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Illinois Fighting Illini
Seed: 3
Record: 27-8
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Duquesne Dukes
Seed: 11
Record: 25-11
Conference: Atlantic 10
Date: Saturday, March 23
Time: 8:40pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Omaha, NE
Channel: TNT
Two 26-8 teams, two very different seeds.
Illinois Duquesne
Power Ratings
Strength: #14 Strength: #86
Median: #16 Median: #81
Markov: #9 Markov: #76
Pomeroy: #10 Pomeroy: #82
Offense: #2 Offense: #158
Defense: #93 Defense: #29
BPI: #12 BPI: #89
LRMC: #9 LRMC: #69
Other Measures:
SOS: #25 SOS: #95
Tempo (Offense): #151 Tempo (Offense): #202
Consistency: #11 Consistency: #83
Str + Reliability: #3 Str + Reliability: #70
Str + Potential: #30 Str + Potential: #98
2nd half season: #12 2nd half season: #90
Last 6: #12 Last 6: #43
Injury Mod Rank: #15 Injury Mod Rank: #85
Tourney 4-year: #18 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #56
Illinois will be a strong favorite as a 3-seed now facing an 11-seed, but remember 11-seeds are dangerous even after the first round. The power ratings show a team bordering on the top 10 facing one that's not too far in side the top 100, but BYU was a strong 6-seed and Duquesne beat them. It's perhaps unfortunate for Duquesne that their strongest point—a defensive efficiency rating of #29—is matched up with Illinois' #2 offense. And that they can't take advantage of the Illini's poor defense the way many tournament team could, because their own offense is pretty shaky.
Nothing else stands out except that Illinois and Duquesne are both very consistent, the Illini incredibly so. That's more bad news for the Dukes, who want a downside outlier game from Illinois like they got from the much more erratic BYU.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): (14)Oakland+11, =(8)Florida Atlantic+9, (14)Colgate+17, (9)Northwestern+30, (9)Michigan St.+3, (8)Nebraska+OT, @(5)Wisconsin+8, =(8)Nebraska+11, =(5)Wisconsin+6, =(14)Morehead St.+16
- Losses to tournament teams (6): (2)Marquette-7, @(2)Tennessee-7, @(1)Purdue-5, @(9)Northwestern-OT, @(9)Michigan St.-8, (1)Purdue-6
- Other losses (2): Maryland-9, @Penn St.-1
Overview: How is this for a chart? Doesn't that just say, #11 in the nation in consistency? It's like a picket fence. A few aberrations, yes—like the 104-71 win over Fairleigh Dickinson which causes a spike in game 13, and the game 16 loss to Maryland at home, one of only two to non-tournament teams this year for the Illini. This is the chart of team that is consistent enough to not have a dud game kick them out of the tournament early.
Illinois is great on offense, but not nearly as great on the other side of the court. Four players average in double figures led by Terrence Shannon's 23.0 ppg. He had 26 against Morehead State in the opener.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): =(13)Charleston+18, (15)Saint Peter's+9, =(7)Dayton+8, =(6)BYU+4
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @(8)Nebraska-10, (7)Dayton-10, @(7)Dayton-16
- Other losses (8): Princeton-3, =Santa Clara-8, @Massachusetts-19, @Loyola Chicago-5, Richmond-2, @Saint Joseph's-2, Davidson-13, @Fordham-12
Overview: Duquesne hit a rough patch mid-season but if their recent play is any indication they have made their way out of the ditch. The Dukes are great on defense, causing turnovers, blocking shots, and holding teams to a low percentage, though they don't rebound all that effectively. The offense is a different story, though they do boast two players averaging over 15ppg each, Dae Dae Grant and Jimmy Clark III. Against BYU Grant led with 19.
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Game Analysis: Once again, uber-consistent Illinois faces another pretty consistent team. Is there a reason to think the outcome will deviate a lot from what is expected? Neither team plays a slow pace that would keep scoring in check and keep the game tighter. Duquesne has been playing very well lately, but Illinois hasn't slipped at all.
The offense and defense matchups definitely favor Illinois, who has the offensive play to thwart Duquesne's shut-down D, and enough defense themselves to take care of Duquesne's pretty inefficient offense.
Duquesne doesn't shoot the ball very well. Illinois is surprisingly good at defending the 2-point shot but not the 3, so there's an opening for the Dukes but they're pretty mediocre from the 3. They don't rebound well either and Illinois does. They don't have to worry much about turnovers though, as Illinois is #360 of 362 teams in steals.
Illinois shoots the ball very well, both 2s and 3s, but they're a pretty even match with Duquesne's defensive play there. The separator when Illinois has the ball is rebounding, where the Illini excel and the Dukes falter. Also Illinois will probably get to the foul line a lot, where they shoot 74.5%. Illinois does pretty much everything right on offense, and Duquesne only does most thing right on defense.
Vegas Line:
Illinois by 10 1/2
Power rating: spread
Illinois by 10.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Illinois: 81.6%
Duquesne: 18.4%
Interesting that the Vegas line matches our power rating's estimate; usually it's a bit lower, but I think the matchup falls so much to Illinois that they bumped it up a point or two. Looking that the percentages, that's due to both teams' Consistency. 3-seeds normally beat 11-seeds about 64% of the time (I told you, 11-seeds are dangerous) and here Illinois is over 80%.
Bottom line: Super-consistent Illinois is hard to bet again, especially when it's another consistent team. Unless Duquesne has some 11-seed magic up its sleeve the Illini will advance.
Final prediction: Illinois 81, Duquesne 70
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