All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Arizona Wildcats
Seed: 2
Record: 26-8
Conference: Pac-12
vs.
Dayton Flyers
Seed: 7
Record: 25-7
Conference: Atlantic 10
Date: Saturday, March 23
Time: 12:45pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Salt Lake City, UT
Channel: CBS
A really cool 2nd round matchup from teams who won consistently this year, but only one of the two can be called "consistent"
Arizona Dayton
Power Ratings
Strength: #2 Strength: #43
Median: #1 Median: #61
Markov: #7 Markov: #42
Pomeroy: #6 Pomeroy: #32
Offense: #8 Offense: #18
Defense: #12 Defense: #87
BPI: #5 BPI: #32
LRMC: #3 LRMC: #42
Other Measures:
SOS: #21 SOS: #85
Tempo (Offense): #8 Tempo (Offense): #299
Consistency: #361 Consistency: #22
Str + Reliability: #15 Str + Reliability: #19
Str + Potential: #1 Str + Potential: #67
2nd half season: #8 2nd half season: #50
Last 6: #18 Last 6: #68
Injury Mod Rank: #3 Injury Mod Rank: #45
Tourney 4-year: #15 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #47
Arizona is really one of the best teams in the country, ranking #2 in Strength with a Median performance ranked #1. They're in the top 5 in BPI and LRMC, and #6 in Pomeroy. They're a tough 2-seed, that's for sure. What kept them from being a 1-seed was their inconsistency, which ranks almost dead last—or rather, their Consistency is 2nd to last. They're #2 in Inconsistency! This means that they might be a borderline Sweet Sixteen team if they play erratically, or if they play their best they can win it all.
Dayton, however, is one of the most consistently good teams in the country. They're not as good as Arizona—the lag well behind on every power rating and modifer—except when Arizona is bad. This game depends on how Arizona does, because Dayton's unlikely to have a dud game. If the Wildcats aren't feeling it, the Flyers will take advantage.
The Flyers are competitive with Arizona when they have the ball; there is little discrepancy between Dayton's offensive play and Arizona's on D. Where the Wildcats look to have the big advantage is on the other side of the court, where Dayton is vulnerable. The game is also a clash of tempos, with Arizona running one of the fastest offenses and Dayton taking things much slower. Neither team has been at their best recently, either in the 2nd half of the season or very recent play, but they both took care of business in the first round so let's just enjoy a great matchup.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): @(4)Duke+5, =(9)Michigan St.+6, (14)Colgate+27, (5)Wisconsin+25, (4)Alabama+13, (10)Colorado+47, @(11)Oregon+9, @(10)Colorado+20, (11)Oregon+20, =(15)Long Beach St.+20
- Losses to tournament teams (5): @(1)Purdue-8, =(8)Florida Atlantic-OT, @(7)Washington St.-3, (7)Washington St.-3, =(11)Oregon-8
- Other losses (3): @Stanford-18, @Oregon St.-3, @USC-13
Overview: Arizona started out like gangbusters, beating Duke and Michigan State, then adding Wisconsin and Alabama to their skins list while playing well in lossses to 1-seed Purdue and last year's Final Four team Florida Atlantic. Just 11 games in and the Wildcats had played more good teams than most do in a whole season! But then the erratic play started, as they lost to Stanford 100-81. Of course they followed that by beating Colorado and Utah by a combined 46 points. When they won it was fantastic, but the surprise losses—to Oregon State, twice to Washington State—added up despite continued huge margins when they won. Their last three games tells the whole story: a 78-65 loss to USC, then a 70-49 win over USC, and a 67-59 loss to Oregon.
Arizona plays fast on offense and shoots the three well but not excessively; they have four players in double figures led by UNC transfer Caleb Love's 18.1ppg. Arizona's first round game saw the "good" version of the team, maybe not great, but they avoided the "dud" game in beating Long Beach State; Kylan Boswell led with 20 points with all five starters in double figures.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): (16)Grambling St.+30, (14)Oakland+24, (16)Longwood+9, @(11)Duquesne+10, (11)Duquesne+16, =(10)Nevada+3
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @(9)Northwestern-5, =(1)Houston-14, =(11)Duquesne-8
- Other losses (4): @Richmond-5, @VCU-2, @George Mason-4, @Loyola Chicago-5
Overview: Dayton hasn't beaten a tournament team that isn't a double-digit seed, and their first-round win over Nevada doesn't change that. But they played pretty well against 1-seed Houston in South Carolina; they were never really in it but it didn't get ugly. From the chart we can easily see why Dayton's Median Strength ranking is so low: the median essentially "shaves" off those higher points from the chart, and with this kind of distribution the median average is going to be lower than the mean average.
Dayton looked set to run through the Atlantic 10 but the losses became more frequent and they ended in third place, exiting in the first round of the A10 tournament to eventual champ Duquesne. This is reflected in their "2nd half of season" and "Last 6 games" rating taking a notable dip. But they sure are consistent; even when losing, they don't lose bad. Naismith Trophy semi-finalist DaRon Holmes leads the team in points (20.4) and rebounds (8.4).
Dayton had one of the great March Madness comebacks in their first-round game; down 56-39 with 7 minutes left, they scored the next 17 points to tie the game and went on to win; Holmes led with 18 points.
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Game Analysis: As I mentioned above, it's up to Arizona to determine who wins this game. If they have a dud game, Dayton wins, because Dayton plays like Dayton. At least, game by game. as we can see from the Nevada game, there are two Daytons as well, the one that got behind 56-39 and the one that went on a tear to win that game.
Dayton's problem in this game is that, against Arizona's offense, there probably won't be any 17-0 runs. The Wildcats have top ten offensive play, and Dayton's defense is not up to that standard. Arizona not only shoots well but rebounds very well, a tough combination to beat.
But Dayton is #3 in 3-point shooting, which shows how they can go on the kind of run they got against Nevada. 12 of their 17 points in that run came from 3-pointers, and another 3 put them ahead for the first time in the 2nd half. Arizona is fairly vulnerable to 3-point shots, too, so this is the path Dayton is going to have to take: make their threes.
Vegas Line:
Arizona by 9 1/2
Power rating: spread
Arizona by 10.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Arizona: 75.3%
Dayton: 24.7%
Arizona's line is almost exactly what we would have expected given the Strength power rating's 10.9 point margin. Arizona's 3/4 odds are a bit better than the historical ~70% for 2-seeds vs. 7-seeds.
Bottom line: Dayton has a fighting chance with their 3-point shooting, so don't ever count them out. Also Arizona could lay an egg, but I think they've gotten those out of the way for a while, and Dayton has to be exhausted after fighting off Nevada.
Final prediction: Arizona 82, Dayton 77
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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