All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Tennessee Volunteers
Seed: 2
Record: 25-8
Conference: SEC
vs.
Texas Longhorns
Seed: 7
Record: 21-12
Conference: Big Twelve
Date: Saturday, March 23
Time: 8:00 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Charlotte, NC
Channel: CBS
Tennessee and Texas both took care of business in the first round, who gets to the Sweet Sixteen?
Tennessee Texas
Power Ratings
Strength: #7 Strength: #25
Median: #7 Median: #31
Markov: #8 Markov: #41
Pomeroy: #7 Pomeroy: #27
Offense: #29 Offense: #19
Defense: #3 Defense: #61
BPI: #7 BPI: #22
LRMC: #8 LRMC: #38
Other Measures:
SOS: #14 SOS: #27
Tempo (Offense): #24 Tempo (Offense): #110
Consistency: #278 Consistency: #162
Str + Reliability: #11 Str + Reliability: #21
Str + Potential: #8 Str + Potential: #35
2nd half season: #6 2nd half season: #20
Last 6: #20 Last 6: #16
Injury Mod Rank: #8 Injury Mod Rank: #20
Tourney 4-year: #9 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #12
Tennessee is the obvious favorite here being the 2-seed and the power ratings back that up, as they're top ten everywhere, even top 5 in Defense while their offense flirts with the top 25. Texas is borderline top 25 in the rankings other than the Markov Chain inspired models (Markov and LRMC) where they lag quite a bit.
Both teams played a tough schedule and play a faster-than-normal pace on offense, especially the Volunteers, who are more inconsistent game-to-game than the Longhorns. The recent play or Last 6 indicator is amusing after the first game. Tennessee played great in their win but their best game—beating Texas A&M 86-51—was 7 games ago now, so their ranking fell to #20. Meanwhile Texas jumped from #33 to #16 because their worst game—losing to Kansas 86-67—fell off the Last 6. Both teams played very well in their first game and the Last Six is pretty arbitrary for both.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): @(5)Wisconsin+10, (3)Illinois+7, =(11)N.C. State+9, (7)Florida+19, (4)Alabama+20, @(3)Kentucky+11, (9)Texas A&M+35, (4)Auburn+8, @(4)Alabama+7, @(6)South Carolina+7, =(15)Saint Peter's+34
- Losses to tournament teams (8): =(1)Purdue-4, =(4)Kansas-9, @(1)North Carolina-8, @(8)Mississippi St.-5, (6)South Carolina-4, @(9)Texas A&M-16, (3)Kentucky-4, =(8)Mississippi St.-17
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Well, this chart almost gave me pause. I didn't like how it ended for Tennessee, a slow drop-off to the two losses, finishing in their worst performance of the season. Talk about ending on a bad note. They recovered from it with the opening win, but it sure shows wildly erratic play game to game, and losing in the first round of your conference championship is a red flag for Final Four advancement. But let's look at the good: 10 wins over tournament teams, and quite significantly, zero losses to non-tournament teams. Along the way Tennessee beat 3-seed Illinois, 3-seed Kentucky, and 4-seed Alabama and 4-seed Auburn twice each. They also lost to both 1-seeds they faced, Purdue and North Carolina.
Tennessee is better on defense (where they are elite) than on offense, but they're no slouch. Naismith short-lister Dalton Knecht averages 21.1 points per game and shoots almost 40% behind the 3-pt line. In the St. Peter's win Knecht had 23 on 4 of 8 3-point shooting.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): (3)Baylor+2, @(9)TCU+11, @(6)Texas Tech+12, =(10)Colorado St.+12
- Losses to tournament teams (9): =(1)Connecticut-10, @(2)Marquette-21, (6)Texas Tech-11, @(6)BYU-12, (1)Houston-OT, (2)Iowa St.-5, @(1)Houston-21, @(4)Kansas-19, @(3)Baylor-8
- Other losses (3): @West Virginia-3, UCF-6, =Kansas St.-4
Overview: Thanks to a majority cupcake pre-conference schedule, Texas was 11-2 with losses only to 1-seed UConn and 2-seed Marquette when the Big Twelve season started. Since then they're 9-10. They beat 3-seed Baylor, 6-seed Texas Tech, and 9-seed TCU, and lost to everyone else of import, plus West Virginia, UCF, and Kansas State who didn't make the cut. Not the greatest résumé in 7-seed history.
Texas's best games were when they were beating up on the little guy, like their 72-37 win over UNC Greensboro (game 12); the 75-60 road win at Oklahoma (game 19); 94-58 over WVU (24). They've struggled against better competition, just like their early season was a cupcake feast; the easy wins stopped when the Big Twelve season started.
Texas is led by Oral Roberts transfer Max Abmas, a 5th year senior who led the nation in scoring in 2021. This year he averages 17.1 points, one of four Longhorns in double figures. Against Colorado State Texas jumped to a 27-11 halftime lead and held on for a solid win; Abmas and Dylan Disu led with 12 points each.
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Game Analysis: Both teams played great in game 1, so they should be at their best for this next one. Texas is more reliable for that than Tennessee, who jumps around a lot in performance.
Texas shoots the ball well from anywhere but boy does Tennessee defend, especially the 2-point shot that is Texas' bread and butter. Tennessee's D also gets a lot of blocks and steals, things Texas is vulnerable to. The only things Tennessee does wrong on defense—not rebounding too well, and fouling a lot—are areas Texas is weak in on offense (rebounding, and getting to the line). Doesn't look good on this side of the ball matchup-wise, at least on paper.
Luckily for Texas the Volunteers aren't a great shooting team. They rebound well which is going to hurt the Longhorns, but they don't turn over the ball a lot and will probably get to the line more often than normal due to Texas' penchant to foul. Strangely, Texas' best bet is to go for steals. They're get a lot, and even though Tennessee doesn't turn the ball over much, that's due to an incredibly low non-steal turnover rate (6th best in the nation). Their steals-turnover rate is much higher (only average for D-I).
So it's a mixed bag for Texas when playing D, and it's going to be very rough for them when on offense.
Vegas Line:
Tennessee by 6 1/2
Power rating: spread
Tennessee by 5.8
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Tennessee: 66.1%
Texas: 33.9%
Interestingly the Vegas line is a bit wider than ours. Tennessee's 2/3 chance to win is roughly in line with the 70-ish percent that 2-seeds win historically over 7-seeds.
Bottom line: I had Tennessee in my bracket and see no reason to change now. The Volunteer D was built to shut down Texas and I think that's what happens, even if their offense struggles a bit too.
Final prediction: Tennessee 70, Texas 59
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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