All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Marquette Golden Eagles
Seed: 2
Record: 26-9
Conference: Big East
vs.
Colorado Buffaloes
Seed: 10
Record: 26-10
Conference: Pac-12
Date: Sunday, March 24
Time: 12:10pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Indianapolis, IN
Channel: CBS
The 2 vs. 10 matchups are always good, since the 10-seeds historically win a lot of them. And with play-in teams traditionally being dangerous 2nd round foes, this one could go either way.
Marquette Colorado
Power Ratings
Strength: #15 Strength: #24
Median: #10 Median: #27
Markov: #12 Markov: #25
Pomeroy: #12 Pomeroy: #26
Offense: #21 Offense: #25
Defense: #19 Defense: #42
BPI: #14 BPI: #44
LRMC: #10 LRMC: #22
Other Measures:
SOS: #6 SOS: #58
Tempo: #9 Tempo: #97
Consistency: #177 Consistency: #238
Str + Reliability: #12 Str + Reliability: #28
Str + Potential: #16 Str + Potential: #26
2nd half season: #10 2nd half season: #16
Last 6: #31 Last 6: #23
Injury Mod Rank: #11 Injury Mod Rank: #26
Tourney 4-year: #16 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #48
This is pretty even from a 2 vs. 10. Marquette is a decent 2-seed by the numbers but Colorado is a great 10-seed, and pretty incredible for a play-in team (of course 10-seeds are not usually play-in teams). Still, Marquette wins on paper as expected. There's a reasonable amount of inconsistency with the teams so what is shown "on paper" has quite a bit of variability.
The recent play numbers (Last 6) show an advantage for Colorado. But Marquette's Last 6 figures include 5 games where Tyler Kolek was out; their Injury Mod Rank of #11 is a more accurate assessment of the team's current abilities.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): @(3)Illinois+7, =(4)Kansas+14, (7)Texas+21, (3)Creighton+5, =(15)Western Kentucky+18
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =(1)Purdue-3, @(5)Wisconsin-11, @(1)Connecticut-28, @(3)Creighton-14, (1)Connecticut-7, =(1)Connecticut-16
- Other losses (3): @Providence-15, @Seton Hall-3, Butler-7
Overview: Marquette ended up with the #6 Strength of Schedule but only played 10 games against tournament teams. Blame the Selection Committee for excluding so many Big East teams for that. They beat 3-seed Illinois and 4-seed Kansas in the first five games of the year, then lost to Big Ten teams Wisconsin and Purdue. The latter was their first shot at beating a 1-seed; they got three more attempts vs. UConn and ended up 0-4.
The Eagles finished with a dismal 3-3 run, but 2nd-leading scorer Tyler Kolek (15.0ppg) missed all those games. Kam Jones is the #1 scorer for the Eagles with 16.8; both he and Kolek shoot over 40% from the 3-point line. Jones led with 28 in the first round win over Western Kentucky.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): (16)Grambling St.+32, (7)Washington St.+7, (11)Oregon+16, @(11)Oregon+4, =(7)Washington St.+6, =(10)Boise St.+7, =(7)Florida+2
- Losses to tournament teams (5): @(10)Colorado St.-5, @(2)Arizona-47, @(7)Washington St.-9, (2)Arizona-20, =(11)Oregon-7
- Other losses (5): =Florida St.-OT, @Arizona St.-3, @California-4, @Utah-5, @UCLA-4
Overview: Colorado played a pretty brief and easy non-conference schedule, losing to both FSU (77-71 in OT) in Dayton and 10-seed Colorado State in Ft. Collins. They scheduled Miami and beat them 90-63 in New York, but that win didn't age well. At the start of the Pac-12 season they lost bad three times, to Arizona, ASU, and Cal. They won four, then lost 4 of 5, then won 8 straight before losing to Oregon in the Pac-12 tournament final. They didn't beat any really good teams because they didn't beat Arizona, the only team over a 7-seed that they played. But that's still quite a run at the end, and beating Boise State is a solid win.
The Buffs have five players who average in double figures, led by KJ Simpson's 19.6 ppg; he adds 5.7 rebounds and 4.9 assists. Chibuzo Agbo led with 17 in the play-in win over Boise State, while Simpson paced the Buffaloes with 23 in the 102-100 first-round win over Florida.
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Game Analysis: The pace of the game should be pretty quick, as Marquette is one of the fastest teams and Colorado is quick too. Florida's tempo on offense is #17 and Colorado just beat them 102-100, so we can only guess that this game might be played just as fast. Although, Marquette only totaled 156 points with #1-tempo Western Kentucky so you never really know.
Colorado on offense is just as good as Marquette, but the Golden Eagle defense is a match for them too. The Buffs shoot very well and Marquette's defensive percentages are pretty poor for a top 20 defense, but they force turnovers at a high rate and Colorado is pretty vulnerable there. If Colorado gets their shots off though they can win; they're #6 in the nation in 3-point shooting.
Marquette might have to win the game on the offensive side if Colorado gets hot. They're also a great shooting team, particularly on 2-point shots where Colorado's D is lacking. The Buffs specialize in rebounding on defense, not blocks, steals, or particularly good shot defense, though they defend the 3 pretty well.
Vegas Line:
Marquette by 3 1/2
Power rating: spread
Marquette by 2.8
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Marquette: 59.3%
Colorado: 40.7%
Vegas takes Marquette by a bit more than our power rating. Their nearly 60% chance to win is roughly the same as the ~64% rate at which 2-seeds beat 10-seeds (they do slightly better against 7-seeds).
The over/under for the game is 146.5, despite Colorado's 202 point affair with Florida on Friday.
Bottom line: I have Marquette winning as they get more comfortable having Kolek back. I'm going for a slightly higher score than Vegas though; if Colorado gets hot, as I said, Marquette is going to have to beat them with offense, and Colorado has been hot lately.
Final prediction: Marquette 92, Colorado 88
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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