All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
UConn Huskies
Seed: 1
Record: 32-3
Conference: Big East
vs.
Northwestern Wildcats
Seed: 9
Record: 22-11
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Sunday, March 24
Time: 7:45pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Channel: truTV
Now's the time for UConn to prove they are not Villanova of 2017.
UConn Northwestern
Power Ratings
Strength: #3 Strength: #49
Median: #3 Median: #58
Markov: #1 Markov: #31
Pomeroy: #1 Pomeroy: #46
Offense: #2 Offense: #30
Defense: #11 Defense: #72
BPI: #2 BPI: #39
LRMC: #1 LRMC: #48
Other Measures:
SOS: #61 SOS: #52
Tempo (Offense): #295 Tempo (Offense): #326
Consistency: #293 Consistency: #249
Str + Reliability: #4 Str + Reliability: #59
Str + Potential: #3 Str + Potential: #49
2nd half season: #1 2nd half season: #26
Last 6: #1 Last 6: #37
Injury Mod Rank: #1 Injury Mod Rank: #50
Tourney 4-year: #1 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #26
Not much to say here: UConn is good and probably getting better; they're only #3 in Strength but are #1 for the 2nd half of the season and the Last 6 Games too. They're #1 in Pomeroy and LRMC, as well as our Markov Chain. They're still #2 in BPI to Houston, but they took over as the #1 offense in Pomeroy temporarily (it was Alabama most of the season, became UConn by Selection Sunday, now it's Illinois) and they're a solid #11 on defense now. All of those are Final Four worthy and indeed National Champ worthy figures, and guess what? They're the defending champs.
Next opponent on their quest to repeat? Big Ten lapdog Northwestern. Now, that may sound odd today since Northwestern finished tied for 2nd in the Big Ten, but for much of the last five decades Northwestern was the perennial cellar dweller of the Big Ten, and this is only the school's 2nd appearance in the NCAA tournament. A big contrast to UConn. What do they have in common? A slow tempo, and inconsistency, the two best breeding grounds for an upset.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(7)Texas+10, =(1)North Carolina+11, @(5)Gonzaga+13, (3)Creighton+14, (2)Marquette+28, @(2)Marquette+7, =(2)Marquette+16, =(16)Stetson+39
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @(4)Kansas-4, @(3)Creighton-19
- Other losses (1): @Seton Hall-15
Overview: Just like we noted with Marquette, the Big East teams are going to show very few tournament wins because all the Big East teams got left out. It's basically the Big East Big Three and whoever you played in non-conference, so a 1-seed like UConn has just seven big wins. One of those was 1-seed North Carolina though, and 5-seed Gonzaga is always impressive. They lost to 4-seed Kansas, and even to Seton Hall (one of the bracket-busted Big East teams).
UConn is looking to repeat as champs and everyone is falling over themselves comparing them to 2007 Florida, but as I've said, the danger is them resembling 2017 Villanova. The 2017 Wildcats, trying to repeat their 2016 championship, entered the 2nd round 32-3 and lost to 8-seed Wisconsin. Will UConn fall in the 2nd round to a middle-seeded Big Ten team as well?
The Huskies are led by Tristen Newton's 15.2 ppg and four others average in double figures. Donovan Clingan scored 20 points in UConn's 91-52 first round win over Stetson.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): (7)Dayton+5, (1)Purdue+OT, (9)Michigan St.+14, (3)Illinois+OT, (8)Nebraska+12, =(8)Florida Atlantic+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (7): =(8)Mississippi St.-9, @(3)Illinois-30, @(5)Wisconsin-8, @(8)Nebraska-6, @(1)Purdue-OT, @(9)Michigan St.-4, =(5)Wisconsin-9
- Other losses (4): Chicago St.-2, @Minnesota-OT, @Rutgers-3, Iowa-7
Overview: Northwestern jumped on everyone's radar when they played an early Big Ten game—December 1st!—and beat Purdue in overtime. They'd already beatend 7-seed Dayton and would beat Michigan State 88-74. But they also lost to Chicago State (#302 Kenpom) and fell to Illinois by 30 points. From there, though, the Wildcats have been pretty great, win or lose. Still inconsistent, they took Purdue to overtime again, then lost in overtime at Minnesota. They also beat Illinois in overtime. They tend to play just about everyone pretty close.
Boo Buie leads the team with 19.2 points on average, with four Wildcats scoring in double figures. Northwestern won a very wild overtime game with Florida Atlantic, 77-65, with Ryan Langborg scoring 27.
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Game Analysis: What chance does Northwestern have other than luck? Good luck for them and bad luck for the Huskies? Not much. If it goes like it should on paper the Wildcats lose pretty badly. UConn's last 8 performances are all at a pretty incredibly high level. If they play like that, Northwestern has about a 5% chance to win.
The Wildcats do have an unusual, disruptive style of play. That helps but isn't enough on its own. UConn is playing so well, and Northwestern so unheralded, that the Huskies might get overconfident. Again, not enough on its own but adds to the soup.
Vegas Line:
UConn by 14 1/2
Power rating: spread
UConn by 12.0
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
UConn: 78.7%
N'western: 21.3%
Again, UConn's Vegas spread is bigger than our power ratings's margin. In terms of odds to win, we have UConn slightly under the historical 81% chance for the 1-seed to beat an 8-seed, and well under the 92% chance a 1-seed has against a 9-seed. Thats due to both teams' inconsistent play. A 21% chance to win isn't much, but it isn't negligible or something that can be ignored by any means.
Bottom line: Northwestern wins. Reason? March Madness. If UConn wins, they prove they are not Villanova of 2017, and maybe they really are 2007 Florida.
Final prediction: Northwestern 63, UConn 62
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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