All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Alabama Crimson Tide
Seed: 4
Record: 22-11
Conference: SEC
vs.
Grand Canyon
Seed: 12
Record: 30-4
Conference: WAC
Date: Saturday, March 24
Time: 7:10pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Spokane, WA
Channel: TBS
Alabama survived 13-seed Charleston, but can they handle 12-seed Grand Canyon?
Alabama Grand Canyon
Power Ratings
Strength: #9 Strength: #69
Median: #13 Median: #69
Markov: #26 Markov: #59
Pomeroy: #15 Pomeroy: #50
Offense: #3 Offense: #56
Defense: #117 Defense: #42
BPI: #10 BPI: #62
LRMC: #18 LRMC: #44
Other Measures:
SOS: #4 SOS: #195
Tempo (Offense): #3 Tempo (Offense): #74
Consistency: #359 Consistency: #38
Str + Reliability: #30 Str + Reliability: #47
Str + Potential: #2 Str + Potential: #89
2nd half season: #22 2nd half season: #63
Last 6: #74 Last 6: #21
Injury Mod Rank: #5 Injury Mod Rank: #65
Tourney 4-year: #13 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #40
We know the drill by now: the 4-seed has better metrics than the 13-seed. That's clear. And Alabama's Offense is #3 while Grand Canyon's defense is #42. But in terms of rungs on the ladder, Grand Canyon's offense is superior to Alabama's defense by a wider margin. So if we look at it that way then Grand Canyon has a good chance. It's not really how Pomeroy's ratings are meant to be used, but it makes a point that the Antelopes are within striking distance of an upset.
But like our last review, we have to note Alabama's wild inconsistency, #359 among 362 teams and you really don't need any more justification for an upset call. Grand Canyon's high level of consistency hurts, but let's ignore that, and also the very fast tempo which should help insure that the better team wins.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (14)Morehead St.+32, =(11)Oregon+8, (6)South Carolina+27, @(8)Mississippi St.+8, (4)Auburn+4, (8)Mississippi St.+32, (9)Texas A&M+25, (7)Florida+OT, =(13)Charleston+13
- Losses to tournament teams (10): (6)Clemson-8, =(1)Purdue-6, @(3)Creighton-3, @(2)Arizona-13, @(2)Tennessee-20, @(4)Auburn-18, @(3)Kentucky-22, (2)Tennessee-7, @(7)Florida-18, =(7)Florida-14
- Other losses (1): =Ohio St.-11
Overview: For all the games they won the Tide didn't beat a team higher than a 4-seed. They lost to 1-seed Purdue, 2-seed Arizona, 2-seed Tennessee (twice), 3-seed Kentucky, 3-seed Creighton, 6-seed Clemson, and 7-seed Florida (twice). No wonder their SOS is #4 in the nation. If they'd won just a few of those they would have a more proper seed for their level of play. Which begs the question, can Alabama win the big game? For right now though, they have to win the small game!
The peaks and valleys of the season can be seen above, and the decline at the end is precipitous. #5 scorer Latrell Wrightsell (9.0ppg) was out from game 26 (overtime Florida win at home), through the Tennessee home loss (game 29). #4 scorer Rylan Griffen (11.0) missed the Arkansas home win. Both played 20 minutes in the 102-88 loss to Florida in the final game.
Mark Sears leads the team with a 21.1 per game average. He was recently named a Wooden Award finalist. Sears had 30 points in the win over Charleston in the first round.
**************************************************************
- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): (5)San Diego St.+6, =(5)Saint Mary's+9
- Losses to tournament teams (1): (6)South Carolina-7
- Other losses (3): @Seattle-7, @Tarleton St.-3, @Abilene Christian-6
Overview: Grand Canyon's chart looks nothing like their namesake. Maybe a little bit at the end but for the most part, this is a reasonably predictable team. Their loss to 6-seed South Carolina and their win over 5-seed San Diego State (game 8) pretty much showed their range from bad to good. before the WAC season. In conference play the competition got a bit easier but they dropped a few games late in the year, before recovering to finish strong.
The Antelopes are led by 6-7 senior Tyon Grant-Foster who averages 19.8 points per game; he had 22 in the upset of St. Mary's.
**************************************************************
Game Analysis: Once again, Alabama is very erratic. That's enough to up the odds of getting upset. What else does Grand Canyon have on it's side?
There's hope even defense. The Tide are a great shooting team, but the Antelopes are very good at defending shots, especially the 2-pointer. Alabama shoots a lot of 3s and depends on 3s for scoring, so if those don't fall, things are good for the 'Lopes. Alabama also gets shots blocked a lot and Grand Canyon is good at that. And remarkably the Tide commits a lot of turnover; the Lopes cause a lot. Disrupt the Tide offense, steal the ball, block shots, it all adds up.
On offense Grand Canyon isn't a great shooting team but Alabama's defense is mediocre. They also foul a lot, and Grand Canyon gets fouled a lot, and shoots 75.4% from the line. Free throws alone could keep the Antelopes in the game.
Finally Grand Canyon is a solid offensive rebounding team, while Alabama is not great at defensive rebounding.
Add all this up—and ignore that the stats come from facing two very different cohorts of opponents (SOS #4 and SOS #195)—and Grand Canyon looks like the winner.
Vegas Line:
Alabama by 5 1/2
Power rating: spread
Alabama by 9.4
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Alabama: 69.1%
Grand Canyon: 30.9%
There's a disconnect between our power rating margin of 9.4 points and Alabama's 69% chance to win. Normally, a margin of 9.4 points would suggest an 80% chance to win. 69% is more like what you'd expect from 5 points—which is roughly the Vegas line. Vegas seems to be factoring in Alabama's erratic play and going off their real chances to win, rather than the average outcome.
4-seeds don't play 12-seeds very often, but when they do they win almost 69% of the time. Interesting.
Bottom line: We really thought 13-seed Charleston would upset the Tide, but they didn't. Now we're doubling down with Grand Canyon.
Final prediction: Grand Canyon 98, Alabama 89
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
Comments