All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Baylor Bears
Seed: 3
Record: 24-10
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Clemson Tigers
Seed: 6
Record: 22-11
Conference: ACC
Date: Sunday, March 24
Time: 6:10pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Memphis, TN
Channel: TNT
Bears vs. Tigers.
Baylor Clemson
Power Ratings
Strength: #10 Strength: #32
Median: #14 Median: #21
Markov: #13 Markov: #24
Pomeroy: #13 Pomeroy: #26
Offense: #5 Offense: #24
Defense: #74 Defense: #47
BPI: #13 BPI: #29
LRMC: #16 LRMC: #35
Other Measures:
SOS: #8 SOS: #33
Tempo (Offense): #273 Tempo (Offense): #156
Consistency: #48 Consistency: #251
Str + Reliability: #5 Str + Reliability: #39
Str + Potential: #21 Str + Potential: #32
2nd half season: #15 2nd half season: #40
Last 6: #24 Last 6: #50
Injury Mod Rank: #13 Injury Mod Rank: #31
Tourney 4-year: #8 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #35
Look for a lot of offense in this game; both defenses are well below 40 in Kenpom while both offenses are in the top 25. A somewhat slower tempo might temper the scoring, however. Clemson's inconsistency was on display against New Mexico—they played their best game of the season right after their worst defeat of the year. Which Clemson will show up Sunday?
Baylor is much more consistent though they haven't been quite as consistent lately nor playing their best.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(4)Auburn+6, =(7)Florida+4, (6)BYU+9, (2)Iowa St.+2, (6)Texas Tech+6, @(9)TCU+8, (4)Kansas+8, (7)Texas+8, =(14)Colgate+25
- Losses to tournament teams (9): @(9)Michigan St.-24, =(4)Duke-8, @(7)Texas-2, (9)TCU-OT, @(4)Kansas-3, @(6)BYU-7, (1)Houston-OT, @(6)Texas Tech-10, =(2)Iowa St.-14
- Other losses (1): @Kansas St.-OT
Overview: Baylor looked like the best team in the country early on, beating Auburn and Florida in a 9-0 start, but they ran into Michigan State, losing 88-64, then fell to Duke and the idea the Bears were the top team fizzled out. The question was could they be the top team in the Big Twelve, and even that was pretty tough to sell. The Bears started 3-0 including an overtime win at Oklahoma State, then lost three in a row (two in overtime) and in the end they were 11-7, which is great for the Big Twelve but not what the Bears wanted just a few years out from a national title. Their last three games included two duds, a 78-68 loss to Texas Tech and a 76-62 loss to Iowa State. They only lost to one team that missed the tournament—Kansas State, in overtime.
The Bears have a high-powered offense with six players averaging double figures, though Langston Love (11.0) has been out for a while. Ja'Kobe Walter leads with 14.2 points. Jalen Bridges had 23 points in the win over Colgate.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(12)UAB+1, (10)Boise St.+17, @(4)Alabama+8, (6)South Carolina+5, =(9)TCU+8, @(1)North Carolina+4, =(11)New Mexico+21
- Losses to tournament teams (4): (1)North Carolina-10, @(4)Duke-1, (10)Virginia-1, (11)N.C. State-1
- Other losses (7): @Memphis-2, @Miami FL-13, @Virginia Tech-15, Georgia Tech-OT, @Notre Dame-7, @Wake Forest-5, =Boston College-21
Overview: Clemson started 9-0 with wins over 12-seed UAB, 10-seed Boise State, 4-seed Alabama, almost-seeded Pitt, 6-seed South Carolina, and 9-seed TCU. In nine games! But they lost 7 of their next 12 games and their only other tourney-team win was when they beat 1-seed North Carolina 80-76 in Chapel Hill. In fact, that was their only win over a top 70 Pomeroy team other than Pitt in the calendar year 2024. They basically beat up on the bad ACC teams and lost to the good ones. Good thing they had that pre-conference schedule!
The Tigers are led on offense by center PJ Hall who scores 18.8 points per game and is 2nd with 6.7 rebounds. It was Chase Hunter who spearheaded the win over New Mexico with his 21 points.
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Game Analysis: Like we said, both teams are better on offense than the other team is on defense by about 50 rungs on the KenPom ladder. Should make for a lot of scoring.
Baylor has a top ten offense, and they shoot very well, nearly 40% on 3-pointers. Clemson defends the 2 better than the 3 so the Bears should find some success from behind the arc. They rebound very well and get to the free throw line a lot, where they shoot 74%. What can Clemson do on defense? They don't create turnovers, but they do block shots, and Baylor is vulnerable there. Will that be a game changer? Doesn't sound like it.
So Clemson may have to match Baylor's offense with their own. The Tigers are very good 2-point shooters and Baylor is weak there defensively. Normally Clemson shoots a lot of 3s, however, so we'll see if they adjust. They don't rebound that well or get to the line much, so hitting their field goals is imperative.
Vegas Line:
Baylor by 4 1/2
Power rating: spread
Baylor by 4.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Baylor: 60.7%
Clemson: 39.3%
Almost complete match with the Vegas line and our power rating. Baylor's 61% chance to win also matches the historical norm for a 3-seed taking on a 6-seed.
Bottom line: Both teams have the advantage when they have the ball. Baylor's advantage is a little more significant.
Final prediction: Baylor 77, Clemson 72
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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