All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
NC State Wolfpack
Seed: 11
Record: 23-14
Conference: ACC
vs.
Oakland Golden Grizzlies
Seed: 14
Record: 24-11
Conference: Horizon
Date: Saturday, March 23
Time: 7:10pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Channel: TBS/truTV
Every tournament it seems like there's a double-digit vs. double-digit seed matchup in the 2nd round.
NC State Oakland
Power Ratings
Strength: #56 Strength: #129
Median: #68 Median: #122
Markov: #46 Markov: #122
Pomeroy: #55 Pomeroy: #130
Offense: #46 Offense: #124
Defense: #77 Defense: #157
BPI: #50 BPI: #126
LRMC: #50 LRMC: #107
Other Measures:
SOS: #57 SOS: #146
Tempo (Offense): #102 Tempo (Offense): #307
Consistency: #18 Consistency: #196
Str + Reliability: #36 Str + Reliability: #135
Str + Potential: #86 Str + Potential: #132
2nd half season: #48 2nd half season: #121
Last 6: #11 Last 6: #185 (195)
Injury Mod Rank: #61 Injury Mod Rank: #136
Tourney 4-year: #42 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #63
NC State finds itself in the 2nd round and now the favorite of the power ratings, now outranking their opponent across the board. Their numbers have improved a bit after their upset win, and they're now #50 in the BPI (they were already #50 in the LRMC, who often seems to be one step ahead). Oakland's ratings are better too after beating Kentucky but still over 100.
Last game, Oakland essentially leveraged their own inconsistency and Kentucky's added to it, but now they're facing a very consistent team—and one that's on a roll. Over the last 6 games (updated) NC State is playing like a top ten team, while Oakland is still below par even for themselves (they were #195 before beating Kentucky). NC State's win over Texas Tech rates higher than Oakland's, so even a 1-game sample doesn't give them the upset.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): (10)Virginia+16, @(6)Clemson+1, =(4)Duke+5, =(10)Virginia+OT, =(1)North Carolina+8, =(6)Texas Tech+13
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =(6)BYU-9, =(2)Tennessee-9, (1)North Carolina-13, @(10)Virginia-OT, @(1)North Carolina-9, (4)Duke-15
- Other losses (8): @Mississippi-20, Virginia Tech-6, @Syracuse-12, Pittsburgh-3, @Wake Forest-4, Syracuse-4, @Florida St.-7, @Pittsburgh-8
Overview: NC State was a good team all year—good, not great, and not really threatening to most teams. They played a really easy non-conference schedule and lost to all the decent teams they faced (BYU, Ole Miss, Tennessee). They picked up early ACC wins over B.C. and Virginia, though, so in conference play they looked like a potential thorn. For the most part they continued to lose to good teams, culminating in a 4-game skid at the end that destroyed any hope they had of an at-large bid. So instead, they suddenly became a great team and beat Louisville, Syracuse, 4-seed Duke, 10-seed Virginia, and 1-seed North Carolina in a five day span. It's not quite like UConn of 2009 (who won 5 straight to win the Big East, beating a 6-seed, 1-seed, 3-seed, and 4-seed along the way) but it's pretty close. So while we don't expect a national title out of the Wolfpack, history suggests there could be more good things to come.
DJ Horne leads four starters in double figures for the 'Pack, but against Texas Tech it was reserve Ben Middlebrooks leading with 21 points; he made 6 of 8 shots and 9 of 10 free throws.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): =(3)Kentucky+4
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @(3)Illinois-11, =(10)Drake-8, @(9)Michigan St.-17, @(7)Dayton-24
- Other losses (7): @Ohio St.-6, Purdue Fort Wayne-21, Toledo-1, @Cleveland St.-8, @Green Bay-10, @Northern Kentucky-OT, Wright St.-21
Overview: Oakland didn't beat any teams in the field in the regular season, and their last (and only) NCAA tournament win dated back to 2005. But they faced a lot of tournament teams, with 3-seed Illinois and 10-seed Drake in the first four games. The tough schedule continued with 9-seed Michigan State and 6-seed Dayton both losses, though they did beat Xavier on the road 78-76 in that stretch to get a Major conference win. Their Horizon schedule was much more forgiving and the Grizzlies went 15-5. In mid-to-late February it really looked like they were pulling away but then a 21-point home loss to Wright State slowed their momentum, though they did enough to win the Horizon tournament and get the auto-bid. And now they have the first NCAA tournament win in school history.
Forward Trey Townshend leads the team in points (16.9), rebounds (7.8), assists (3.1), and steals (1.3). Oakland starts a shorter lineup where the 6-6 Townshend is the 2nd tallest on the court. Against Kentucky, Jack Gohlke came of the bench to hit 10 of 20 three point shots, ending with 32 points and immediately reminding people of Kevin Pittsnogle from the 2005 tournament, both due to his hard-to-spell name and 3-point prowess.
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Game Analysis: The Wolfpack are the clear better team for the first time since they played Louisville in the first game of the ACC tournament, and on both sides of the court. Neither team is elite on offense or defense, however. On offense NC State isn't a great shooting team and doesn't shoot a lot of 3s. Nor do they rebound well but they rarely turn it over.
Oakland will want to speed things up on offense, and hopefully Gohlke will hit his threes again (NC State has worse 3-point defense than Kentucky). If he doesn't, then it's all up to Trey Townshend but NC State has the height advantage underneath.
Vegas Line:
NC State by 5 1/2
Power rating: spread
NC State by 7.7
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Oakland: 28.3%
NC State: 71.7%
North Carolina State find themselves the favorite in the 2nd round. Their 72% chance to win is 28% lower than the historical average for 11-seeds vs. 14-seeds because it's only happened 4 times and the 11-seed won every game.
Bottom line: NC State is really on an extended roll—I had them beating Kentucky here, but Kentucky isn't here—meanwhile I think Oakland's roll was a 1-shot deal (or a 3-point barrage deal). In any case NC State's win was more impressive, so I think the Strength power rating margin is a minimum.
Final prediction: NC State 81, Oakland 65
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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