All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Iowa State Cyclones
Seed: 2
Record: 28-7
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Washington State Cougars
Seed: 7
Record: 25-9
Conference: Pac-12
Date: Saturday, March 23
Time: 6:10pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Omaha, NE
Channel: TNT
Washington State beat one semi-local team in Omaha, now they face another.
Iowa State Washington St.
Power Ratings
Strength: #6 Strength: #41
Median: #6 Median: #47
Markov: #5 Markov: #35
Pomeroy: #5 Pomeroy: #42
Offense: #53 Offense: #64
Defense: #2 Defense: #27
BPI: #6 BPI: #42
LRMC: #6 LRMC: #32
Other Measures:
SOS: #40 SOS: #79
Tempo (Offense): #144 Tempo (Offense): #261
Consistency: #288 Consistency: #209
Str + Reliability: #8 Str + Reliability: #43
Str + Potential: #6 Str + Potential: #40
2nd half season: #4 2nd half season: #21
Last 6: #3 Last 6: #46
Injury Mod Rank: #7 Injury Mod Rank: #40
Tourney 4-year: #14 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #46
Iowa State was very nearly a 1-seed; almost everything fell into line for it to happen. But they were still the #2 team in the Big Twelve and the Committee went with North Carolina. ISU's profile is very much a 1-seed profile. Top six in all the power ratings, #2 in defensive efficiency (they were #1 at the start of the tournament, already slipped a spot) Their one weakness is Offense, where they are just outside the top 50. And they are a bit inconsistent, but that's related to their offense.
Washington State doesn't have quite the same profile; their offense is almost as good as Iowa State's, and they play solid defense just not up to the Cyclones' level. And they have to play Iowa State in Omaha, a few hours away from the Ames campus. But they already beat Drake (Des Moines, IA) at the same location. Can they take out both the close-to-hometown teams?
- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): (16)Grambling St.+55, (1)Houston+4, @(9)TCU+1, (4)Kansas+4, @(7)Texas+5, (9)TCU+12, (6)Texas Tech+8, (6)BYU+5, =(3)Baylor+14, =(1)Houston+28, =(15)South Dakota St.+17
- Losses to tournament teams (4): =(9)Texas A&M-4, @(6)BYU-15, @(3)Baylor-2, @(1)Houston-8
- Other losses (3): =Virginia Tech-9, @Oklahoma-8, @Kansas St.-7
Overview: Iowa State demonstrated elite defense from the start, the question was would their offense catch up at all? It didn't but that's because their defense went to #1 on Kenpom. They were blowing out overmatched opponents early in the season but when they handed Houston its first loss, people started to wake up to the Cyclones. Still, they went back to sleep until the final wake up call: Iowa State 69, Houston 41, a literal off-the-charts performance.
So what does this mean? I've been comparing it to Xavier's beatdown of #1 St. Joe's in 2004. Xavier ended up feeding off the game and made it to the Elite Eight as a 7-seed. Iowa State is obviously still capable of breakdowns on offense that lead to bad losses (like Kansas State recently). And cockiness might become an issue. Iowa State has a history of losing as a high seed. Though clearly known for their defense, Iowa State has four starters in double figures led by Keshon Gilbert's 13.8ppg. Forward Milan Momcilovic led with 19 against South Dakota State.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): (16)Grambling St.+18, (10)Boise St.+5, (2)Arizona+3, (10)Colorado+9, @(11)Oregon+6, @(2)Arizona+3, =(10)Drake+5
- Losses to tournament teams (4): =(8)Mississippi St.-12, @(10)Colorado-7, (11)Oregon-5, =(10)Colorado-6
- Other losses (5): =Santa Clara-8, @Utah-22, @California-OT, @Arizona St.-12, Washington-6
Overview: Washington State won a lot of games early on against really easy competition, losing to 8-seed Mississippi State in Connecticut and to Santa Clara in Phoenix, but they did beat 10-seed Boise State before the Pac-12 season began. The Cougars started 1-3 in conference play but they beat Arizona 73-70 (game 11). Losing to Cal in overtime deflated their high temporarily, but after that, from game 20 to game 27, they were unstoppable. From the January 24 win over Utah (79-57) to their 2nd win over Arizona (this time in Tempe) the Cougars were one of the nation's top teams.
But then they fell to Arizona State, and twice more (to Washington and then Colorado in the Pac-12 tournament), and the shine had faded a bit. The comeback win over Drake in the first round of the NCAA tournament was just what they needed.
Washington State is led by 6-9 F Isaac Jones in both scoring (15.4ppg) and rebounding (7.4). He had 20 against Drake.
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Game Analysis: Washington State and Iowa State are both a bit inconsistent, which should give the Cougars hope that they might have an upside outing and the Cyclones play subpar.
Iowa State forces a LOT of turnovers (#2 in the nation) and Washington State is not a great shooting team; the Cougars need to hang on to the ball and get rebounds, which is their strong point. The Cyclones don't shoot much better, and Washington State has the rebounding edge there, too. The Cougars have a path to victory if they can win the rebounding game significantly, and force ISU to have a bad day offensively.
Vegas Line:
Iowa State by 7 1/2
Power rating: spread
Iowa State by 8.1 / 11.0
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Iowa State: 69.7% / 76.3%
Washington St.: 30.3% / 23.7%
It looks like Vegas is giving Iowa State about a point of home court advantage, since they're usually about 1.5 points lower than the Strength win margin estimate and they're only a half-point down. We have the Cyclones by 8 or 11, depending on where in that range you think home court advantage falls, and with a 70 to 76% chance to win. 2-seeds normally beat 7-seeds around 70% of the time, so this is right on track.
Bottom line: I thought this would be a battle of the Iowa schools but Washington State spoiled that. I still think the Cyclones advance, however.
Final prediction: Iowa State 68, Washington State 64
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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