12 Strength: #68
Median: #8 Median: #70
Markov: #10 Markov: #52
Pomeroy: #8 Pomeroy: #59
Offense: #7 Offense: #56
Defense: #26 Defense: #79
BPI: #8 BPI: #45
LRMC: #12 LRMC: #46
Other Measures:
SOS: #64 SOS: #269
Tempo (Offense): #135 Tempo (Offense): #69
Consistency: #120 Consistency: #87
Str + Reliability: #9 Str + Reliability: #58
Str + Potential: #15 Str + Potential: #80
2nd half season: #13 2nd half season: #59
Last 6: #14 Last 6: #51
Injury Mod Rank: #10 Injury Mod Rank: #68
Tourney 4-year: #11 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #59
On paper this looks like a strong 4-seed vs. an average 12-seed. Duke is better on offense and defense and also on each side of the court when the two are cross-compared. Both teams play an above-average tempo on offense and are better on offense than defense so expect a fairly high-scoring game. Both are pretty consistent, too, so what you see on paper is more than likely to be what you get on the court. Neither team has really upped their game a lot lately or declined much, either, though JMU has pulled closer during the tournament so far.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(9)Michigan St.+9, =(3)Baylor+8, (6)Clemson+1, (10)Virginia+25, @(11)N.C. State+15, =(13)Vermont+17
- Losses to tournament teams (4): (2)Arizona-5, @(1)North Carolina-9, (1)North Carolina-5, =(11)N.C. State-5
- Other losses (4): @Arkansas-5, @Georgia Tech-4, Pittsburgh-4, @Wake Forest-4
Overview: Like any Duke season expectations start high, and the Blue Devils play good teams and expectations are reset. Losing to Arizona at home was a wakeup call, but beating Michigan State helped assuage worries. Losing to Arkansas wasn't considered such an awful thing at the time, but losing to Georgia Tech for a 5-3 start sounded alarms. The Blue Devils won their next 8 games (including a win over 3-seed Baylor) going 19-5 the rest of the way. They lost twice to 1-seed North Carolina however, which showed there limitations, which were again exposed by the loss to NC State in the ACC tournament.
Duke has five players in double figures led by 7-0 Center Kyle Filipowski at 17.1; he adds 8.2 rebounds per game. Surprisingly against a short Vermont team in 37 minutes he managed just 3 points on 0-1 shooting; Mark Mitchell and Jared McCain picked up the slack with 15 each.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): @(9)Michigan St.+OT, (16)Howard+21, (14)Akron+14, =(5)Wisconsin+11
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (3): @Southern Miss-10, Appalachian St.-4, @Appalachian St.-6
Overview: James Madison kicked off the season with a great overtime win at Michigan State; this was back when the Spartans were considered a top 5 team. The Dukes remained undefeated until game 15 when they lost to lowly Southern Miss 81-71, and two games later they fell to Appalachian State at home. The Mountaineers topped them again four games later and it looked like the Dukes might not be the best team in the Sun Belt. But they put together another long win streak—13 games and counting, the nation's longest—and won the Sun Belt tournament.
The Dukes have three starters in double figures and 8 who average more than 5 points per game, with Terrence Edwards the leader at 17.4ppg. Edwards had 14 in the 72-61 win over Wisconsin.
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Game Analysis: Two talented teams that win a lot—especially James Madison. It's no secret that their schedule has been easy overall but they've now beaten Michigan State on the road and Wisconsin on a neutral court. In fact, they've beaten a higher seeded team (5) than Duke has (6)!
The two teams' raw stats are very comparable: both shoot well on offense, both 3s and 2s, rebound well on both sides, and don't turn the ball over much at all. Both defend well, both 2s and 3s. The only differences are that JMU's defense forces more turnovers, as well as fouling a lot more.
Of course, these are raw stats and their similarity implies that Duke is a lot better across the board. Of course, we said the same thing about JMU vs. Wisconsin.
One question mark is the play of Kyle Filipowski, who took only one shot against a very short Vermont team in a game that was pretty close until the late 2nd half. He did have 12 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 blocks and 2 steals, so it wasn't a really bad performance, but Duke needs him to be somewhat productive on offense. He might be motivated by the question about his play.
Vegas Line:
Duke by 6 1/2
Power rating: spread
Duke by 9.2
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Duke: 74.5%
JMU: 25.5%
A pretty slim Vegas edge for Duke, probably because of their first tournament games where JMU had a better outing. Historically 4-seeds beat 12-seeds around 68% of the time.
Bottom line: The teams are carbon copies of each other but one has played a tough schedule. That should mean something, but we'll see if it does. Kyle Filipowski should have a much better game scoring-wise.
Final prediction: Duke 86, James Madison 72
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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